Eye On 2012 Kentucky Derby

Dark Horse · 11-20-11, 09:43 AM

Nice site to keep eye on Derby field: http://www.chasingthederby.com/p/gra...ings-list.html

Dark Horse · 11-24-11, 03:29 AM

Hollywood Prevue (G3) over 7 furlongs on Thanksgiving day.

Here are the post positions and my grade, which is relative to the capacity of each horse (bold green is best, green is good, blue is neutral, red is poor); running style is hard to determine with in some cases just one race in their PP's.
1) Sweet Swap; SCR
2) Brother Francis; close
3) Sheer Talent; stalk
4) Empire Way; stalk
5) Hodge; speed
6) So Brilliant; speed
7) Galex; stalk
8) Muchos Besos; stalk

No horse is red-flagged. Pre-race favorites So Brilliant (2-1) and Empire Way (5-2) are only neutral, so race may have some value. The ML for Sheer Talent is 12-1. Also looking at Galex at 3-1, and Brother Francis at 8-1. As always, tote board will decide value.

Attached Files

11-24-11 Hollywood race 7 2 yr olds.pdf (440.4 KB, 304 views)

Dark Horse · 11-24-11, 11:42 AM

Looks like a jockey change for Sheer Talent. Above no longer valid.

Dark Horse · 11-25-11, 12:32 AM

Didn't bet the race, so didn't bother checking. Just learned that Galex broke down during the race and was euthanized. Very sad. There are a couple more races for Derby hopefuls this weekend, but I'll have to take a few days off from the sport.

Dark Horse · 11-25-11, 08:41 AM

Hollywood Prevue: http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/stor...llywood-prevue

Of my three selections, Sheer Talent was a pass with a rider change (bad idea, in this case), Brother Francis placed, and Galex unfortunately didn't survive the race.

So Brilliant may be back for the Grade 1, $750,000 Cash Call Futurity on Dec. 17. Hope to see Brother Francis back soon as well.

Dark Horse · 11-27-11, 07:42 AM

Replays of KY Derby preps: http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL7D208C535CC69071

Dark Horse · 12-15-11, 08:30 PM

The 750K CashCall Futurity (G1) at Hollywood Park this Saturday. Thirteen horses, so there could be some value with longshots. This is the field:

1 Handsome Mike (KY)
2 Brother Francis (KY)
3 Groovin' Solo (KY)
4 Empire Way (KY)
5 Drill (KY)
6 Sky Kingdom (KY)
7 Blingo (KY)
8 Rousing Sermon (CA)
9 Liaison (KY)
10 Cozzetti (KY)
11 Majestic City (KY)
12 Basmati (KY)
13 Desormais (KY)

Dark Horse · 12-16-11, 03:57 AM

Big field, so will go in stages. Here's color coded breakdown (excellent, good, average, poor, very poor relevant to the capacity of each). Usually only the first three ratings are important. They should be translated to a speed scale, but I don't know if I'll do that here.

My first impression is that I like this batch of horses. I've read some complaints here and there about the overall quality of thoroughbreds in recent years. Wouldn't surprise me if 2012 will be different in that regard. I look forward to getting to know them in the coming year. Keep in mind that these are two year olds. They're learning to race. Blingo looks good, but has only raced once before...

Handsome Mike - speed
Brother Francis - deep closer.
Empire Way - close
Drill - not the right jockey for this horse.
Blingo - deep close
Liaison - stalk, doesn't connect here
Majestic City - speed.
Basmati - speed.

Five more to come.

Dark Horse · 12-16-11, 05:03 PM

1 Handsome Mike - speed
2 Brother Francis - deep closer.
3 Groovin Solo - no chance
4 Empire Way - close
5 Drill - not the right jockey for this horse. Horse all over the place.
6 Sky Kingdom - press speed; not connecting
7 Blingo - deep close
8 Rousing Sermon - closer. Interesting horse; not expecting much here, but keeping him on the radar.
9 Liaison - stalk, doesn't connect here
10 Cozzetti - speed? this one is borderline green/blue. Just not sure. Could go either way.
11 Majestic City - speed.
12 Basmati - speed.
13 Desormais - born in Kentucky, but raced three times in France... First race on US soil. From what I can tell I like the look of this horse, but info very limited.

