Churchill Downs, Aqueduct - Winter Meets

[Dexter]

CD Sunday 10/30:

R1: #10 Unbridled's Note (4/1)
R2: #7 Wicked Night (4/1)
R3: #2 Space Race (5/2)
R4: #10 Ticket to Broadway (5/1)
R5: #1 Good Deed (7/2)
R6: #9 Wharton (6/1)
R7: #3 Political Courage (5/1)
R8: #7 Mr. Bowling (5/2)
R9: #2 Brown Eyed Jozi (5/1)
R10: #6 Glinda the Good (6/1)
R11: #12 Original Kitten (5/1)

$5W/P*

[Dexter]

10/30: +$15.5

[Dexter]

CD Wednesday 11/2:

R1: #8 Xpectation (3/1)
R2: #5 Alpha Tammy (5/1)
R3: #1 Second Street City (2/1)
R4: #8 It's All About Joy (5/2)
R5: #2 Princess Janelle (4/1)
R6: #6 Lovely Stay (8/1)
R7: #3 Grandestroyale (5/1)
R8: #4 Estrella Vega (6/1)
R9: #3 Quantity (7/2)
R10: #1 Billy (5/1)

$5W/P*

[NY handicapper]

looking forward to your aqueduct picks i am also handicapping strictly aqueduct for the winter meet

[Dexter]

looking forward to your aqueduct picks i am also handicapping strictly aqueduct for the winter meet

i may have to bite the bullet and play more favorites there. such small fields and horses going wire to wire when they move to the inner main track.

[NY handicapper]

i have Fridays pp's from drf fields look pretty big throught the first few races

[Dexter]

R8: #3 Island Bound (4 scratched)

[Dexter]

11/2: -$16
cd: -$.50

[Dexter]

CD Thursday 11/3:

R1: #1 Reorganization (5/1)
R2: #2 Tapativity (7/2)
R3: #4 Moe Man (5/1)
R4: #4 My Fast One (4/1)
R5: #4 Tippy Toes (4/1)
R6: #9 Grip Hands (9/2)
R7: #12 Babu (4/1)
R8: #13 Brushed by a Star (6/1)
R9: #1 Congenial (5/1)
R10: #3 Arienza (3/1)
R11: #10 Salto (6/1)
R12: #10 Devil Train (5/1)

$5W/P*

[Dexter]

CD Breeders Cup Day 1 - Friday November 4th:

R1: #6 De Price (6/1) - R. Albarado
I have this horse with an 88 number in my own model. Thats exactly what i have for Shrill, but there are some other factors which i like with this horse. Love the steady works leading up to the monster 10/29 work @58.4 for 5 furlongs. 1 for 3 at CD, and 4 for 5 (1st or 2nd) at this distance. Should be the 3rd or 4th choice in the 5/1 range.

R2: #9 Katz My Song (7/2) - J, Castellano
I have this horse with an 85 which is second to Santiva's 89. However i will look to beat the favorite who is clearly the class of the race with Grade 1's all over the resume. I always get scared seeing a horse make such a drop first off a layoff. Castellano is one of my favorite jockeys dirt or turf.

R3: #5 Glenwood Canyon (6/1) - R. Albarado
A 93 number in my model for this horse, which is 2nd to a 94 for Leparoux's mount. Close call, so i will take the value with many others here likely to take more action. I feel an overlay coming for the 5 in this spot. 5 for 11 (Win/Place) at CD and 6 for 7 at the distance.

R4: #5 Southern Dude (6/1) - J. Castanon
I have a 91 for Southern Dude and Artefacto, but Artefacto may be a 5f specilaist, and i would have liked to have seen works longer then 3f in prep for this. Southern Dude obviously loves this distance and has 2 solid works since his last race. Banking on Baffert's horse to take a lot of money off that 1 start in California and Leparoux's mount actually ranks at an 88 for me. Should get a nice price and possibly an overlay.

