Fairplex, Belmont, Santa Anita - Fall 2011

[Dexter]

Fairplex Friday 9/9:

R1: #6 Jucy Pickins (3/1)
R2: #3 Kvell (8/5)
R3: #6 Clare's Top Choice (3/1)
R4: #4 Yankee Dan (2/1)
R5: #8 Orbach (5/2)
R6: #2 Praise for Dubai (2/1)*
R7: #3 Dance Little Angel (3/1)
R8: #6 Small But Mighty (5/2)
R9: #1 Skipton Creek (5/1)
R10: #6 Creston Cowboy (4/1)

$5W/P - R6 $10W/P*

[mikemca]

GL Dex but I really think you are going to find Fairplex pointless to handicap.Pedroza just wins too much that his horses are all about 3/5 to 9/5.I guess a case can be made for trying to bet against him since they all figure to be overlays but its next to impossible to figure out which races he is going to lose.C Santiago-Reyes is who I would try to back in spots.



2010
1-Martin A. Pedroza126--44(wins)--20--20-- $698,534---35%--84---67%
2-Alonso Quinonez98--15(wins)--17--20-- $354,090---15%---52---53%


2009
1-Martin A. Pedroza136--45(wins)--23--22-- $706,032--33%--90--66%
2Martin Garcia100---15(wins)---20---19 ---$404,125---15%---54---54%

[Dexter]

GL Dex but I really think you are going to find Fairplex pointless to handicap.Pedroza just wins too much that his horses are all about 3/5 to 9/5.I guess a case can be made for trying to bet against him since they all figure to be overlays but its next to impossible to figure out which races he is going to lose.C Santiago-Reyes is who I would try to back in spots.



2010
1-Martin A. Pedroza126--44(wins)--20--20-- $698,534---35%--84---67%
2-Alonso Quinonez98--15(wins)--17--20-- $354,090---15%---52---53%


2009
1-Martin A. Pedroza136--45(wins)--23--22-- $706,032--33%--90--66%
2Martin Garcia100---15(wins)---20---19 ---$404,125---15%---54---54%

yeah, i see that hes been dominant there....looks like no turf racing which should make it even chalkier.

[Poppa Catfish]

I thought favorites win 35% of the time at pretty much every track, does that mean we shouldn't try and beat them as well?

I respectfully disagree with Mike on this one, this being said from a guy who follows Golden Gate where Baze pretty much does what Pedroza does at the fair, you just have to pick your spots and you get really great value.

[Poppa Catfish]

Best of luck to you Dexter

[Dexter]

I thought favorites win 35% of the time at pretty much every track, does that mean we shouldn't try and beat them as well?

I respectfully disagree with Mike on this one, this being said from a guy who follows Golden Gate where Baze pretty much does what Pedroza does at the fair, you just have to pick your spots and you get really great value.

didnt baze get suspended again?

[Poppa Catfish]

didnt baze get suspended again?

Russell is at Hastings for some stakes races, not heard anything about a suspension. Though the way jockeys are running right now, wouldn't be surprised.

I know Tyler is suspended.

[mikemca]

I thought favorites win 35% of the time at pretty much every track, does that mean we shouldn't try and beat them as well? I respectfully disagree with Mike on this one, this being said from a guy who follows Golden Gate where Baze pretty much does what Pedroza does at the fair, you just have to pick your spots and you get really great value.

Well lets look at Aqueduct which is one of the first tracks/meets I think of when it comes to chalky meets
Out of 978 races ,140 were won by somewhat longshots(more than 7-1), or 14.31%

Same filter for Golden Gate 1432 races ,203 horses won at more than 7-1 , or 14.18%

Now Fairplex , in their small meet of 120 races only 15 horses won that were more than 7-1, or 12.50%
With an avg field size of 7.17 that is around 1 horse every two cards.

I'm sure those 15 horses were value but GL trying to find them prior to the race being run.
Also the average is around 20.50% for the more than 7-1 filter so my point is there is way more value elsewhere and there are a lot more spots to pick from.

[Poppa Catfish]

That looks to be a field size issue much more than a Pedroza issue though, all three of those listed often have 4-6 horse fields which naturally won't have horses above 7-1 value let alone to have them win. Fairplex is making a concerted effort to up their field sizes for this meet, their numbers should change.

[Dexter]

Russell is at Hastings for some stakes races, not heard anything about a suspension. Though the way jockeys are running right now, wouldn't be surprised.

I know Tyler is suspended.

i meant tyler....didnt even know there was a russell. i know tylers cousin committed suicide. crazy..

