State of Origin 2013!

[sando]

The greatest sporting event in the world.

Less than a month away.

Let's get the party started with some early smack talk...

[hawley]

Kind of wish I was an aussie during SOO time so I could root for either QLD or NSW.

I find myself low key supporting NSW because I see so many fukkers jumping on the QLD bandwagon.

Hopefully someone with the numbers in front of them can confirm but i'm sure last few years game one and two have been low scoring and gone under with game three going over?

Apart from that the 1-12 margin seems like an auto-bet for whatever side you like.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Our forwards have dominated the last 2 years, yet we've lost because of 1 reason.

Mitchell phucking Pearce

Before that it was Kurt phucking Gidley

Laurie Daley has basically handed the # 7 jersey to Pearce, so it looks like QLD will win 8 in a row.

[sando]

Our forwards have dominated the last 2 years, yet we've lost because of 1 reason.

Mitchell phucking Pearce

Before that it was Kurt phucking Gidley

Laurie Daley has basically handed the # 7 jersey to Pearce, so it looks like QLD will win 8 in a row.

We have to stay positive mate, don't be taking that attitude. For the 3rd year in a row, we (the Blues) have the best team on paper. Hopefully this year we also have the best team on the park. It's about bloody time they stopped playing a game in Melbourne. Fukc Melbourne, they have enough sporting events. SOO belongs to NSW & QLD.

[s2230011]

I think NSW has a shot, the backs are more experienced for the run last year. I think Jennings is much improved, JMoz was a machine last year and will step up again. Blake Ferguson is a must ... I think he will be our Xfactor ! If BMoz is out .. I hope they pick Toufua, that guy is a MACHINE. I love Uate, but I think that experiment has sailed a little, he was playing better footy last year and didnt step up for Origin.

In terms of forwards, well our Forwards are in much much better form. Hooker is an issue, will need Farah to play out of his skin like he did last year.

Please no Gidley on the bench. And please no Watmough or Glen Stewart, plenty of better forwards going around.

[sando]

I think NSW has a shot, the backs are more experienced for the run last year. I think Jennings is much improved, JMoz was a machine last year and will step up again. Blake Ferguson is a must ... I think he will be our Xfactor ! If BMoz is out .. I hope they pick Toufua, that guy is a MACHINE. I love Uate, but I think that experiment has sailed a little, he was playing better footy last year and didnt step up for Origin.

In terms of forwards, well our Forwards are in much much better form. Hooker is an issue, will need Farah to play out of his skin like he did last year.

Please no Gidley on the bench. And please no Watmough or Glen Stewart, plenty of better forwards going around.

Mate agree everything you you just said except Glen Stewart. How could you not want him in the team other than lack of game time from his injury? Big strong tackling machine with an offload and a cheeky little grubber kick at the line. What forward can give you that? Plus he's highly respected and looked up to among his peers. Agree 100% with Ferguson. If he doesn't get picked then Daley is an idiot. I hope they can find some room for Hayne. We're gonna need his amazing cover defence, especially with Snake out of the team.

[sando]

Here's my NSW origin team for game 1.

1. J. Hayne
2. N. Merritt
3. J. Morris
4. B. Ferguson
5. M. Jennings
6. T. Carney
7. M. Pearce (I prefer Adam Reynolds, but the Pearce/Carney combo is battle tested).
8. T. Grant
9. R. Farrah (c)
10. J. Tamou
11. G. Bird
12. R. Hoffman
13. G. Stewart

Interchange

T. Merrin
J. Idris (Can play as a forward if needed)
A. Uate
L. Lewis

Injuries - B. Morris, B. Stewart & P. Gallen to come back into the squad

Unlucky - R. Robinson, A. Reynolds, T. Campese (out too long), J. Maloney, T-Rex (out of form), A. Watmough, A. Woods.

May have forgotten someone?

[the tross]

They have the storms big 3 plus 2, GI and JT . Blues will never win a series because of it. And I hate that shite.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

1. Michael Gordon
2. Jarryd Hayne
3. Brett Morris
4. Michael Jennings
5. Jorge Taufua
6. Todd Carney
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Tim Grant
9. Robbie Farah
10. James Tamou
11. Greg Bird
12. Luke Lewis
13. Glenn Stewart

14. Josh Reynolds
15. Aaron Woods
16. Trent Merrin
17. Anthony Watmough

Hayne has to play, he always plays well for NSW, reminds me of Dale Shearer for QLD - club form rubbish, but a machine in Origin. However, I think his positional play is still lacking and the Maroons' kickers will exploit this as they have done previously, hence the inclusion of Gordon who prior to his injury last year, was looking good for the fullback jumper.