R5: #2 Sum of the Parts (15/1) - R. Maragh
Secret Circle will likely win this race, but i'm not taking even money in this spot. Sum of the Parts is my 2nd rated horse in this race with an 83 figure. I'm throwing her 7/2 and 9/3 races due to troubled trips. Maiden win came on this track. Love the steady works with a monster bullet on 10/25.

R6: #6 Sweet Cat (10/1) - G. Gomez
I have this horse rated at an 82, with Elusive Kate and Somali Lemonade ranked higher. However, i dont like their post positions and i always tend to look for a price in large turf races. Gomez in route turfs is one of the best in the country, and of course Pletcher is dynamite with 2 year olds.

R7: #12 Pomeroys Pistol (6/1) - J. Castellano
Will look to beat Turbulent Descent with my 2nd rated horse who produced a 96 rating vs a 97 for the 3 horse. 2 for 3 (Win/Place) at the distance and a solid bullet work on 10/27. Love the consistency of this horse. My go to guy Javier with the mount.

R8: #11 Weemissfrankie (4/1) - R. Bejarano
I have this horse rated at an 89 and second to the 94 of My Miss Auerelia. Will look to beat the favorite with this Cali horse who has dynamite workouts over the last 3. One of the handful of horses to have won at this distance. Deep closer looks to be set up for a run with speed from the 2,5,6,9 and 14. Should get the fast fractions to close into.

R9: #6 Announce (9/2) - M. Guyon (Best Bet)**
Announce has a 104 rating in my model with Stacelita and Misty For Me with a 100 each. I like the post position for that sharp first turn, and Euro horses always get an extra check mark for me in turf races.

R10: #2 Pachattack (12/1) - R. Maragh
97 rating for this horse which noses out (96) what will be the heavy favorite Plum Pretty for Baffert. Love the value on this horse with a 12/1 morning line. 2 for 2 at this distance (Win/Place) and a sharp 35.3 bullet work on the 29th.

Races 1-4 ($10W/P)
Races 5,6,7,8, 10 ($20W/P)
Race 9 ($40W/P)*

[Dexter]

11/2: -$16
cd: -$.50

11/3: -$12.5
cd: -$13

[Dexter]

cd breeders cup day 1 - friday november 4th:

r1: #6 de price (6/1) - r. Albarado
i have this horse with an 88 number in my own model. Thats exactly what i have for shrill, but there are some other factors which i like with this horse. Love the steady works leading up to the monster 10/29 work @58.4 for 5 furlongs. 1 for 3 at cd, and 4 for 5 (1st or 2nd) at this distance. Should be the 3rd or 4th choice in the 5/1 range.

risk: $20
return: -$20

r2: #9 katz my song (7/2) - j, castellano
i have this horse with an 85 which is second to santiva's 89. However i will look to beat the favorite who is clearly the class of the race with grade 1's all over the resume. I always get scared seeing a horse make such a drop first off a layoff. Castellano is one of my favorite jockeys dirt or turf.

risk: $20
return: -$20

r3: #5 glenwood canyon (6/1) - r. Albarado
a 93 number in my model for this horse, which is 2nd to a 94 for leparoux's mount. Close call, so i will take the value with many others here likely to take more action. I feel an overlay coming for the 5 in this spot. 5 for 11 (win/place) at cd and 6 for 7 at the distance.

risk: $20
return: -$20

r4: #5 southern dude (6/1) - j. Castanon
i have a 91 for southern dude and artefacto, but artefacto may be a 5f specilaist, and i would have liked to have seen works longer then 3f in prep for this. Southern dude obviously loves this distance and has 2 solid works since his last race. Banking on baffert's horse to take a lot of money off that 1 start in california and leparoux's mount actually ranks at an 88 for me. Should get a nice price and possibly an overlay.

risk: $20
return: -$20

r5: #2 sum of the parts (15/1) - r. Maragh
secret circle will likely win this race, but i'm not taking even money in this spot. Sum of the parts is my 2nd rated horse in this race with an 83 figure. I'm throwing her 7/2 and 9/3 races due to troubled trips. Maiden win came on this track. Love the steady works with a monster bullet on 10/25.

Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r6: #6 sweet cat (10/1) - g. Gomez
i have this horse rated at an 82, with elusive kate and somali lemonade ranked higher. However, i dont like their post positions and i always tend to look for a price in large turf races. Gomez in route turfs is one of the best in the country, and of course pletcher is dynamite with 2 year olds.

Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r7: #12 pomeroys pistol (6/1) - j. Castellano
will look to beat turbulent descent with my 2nd rated horse who produced a 96 rating vs a 97 for the 3 horse. 2 for 3 (win/place) at the distance and a solid bullet work on 10/27. Love the consistency of this horse. My go to guy javier with the mount.

Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r8: #11 weemissfrankie (4/1) - r. Bejarano
i have this horse rated at an 89 and second to the 94 of my miss auerelia. Will look to beat the favorite with this cali horse who has dynamite workouts over the last 3. One of the handful of horses to have won at this distance. Deep closer looks to be set up for a run with speed from the 2,5,6,9 and 14. Should get the fast fractions to close into.

Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

R9: #12 Misty For Me (10/1) - R. Moore
#6 Announce late scratch at the gate*

Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r10: #2 pachattack (12/1) - r. Maragh
97 rating for this horse which noses out (96) what will be the heavy favorite plum pretty for baffert. Love the value on this horse with a 12/1 morning line. 2 for 2 at this distance (win/place) and a sharp 35.3 bullet work on the 29th.

Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

races 1-4 ($10w/p)
races 5,6,7,8,9,10 ($20w/p)

11/4: -$320
Cd: -$333

[mossmk16]

Looks like you hit that one!!

[Dexter]

R9: #12 Misty for Me ($20W/P) - #6 late scratch

[Dexter]

lol...i could have swore espn listed the 12 as the place horse. what a joke.

[doogtonmai]

Yeah, #12 practically fell on her face out of the gate then made a late charge for a photo finish for 2nd. Three races were photo finishes for 2nd today with our horses on the unlucky side.

[Dexter]

Breeders Cup Day 2 - Saturday November 5th

R1: #8 Jump Up (5/2) - J. Leparoux
R2: #9 Splendor Town (20/1) - V. Lebron
R3: #9 Cease (6/1) - G. Gomez
R4: #7 Caspar Netscher (6/1) - K. Fallon
R5: #1 Euroears (4/1) - R. Bejarano
R6: #13 Caracortado (4/1) - J. Talamo
R7: #9 Trappe Shot (3/1) - J. Velazquez
R8: #1 St Nicholas Abbey (9/2) - J. O'Brien*
R9: #4 Drill (8/1) - M. Garcia
R10: #11 Strong Suit (10/1) - R. Hughes
R11: #2 Flat Out (6/1) - A. Solis*
R12: #5 Maristar (10/1) - R. Maragh

$20W/P - R8, R11 $50W/P*

[Dexter]

Aqueduct Sat 11/5:

R1: #3 Launch N Relaunch (2/1)
R2: #10 Coach Royal (5/1)
R3: #6 Cup of Cee (6/1)
R4: #5 Temecula Creek (7/2)
R5: #11 Famous Rose (4/1)
R6: #7 Grassy (9/5)
R7: #6 Discreet Code (5/1)
R8: #1 Rudy Rudy Rudy (6/1)*

