Post best bet or follow ups of the day

**harthebar** · 11-11-16, 03:35 PM

Jbex need help two post above........can you figure out the pay outs in the show pool........what is formula and lets just say the 6 horse had 500 on him not 63 can you figure the payouts....now that im on the subject...when we see the actual pool on the tote.is the 20 % taken out or is it after the race

**harthebar** · 11-11-16, 03:36 PM

Calculating Place and Show Payouts

http://jimbomatthews.blogspot.com/2012/12/calculating-place-and-show-payouts.html

**JBEX** · 11-11-16, 06:19 PM

If track take not taken out already which I think is the case deduct 20% from 773 and divide that by 3..take that amount and divide by amount on that particular horse ..then multiply that by 2..not sure if I'm right with this to be honest

**JBEX** · 11-11-16, 06:59 PM

CD R8 Friday

$2.60
10.50-1 (23/9)2.5
$7 ex...$14.60
54-1 (14/1.8) 8
$56 triple ..$309...450% ol
9.30-1 (12/10)1.2
$67 super..$1056 ..1400% + ol

(a) 1-5
(b-e) 9-1 through 12-1
(f) 54-1

a/b-e/f*

$4 returns $155

a/b-e/b-e/f
a/b-e/f/b-e*

$24 returns $528
exactly 21-1

**harthebar** · 11-11-16, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

If track take not taken out already which I think is the case deduct 20% from 773 and divide that by 3..take that amount and divide by amount on that particular horse ..then multiply that by 2..not sure if I'm right with this to be honest

Your on right track. ....I was just thinking of a idea. I want to figure my math. You got me going now. With this. Thanks J

**JBEX** · 11-11-16, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

CD R8 Friday

$2.60
10.50-1 (23/9)2.5
$7 ex...$14.60
54-1 (14/1.8) 8
$56 triple ..$309...450% ol
9.30-1 (12/10)1.2
$67 super..$1056 ..1400% + ol

(a) 1-5
(b-e) 9-1 through 12-1
(f) 54-1

a/b-e/f*

$4 returns $155

a/b-e/b-e/f
a/b-e/f/b-e*

$24 returns $528
exactly 21-1

at 1/5 fav has a a 75% chance to win...you're longshot only has to make 3rd or 4th at those odds. .2 of the open spots have to be filled by 4 of the next lowest odds horses... $1056 pretty generous payoff even without using the formula imo

**harthebar** · 11-12-16, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

at 1/5 fav has a a 75% chance to win...you're longshot only has to make 3rd or 4th at those odds. .2 of the open spots have to be filled by 4 of the next lowest odds horses... $1056 pretty generous payoff even without using the formula imo

race 8 at cd was that a horse you picked or just a random horse icant find it....wow i need to see chart im going to hunt it down

Equibase | Churchill Downs Charts

http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=11/11/2016&cy=USA&rn=8

**harthebar** · 11-12-16, 12:19 PM

Undercover Agent, in Race 1 at Aqueduct

**harthebar** · 11-12-16, 12:24 PM

Kristi's Copilot on 11/12/2016 in Race 6 at Del Mar.
Singsong on 11/12/2016 in Race 3 at Aqueduct
Ten Hut is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 4 at Laurel Park
Governor Malibu is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 8 at Aqueduct

Vulcan's Forge is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 8 at Aqueduct

Lirica is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 6 at Gulfstream Park West

Aztec Warrior is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 1 at Del Mar

:Invisible Crown is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 1 at Laurel Park.
Daftar is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 1 at Laurel Park.
Birchwood Road is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 9 at Aqueduct.

Shkspeare Shaliyah on 11/12/2016 in Race 9 at Aqueduct.

Blue Strike is scheduled to run on 11/12/2016 in Race 6 at Freehold Raceway trifecta

:Invisible Crown scrDaftar scr

**JBEX** · 11-12-16, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

race 8 at cd was that a horse you picked or just a random horse icant find it....wow i need to see chart im going to hunt it down

http://www.equibase.com/premium /cha...16&cy=USA&rn=8

I didn't pick that race and should have been more clear about that ..it's a great example of using the formula assuming the 54-1 was your pick for underneath..ridiculous overlays,cluster of like odds horses and an odds on favorite so easy to play correctly

**JBEX** · 11-12-16, 04:42 PM

didn't play.. example
CD R6

ab..9-5*2-1
cde..8-1*9-1*10-1
f..53-1

ab/ab/f
ab/f/ab*

$4 returns $384

should pay about 400..did pay 768 ($2)

I wouldn't have super here because would only cover (f)
in 3rd and 4th and came in 2nd..if you played in 2nd the super was an approximate 600% ol..also a slightly different strategy could be used here..actually now that I think about it you could cover in 3 spots with a minimal investment since both favs are about same odds..