The loss of Brett Morris is a blow, but I think Taufua gives NSW an explosive runner like Uate, without the liability in defence. Josh Morris had to keep an eye out on Inglis and Boyd because of Uate's defensive shortcomings. QLD had a field day down that edge and won game 1 with 3 similar tries down that side.

The halves pose a major problem for NSW. In my opinion, if we had a decent halfback, we would have won at least last year's series. Mitchell Pearce is awful, his kicking game is impotent and not one of his kicks found grass in last year's series. We need someone who can find the turf, kicking away from Slater and co, giving our defence a chance to pin QLD in their 20m zone and force mistakes. Too many times QLD were getting to 30m out on tackle 1 and starting their sets in good field position, while Cronk and Smith were nailing their kicks and we were getting tackled 10m out.

Pearce has had 5 series to get it right and has failed to deliver. I hate the constant chopping and changing of teams, but he has had his fair share of runs and has found wanting. Don't be fooled by his club form this year. The Roosters have plenty of others taking the pressure off Pearce, with Maloney on one side and SBW on the other. The extra few seconds you get in a club game disappears in origin.

Adam Reynolds is the ideal replacement and will give NSW something they have lacked for years - a top notch kicking game. He has the lot, short, long, high, low. For mine, he must play or we lose again.

Carney was very ordinary in last year's series but I am willing to cut him some slack and give him another shot. He must impose himself more on the game and he should be better for the run last year.

The forwards pretty much pick themselves as we have had the better pack for the last few years.
Gallen would be a walk up start, but he's out with injury.
Lewis has to start as I think he doesn't offer as much from the bench.
Watmough has to play - watch how he gets NSW going from dummy half with his quick darts whenever he comes on. He is so hard to tackle and can get an offload away, together with his explosiveness around the ruck - awesome off the bench.

We need 2 props on the bench, simple as that. Keep the rotation working and get them on the back foot. Woods and Merrin are probably the best 2 going around at the moment, but would also be happy with Tolman.

The last spot on the bench would go to Josh Reynolds. The guy is a livewire, not afraid to chance his arm, brings plenty of enthusiasm and can cover halves or hooker. His defence is solid and he can spark something out of nothing - much better than picking Gidley there again.

[s2230011]

I like Josh Reynolds on the bench but that won't happen. I honestly don't think Adam Reynolds is a better half than Pearce.
I also wouldn't pick Carney, he was more than terrible last year in Origin, he isn't playing that great this year, and his goal kicking is pretty bad. Maloney would be my 5/8, he is doing well ATM and takes the line on in attack.
I would go for Hayne at fullback. Gallen and BMoz would be given till game day to prove fitness.
Don't like glen Stewart, watched him the last few weeks- he is well off his normal performances.
I agree bird and Lewis are a must. Lewis is playing out of his skin this year.
I think our strength is in the forwards and we should stack the bench with front rowers. You'll get 80 mins from gallen, bird and Lewis, just keep the others rotating and charging hard.

[s2230011]

Sorry I hate Watmough ... he does make things happen sometimes but I think in general he rans sideways too much and looses momentum of the set.

plus the odd drop ball and penalty giveaways

[sando]

Here's my NSW origin team for game 1.

1. J. Hayne
2. N. Merritt
3. J. Morris
4. B. Ferguson
5. M. Jennings
6. T. Carney
7. A. Reynolds (Won't happen. Selectors consider him too green. We all know Pearce will play)
8. T. Grant
9. R. Farrah (c)
10. J. Tamou
11. G. Bird
12. L. Lewis (swap with R. Hoffman going to the bench)
13. G. Stewart

Interchange

T. Merrin
J. Idris (Can play as a forward if needed)
J. Tafua (was Uate)
R. Hoffman

Injuries - B. Morris, B. Stewart & P. Gallen to come back into the squad

Unlucky - R. Robinson, A. Reynolds, T. Campese (out too long), J. Maloney, T-Rex (out of form), A. Watmough, A. Woods. A. Uate.

May have forgotten someone?

Ok I've revised my list slightly after reading through TGM's and s2230011's post's.

Changes in red.

Beat this team you dirty canetoads.

PS - TGM you dissapoint me mate. The mistake the selectors have been making is playing Hayne on the wing. He HAS to play fullback, especially with Snake out. I doubt there is a player in the game that has made more try saving tackles this season than Hayne? Also how can you leave Fergo out. Maaaate. C'mon???

