e-Sports DotA2

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  • Johndrama
    SBR Sharp
    • 04-27-13
    • 479

    #1
    e-Sports DotA2
    I see that this board does not have a section dedicated to e-sports so I'll be creating this thread here and cover the e-sport game dota2.
    English is not my native language so I'll try my best in describing this event and apologies for the mistakes.

    What is DotA2? it's an acronym that stands for Defense of the Ancients, it's an online team game, played 5 versus 5, where each player gets to choose and play a hero from a pool of 101 available heroes. The objective is for each team to destroy the enemy's throne. The game is excessively complicated, having many variables, each hero is unique in its own way having 4 distinctive abilities it can perform, all whom differ from other heroes' abilities; these abilities are called spells.

    The first dota, called then simply DotA, first appeared in 2003, as a custom map for the popular blizzard game Warcraft3, it was developed by guinsoo and eul and later on by IceFrog, who is still developing the game to this day.
    The game attracted a lot of people to the genre and its fan base quickly grew. In the beginning there were very few teams and the competitive scene was non-existent, the first tourneys had extremely low prize pools. With the success the game had, Valve hired Icefrog to develop DotA2 as a standalone game. In time the prize pools got bigger and even though dota2 is still in development, when the first stable version was released, valve held a tourney in Seattle and invited the best teams in the world to battle themselves for a prize pool of 1 million dollars ( the highest tourneys before this had prize pools under 10k $ ).

    Who am I and what does this game have to do with me.
    I am a 23 years old student finishing my masters degree in electric engineering; when I was a kid instead of chasing tail and doing tequilla shots in the weekends I went to net cafes and played this game. It was a drug, a drug I kept taking for years. I still play this game, I think I average 3 games per week nowadays.
    A few years back I tried going pro, had numerous failed attempts at doing so, my biggest achievement would be reaching the group stage of a tournament where we were KO'ed by a team composed of 3 out of 5 players that are currently in a team that is in the top 5 teams in the world.

    Even though I have less free time now and I can't play as much as I used to, I always kept a close eye on the game, I know all the strats, I know all the players, all the teams. I know I do not sound humble in saying so but that's the truth, I've spent a lot of time with this game, too much time actually which at that time I regretted, but maybe now something good can come out of this; finally betting on this game is possible and it's currently available at pinnacle.

    You'd think that with all the knowledge I have about the game I could milk all the profit there is, and that's what I thought...I've never been so wrong. I ran some tests these last few days, testing how would my picks do, and the results are not that good looking. I am confident however that I can achieve good results, because the books even with the best analysts can't possible control such a new and young market. Unless they hire an old school player that knows the game in and out, they can't get a good angle and will set the odds based on current form and h2h history. I've seen a lot of mistakes and will attempt to take advantage of their errors.

    Pff, there's so much more to add, I had everything set up in my mind but it's harder to describe everything. So if anyone has any questions feel free to ask.
    With that said I'll start with my first pick.

    IG - LGD.cn
    Two chinese powerhouses. The big tournament that Valve hosted to promote their game was called the international, both team were suppose to attend but in the last minute IG made a move and acquired 4 of LGD's members rendering them unable to participate, this was in 2011, in 2012 when the international 2 was hosted LGD with a now reformed squad was able to attend and went undefeated in the groupstage losing only in the finals and grabbing the 3rd spot; IG defeated Na'vi and thus won the international 2012.
    There's a huge rivalry between these two club, both representing china and wanting to make their country proud. IG has been underperforming recently, while LGD is hungrier than ever, they fought good and hard at the last international and will do so again at this year's international. In the meanwhile I think this game is a good occasion to take advantage of IG's bad streak and go with a constant solid that is LGD.
    My pick : LGD.cn to win @ 1.82; 1u

    I will add more insight about how the game is played and the important aspects that are factored in when betting but for the meanwhile I'll just post this.
  • Akatana
    SBR MVP
    • 05-05-13
    • 1307

    #2
    Very interesting John! Thank you for taking your time and writing all this.
    English may not be your first language yet you speak it more fluently and accurately than most native tongued English speakers. Coming from an online poker background (Although now my passion lies with the world of sport's betting and will remain so, i am studying several mathematical and analytical subject's both quantitative and qualitative for this exact purpose and am not going to stop until i get what i want. I always came across professional gamer's of this area that turned poker-pro some successful and some not. I've always been interested, i have to be honest i am a complete amateur in this area, but your introduction has helped me at least start getting a better grasp on the field, so again thanks! i will be following and learning from your expertise! (And it wont be long until my gambling beast side, --although that word "Gambling" may be a controversial one to use--, arises and start tailing your pick's lol) Best wishes
    Comment
    • DHB
      SBR MVP
      • 04-14-11
      • 1538

      #3
      very interesting, good luck with this.
      will keep an eye out.
      Comment
      • Johndrama
        SBR Sharp
        • 04-27-13
        • 479

        #4
        Good start, LGD.cn won 2-0, surprised IG coudnt grab at least 1 game, but this shows LGD's dedication.