ab/f/ab/c-e*
ab/ab/f/c-e
ab/ab/c-e/f

*$18 returns $4198

not a reach at all imo..big odds gap 2 favs and 2nd odds group (c-e)..I appreciate the fact you actually have to like and have the bomb..main point here is to show overlays
and betting strategy

**harthebar** · 11-13-16, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

didn't play.. example
CD R6

ab..9-5*2-1
cde..8-1*9-1*10-1
f..53-1

ab/ab/f
ab/f/ab*

$4 returns $384

should pay about 400..did pay 768 ($2)

I wouldn't have super here because would only cover (f)
in 3rd and 4th and came in 2nd..if you played in 2nd the super was an approximate 600% ol..also a slightly different strategy could be used here..actually now that I think about it you could cover in 3 spots with a minimal investment since both favs are about same odds..

ab/f/ab/c-e*
ab/ab/f/c-e
ab/ab/c-e/f

*$18 returns $4198

not a reach at all imo..big odds gap 2 favs and 2nd odds group (c-e)..I appreciate the fact you actually have to like and have the bomb..main point here is to show overlays
and betting strategy

i go slow, but im starting to see it clear,,,,,just curious you make a lot of superfecta and trifecta plays....what is your favorite type of play......do you go thru that if time permits,

**harthebar** · 11-13-16, 12:21 PM

Easy Way Out is scheduled to run on 11/13/2016 in Race 4 at Aqueduct.
Tiznow's Smile is scheduled to run on 11/13/2016 in Race 6 at Aqueduct
Nimble Foot (Ire) is scheduled to run on 11/13/2016 in Race 7 at Aqueduct
Mo Maverick is scheduled to run on 11/13/2016 in Race 1 at Aqueduct.
Serbian Syclone on 11/13/2016 in Race 5 at Del Mar
Storied Lady scheduled to run on 11/13/2016 in Race 8 at AqueductMo Maverick is scheduled to run on 11/13/2016 in Race 1 at Aqueduct
Here Comes R J is scheduled to run on 11/13/2016 in Race 6 at Mountaineer

**harthebar** · 11-13-16, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

http://jimbomatthews.blogspot.com/20...w-payouts.html

I read it JBEX. Ez to follow

**JBEX** · 11-13-16, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

i go slow, but im starting to see it clear,,,,,just curious you make a lot of superfecta and trifecta plays....what is your favorite type of play......do you go thru that if time permits,

I for the most part don't play except on big days..lack the funds but really enjoy the thought process..not trying to beat a dead horse but the edges to be had playing vertical
bets are huge..requires a lot of patience but the rewards are worth it...if you are just a win bettor and really good you probably have around a 10% edge long haul..the triples and supers I've shown in here dwarf that figure

**JBEX** · 11-14-16, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

I for the most part don't play except on big days..lack the funds but really enjoy the thought process..not trying to beat a dead horse but the edges to be had playing vertical
bets are huge..requires a lot of patience but the rewards are worth it...if you are just a win bettor and really good you probably have around a 10% edge long haul..the triples and supers I've shown in here dwarf that figure

I mean in edge not payoff amounts

**harthebar** · 11-14-16, 12:32 PM

Win Four Adalyn is scheduled to run on 11/14/2016 in Race 2 at Yonkers Raceway.

Just a reminder:Love Blues is scheduled to run on 11/14/2016 in Race 1 at Finger Lakes

Mel Mara dover downs. Race 10

**harthebar** · 11-15-16, 11:33 AM

Bass Player is scheduled to run on 11/15/2016 in Race 8 at Plainridge

**harthebar** · 11-15-16, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

Bass Player is scheduled to run on 11/15/2016 in Race 8 at Plainridge

Winner. He is getting real good. You will get a price when they move him up

**harthebar** · 11-15-16, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

Win Four Adalyn is scheduled to run on 11/14/2016 in Race 2 at Yonkers Raceway.

Just a reminder:Love Blues is scheduled to run on 11/14/2016 in Race 1 at Finger Lakes

Mel Mara dover downs. Race 10

Mel mare winner
Love Blues winner 8.40

**harthebar** · 11-15-16, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

I for the most part don't play except on big days..lack the funds but really enjoy the thought process..not trying to beat a dead horse but the edges to be had playing vertical
bets are huge..requires a lot of patience but the rewards are worth it...if you are just a win bettor and really good you probably have around a 10% edge long haul..the triples and supers I've shown in here dwarf that figure

you dont play that much.....well your smart i guess...do you play on sbr sports book..............did you say your from new york jbex..someone did...not sure if it was you...they go to aqueduct a lot......you have a favorite sports room.....funny i live in atlantic city...never go to the casinos......borgata is the only horse room now.......if i go its poker....a passion of mine..that i dont do hardly at all