[Tim Gerry Mander]

NSW team announced

1. Jarryd Hayne
2. Brett Morris
3. Michael Jennings
4. Josh Morris
5. Blake Ferguson - loose cannon, I just hope his defence is better than Uate's as Josh Morris had to defend for 2 people last year and QLD exploited this.
6. James Maloney - Don't mind his selection, would have stuck Carney, even though he was average last year.
7. Mitchell Pearce - Can't phucking understand how he keeps getting picked - must have some real dirt on some of the selectors.
8. James Tamou
9. Robbie Farah
10. Paul Gallen (capt) - would have played him in the backrow and picked Tim Grant at prop - he ironed out Petero last year and doesn't even get a start...
11. Luke Lewis
12. Ryan Hoffman - phucking shit player who only looks good because of Cronk - got found out last time when Bellamy was coach of NSW, will happen again
13. Greg Bird

14. Anthony Watmough
15. Kurt Gidley - Worst phucking decision of the lot - tries so hard to be a gamebreaker but breaks the game open for QLD with his mistakes
16. Andrew Fifita - I'd have chosen Aaron Woods, but he seems to be going well this year.
17. Trent Merrin

If I could change 3 things, these would be the order of preference:

=1 - Axe Mitchell Pearce and replace with either Todd Carne or Adam Reynolds or heck even Jarrod Mullen
=1 - Kurt Gidley??????? WTF???????? Josh Reynolds offers so much more - i'd even take a one-legged Craig Wing over Gidley
Daylight
3 - Ryan Hoffman - Liam Fulton is better than him and that's saying something!

The question is - what happens if we lose the first game again? will lozza make changes to the halves for game 2 up in brisbane with the newcomers facing a do-or-die scenario AGAIN?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

It seems like the gods are smiling upon NSW with Kurt Gidley ruled out of Origin 1 with injury.
I still can't believe how Tim Grant doesn't get a place in the team.
As I mentioned earlier, he sat Petero on his arse with his first hit-up in Origin last year and can't even crack it for a spot on the bench.
Do you think the QLD selectors would have done that to him?

The Maroons team looks very thin in the forwards - seriously if NSW can't dominate game 1 and win well, they are a lost cause.
I am expecting our forwards to completely overpower the QLD pack and thus it will all come down to the NSW kicking game as to whether or not we can win - Surely it is Pearce's last chance - if they can't win at home against a weakened Maroons team, he's gotta go - end of story.

[benrama]

Are we fired up yet?! I'm going to the game, should be an epic contest.

NSW have well and truly firmed into favourites, and as a Blues fan I hate to say it but they shouldn't be. Ferguson and Jennings are potential liabilities on defense and mentally. Pearce is over rated, Hayne has hardly been in top form. Farrah is workmanlike but not a game changer. Hoffman is nothing special.

And in QLD you have weaknesses ... Where?! Slater, Inglis, Hodges, Thurston are all top 10 players and match winners in the game. Blues have .... Ummm.

Now don't get me wrong this year I like the positive energy coming into the game and the fact a lot of our boys are having winning seasons, but for any of you punters with no emotional ties to the game, getting QLD at plus money is highly +EV.

[Mase of Base]

Leaning the under at this stage. Games 1 & 2 have gone under this total the past two years.

I feel NSW may be doing more of the attacking in better areas tonight off the back of their pack and as they have proved time and time again QLD defend very well. The thing that's putting me off at this stage is the blues numbers 1 through 5, there looks to be points in those guys............ but not all of them for NSW.

[MrXYZ]

Being in NSW I go for the blues but have been cashing big QLD series bets for the last 3 years. We could see the 7 year steak end though.

The lack of continuity keeps killing NSW. In QLD you have guys that have been playing together for years in Smith, JT, Slater, Cronk & Inglis, not only for their state but for Australia as well. Remember that section of game 2 last year, the playmaking to get them into position & applying the pressure - only for Dave Taylor to throw away the hard work. They can string together patches of brilliance when it counts. On he other hand NSW have got the talent & youth on their side, not sure that will be enough. If it's a tied game with 10 minutes to go it's QLD that takes game 1.

[Bazz27]

Mate the blues time has finally come n i really like those blues halves together. 2.5 units on nsw 1-12 & U/34.5 @$3.50.

[Bazz27]

Correction that bets @$4.50

[Coopertrooper]

Mate the blues time has finally come n i really like those blues halves together. 2.5 units on nsw 1-12 & U/34.5 @$3.50.

