4 year olds and up

thezbar · 02-03-12, 10:26 PM

Tapizar prevents me from wagering in this race. His best is best BUT he didn't fire second time off the shelve last year. Can't play him either can I bet against him as this is his second start this year. I'll be watching for sure. Maybe Prayer for Relief is a play at 4/1 or better doubt he'll be that high however.

str · 02-04-12, 10:04 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

This Saturday at Santa Anita, the Strub stakes.

8 horse field, that I have looking something like this:

#-----SPEED----------STALK----------CLOSE
1---------------------- Jaycito 76
2-----------Prayer for Relief 99
3---------------------------------------- Beer Meister 83
4----- Ultimate Eagle 98
5---------------------------------------- Clubhouse Ride 81
6 --------------------------------------- Indian Winter 91
7 -----Tapizar 100
8 --------------------------------------- Balladry 92

Color coding is relative to the horse's capacity. Bold green - green (both positive) - blue (neutral) - red (negative).
I added a projected Beyer figure. Depending on tote board I may play an exacta box 2-4-7. Indian Winter with outside shot.

Just to be clear, odds are not considered in the color coding. Colors only attempt to reflect where a horse will run within his own range.

So my question is, is Ultimate Eagle fast enough to keep Tapizar from clearing him, and therefore create a speed duel? Tapizer needs to be 2 lengths faster than Ultimate Eagle in order to clear him and drop over. If so, Prayer for Relief sits 3rd by himself behind a duel with and outside position once they straighten away down the backside( saving ground around the 1st turn and keep the outside eye clear from the 5/8ths pole home) and engages the pair as they turn for home.
Or could it be a 3 way duel and set it up for a closer?
Can I see a form ? I know I could buy one on DRF but....

thezbar · 02-04-12, 11:11 AM

I was on track when Ultimate Eagle went wire to wire on the grass at $79.00 plus. I was in an ontrack capping contest and that win blew me out of contention. IMO The eagle doesn't have the dirt type speed that Tapizar has displayed. I see a clear lead for Tapizer as a greater possibility than a speed duel with U.E. Speed pressure could come from Indian Winter Blinkers on, exiting a six furlong race. That's the pace X factor. Prayer for Relief may or may not fall into a trip, we'll see.

Dark Horse · 02-04-12, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by str

So my question is, is Ultimate Eagle fast enough to keep Tapizar from clearing him, and therefore create a speed duel? Tapizer needs to be 2 lengths faster than Ultimate Eagle in order to clear him and drop over. If so, Prayer for Relief sits 3rd by himself behind a duel with and outside position once they straighten away down the backside( saving ground around the 1st turn and keep the outside eye clear from the 5/8ths pole home) and engages the pair as they turn for home.
Or could it be a 3 way duel and set it up for a closer?
Can I see a form ? I know I could buy one on DRF but....

Form is attached, str.

Attached Files

SA 2-4-12 Strub - Lewis S.pdf (607.9 KB, 381 views)

Dark Horse · 02-04-12, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by thezbar

Tapizar prevents me from wagering in this race. His best is best BUT he didn't fire second time off the shelve last year. Can't play him either can I bet against him as this is his second start this year. I'll be watching for sure. Maybe Prayer for Relief is a play at 4/1 or better doubt he'll be that high however.

Tapizar wasn't really challenged last time around. I could see him better than in his last race, but Prayer for Relief (7/2 ML) has the greater improvement.

str · 02-04-12, 01:04 PM

Let's try and beat the odds on Favorite:

Tapizar got a clear lead last time and basically had everything his own way. That was 1st of the layoff. He seems to run better races 1st of time than he does 2nd off time. Plenty of horses do that and he did that previously, so I will assume that he will do that again. If he is unchallenged early and dictates his own pace, he can run a lesser race and still win. However, there are reasons to think that it might not be as easy as it might appear.

Prayer for Relief seems to be better into his 2nd and 3rd start instead of running big races 1st of the layoff. This is his 2nd start. Too me, he should definitely improve off his last race.

Jerry Hollendorfer is nobody's fool. He is 23% sprint / route. Off two sprints and blinkers on I can't imagine that his thought going in is to relax early and maybe inch up to Tapizar around the turn. Might work out like that but Blinkers on and a stretch off 2 sprints screams lead or darn close early too me.
If this horse breaks with running on his mind and that is what Blks. on and stretching out usually does , Tapizar will need to work hard to deal with him.
Looking at the last time he tried stretching out( last year), he was rank and steadied both times going long. Why would you go blks. on and want to create the same rank mess again? I don't think that you would.

So , trying to beat even money, I might try an exacta box of Prayer for Relief and Indian Winter.Heavier with Prayer on top because the difference in payoffs will be significant. A win bet on Prayer is also the play IMO in case the hopeful 2 horse duel takes place and both speeds falter.

Would really watch Indian Winter warming up also. If he is all keyed up with blks. and is warming up quite a bit instead of walking, that is a positive.

Without watching the horses warm up and seeing the odds , it is hard to say what I would do for sure but that is the approach I would take towards the race.

If the duel does take place and Prayer falters, it leaves all the others to pick up the pieces but IMO I have no idea why Prayer would falter so my thinking would be that all the horses behind him would not have enough too get past him.

I agree with Thezbar about Ultimate Eagle. I think his assessment is very solid.

That's how I see it.