        Today I'll be focusing on an interesting match up. Na`vi vs Virtus.pro.
        This is a way harder game than the odds suggest. Na`vi is the Shaktar Donetsk of dota2, a ukrainian e-sport organization who I think may have the highest fan base in all of europe. Na`vi were invited to the first international, at that time having in their squad Artstyle as their captain and won the international securing the 1st place. After the international, the captain Artstyle left and was replaced by estonian player Puppey while adding another ukrainian player Ars-Art. At the international 2, they were defeated in the finals by chinese Invictus Gaming. After the event their form declined, starting losing most of the tournaments and to inferior teams. Their manager put a stop to this performance and kicked Ars-Art and LightofHeaven from their squad, disguising the reasons for their departure, saying the players will take a personal time or focus on personal matters. The squad quickly added german ex-mouz member Kuroky and ukrainian ex-team empire member Funn1k. Results soon improved, ex member LightofHeaven joined team empire and ars-art joined virtus.pro.

        I regard Puppey as being a genius strategist and captain while their solo mid player Dendi as being the Lebron James of european dota, extremely talented, smart and aggressive, he's rarely outplayed and most of the time ends dominating his lane.
        Virtus.pro was once considered the best dota team in the world, having a totally different squad back then, winning dota1's MYM Prime Defending tournament 3 times in a row. Since then their squad as been restructured many times, only original member NS remained.
        Na`vi has been sloppy recently and if they are to prove they can take this years international they should start winning, and do so in style.
        My pick Na`vi to win @ 1.5; 2u to win 1u.
        Comment
        • Akatana
          SBR MVP
          • 05-05-13
          • 1307

          #5
          Will be tailing this also for 2u's. Thanks great educative insight's John.
          Comment
          • Johndrama
            SBR Sharp
            • 04-27-13
            • 479

            #6
            Pick lost, Na`vi lost.
            I'm not one to make excuses but this one has a good one. The game was lost before it started. 2 of Na`vi regulars didn't play and instead standins played. Their captain and hero picker Puppey was missing and their main carry player XbocT did as well.
            This kind of scenarios will be my kryptonite because there is no way for me to find out when players will be missings. There is no site that lists this, not their main site, not dedicated sites, nothing. The persons who stream and commentate the game are the only ones that will know a few mins before the game, they are the ones creating and setting up the lobby that will hosts the 10 players, and thats when they'll see that instead of X there will be Y playing. You need to befriend someone ...not on the inside so to speak but close to the main team in order to have access to this type of information.
            This scenarios do not happen too often, this sport is not like other sports, teams do not have reserves, they use like in this case, they use members from other teams that are approved to play for this particular match. In these tournaments where teams do not give their full attention things like this can happen; when the international 3 will take place, I'll no longer have to worry about this.

            That's half the reason they lost, secondly the players didnt play their designated roles. You had Kuroky whos the main tactical support playing the main carry and funn1k who's the main long lane type of survivalist specialist playing the support. Roles were mixed and the new players that were in had no communication whatsoever.
            Even with all this being said, Na`vi dominated the game but coudnt close. Their last opportunity was wasted by kuroky who went suicidal for no reason and cost them the game.

            All in all, very good pick, had I known the missings there wouldve been no bet from my part.
            Interesting fact : This is the market that can be exploited...the odds didnt move a cent, meaning the books had no idea of the absences.

            I'll be doing another writeup later on explaining other aspects of the game.
            Comment
            • Johndrama
              SBR Sharp
              • 04-27-13
              • 479

              #7
              Fast writeup because the game is about to start.