**harthebar** · 11-16-16, 01:32 PM

Bellelarama is scheduled to run on 11/16/2016 in Race 9 at Aqueduct

**harthebar** · 11-16-16, 01:33 PM

Tetradrachm is entered today at GULFSTREAM PARK WEST.
race 4

**harthebar** · 11-16-16, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

Bellelarama is scheduled to run on 11/16/2016 in Race 9 at Aqueduct

Winner. 6.10

**JBEX** · 11-16-16, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

you dont play that much.....well your smart i guess...do you play on sbr sports book..............did you say your from new york jbex..someone did...not sure if it was you...they go to aqueduct a lot......you have a favorite sports room.....funny i live in atlantic city...never go to the casinos......borgata is the only horse room now.......if i go its poker....a passion of mine..that i dont do hardly at all

20 miles north of nyc.. not playing takes no enjoyment
out of the game for me ..don't play the sbr race book.. aware borgata's only casino that has a race book and been there a couple of times.. never played poker but enjoy dabbling in sports betting (football) a bit..bet small and advise some friends.. database systems what I like the best

**JBEX** · 11-16-16, 10:38 PM

aqu R4
example.. not picked

3.90
7-1 (48/12.5)4
16
30-1 (36/3.3)11
176 triple... 242=38% ol
5-1 (33/16.5)2
352 super.. 1172 =233% ol

(a )4-5
(b-e) 4-1 through 8-1
(f) 30-1

a/bcde/f*
a/f/bcde

8 returns 121**

** I'd have double on 3rd vs 2nd in triples making return on this $12 gets back $242

a/bcde/bcde/f
a/bcde/f/bcde*

24 returns 586

**harthebar** · 11-17-16, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

20 miles north of nyc.. not playing takes no enjoyment
out of the game for me ..don't play the sbr race book.. aware borgata's only casino that has a race book and been there a couple of times.. never played poker but enjoy dabbling in sports betting (football) a bit..bet small and advise some friends.. database systems what I like the best

Database system. ?

**harthebar** · 11-17-16, 09:49 AM

Aloha Rose is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 10 at Churchill Downs

**harthebar** · 11-17-16, 09:53 AM

Pinchpenny scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 1
Buttercup Gold on 11/17/2016 in Race 2 at Del Mar

:Ocala Jim is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 5 at Aqueduct.

iscreet Image is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 7 at Aqueduct

:Show Giant is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 6 at Aqueduct.
Courtly Kitty is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 7 at Aqueduct

:Passporttovictory is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 7 at Aqueduct.

:Passionate Emotion is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 6 at Del Mar.

Eagle Screams on 11/17/2016 in Race 3 at Del Mar

**JBEX** · 11-17-16, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

Database system. ?

nfl example

non division road dogs > 4 off a division home favorite loss

ncaaf

conference home favorites >10 after non conference road favorite loss

tip of the iceberg.. things like these can be figured out
running a query on a sports database. I just follow others who do the investigating and don't run queries myself

**JBEX** · 11-17-16, 02:10 PM

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/applying-successful-trends-to-college-football-betting-in-week-12/76283

**JBEX** · 11-17-16, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/pick...-week-12/76283

here's another..
nfl
2nd straight road game..
played on grass today..
team has worse record than opponent ..
team win% between 0-75
not getting more than 3 points

25-0 ATS since 2008..avg cover 12+ pts
green bay

KillerSports

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=A+and+REG+and+p%3AA+and+line%3C%3D3+and+surface%3Dgrass+and++WP%3Co%3AWP+and+0%3CWP%3C75+and+season+%3E%3D2008&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

**harthebar** · 11-17-16, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

Pinchpenny scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 1
Buttercup Gold on 11/17/2016 in Race 2 at Del Mar

:Ocala Jim is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 5 at Aqueduct.

iscreet Image is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 7 at Aqueduct

:Show Giant is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 6 at Aqueduct.
Courtly Kitty is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 7 at Aqueduct

:Passporttovictory is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 7 at Aqueduct.

:Passionate Emotion is scheduled to run on 11/17/2016 in Race 6 at Del Mar.

Eagle Screams on 11/17/2016 in Race 3 at Del Mar

Show Giant. Winner 15.80
Court ly. Kitty. 2nd
Ocala Jim. Winner 22.60

**harthebar** · 11-17-16, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

here's another..
nfl
2nd straight road game..
played on grass today..
team has worse record than opponent ..
team win% between 0-75
not getting more than 3 points

25-0 ATS since 2008..avg cover 12+ pts
green bay

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sd...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Is this an example or does it show. Winner. Love the breakdown. What team. .....what teams are this week.

**JBEX** · 11-17-16, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

Is this an example or does it show. Winner. Love the breakdown. What team. .....what teams are this week.

packers are the play this week.. scroll down to 11/20 to see that..they are a play next week also (see 11/28) if they are not getting more than 3 points.. just stick to this week for now though