AFL 2013, Lookingtostart *

[Lookingtostart]

Here's my 2013 AFL thread, you're welcome to critique and give advice, we're all here to make money!

I have wondered why the Crows line is so generous, then I realise I'm right here and can see that it's a little wet, and Crows with some injury concerns... of-course. But I still like the Crows. The weather isn't too bad for football, it's only a little wet though enough to be slippery, also very cloudy. There's possible showers, I don't think it's going to rain, typical Adelaide, though conditions will still affect scoring IMO.

Being round 1, I wouldn't be too surprised at anything, just had a look on Bet365, they have a pic up of an Adelaide Crow, which is a bit worrying since I have gone for Crows. I hope Crows can pick up where they left off, if so, even in the slight wet, they should be too good and a class above Essendon.

I like Port ML, good value above $2.00, either Hinkley makes the same mistakes as Primus did (Port loss) or he doesn't (Port win). Port were #1 or #2 at contested clearances last year, they just had no one to kick to afterwards... fix that and Port will be much better this season. I think they will.

Crows -13.5
Port ML.

[Lookingtostart]

Shouldn't fade b e t 3 6 5...

[Lookingtostart]

Eagles ML. Freo have been competitive against Eagles in the last few Derbies, the lines seem to reflect that. I'm very surprised that the line is +2.5 (b et 3 6 5) for the Eagles, I'm going with Benrama on this one.

[benrama]

Like it my friend, Freo can win this no doubt but I think the Eagles hold too much firepower. Lets get this!

[Lookingtostart]

Hang in there, lets get on Port!

[Lookingtostart]

Kangaroos ML, for a simple fun bet. I don't know much about how either of these teams prepared, Roos can be a funny unpredictable team but they do better at Etihad Stadium. I won't be surprised at any result, so the ML value @ $2.49 is nice. Round 1 always throws upsets, when no one really knows where teams stand, $2.10 + is the play for me.

[Lookingtostart]

Saints +17.5, I think they're solid enough, still. Tigers may still be pretenders this years, 17 points is a fair chunk for a game that I think will be reasonably close.

[benrama]

We got it brother - but not sure if we deserved it ...

[Lookingtostart]

Thanks Benrama , , was there any doubt? I did say 17.5 is a fair chunk for the Saints...

[Lookingtostart]

Round 1
Crows,
Eagles,
Port,
Kangaroos,

Round 2
Saints,

[Lookingtostart]

Gold Coast Suns, +43.5,
I think weather may keep the line closer in this match, also, it's a fairly large handicap and Sydney may pace themselves.

Brisbane Lions +5.5 and +2.5, Brisbane will be eager to make up for last week, they have much more to give, they play well at home against the Crows.

Bulldogs +20.5,
that's a fair chunk, I think Freo are good enough to beat them, they have done very well away and at Etihad under Ross Lyon, but Bulldogs have it in them to keep the score closer.

[benrama]

I'm thinking same way on Swans game, it's been raining all day on and off again. Wanted to play the under but I think books have it about right at 170.

Freo are a pretty impressive side, that's a scary bet on the bulldogs.

BOL.

[Lookingtostart]

Eagles ML,
Eagles/Hawks U 188.5,
Cats/Kangaroos O 199.5,
Kangaroos 1st quarter +3.5,

[Lookingtostart]

Round 1
Crows,
Eagles,
Port,
Kangaroos,

Round 2
Saints,
Suns,
Lions,
Bulldogs,

[benrama]

Looks like we have similar games we like today, it'll be feast or famine - good luck!

[Lookingtostart]

Looks like we have similar games we like today, it'll be feast or famine - good luck!

Actually, I'm tailing a little , but I was leaning on Eagles ML anyway, and it should be a close contest and the under.

[benrama]

Haha well as always tail at your own risk!

Over in the Cats/North game is definitely my pick of the day, we're only getting a <200 number due to the round 1 results.

[Lookingtostart]

Round 1
Crows,
Eagles,
Port,
Kangaroos,

Round 2
Saints,
Suns,
Lions,
Bulldogs,
Eagles ML,
Eagles/Hawks U 188.5,
Cats/Kangaroos O 199.5,
Kangaroos 1st quarter +3.5,

[Lookingtostart]

Round 1
Crows,
Eagles,
Port,
Kangaroos,

Round 2
Saints,
Suns,
Lions,
Bulldogs,
Eagles ML,
Eagles/Hawks U 188.5,
Cats/Kangaroos O 199.5,
Kangaroos 1st quarter +3.5,

Round 3
Swans 1st half -4.5,

[Lookingtostart]

Port vs Crows, so much to think about.

[Lookingtostart]

Fremantle -12.5 and -14.5 on Pinnacle and Bet365,

Fremantle -35.5 also, a smaller amount.

[Crowing Capers]

freo 1-39 solid IMO

[Lookingtostart]

If Freo win by 38 points, everyone's happy.

[Lookingtostart]

Round 1
Crows,
Eagles,
Port,
Kangaroos,

Round 2
Saints,
Suns,
Lions,
Bulldogs,
Eagles ML,
Eagles/Hawks U 188.5,
Cats/Kangaroos O 199.5,
Kangaroos 1st quarter +3.5,

Round 3
Swans 1st half -4.5,
Fremantle -12.5 and -14.5 on Pinnacle and Bet365,
Fremantle -35.5 also, a smaller amount.

Round 5
Port ML

I'm not posting unit amounts because it's too much work to go back and forth and work out how much and where, my units are small except for a few. Ports win over Melbourne has covered almost all the losses so far, other wins have gotten me to a stage where I'm about even.

I'm confident with Port, not sure if the ins/outs for both teams say much. Would rather Pittard be fit to play but not a bad replacement for him in Lewis Stevenson.

[Lookingtostart]

Was procrastinating at TAB whether to go ML or -5.5 on Port, went ML. ML on Pinnacle as well.