$5W/P - R8 $10W/P*

[Dexter]

breeders cup day 2 - saturday november 5th

r1: #8 jump up (5/2) - j. Leparoux
risk: -$40
net: +$24

r2: #9 splendor town (20/1) - v. Lebron
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r3: #9 cease (6/1) - g. Gomez
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r4: #7 caspar netscher (6/1) - k. Fallon
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r5: #1 euroears (4/1) - r. Bejarano
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r6: #13 caracortado (4/1) - j. Talamo
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r7: #9 trappe shot (3/1) - j. Velazquez
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r8: #1 st nicholas abbey (9/2) - j. O'brien*
Risk: -$100
Return: +$470

r9: #4 drill (8/1) - m. Garcia
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r10: #11 strong suit (10/1) - r. Hughes
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40

r11: #2 flat out (6/1) - a. Solis*
Risk: -$100
Return: -$100

r12: #5 maristar (10/1) - r. Maragh
Risk: -$40
Return: -$40


$20w/p - r8, r11 $50w/p*

11/5: +$34
Cd: -$299

[Dexter]

Aqueduct 11/5: -$73

[Dexter]

CD Sunday 11/6:

R1: #5 Lite Em Up Lily (4/1)
R2: #1 Glamalert (6/1)
R3: #4 Sleepless Knight (7/2)
R4: #7 Royal Start (5/1)
R5: #6 Welcome Dance (5/2)
R6: #1 Brother Dan (9/2)
R7: #6 Class President (3/1)
R8: #12 Wheemaway (6/1)
R9: #5 Pulpit's Secret (7/2)
R10: #3 Ravi's Song (3/1)
R11: #4 Flying Warrior (4/1)*

$5W/P - R11 $20W/P*

[doogtonmai]

R2: #8 Whispering Wisdom scratched

[Dexter]

Aqueduct Sunday 11/6:

R1: #7 Legally Blanca (4/1)
R2: #9 Bird House (7/2)*
R3: #3 Glib (2/1)
R4: #6 Summer Front (7/2)
R5: #3 Justin Phillip (7/2)
R6: #3 My Redbyrd (7/2)
R7: #7 Cinder Cone (4/1)
R8: #6 Night Maneuver (5/2)
R9: #6 Hypnotic Dancer (6/1)

$5W/P - R2 $20W/P*

[TonyP]

here my Aqueduct for 11-6 across the board with all picks.

1-7,4
2-4,5
3-5,7
4-3,2
5-5,4
6-2,6
7-2,7
8-5,3
9-7,5

[doogtonmai]

Dex, where do you watch the Aqueduct races?

[Dexter]

Dex, where do you watch the Aqueduct races?

TVG

[doogtonmai]

Ugh, you've made me good money with baseball and football so far. HorseBetting is your poison.

[Dexter]

Aqueduct 11/5: -$73

11/6: -$52.25
Aqueduct: -$125.25

[Dexter]

11/5: +$34
cd: -$299

11/6: -$83
cd: -$382

[Dexter]

Aqueduct Wed 11/9:

R1: #2
R2: #3
R3: #6
R4: #6
R5: #2
R6: #3
R7: #7
R8: #3
R9: #5

$5W/P*

[Dexter]

CD Wed 11/9:

R1: #6
R2: #6
R3: #8
R4: #3
R5: #9
R6: #1
R7: #6
R8: #7*
R9: #4
R10: #7

$5W/P-R8 $10W/P*

[Dexter]

done with CD...its not on TVG anyway, so no fun for me unless i can watch the races (i like to watch my money burn - ha)

[Dexter]

11/6: -$52.25
Aqueduct: -$125.25

11/9: +$49.25
Aqueduct: -$76

[zebra58]

done with CD...its not on TVG anyway, so no fun for me unless i can watch the races (i like to watch my money burn - ha)

money burner lol, nice job at aq thursday

how many hours per day do you put into each card? also tvg will carry holly wood today though when you only focus on 1 track would you show more profit?

[Dexter]

money burner lol, nice job at aq thursday

how many hours per day do you put into each card? also tvg will carry holly wood today though when you only focus on 1 track would you show more profit?

it depends - maybe 30 min max during the week and more time on the weekends. i dont put the work in on horses that i do on regular sports - thats where i bet more serious money.

i just breeze through the beyers, recent workouts, look for troubled trips to eliminate a bad beyer and distance results/track results. then i always look for trends on jockey/trainer combos.