Will have to let this sink in for a while, before looking at the ML's. If there's no value with the race that's fine with me. These are just basic introductions with an eye on next year.

I'm using the BRIS form for this race. With such a small sample of races I don't see much use for Beyers over BRIS figures. If someone wants to attach the DRF form I'll do a speed projection for each horse based on those figures. I prefer to wait with those projections until the horses have some more races in their history.

Dark Horse · 12-17-11, 12:46 PM

Speed conversion, based on a very small sample size of races, during a time when these horse are still developing their speed. In other words, this type of conversion becomes more reliable later in the racing career. I have no idea if it will be completely off here.

12 Basmati 96 - 20/1 ML
2 Brother Francis 92 - 20/1 ML
7 Blingo 91 - 8/1 ML
11 Majestic City 87 - 4/1 ML
4 Empire Way 85 - 12/1 ML

13 Desormais ? - 20/1 ML Still searching for his speed in the three races he ran in France.

These are not meant to predict the actual speed, but to provide a speed scale for the order in which the horses may finish. There may be some value.

Dark Horse · 12-17-11, 08:09 PM

Only Brother Francis in the money. My read of 2 year olds is very inaccurate, so I'll stick to 3 year olds and up, and a season from the Kentucky Derby to the Breeders Cup.

Dark Horse · 01-07-12, 05:45 AM

Six horses racing in the Sham today at Santa Anita, 1 mile, 100K, with Secret Circle as the clear favorite. Unless the trainers try something else, it looks like we may have four speeds, one just behind them (press speed), and one stalker.

Too early in their racing careers to fit into (every one of the four quadrants of) my model, so I'm just observing what works for them and what doesn't. Color-coding penciled in as if they are matured already. I don't rely on speed figures in the manner suggested here, but want to see what's going on from that perspective in this stage of the horse's development.

Secret Circle has run a 97-97-95, which are the highest in this race and the reason why he's the favorite. What is missing here is a dynamic progression. He started out very fast, but has been sitting there ever since. Where is he going from here? I could see him running a rather poor race, for his standard, but in this field that may still be good enough. (89)

Hierro is the press speed in this company. So he would have four horses in front of him and only the stalker Out of Bounds possibly behind him. Hierro does have a dynamic speed progression: 65-79-85, so there seems to be more of a plan behind this horse. I like him best in this race, and wouldn't be surprised with a continued progression into the low 90's. (90)

Out of Bounds is the stalker. Interesting for my own observation, as he has two red flags, which can often cancel each other and produce a good race instead. His speed progression is 66-78, and I could see him continue to improve and run in the mid 80's in this race. (85)

Handsome Mike, another speed, is also working towards something with a speed progression of: 59-82-80-86 (86)

The other two horses, Longview Drive 78-80-74-69, and Senor Rain 72-59-72-74, are basically stuck in their progression. I doubt this is the race for them to make the next step.

andywend · 01-07-12, 06:23 AM

Far too much reliance on Beyer figures which only tell a small fraction of the story especially when it comes to lightly raced horses.

Dark Horse · 01-07-12, 01:05 PM

To be clear, the color coding has nothing to do with Beyers. I added the Beyer history, with numbers listed chronologically, as one way to monitor the growth and maturation process for these young horses.

I'm sure there are better ways to monitor that progress, but the simple way may have value as well. Here are the top four finishers in their runup to the 2011 Kentucky Derby:

Animal Kingdom 67-84-83-94
Nehro 64-79-94-98
Mucho Macho Man 77-73-82-89-99-88-94-93 (the 99 was in November, which may have been too early; but if it's tossed out as suspicious we still see a nicely progressing speed line; not as sharp as for the others, but MMM had more races, so the idea is the same).
Shackleford 85-89-93

By comparison, the Derby prerace favorite:
Dialed In 75-97-90-93 (the 97 was at the end of January)

Clean Beyers (fast and firm tracks) only, and no efforts included where the horse clearly gave up early. Dates can be added for a better picture.

