AFL/NRL Handicapping

[sando]

I was thinking maybe with so many gun's in the more sports sub-thread we should share some of our favourite tools/websites/program's etc in regards to your methodology for handicapping AFL & NRL.

Ill start the ball rolling with a couple of my essentials each week. Personally I love podcasts. I watch the shows and read the media and have my favourite websites for stats, etc however I never even think about my plays in either sport until I have listened to my favourite podcasts each week.

AFL - Mondayitis (by Sportal) Available for free download on I-tunes (or Sportal website) usually late Monday Arvo each week. About 1 hour show, very knowledgeable guys. They review the games from the w/e just gone and then preview the upcoming round. My favourite opinion/analysis on AFL (other than David King - AFL Insider) They are way too biased towards the Roos's and Tigers and they hate the Blues (you have been warned).

NRL - NRL Unleashed (by Sportal) Available for free on I-tunes (or Sportal website), although a bit more erratic than Mondayitis when it is uploaded. Usually available by Wednesday at the latest. Good podcast - basically Sportal's NRL version of Mondayitis. Very passionate guys - love their league.

NRL - This week in league (or the week in league) by Podcast Mafia. Insane show. Usually 2-2.5 hours and free download on I-tunes available by Tuesday usually. 2 guys who are quite knowledgeable on NRL and very very funny, I mean genuine comedians. Ton's of profanity, so not for the faint hearted. There isn't much they don't cover, including of course a review of last week's games and a preview of the upcoming round. Just listen to 1 episode and you will be hooked, especially if (like me) you grew up watching league in the 80's as they constantly reference old players and teams. They swear a lot and crack a ton of jokes however these guys are very knowledgable on league and have a massive following. Listen to it on the way to and from work and the journey home will fly.

Hopefully some others will share some of their "trade secrets" in here...?

[Gee]

Sportal is pretty decent.

For historical results, I look at lot at finalsiren.com and stats.rleague.com.

The AFL forums at realfooty.com can have a lot of information. Also watch a lot of foxfooty (afl360, league teams, on the couch, insider).

Checking twitter. Checking betfair for a rough idea where the money is going.

Keeping track of lines and making notes for the weekend daily.

Watching as many games as you can.

[Coopertrooper]

I watch a fair bit of Fox Footy, and really like using stats.rleague or footywire for AFL stats.

Outside of that and social media, there is always plenty of news to catch up on and weather reports/radars to look at over the weekend. I tend not to be too influenced by team changes for results, only totals (Ablett is about the only player I seriously move lines in my head for, other guys maybe by 3 points or less). I also check the line movements to see where the money is going.

Don't really use many tools/programmes other than Excel, which is so simple to learn and use in a variety of ways. Might consider stats software (Eviews, Stata, etc.) down the track, but most of the good one's are pricey, and hard to justify just for sports betting (and require a fair bit of study with stats).

[sando]

I was hoping you two guys would check in. Gee how would I go about "checking twitter" I'm not up to date with that sort of stuff, but I definitely see the advantage. For example I wanted to know if Nigel Plum would be fit for the Panthers this w/e so I googled "bash brothers" (he and Adam Docker make up the bash bro's for Penrith) and found they have their own facebook page, I went to it and found that Plum himself posted this morning saying that he wants to play but the team will not clear him. Literally straight from the horse's mouth...

[Gee]

Well you need an account set up to follow the clubs and main news sites.

It is good because it is so up to date and has information that takes a while to get to print.

Checking twitter is a bit like a google search and it is worth just typing the two teams names (individually or separately) to check if any late news. In that search, you'll also see if any of the bookies have tweeted about major action on the game, weather etc. It is good, because sometimes theres something obvious you might have missed. As you use it more, you'll have a better idea whats is there and how to find it.

And yup, if you're worried about the fitness of a player, twitter is usually onto it well before anything else.

I didn't use it a few years ago, but I've realized it as good a resource as any for information.

[the tross]

I listen graham Hughes(just his opinion) on talkin sport 2SM radio network . The mans a legend, well respected and knows his nrl.. He also tips some good horses too, not that im into that.

[OZnBa Fan]

Twitter and Facebook are prime examples for sports news first as there are pages and pages or people you can follow with up to date news.

[s2230011]

I listen to 2sm till six then switch over to sports today on 2ue. Plus the Big Sports Breakfast in the morning.
Nothing to do with capping or analysing games, they are just good fun sports talk shows. Sports today with Gibsy and Brandy I think is the best quality, just tune out when Vossey is on on Mondays.
2sm have a betting league segment at 5 on Fridays. The guy from Reading the Play is on and he is not bad

[brettels]

AFL - Herald Sun

[brettels]

Mainly AFL but also a bit of everything else - SEN1116 radio

[brettels]

nrl.com match previews are still a good read in comparison to the new style of match previews these days at afl.com.au

[brettels]

AFL - www.afl.com.au

https://www.sen.com.au

https://www.sportal.com.au

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum

https://www.heraldsun.com.au

https://www.theage.com.au

Rugby League

https://www.nrl.com

https://www.sportal.com.au

www.heraldsun.com.au (not as good as it is for AFL, but still some informative stuff to read)


They are all I use as well as what gee said about betfair.

[MrXYZ]

I like The Roar for their articles & weekly round previews. An excellent read, with brief rundowns of each game with the main facts and angles to think about (what the average punter will have on their minds when they bet)

Like Gee pointed out, Twitter is absolutely vital for up to date info, you can follow every team and a number of players are on it as well. It's also the best for live game coverage when away from a screen. Each game has a hashtag eg #NRLcanmel and you get al sorts of people giving you play by play commentary. All the aussie books are on there as well and their tweets are useful too, they post about line moves and where the money is going.

I don't use any stats software, I'm more of a situational capper than a stats guy. Tend to spend a fair bit of time checking lines though.