Dark Horse · 02-04-12, 03:44 PM

If you say that Indian Winter is likely to go to the front I believe it. That puts all my green horses upfront. Now what? lol

str · 02-04-12, 05:41 PM

He has never been on the lead before but blinkers on is usually a way to create focus and speed. Off of 2 sprints if near the lead was not what was desired would it not make more sense to put the blks. on next time, once the stretch out was done?
The other thing that I noticed was no gate work for the blinker card. This is a requirement unless the rules have changed ( of course , it is Cal.) so I am left to assume that the horse broke for the card but was pulled back to a strong gallop before working. That is certainly a possibility. Nothing wrong with that. That type of move usually puts even more speed in the horse. It seems to me that if rating him is the plan, he will probably be rank and fighting the jock in this situation. If that takes place, why not just let him get up near the lead.

Dark Horse · 02-04-12, 05:57 PM

All bets are off for me for this race.

After three inquiries in six races (two for 10+ minutes), I'm done with SA for the day. Fwiw, Bejarano was thrown off Liaison in race 6 (cut off by a disqualified horse), but will be racing Prayer for Relief in race 8. No idea how that fall may affect him.

Dark Horse · 02-05-12, 03:06 AM

Link to the race video and story of the winner Ultimate Eagle. http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-strub-triumph

This is one amazing horse. Disease and near death kept him from being a Derby contender last year. His rider Pedroza:

"I wanted to let Corey (Nakatani) go (on Tapizar) but my horse was pulling so hard I didn’t want to choke him down," Pedroza said of his early strategy. "After that he did the rest. Without a doubt this is the best horse. He’s like a freak. Believe me this horse is just learning how to run.”

Dark Horse · 02-06-12, 03:15 PM

As a general recommendation, the Euquibase virtual stable, where you can list the horses you want to keep track of, is great! Every time a horse works out, is entered into a race, etc, they send an e-mail. Easy way to stay in touch.

john230 · 02-06-12, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

As a general recommendation, the Euquibase virtual stable, where you can list the horses you want to keep track of, is great! Every time a horse works out, is entered into a race, etc, they send an e-mail. Easy way to stay in touch.

Daily Racing form also has this feature. You can get workout updates and entries for a specific horse e-mailed to you.

Dark Horse · 02-08-12, 04:23 AM

Shackleford will run his first race of 2012 this Saturday at Gulfstream. Ruler On Ice and Flat Out will be there as well.

str · 02-08-12, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Shackleford will run his first race of 2012 this Saturday at Gulfstream. Ruler On Ice and Flat Out will be there as well.

What a great picture.
You can really see an awful lot in this.
For starter's look at the dirt spray and you can see why front runners give up when they are not where they prefer. You can also see why the box is such an advantage in comparison to down inside for the horses comfort while running.
Also, if you don't think that jockeys are all about balance, look at how much boot the rider has in the stirrup.
How about the effort in the horses eye?
Thanks for posting this.

Dark Horse · 02-08-12, 04:07 PM

Love the shot and the detail. It's the finish in the KY Derby. You can see half of Nehro, literally flying, on his way to 2nd.

Dark Horse · 02-11-12, 02:15 AM

The Donn today at Gulfstream looks like a tough race to cap. I have five horses cluttered together at the top, and then a gap to the rest of the field. Would normally walk away from a race like this, but will sleep on whether or not this is a good spot for a trifecta box. Could be some value there.

Shackleford will go to the front early, probably joined by Trickmeister. Flat Out is the strong stalker in this company, and should challenge Shackleford in the stretch. Of the closers in the field I think Soaring Empire, Hymn Book and Sangaree have the most kick. I don't think Ruler On Ice, Trickmeister, and Mission Impazible are at the top of their game. The other three horses (Where's Sterling, Redeemed, and Al Khali) are outclassed in this strong field.

harthebar · 02-11-12, 11:26 AM

do you give kindergarden kid a shot with stratches....big .blue nation in the 3rd i like,,,,,derby hopefull...just want opioion

Dark Horse · 02-11-12, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by harthebar

do you give kindergarden kid a shot with stratches....big .blue nation in the 3rd i like,,,,,derby hopefull...just want opioion

Wish I could help you out there, but I'm still working on race 10. I don't think I have the time to give your question the attention it deserves, which for me is from one to two hours per race. Otherwise I'm just guessing. Good luck.

Dark Horse · 02-11-12, 01:19 PM

Gulfstream track is sloppy today. That changes a lot. Probably a pass for me.

Dark Horse · 02-12-12, 03:34 PM

Here's the trakus chart for the above race. Love this format: http://tnetwork.trakus.com/dsi2007/G...RED&VenueID=20

Dark Horse · 02-15-12, 05:11 PM

Animal Kingdom will run this Saturday at Gulfstream.

Dark Horse · 03-02-12, 04:45 AM

Beautiful morning at Churchill Downs. Why not go for a ride on Shackleford...

Dark Horse · 03-02-12, 05:03 AM

Alright. Ultimate Eagle is back this Saturday in the 750K Santa Anita Handicap. Field of 13 horses.
And a really nice appetizer two races before that when 3 year old filly Reneesgotzip will burn up the track again in the 250K Las Virgines Stakes. I love that horse.
I've been betting horse matchups almost exclusively. Fun, but a simplified approach. Time to get back into race shape.

Just a little flavor of Reneesgotzip.