              Mouzsports - Keita. BO3 series, my pick Mouz -1.5 @ 1.78; 1.2u to win 1u

              Mouz is the german powerhouse that went through many changes to have the squad they have now. They are a young talented team who have excellent synergy and have that german stability you see everywhere. Along the years players like Kuroky, currently in Na`Vi where a part of this team, they also had a mixture of multiple nationalities players but now have 4 german players + 1 danish player ( captain ).
              Keita is a full swedish organization with all their 5 members being swedish. Nothing much to say about them, nothing impressive from their part, they had a squad in 2012, nothing before that and now in 2013 they are taking a shot at the big guns.
              Found out that their captain synderen will not be able to play and instead they will use a Kaipi substitute. The change is role per role so nothing changes.
              Mouz should win this series 2-0, anything else would surprise me, their quality is far superior and the team communication and synergy is extremely stable
              Comment
              • h3da
                SBR MVP
                • 05-10-10
                • 1331

                #8
                don't touch euro teams as they aren't as dedicated and too many throws and fixing as well as consistency
                Comment
                • Johndrama
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 04-27-13
                  • 479

                  #9
                  Originally posted by h3da
                  don't touch euro teams as they aren't as dedicated and too many throws and fixing as well as consistency
                  Perhaps but I find the asian scene to be unpredictable when it comes to covering the handicap, any team could take a game from the big guns, the recent results are proof of this. Anyways, I'll see and adapt.
                  Comment
                  • Johndrama
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 04-27-13
                    • 479

                    #10
                    Mouz - Keita, pick won, Mouz defeated Keita 2-0. Keita's 1st game had some potential but in team clashes mouz proved to be too strong and well coordinated.
                    Comment
                    • h3da
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-10-10
                      • 1331

                      #11
                      What team did you play for before? I follow the scene a fair bit but I am in Australia. Not sure if you know the original AL? Blackshatan R1sk godot etc? I use to be in the same team as R1sk. I am going to back DK to beat Lgd.int. The reason is LGD.int hasn't beaten DK best out of 3 in a long while. Risking 100 to win 177.

                      Good luck
                      Comment
                      • Johndrama
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 04-27-13
                        • 479

                        #12
                        Originally posted by h3da
                        What team did you play for before? I follow the scene a fair bit but I am in Australia. Not sure if you know the original AL? Blackshatan R1sk godot etc? I use to be in the same team as R1sk. I am going to back DK to beat Lgd.int. The reason is LGD.int hasn't beaten DK best out of 3 in a long while. Risking 100 to win 177.

                        Good luck
                        Yeah man I remember them, an all australian lineup if I recall correctly, honestly its hard to keep track, that team had more squad changes than Gaga's hair. I know they grabbed some romanian players after that, picked vigoss and mania then one by one left and now it's an all danish squad.

                        Nice pick with DK, I wanted to do a writeup but when I checked pinnacle there was no line for the game and decided to let it be. Glad that it win. GL
                        Comment
                        • Johndrama
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 04-27-13
                          • 479

                          #13
                          Mousesports - Virtus.pro

                          This game is played in the star ladder series event and not in the defence 3 so I'm hoping no more standins and synderen will be able to play for mouz. Virtus is looking good so far in the series, with 7 wins no loses while mouz is with 4W1L. Very hard game to predict, but I'd give mouz the advantage they are more resilient, and seem to be better coordinated while virtus has the aggressiveness factor going for them, but that is a double edge sword to some degree. I described both teams in the posts above me, this game is a good example of a coinflip, I'd say both team have an equal chance to take it but the odds have virtus to be the favorite so in a 50-50 scenario you take the better odds.
                          My pick: Mouz to win @ 2.4; 0.7u to win 1u
                          Comment
                          • h3da
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-10-10
                            • 1331

                            #14
                            do you know reinnnn from gosugamers?i am good friends with him and he probably can give us info on certain teams eg. standins e t c
                            Comment
                            • Johndrama
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 04-27-13
                              • 479

                              #15
                              Originally posted by h3da
                              do you know reinnnn from gosugamers?i am good friends with him and he probably can give us info on certain teams eg. standins e t c
                              well if you're ex AL player you must know your shit, I do not know reinnn but I'd really much appreciate it if you could pull out some inside info like missings etc.
                              Comment
                              • Johndrama
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 04-27-13
                                • 479

                                #16
                                Mouz - Virtus.pro, mouz won, pick won.
                                Comment
                                • h3da
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-10-10
                                  • 1331

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Johndrama
                                  well if you're ex AL player you must know your shit, I do not know reinnn but I'd really much appreciate it if you could pull out some inside info like missings etc.
                                  Nah I was in the same team as Shatan,R1sk back in dota 1 but due to commitments I stopped playing and mainly just watching streams but i follow E-sports. One thing to note which i think is a trend- whenever vp is favourite they seem to throw very often. They are overated team with so many russians/euros betting on them so you can get juicy odds on their opponents. I manly focus on the asian scene where there's more values. Mouz with synd as captain has been impressive winning the qualifiers to t13. I still think Chinese will win t13 as they will figure out how to beat Alliance (Alliance should have saved their strat for t13)
                                  Comment
                                  • Johndrama
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 04-27-13
                                    • 479