Given that trainers are preparing their horses for the Derby, I would mark horses that show a steady progress and don't peak too early. Peaking too early is a problem. Among the 2011 Derby contenders at 12-1:
Midnight Interlude 69-85-85-97. He won the SA Derby on April 9th with that last effort, and pretty much rode off into the sunset.

The other motive to monitor these is to try to recognize as early as possible -as the year progresses-when a horse has reached his base speed; the speed he will run on an average day as a mature horse. For my own model that speed is the 'input number'.

Dark Horse · 01-07-12, 04:40 PM

The Sham was won by Out Of Bounds, one of the two horses in green. Secret Circle, the huge favorite, ran second (red down-grading). So the advantage went to the stalker in this company. Out of Bounds is another nice example for me of the mentioned two combined red flags that turn into a positive and produce a winner.

DRF:

01/07/2012 5:24PM Santa Anita: Out of Bounds upsets Secret Circle in Sham
ARCADIA, Calif. – Now that the calendar has turned to 2012, the West Coast’s 3-year-olds need to prove that they can stretch out and progress on their way to the Santa Anita Derby, and possibly the Kentucky Derby. The one-mile distance of the Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita was a testament to the path ahead, as Out of Bounds successfully stretched out in his stakes debut, while heavily favored Secret Circle, the unbeaten winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint, failed to reproduce his best form in his first try around two turns.

Out of Bounds, given a clever, ground-saving ride by Garrett Gomez, wore down Secret Circle in the final yards to score a half-length victory in the Sham. Longview Drive, the early pacesetter, was another half-length back in third. Handsome Mike was fourth, and Hierro faded to finish last in the five-horse field after making a menacing move on the far turn.

Senor Rain was scratched.

Out of Bounds ($22.60) completed one mile on the fast main track in 1:34.56.

Out of Bounds only had a pair of sprints to his credit, a fourth-place finish in his debut here, followed by a win against maidens on Dec. 10 at Hollywood Park. But he made an impressive presence in the paddock, and ran to his looks.

“He’s very big, the better part of 17 hands, but he’s a gentle giant,” said Eoin Harty, who trains Out of Bounds. “He’s come around mentally as well as physically. He seems to be learning what we’re trying to teach him to do, and it paid off today.”

Longview Drive broke sharpest and went for the lead, as Secret Circle rated behind him through fractions of 22.66 seconds for the opening quarter-mile and 45.89 seconds for a half-mile. Out of Bounds settled behind those leaders, on the rail, and patiently waited until Gomez spotted an opening at the top of the stretch.

At that point, Longview Drive yielded the lead to Secret Circle, and while Secret Circle was preoccupied with Longview Drive to his inside, Out of Bounds came outside both horses and got the money.

“He had a good trip, no excuse,” said jockey Rafael Bejarano, who had ridden Out of Bounds and Secret Circle in all their previous starts and stuck with Secret Circle, who went off as the 1-2 favorite. “He started looking at the horse to his inside and tried to lug in. He didn’t pay attention to the other horse.”

Out of Bounds was bred and is owned by the Darley Stable of Sheikh Mohammed. He is by Discreet Cat, and is out of Unbridled Elaine, who won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in 2001. http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-...et-circle-sham

Hierro looked great in the turn but suddenly faded. Not sure what happened. Not where I want to be yet with these young horses, but as long as grip improves on a monthly basis I'm good with that. Of course that would mean the horses are not as young anymore. lol Two very different parts of the calendar year. I may prefer the Road to the Breeders Cup over the Derby Trail, but monitoring the progression of these horses into maturity is definitely something else.

(Edit: Two misreads for Longview Drive were due to wrong data. Cleared that one up burning the midnight oil.)