HBD Cheat Sheets

BGboothA · 07-20-12, 03:38 PM

Saturday, July 21st

Arlington Park
http://bit.ly/OffCbr

Charlestown
http://bit.ly/PnpGP5

Colonial
http://bit.ly/PsaGmn

Del Mar
http://bit.ly/LDwiMa

Emerald Downs
http://bit.ly/NnHTA4

Evangeline
http://bit.ly/NHGwrX

Hastings
http://bit.ly/M1dSX2

Louisiana Downs
http://bit.ly/OffRTV

Monmouth
http://bit.ly/SMhGL5

Mountaineer
http://bit.ly/LyE3OQ

Parx
http://bit.ly/NQ84PL

Prarie Meadows
http://bit.ly/O4nbn5

Saratoga
http://bit.ly/MAeAe1

Woodbine
http://bit.ly/NEDU0G

BGboothA · 07-20-12, 04:01 PM

Stats going into tomorrow

Surface	Top Tier	Top 4
Dirt	47.8%	80.3%
Poly	50.0%	71.7%
Turf	45.0%	68.9%

Furlongs	Top Tier	Top 4
4.50	75.0%	87.5%
5.00	47.1%	76.5%
5.50	48.6%	88.6%
6.00	42.2%	78.1%
6.50	37.5%	83.3%
7.00	33.3%	80.0%
7.50	50.0%	50.0%
8.00	51.2%	79.1%
8.32	20.0%	70.0%
8.50	37.0%	70.4%
9.00	0.0%	50.0%
9.50	100.0%	100.0%
10.00	100.0%	100.0%
12.00	0.0%	0.0%

Type	Top Tier	Top 4
Maiden	42.3%	84.6%
Claim	43.5%	73.3%
Allowance	37.0%	85.2%
Stakes	64.7%	82.4%
Maid Sp Wt	35.7%	85.7%
Opt.Claim	57.1%	71.4%

Track	Top Tier	Top 4
PRM	37.0%	88.9%
FEX	65.4%	88.5%
CBY	0.0%	87.5%
EMD	59.2%	83.7%
HST	50.0%	83.3%
MNR	52.5%	82.5%
PARX	47.5%	80.0%
CNL	60.0%	80.0%
WOX	53.5%	76.7%
CRC	42.9%	74.3%
MTH	42.9%	74.3%
CTX	55.6%	74.1%
BEL	45.3%	73.6%
HOL	45.8%	70.8%
GG	50.0%	70.0%
LAD	41.7%	69.4%
CD	32.3%	61.3%
APX	44.4%	61.1%

MrBrown · 07-20-12, 06:40 PM

Thank you

Arletta · 07-20-12, 06:59 PM

Great work. Look forward to seeing how they do tomorrow. Thanks!

TonyP · 07-20-12, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by BGboothA

Sorry boys,

I just got some free time and I am going to run some tracks for Tomorrow Saturday the 21st. Thinking, Parx, Saratoga, Del Mar, Emerald, where else you guys want?

Sounds good to me

BGboothA · 07-20-12, 07:25 PM

Just keep in mind, I have not been able to figure out Poly, is kicking my ass, as is Turf.

Right now, Sprints on Dirt have the best win percentage.

I have made a small adjustment to the Turf races, so I am interested to see how those turn out tomorrow. May make some adjustments to the poly surfaces after tomorrows results.

I will also put up Sundays Cards later tomorrow afternoon when it becomes available.

BGboothA · 07-20-12, 07:40 PM

Just realized I posted DELAWARE's picks instead of DEL MAR's picks...fixing it now.

brucedenton · 07-20-12, 08:05 PM

Thank you BGBooth.

JakeLc · 07-20-12, 08:22 PM

I have a suggestion for synthetics. I see you have early energy listed on your sheets. The early energy profiles for synthetics are completely different from conventional dirt.As you accumulate more data you will see some eye-opening things in regards to winning early energy profiles on synthetics.

BGboothA · 07-20-12, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by JakeLc

I have a suggestion for synthetics. I see you have early energy listed on your sheets. The early energy profiles for synthetics are completely different from conventional dirt.As you accumulate more data you will see some eye-opening things in regards to winning early energy profiles on synthetics.

Noted....in which way...I can pull up all of my Hollywood and Arlington park and look at EP% in regards to synthetic surfaces. Should have about fifty races or so I can look at

TonyP · 07-20-12, 10:04 PM

Think its the pace of turf racing is why your turf picks do not do as good as conventional dirt along the same thing as Jakelc noted about poly. Also some poly plays different , I mostly capp poly the same way as turf and this seems to work well with a few exceptions.