                                    #18
                                    6/3/2013:

                                    Na`vi vs Team Liquid. We've talked a lot about Na`vi, they have very strong individual players and I'd say above average team coordination, while in my opinion Liquid is inferior player-wise but are superior team-wise with excellent fighting spirit and dedication.
                                    Team Liquid is a dutch company with american players, I consider them the strongest team in the NA, having always impress me with their constant good performances. The american scene is the worst regarding DoTa, having very few teams so they do not necessarily have that unique factor that each continent brings to the table but they still replicate a good style mixing asian and european styles.
                                    Today we might see the home/away factor come into play. Until now this hasnt been a factor unless there was an intercontinental match like it this case. The game is hosted on a dedicated server which might affect one teams playing performance regarding its response time; playing from the states on an european server and viceversa will cause the players to have some delay. This series will be BO3 which means one game will be played on an european server while the other will be played on an american one, in case of a draw the last one will be coinflipped.
                                    I'm basing my pick strongly on this factor, the books have Na`vi as favorite which is acceptable, I see the winning this 2-1 so I'll be taking Team Liquid +1.5 @ 1.56; 1.78u to win 1u
                                    Comment
                                    • Johndrama
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 04-27-13
                                      • 479

                                      #19
                                      Virtus.pro - iCCup.

                                      iCCup is another eastern european team having players from ukraine and belarus. Both teams have many old school players and while iCCup have had many decent performances even against better teams, I have to say Virtus.pro have a better momentum going for them right now, they worked hard on their communication and synergy and results are starting to show. The Star series competition is their baby, having excellent results, I think they will want to continue with that streak ( 8-0-1 ).
                                      iCCup is inferior to Virtus.pro in all aspects, they cannot win this game, only virtus can lose it so to say.
                                      I would have stayed away from this game because these eastern european teams tend to throw a lot when they are favorites but considering their attractive results in this league they will want to continue that streak.
                                      Virtus.pro to win @ 1.64; 1.56u to win 1u
                                      Comment
                                      • Hanamichi23
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 09-08-12
                                        • 16

                                        #20
                                        VP takes it.

                                        Great thread Jd, I'll be following
                                        Comment
                                        • Johndrama
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 04-27-13
                                          • 479

                                          #21
                                          Team Liquid +1.5 @ 1.56; 1.78u to win 1u -> Na`vi won 2-0, pick lost
                                          Virtus.pro to win @ 1.64; 1.56u to win 1u -> VP won, pick won
                                          Comment
                                          • Johndrama
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 04-27-13
                                            • 479

                                            #22
                                            6/4 Star Ladder

                                            iCCup - Empire.
                                            Empire was a powerhouse featuring players like vigoss, silent, goblak, scandal, blowyourbrain, unfortunately they left behind only blow adding old school players like twista, mitch and new blood anahronix.
                                            They're not a bad mixture but there's a language barrier with all the multinationality (croatia, ukraine, russia, albania ) which I hope it will be soon resolved.
                                            This is a game I would avoid but the books still see empire as an underdog which is mostly true but they will sooner or later find their form and lets not forget that this team's members have some years of experience above those of iCCup ( maybe not above mag or jackal, but still..).
                                            Pick: Empire to win @ 2.6; 0.6u to win 1u

                                            DD dota vs Kaipi.
                                            DDdota now features a mixture of french players with ex-empire guns like silent and goblak. This team is capable of getting good results and did, they can certainly pose a great threat even to the big guns. Kaipi on the other hand is a perfect upset team, they have currently the most dedicated players I've seen in some time, not as a team but individually thirsty players that have the skills and desire to prove other teams they deserve their place on the podium. Players like bone7 ( previously known as ugandaplayer ), comewithme, romanian players from the old days that refound their desire for the game perhaps with the increase in prizes and the surge of sponsors that follows the success of dota2. Ex-Alliance captain ethernalenvy that is known in the scene for his many unorthodox plays still has some aces in his arsenal; swedish old school player pieledie that still delivers constant performance; and new blood arteezy who has some impressive plays up his sleeve.
                                            My pick : Kaipi @ 2.7; 0.58u to win 1u.

                                            RaidCall : Team Liquid - Evil Geniuses.

