Lordkai35's NRL/AFL Pick

[lordkai35]

Hey guys, been lurking for a while and finally decided to post up my tips on NRL/AFL

Ill try to provide some explanation/write up for tips

i tend to focus on prop/statistic markets and line markets

hope to be part of the community

[Domestic]

lord, you are already a part of the community. Best of luck on your picks.

[lordkai35]

NRL
Panther/Knights

1x Tim Grant over 51.5 supercoach points ($1.88 Sportsbet)
-Panthers are without Nigel Plum, one of two key forwards who is injured. Grant will get more minutes and workload in Plum's absence. Grant scored 72 SC points against the knights in their last encounter which was low scoring 8-6 allowing the forwards to get more hitups/tackles, no stoppages. Expecting a similar type of game.

Manly/Titans

1x Jorge Taufua over 130.5 metres ($1.70 Sportsbet)
-Manly are in good form and are versing inferior teams. Titans are without workhorse Myles and attacking weapon Bird. The titans right side defence is very weak conceding a hattrick to the opposite winger a fortnight ago. Taufua has made 200+m in his last two games when the scoreline has been a blowout and based on Manly's current form, playing at home, versing a depleted/starless titans team it will be a blowout.

[lordkai35]

1-1
-0.12Units

[aussieH]

Welcome aboard. Solin analysis.

[lordkai35]

thx mate, couldn't get a 2-0 start with taufua letting us down.

[lordkai35]

NRL
Souths/Dragons

1x Andrew Everingham over 80.5 metres ($1.87 Luxbet)
-With the absence of Inglis, Merrit/hunt play FB but they will not take all the kick returns. St george's kicking game is pretty bad with untested Quinlan playing 5/8th. Everingham made 83m and 112m respectively in rounds 12,15 in inglis absence. in the past 3 games against the dragons 5/6 wingers made over 80.5 against them with the only exception of SKD who played out of position.

1x Mitch Rein over 34.5 tackles ($1.75 sportsbet)
- No hooker on bench, he will play 80min, expect souths to get more possession at home, Merrin starting on bench, no tackling workhorses starting.

[gimps_77]

Tailing with everingham

[sando]

Welcome. The more NRL heads in here, the better...

[gimps_77]

Pitty,
Everingham touches the ball once in the 2nd half for 8 metres

[lordkai35]

2-2 -0.37units

we were looking good first half but everingham touched the ball once in 2nd half

[lordkai35]

just looking at future markets.

jamie lyon most points this season $10
david simmons top tryscorer $6
(both @sportsbet)

lyon is 12 points behind leader a reynolds $2, he has a better home run with more bottom 8 teams and is much more likely to score tries than reynolds. i srsly think $10 is way overs. the other contender is maloney $2 who is 8 points ahead of lyon but also has a poor run home.

simmons is on 15 tries one behind mcmanus 16 with taufua and hoffman (14each) not far behind. taufua has the best run home and followed by simmons. however simmons seems to score even in games where its low total points or in losing games and is fairly consistent whereas mcmanus/taufua will only score in blowouts or winning games. they are not very consistent mcmanus scoring 4 tries in a blowout and taufua 3 a couple of weeks ago. i think simmons at $6 is overs

please give me your thoughts.

[lordkai35]

early leans:

NRL

cowboys -3.5 (PYOL)
dogs -18.5 (PYOL)
raiders
titans +8.5
warriors/storm under 38.5
roosters -3.5
manly 13+

AFL

Melb +58.5
collingwood -86.5
collingwood 100+
fremantle 1-39
port adelaide 1-39

please give your thoughts.

[lordkai35]

another 1-1 with the cowgirls unable to close it out

3-3 -0.5 units

[lordkai35]

AFL CARLTON/SUNS

2x Carlton 1-39
-big outs for the suns, if carlton lose this their finals hopes are all but over but with the form gcs are in atm i dont see this being a blowout
1x Sam Rowe over 1+ goals ($1.83 Luxbet)
-playing FF has scored 1 goal in 5/7 and 2 out of those
0.3 x Lachlan Henderson most goals for game ($6.5 sportsbet)
-thompson out for suns and he should have a field day

[lordkai35]

FK SAKE goal 10secs to goal iam gutted

[rohan22no]

Sick beat lordkai, bad luck

your picks are good, keep it up. Long term focus!

[lordkai35]

4-5 -1.5 units, henderson goals saved us, but stupid carlton unbelievable not going to say more

[lordkai35]

collingwood -86.5 x1 <- looks dead
raiders -1 x1
raiders/dragons u38 x1
crusaders -3.5 x1

[lordkai35]

5-8 -3.5units horrible start..

playing freo/crows under 155.5 x1
freo 1-39 1x
sam burgess sc under 75.5 x1
luke sc overs 69.5 x1

[lordkai35]

sorry for late posts just got home to check results

[lordkai35]

7-10-3.58 units

sam burgess gets a free 60 points from two tries....
pretty unlucky this weekend will stop posting plays and just tail, sorry to anyone who followed

[sando]

Don't be silly, keep posting mate. Guys around here LOVE prop bets. Variance - just ride it out, nobody can win every week.

[lordkai35]

Don't be silly, keep posting mate. Guys around here LOVE prop bets. Variance - just ride it out, nobody can win every week.

cheers mate love the words of encouragement ill try to find some super safe props for tomorrow

[aussieH]

That late goal in the carton game cost me as well. That was an unbelievable way to lose. Still can't believe it

[lordkai35]

That late goal in the carton game cost me as well. That was an unbelievable way to lose. Still can't believe it

story of all my bets :P

[Domestic]

Hang in there lordkai, law of averages is now on your side, things will swing around.

[lordkai35]

1x port adelaide 1-39

just tailing a couple of guys on here, will try to find some prop plays for nrl later

[lordkai35]

nrl sharks/penrith

andrew fifita over 140m $1.88 sportsbet

hes starting, props on bench dont play big mins, no gallen/lewis he will have a big game.

[lordkai35]

nice hits !

9-10 -1.6 units

[Domestic]

[lordkai35]

nrl sharks/warriors

1x andrew fifita under 155.5m ($1.75 sportsbet)

-gallen is back, fifita will not be no1 go to forward anymore. fifita has never made past 140m in a losing side and i expect warriors to be too good today at home. warriors have big forwards who will not let him make ridiculous metres. minutes will also be affected by gallen and heighnton on bench

[lordkai35]

another horrific start, somehow fifita plays the most mins he has ever played....... and the hawks get demolished..

0-2 -2 units

[lordkai35]

st kilda +26.5 1.92 sportsbet

[lordkai35]

0-3 fk this... tailed one play from another punter and somehow thats the only play he loses. sigh