BGboothA · 07-21-12, 09:01 AM

Kinda funny that the most downloaded track is Arlington Park, the worst track according to my history.

JakeLc · 07-21-12, 09:29 AM

Hollywood plays the most similar to conventional dirt.
The winning early energy "profile" for synthetic surfaces will fall into some very distinctive ranges.If you keep track of that as you accumulate data you will start to see the ranges form.

joeyp1222 · 07-21-12, 12:25 PM

hit the 1st 1 for 1 nice job bg

joeyp1222 · 07-21-12, 01:11 PM

A REAL BEAUTY IN THE 3RD AT SARATOGA BG TOP 3 HORSES

Saratoga on Jul 21 2012

Race 3 6F Dirt Purse: $60000.00 Fast / Firm Prtly Sunny
#	Name	Jockey/Driver	Win	Place	Show
5	Clear Pasaj	Rajiv Maragh	8.80	4.90	3.80
8	Cinematize	Ramon A. Dominguez		4.20	3.40
7	Pennymine	Cornelio H. Velasquez			11.20

Bet Type	Runners	Pay Out
Exacta	5/8	35.80
Trifecta	5/8/7	926.00

BGboothA · 07-21-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by joeyp1222

A REAL BEAUTY IN THE 3RD AT SARATOGA BG TOP 3 HORSES

Saratoga on Jul 21 2012

Race 3 6F Dirt Purse: $60000.00 Fast / Firm Prtly Sunny
#	Name	Jockey/Driver	Win	Place	Show
5	Clear Pasaj	Rajiv Maragh	8.80	4.90	3.80
8	Cinematize	Ramon A. Dominguez		4.20	3.40
7	Pennymine	Cornelio H. Velasquez			11.20

Bet Type	Runners	Pay Out
Exacta	5/8	35.80
Trifecta	5/8/7	926.00

I hit the exacta. But didn't play the tri. Bummer.

BGboothA · 07-21-12, 06:32 PM

And another nice Exacta!!!!!

9th race - Saratoga - July 21, 2012

Video Race Replay

2

Shrewd One

8.50

4.30

3.40

5

Spin Out

8.10

5.10

9

Major Gain

5.40

$2 Daily Double 7-2 82.50

$2 Exacta 2-5 65.00

BGboothA · 07-21-12, 06:56 PM

Hey guys crazy day today...I will get Tomorrows up for a few tracks, but not as many probably. But it won't be until later tonight, probably around 8-10pm PST.

BGboothA · 07-21-12, 11:12 PM

7	Danny's Chant	26.40	7.80	4.20
4	Lots of Cash		4.80	3.10
5	Tecolote			2.40

$2 Triactor 7-4-5 391.50

$2 Exactor 7-4 120.00

8th race - Hastings Racecourse - July 21, 2012

2

Bamboo Dream

7.30

4.40

2.80

9

Willamette

4.00

2.60

6

Alwaysredonsunday

2.90

$2 Triactor 2-9-6 91.80

$2 Daily Double 4-2 33.10

Top three horses in the 4th and the 8th at Hastings...should have played Hastings today apparently.

BGboothA · 07-21-12, 11:17 PM

1st race - Arlington Park - July 21, 2012

Video Race Replay

3

At the Finish

6.80

4.40

3.00

8

A Shot Away

8.20

4.40

2

Brezing Rain

3.20

$2 Exacta 3-8 76.80

$0.10 Superfecta 3-8-2-5 39.37

$0.50 Trifecta 3-8-2 67.50

Nice Exacta at AP....

5	Whoopie I Ki O	8.00	4.40	3.20
9	Laugh It Off		9.80	5.00
6	Double Crossing (IRE)			4.20

$2 Daily Double 6-5 23.20

$2 Exacta 5-9 88.40

$0.10 Superfecta 5-9-6-1 122.16

$0.50 Trifecta 5-9-6 143.50

Straight nailed the exacta!!!! BOOM, didn't bet it of course, because I have sucked at AP, but damn nailed this one.

7	La Tia	9.60	4.20	3.80
8	Sky Dreamer		5.20	3.60
2	Ire			4.80

$2 Daily Double 1-7 53.00

$2 Exacta 7-8 46.00

$0.10 Superfecta 7-8-2-1 44.01

Another $$$$ Super!!

BGboothA · 07-21-12, 11:18 PM

For the record!!! PARX sucked butt today.