                                            Ah, a north american derby, with very few NA teams, these two teams always fought hard to prove who is the best american team. Like I said in my previous writeup, I regard Liquid as a team with excellent teamwork who delivered exceptional results in the past against stronger teams; unfortunately it wasnt the case today against Na`vi whom it seems retrieved their golden form. EG is one of the oldest sponsored teams not only in the NA scene but in the world. They currently lost their danish captain Maelk who was replaced by Fear, who is such an old school player that he's called the old man. I dislike EG because of its young players that tend to make big plays to impress the viewers, players like Demon and JeYo, add to this equation SexyBamboe, a high risk high reward player, you tend to lose a lot of efficiency and constancy.
                                            My pick : Team liquid to win @ 1.8; 1.25u to win 1u
                                            Comment
                                            • Johndrama
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 04-27-13
                                              • 479

                                              #23
                                              My pick : Team liquid to win @ 1.8; 1.25u to win 1u -> Liquid won 2-1; pick won
                                              My pick : Kaipi @ 2.7; 0.58u to win 1u. -> Pick won
                                              Pick: Empire to win @ 2.6; 0.6u to win 1u -> Pick lost

                                              Superb performance by Liquid to come back from a defeat in the first game and win it 2-1.
                                              Empire played with 2 standins. Kaipi played well, well deserved victory

                                              Current record : 6-3
                                              Comment
                                              • h3da
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-10-10
                                                • 1331

                                                #24
                                                lol the odds change so fast.. basically our timezone sucks so I can only follow Asia scene because most of the games would have been completed by the time i wake up. This Empire team needs to get some better players- keep scandal, LOH and blowyourbrain and perhaps need to pick up players like artystle or PGG. The supports are just rubbish and pub-par
                                                Comment
                                                • therealdealau
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-12-10
                                                  • 3227

                                                  #25
                                                  I don't know much about the current Dota2 scene but I used to play professional Counter-Strike - can you bet on that? GL with your eSports plays. Go NAVI!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Domestic
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-10-09
                                                    • 6323

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by therealdealau
                                                    I don't know much about the current Dota2 scene but I used to play professional Counter-Strike - can you bet on that? GL with your eSports plays. Go NAVI!
                                                    At this point I've only ever seen Pinnacle offer lines on Starcraft 2, League of Legend and Dota 2.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Johndrama
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 04-27-13
                                                      • 479

                                                      #27
                                                      6/5/2013

                                                      DD.dota vs Zrage. We talked yesterday about DD.dota when I went against them, I took Kaipi because it was the best spot to pull such a move and the odds were favorable; now DD.dota have grabbed a new sponsor in the last 12hours and they will be called Quantic ( same squad, no changes ).
                                                      I honestly can't tell you much about Zrage, I only heard about 2 of their players, they're another russian team that came to fuckk shit up with their below average performances. I'm not worried about underestimating them, they are a russian team facing a french-rus mix team so the playing styles are the same.
                                                      I'm strongly leaning on Quantic here because of the "new manager effect" you see in soccer or in other sports. They just grabbed a new sponsor and will want to impress, especially in these first games where their chances to win are the highest. They will face Alliance later on, a team that is considered the best european team ( debatable, I disagree but stats-wise they are leaders ) and will probably defeat Quantic. So now it's their chance to impress

                                                      My pick : Quantic (still DD.dota on pinnacle) -1.5 @ 1.75; 2u to win 1.5u

                                                      Quantic will also be facing a scandinavian team TCM Gaming after the games with zRage and Alliance, odds are low but I can only see a win for our newly sponsored team.
                                                      Quantic -TCM -> My pick : Quantic @1.3; 3,4u to win 1u
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Johndrama
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 04-27-13
                                                        • 479

                                                        #28
                                                        Team Liquid - Team Dignitas. Another NA derby, both teams with 4 american players each + 1 canadian. Yesterday Liquid faced EG, rated @ 1.9 right before the game ,now they're favorites rated @ 1.5. Unfortunately I see Dignitas as a stronger team than EG, at least in the last month, EG's new addition has made them unstable while Dignitas has been playing with this squad for some time.
                                                        Dignitas has its shares of high risk high reward players like EG has but these players perform those moves without exposing the team. It's a hard matchup, one which Liquid wont be winning as often as the odds suggest.
                                                        In a standard coinflip scenario where each team has equal chances, I'll take the one with higher odds.
                                                        My pick: Dignitas @ 2.5; 0.6u to win 1u

                                                        For those bored or curious you can check gosugamer's site for upcoming matches, rankings, news, etc.
                                                        http://www.gosugamers.net/dota2
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Johndrama
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 04-27-13
                                                          • 479

                                                          #29
                                                          Dk - Rising Stars.

                                                          My pick : RS +1.5 @ 2.15; 1,3u to win 1,5u.

                                                          I'm leaving in a few mins and the game starts in 3h, I have no time to add the writeup, I'll add it when I get back.
                                                          Comment
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