I jumped on that one at 4.50 as well, and also grabbed QLD to score first, be up at HT and win as a small hedge if NSW are slow to start.

Should be good viewing!

[s2230011]

I like JT U5.5 pts @ 2.06

I hear he is under the weather and Cam Smith may well be kicking

[ExodusNZ]

Advise?

Took NSW -1.5 @ 1.91 (6U)
And NSW 1-12 @ 2.55 (3U)

Basically half time now [2 mins to go] - Should I buy some QLD @ $5.5? As a safety net

Or -11.5 (which literally means I cancel out the 1-12 and also have 13+)

[ACoochy]

Here comes the mandatory Marones comeback

[ExodusNZ]

Advise?

Took NSW -1.5 @ 1.91 (6U)
And NSW 1-12 @ 2.55 (3U)

Basically half time now [2 mins to go] - Should I buy some QLD @ $5.5? As a safety net

Or -11.5 (which literally means I cancel out the 1-12 and also have 13+)

Since no one replied I left it!!!

Very happy (as above) but sad!! (I support Queensland) - Bring on game 2 - Will be flying over to the game!

[s2230011]

I like JT U5.5 pts @ 2.06

I hear he is under the weather and Cam Smith may well be kicking

Easiest money I ever made

[hawley]

Had NSW 1-12, u34 and Lewis / Hayne MOM.

Formula is always the same for SOO.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Luke Lewis and Andrew Fifita were unstoppable

Hayne was great too.

The funny thing is, QLD were awful and still only lost by 8

[Bazz27]

nice collect on the 1-12 & U/34.5 combo but qld already $1.75 favs for game 2 ???

[ExodusNZ]

nice collect on the 1-12 & U/34.5 combo but qld already $1.75 favs for game 2 ???

Yea no way they play that bad again + at home

[ExodusNZ]

Too early to blindly jump on Queensland -2.5?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Blake Ferguson = Dumb Khunt

The phucking NSW team is self-imploding.

Injured fullbacks, injured props, now brain-dead players pissing away a career many of us would dream of.

WTF is wrong with these gumbies?

[sando]

Blake Ferguson = Dumb Khunt

The phucking NSW team is self-imploding.

Injured fullbacks, injured props, now brain-dead players pissing away a career many of us would dream of.

WTF is wrong with these gumbies?

Easy mate, I thought you bled Blue as well?

Fukcing Ferguson!!! Double blow for me as a Blues and a Raiders boy.

What more can go wrong for the Blues before kick-off??

[gimps_77]

as a qld'er im loving it....implode away

[gimps_77]

be interesting to see what QLD does here.

The reason why they have won so much is due to having a strong nucleus, but are changes due in order to keep winning?

I rekon the time is now for change, dont wait for game 3 but bring in new blood now.

Take out Harrison, possibly even McQueen from Game 1 and inject in Pap from Raiders and either Hannat or McQuire from the bronces. Both players were barnstorming for the broncs tonight.

I even think the backs could do with a change. Take out boyd and bring in Oneil from the storm, possibly even move inglis to fullback and put Billy on the wings.

MY APOLOGY FOR THE SPELLING - using the phone

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Easy mate, I thought you bled Blue as well?

Fukcing Ferguson!!! Double blow for me as a Blues and a Raiders boy.

What more can go wrong for the Blues before kick-off??

Of course I do.
That's what pisses me off.
This idiot finally gets a bit of form and makes Origin, then proceeds to hang out with that moron Dugan and gets himself in hot water.
My only surprise is that Todd Carney was nowhere in the picture.

First Tamou drink-driving with no licence, now Ferguson hitting the piss, then hitting a woman (allegedly i might add).


As for QLD, why panic?
What has served them so well has been their stability and continuity.
They lose one game and everyone is calling on them to change a winning formula?
The reason for mine is that they fell into NSW's trap of picking mobile backrowers instead of props.
They won 7 in a row because they always had a solid 4 prop rotation (from Petero, Scott, Hannant, Price, Shillington, Webb)

In Game 1 this year, the bench was entirely made up of backrowers, hence why they lost.
No platform for the halves to work their magic.
No coincidence that Cronk and Thurston struggled when they had no go forward.

I'd leave their backline as is and bring in Hannant and McGuire, dropping McQueen and Te'o.
If they want Papalii, take Gillett out.

The funny thing is, QLD could lose their top 2 players in their key 1,6,7,9 positions and still have a gun on standby.

Fullback - Slater, Inglis, Boyd, Barba

Halves - Thurston, Cronk, Cherry-Evans, Prince

Hooker - Smith, Ballin, Friend