BGboothA · 07-21-12, 11:18 PM

Didn't go through all the tracks yet, going to get tomorrows tracks up and get to a real keyboad before I start entering in too much data.

BGboothA · 07-22-12, 12:05 AM

SUNDAY, JULY 22nd

Arlington Park
http://bit.ly/OffCbr

Del Mar
http://bit.ly/LDwiMa

Emerald Downs
http://bit.ly/NnHTA4

Hastings
http://bit.ly/M1dSX2

Louisiana Downs
http://bit.ly/OffRTV

Parx
http://bit.ly/NQ84PL

Saratoga
http://bit.ly/MAeAe1

Sorry for the delay getting them up....my goal is to play quite a bit tomorrow. and then spend Monday and Tuesday inputting results into the result database and I will share my new totals.

I also, may have some tweaks in mind for Turf, but want to see some of the stats compiled first.

derby44 · 07-22-12, 08:19 AM

Hello--when I click on a link I get a white page with nothing on it--and at the top it says new tab. Can you suggest a way for me to rectify this issue? Thanks very much.

BGboothA · 07-22-12, 10:17 AM

It's a PDF file. Try rigt clicking (assuming you are windows based ) and choosing save as.

derby44 · 07-22-12, 10:30 AM

Thank you very much I can now open the file--much appreciated--best of luck.

brucedenton · 07-22-12, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

For the record!!! PARX sucked butt today.

I second your statement.

brucedenton · 07-22-12, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

For the record!!! PARX sucked butt today.

I think Parx sucks because the races are so fixed. I really believe that. I think alot of shady things have been gone on for many years there. That being the case, NO SYSTEM would work.

BGboothA · 07-22-12, 10:46 AM

The strange thing about part for me is that historically it has been one of my most consistent. We will see today.

Arletta · 07-27-12, 05:37 PM

Any charts for this weekend?

BGboothA · 07-27-12, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by Arletta

Any charts for this weekend?

Yeah will run Sunday's for sure, not sure about tomorrows....Been a crazy week in the BGboothA household. New baby girl came this week.

Arletta · 07-27-12, 08:57 PM

awww... Congrats!!!

Enjoy the new baby Booth.... We can wait until things settle down.

BGboothA · 07-27-12, 09:32 PM

Yeah Sorry boys, no way am I going to get things up for tomorrow. We are still working on autmating things to make it easier and quicker. But no way I will get tomorrows up. I will get a full card for Sunday up though.

Plus some changes...
1. Per MrBrown's idea, the horses are now ordered by our rankings on the sheet instead of by post number. We are still working on the whole post number, program number problem.
2. Some added new features to attempt to get closer to good results on turf

DDT · 07-27-12, 11:15 PM

Thanks BG

BGboothA · 07-28-12, 07:46 PM

Sorry for not putting them up earlier in the week. Had the kid this week, and my partners don't want to pay the $6/day on days when we aren't going to play our own bankroll.

Some Changes:

Ordered Horses: This took longer than I thought it would, had to reorder a bunch of things in order to get this to work. But the horses are no longer in numerical order, they are ordered in the order that our system puts them in. This should help us in terms of scratches and finding the next horse in line. (thanks Mr.Brown for the idea)

Changes to Turf and Synthetic formula: I spent my time in the hospital this week, revisiting hundreds of races and results focusing on our Turf and Poly races. I made two major tweaks to the math involved in these conditions, and re-ran those races and had a positive gain as a result. No promises here, but it seems to be getting closer to something usable on those surfaces. We shall see.

Tracks for Sunday, July 29th

Portland Meadows (Showvivor)
http://bit.ly/OnCtVJ

Parx
http://bit.ly/MTd4Qt

Louisiana Downs
http://bit.ly/MTd17h

Del Mar
http://bit.ly/Qy8ZB1

Canterbury
http://bit.ly/N4hkev

Calder Race Course
http://bit.ly/MTcPVH

Arlington Park
http://bit.ly/N4hbI2

Saratoga
http://bit.ly/MAeAe1

Emerald Downs
http://bit.ly/NnHTA4

Charlestown
http://bit.ly/PnpGP5

Suggestions? Ideas?
What do you guys think? Any changes or ideas that you would like to see here? Questions? The goal in the coming weeks would be to have these ready Wednesday through Sunday. But again, this is still in the baby faze....I am still working on some of the bugs that lists horses twice in the top four picks and our program # problem, that I don't have a good idea on fixing quite yet.