[Dexter]

That looks to be a field size issue much more than a Pedroza issue though, all three of those listed often have 4-6 horse fields which naturally won't have horses above 7-1 value let alone to have them win. Fairplex is making a concerted effort to up their field sizes for this meet, their numbers should change.

when else does fairplex run besides these few weeks? harness track?

[Poppa Catfish]

Very first t-bred race, 8-1 winner.


I don't know what else they run.

[Poppa Catfish]

i meant tyler....didnt even know there was a russell. i know tylers cousin committed suicide. crazy..

Russel is the king of Nor Cal racing, older than dirt but a great jockey. Tyler is cousins with Russell as well

[Poppa Catfish]

and now a 15-1

[zebra58]

dexter i'm just curious when you post do you consider all runners? or have a method to toss longshots?

[Dexter]

dexter i'm just curious when you post do you consider all runners? or have a method to toss longshots?

no, i look at each horse.

i played plenty of longshots at delmar/toga and got buried. of course today the races i played the favorite my second choice won 3 times...

[Dexter]

Fairplex Friday 9/9:

R1: #6 Jucy Pickins (3/1) (L-10)
R2: #3 Kvell (8/5) (L-10)
R3: #6 Clare's Top Choice (3/1) (P-3.5)
R4: #4 Yankee Dan (2/1) (P-3)
R5: #8 Orbach (5/2) (W+6.5)
R6: #2 Praise for Dubai (2/1)* (L-20)
R7: #3 Dance Little Angel (3/1) (P+3)
R8: #6 Small But Mighty (5/2) (W+16)
R9: #1 Skipton Creek (5/1) (L-10)
R10: #6 Creston Cowboy (4/1) (L-10)

$5W/P - R6 $10W/P*

9/9: -$41
Fairplex TTD: -$41

[Dexter]

Belmont Saturday 9/10:

R1: #8 Bella Lady (6/1)
R2: #7 Callmetony (3/1)
R3: #6 Make My Move (6/1)
R4: #2 Siberian Wildcat (4/1)
R5: #8 Papa Bear (6/1)*
R6: #5 Jusbhonorable (6/1)
R7: #2 Best Act (6/1)
R8: #1/1a McGaughey entry (4/1)
R9: #6 Center Divider (5/1)
R10: #5 Winloc's John Lee (6/1)

$5W/P - R5 $10W/P*

[Dexter]

Fairplex Saturday 9/10:

R1: #3 St. Valentino (6/1)
R2: #4 Devour (9/2)*
R3: #5 Ellensong (4/1)
R4: #6 Rockin Heather (4/1)
R5: #8 Catch My Tale (2/1)
R6: #8 Jack of Thunder (8/1)
R7: #2 Gahnzo Bob (3/1)
R8: #1 All On the Table (6/1)
R9: #6 Mark of a Warrior (3/1)
R10: #2 Speed Bias (3/1)

$5W/P - R2 $10W/P*

[zebra58]

i hope you get some nice wins today, good luck

[Dexter]

belmont saturday 9/10:

r1: #8 bella lady (6/1) (l-10)
r2: #7 callmetony (3/1) (p+.75)
r3: #6 make my move (6/1) (l-10)
r4: #2 siberian wildcat (4/1) (l-10)
r5: #8 papa bear (6/1)* (l-20)
r6: #5 jusbhonorable (6/1) (p+18.5)
r7: #2 best act (6/1) (l-10)
r8: #1/1a mcgaughey entry (4/1) (l-10)
r9: #6 center divider (5/1) (p+6.75)
r10: #5 winloc's john lee (6/1) (l-10)

$5w/p - r5 $10w/p*

9/10: -$54

[Poppa Catfish]

back to back bombs, who says fairplex doesn't have prices?

[Dexter]

Fairplex Saturday 9/10:

R1: #3 St. Valentino (6/1) (L-10)
R2: #4 Devour (9/2)* (L-20)
R3: #5 Ellensong (4/1) (L-10)
R4: #6 Rockin Heather (4/1) (L-10)
R5: #8 Catch My Tale (2/1) (L-10)
R6: #8 Jack of Thunder (8/1) (L-10)
R7: #2 Gahnzo Bob (3/1) (L-10)
R8: #1 All On the Table (6/1) (W+19.5)
R9: #6 Mark of a Warrior (3/1) (W+16)
R10: #2 Speed Bias (3/1) (L-10)
R11: #11 Laser Rocket (6/1) (L-10)

$5W/P - R2 $10W/P*

9/10: -$64.5
Fairplex: -$105.5

[Dexter]

Fairplex R11: #11 ($5W/P)

[zebra58]

got a feeling you erase that small -neg sunday, good luck

[Dexter]

Belmont Sunday 9/11:

R1: #5 Sneaky Girl (7/2)
R2: #6 Fine Player (2/1)
R3: #3 Centripital (7/2)
R4: #5 Launch N Relaunch (2/1)
R5: #2 Sky Blue Pink (7/2)
R6: #4 Bold Warrior (5/2)
R7: #3 Countess Theodora (4/1)
R8: #7 Pocket Cowboys (4/1)
R9: #10 Cozzetti (6/1)*
R10: #2 Irish Lady

$5W/P - R9 $10W/P

[zebra58]

going to $1 exbox my longshots w/your belmont plays

[Dexter]

Fairplex Sunday 9/11:

R1: #6 Just a Click Away (3/1)
R2: #5 Nine to Dine (7/2)
R3: #2 Warren's Wanna Be (4/1)
R4: #2 Homework (5/2)
R5: #1 Scratchthemoon (9/5)
R6: #6 Tuxedo Blues (3/1)
R7: #1 Navy Seal Six (5/1)*
R8: #4 Mizzen Donald (5/1)
R9: #5 At Last a Wildcat (6/1)
R10: #3 Road Ready (5/1)
R11: #2 Jane Pickles (3/1)

$5W/P - R7 $10

[Dexter]

Belmont Sunday 9/11:

R1: #5 Sneaky Girl (7/2) (L-10)
R2: #6 Fine Player (2/1) (P-3)
R3: #3 Centripital (7/2) (L-10)
R4: #5 Launch N Relaunch (2/1) (L-10)
R5: #2 Sky Blue Pink (7/2) (P+2.25)
R6: #4 Bold Warrior (5/2) (W+20)
R7: #3 Countess Theodora (4/1) (L-10)
R8: #7 Pocket Cowboys (4/1) (P+.25)
R9: #10 Cozzetti (6/1)* (L-20)
R10: #2 Irish Lady (L-10)

$5W/P - R9 $10W/P

9/11: -$50.5
Belmont: -$104.5

[Dexter]

Fairplex Sunday 9/11:

R1: #6 Just a Click Away (3/1) (L-10)
R2: #5 Nine to Dine (7/2) (W+17)
R3: #2 Warren's Wanna Be (4/1) (L-10)
R4: #2 Homework (5/2) (L-10)
R5: #1 Scratchthemoon (9/5) (L-10)
R6: #6 Tuxedo Blues (3/1) (W+35)
R7: #1 Navy Seal Six (5/1)* (L-20)
R8: #4 Mizzen Donald (5/1) (L-10)
R9: #5 At Last a Wildcat (6/1) (L-10)
R10: #3 Road Ready (5/1) (L-10)
R11: #2 Jane Pickles (3/1) (L-10)

$5W/P - R7 $10

9/11: -$48
Fairplex: -$153.5

[Dexter]

Belmont Wednesday 9/14:

R1: #2 Sun Dance Moon (6/1)
R2: #3 Stormin Bud (5/1)
R3: #1 Emcee (7/2)
R4: #6 Wicked Night (6/1)
R5: #3 Syros (4/1)
R6: #9 Flea Flicker (2/1)
R7: #5 Exchange Funds (10/1)
R8: #3 Untamed Glory (5/1)*
R9: #8 Ready to Party (9/2)

$5W/P - R8 $10W/P*

[Dexter]

Fairplex Wednesday 9/14:

1) 3
2) 7
3) 3
4) 5
5) 3
6) 1
7) 9
8) 7*
9) 10

$5W/P - R8 $10W/P

[Dexter]

Belmont Wednesday 9/14:

R1: #2 Sun Dance Moon (6/1) (L-10)
R2: #3 Stormin Bud (5/1) (L-10)
R3: #1 Emcee (7/2) (W+16.5)
R4: #6 Wicked Night (6/1) (L-10)
R5: #3 Syros (4/1) (L-10)
R6: #9 Flea Flicker (2/1) (L-10)
R7: #5 Exchange Funds (10/1) (L-10)
R8: #3 Untamed Glory (5/1)* (P+4.5)
R9: #8 Ready to Party (9/2) (L-10)

$5W/P - R8 $10W/P*

9/14: -$49
Belmont: -$153.5

[Dexter]

Fairplex Wednesday 9/14:

1) 3 (L-10)
2) 7 (W+58.5)
3) 3 (L-10)
4) 5 (L-10)
5) 3 (L-10)
6) 1 (L-10)
7) 9 (L-10)
8) 7* (L-20)
9) 4 (W+18)

$5W/P - R8 $10W/P

9/14: -$3.5
Fairplex: -$157

[Dexter]

R9: #4 (10 scratched)