Belmont Spring Meet

Dexter · 06-01-11, 09:32 PM

Thursday 6/2:

R1: #1/1a entry (7/2)
R2: #5 Jupiter Trio (3/5)
R3: #3 Island School (8/5)
R4: #5 Shes Got Energy (5/2)
R5: #1a Those Lyon Eyes (6/5)
R6: #2 Unaccountable (3/1)
R7: #4 Who's on the Case (3/1)
R8: #1 Alfarabi (5/2)**
R9: #2 Victoryat Last (5/2)

All races 10 across the board - race 8, 20 across

Seattle Slew · 06-02-11, 12:10 AM

No luck for me either. Waiting to til Belmont day to restart.

BGboothA · 06-02-11, 12:35 AM

Good luck guys. I have been staying away from belmont as well. Actuallly playing some Charlestown and mountaineer lately with some luck. Ohh and some church hill on the weekends.

Arsenal · 06-02-11, 01:05 AM

I am looking forward to both Saratoga and DelMar. Good luck with your strategy.

mikemca · 06-02-11, 06:10 AM

Hey Dexter whats up...I followed your other thread a little and the biggest reason I think you had such a hard time is that you took too many short priced horses.When you take under 2-1 on a horse you have to have a win rate of close to 50% just to make a 20% profit.IMO it isn't possible to win at 50% long term even with horses that look like they lay over the field.

My suggestion would be to demand at the very least 3-1 which cuts the needed win rate down to 30% to get a 20% profit.Bump that up to 7-2 and win at 30% to get a 40% profit.I'm sure you can see the trend here that the higher you go the less you need to win.On my w/p bets I want 5-1 and if they drop below 3-1 I don't bet.

Just some food for thought GL

Dexter · 06-02-11, 08:38 AM

Originally posted by mikemca

Hey Dexter whats up...I followed your other thread a little and the biggest reason I think you had such a hard time is that you took too many short priced horses.When you take under 2-1 on a horse you have to have a win rate of close to 50% just to make a 20% profit.IMO it isn't possible to win at 50% long term even with horses that look like they lay over the field.

My suggestion would be to demand at the very least 3-1 which cuts the needed win rate down to 30% to get a 20% profit.Bump that up to 7-2 and win at 30% to get a 40% profit.I'm sure you can see the trend here that the higher you go the less you need to win.On my w/p bets I want 5-1 and if they drop below 3-1 I don't bet.

Just some food for thought GL

actually, over the last few weeks at belmont (when i got crushed) i was consistently looking to beat the favorite and many times going with the 2nd/3rd favorite. on turf races especially, i would rarely pick the favorite. today, i went kind of chalky but only because my other strategy wasnt getting it done.

i appreciate the feedback, and will definitely use this info when i start up for real at the spa.

Dexter · 06-02-11, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Thursday 6/2:

R1: #1/1a entry (7/2) - (W+37)
R2: #5 Jupiter Trio (3/5) (P-9)
R3: #3 Island School (8/5) (L-30)
R4: #5 Shes Got Energy (5/2) (L-30)
R5: #1a Those Lyon Eyes (6/5) (W+14)
R6: #2 Unaccountable (3/1) (W+34)
R7: #4 Who's on the Case (3/1) (W+87)
R8: #1 Alfarabi (5/2)**(L-60)
R9: #2 Victoryat Last (5/2) (S-14)

All races 10 across the board - race 8, 20 across

6/2: +29
Thread: +29

Dexter · 06-02-11, 03:49 PM

of course i have a winning day today....

Dexter · 06-02-11, 10:54 PM

Friday 6/3:

R1: #7 Spring Elusion (4/1)
R2: #5 Algorithms (2/1)
R3: #4 Proud Dame (6/5)
R4: #3 Calmafterthestorm (6/5)
R5: #3 Fisherman's Wharf (5/1)
R6: #3 Warm Hugs (8/5)
R7: #3 Fiscal Stimulus (8/5)
R8: #4 Ava K.** (8/5)
R9: #3 Check the Cites (3/1)

10 across for all except race 8 (20 across)

wtt0315 · 06-03-11, 06:40 AM

belmont is tough because of small fields. when you win you win small and then some longshot screws your pick 4 like yesterday

Dexter · 06-03-11, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Friday 6/3:

R1: #7 Spring Elusion (4/1) (P-3)
R2: #5 Algorithms (2/1) (W+9)
R3: #4 Proud Dame (6/5) (P-8)
R4: #3 Calmafterthestorm (6/5) (P-8)
R5: #3 Fisherman's Wharf (5/1) (W+80)
R6: #3 Warm Hugs (8/5) (W+10)
R7: #3 Fiscal Stimulus (8/5) (L-30)
R8: #4 Ava K.** (8/5) (W+17)
R9: #3 Check the Cites (3/1) (W+61)

10 across for all except race 8 (20 across)

6/3: +128
Thread: +157

Dexter · 06-03-11, 04:30 PM

lol....another winning day with no $$ on the line...

Dexter · 06-03-11, 05:30 PM

Saturday 6/4:

R1: #2 Mr. Vegas (3/1)**
R2: #5 Now Now Girl (5/2)
R3: #4 Self Control (7/2)
R4: #3 Judy's Warrior (2/1)
R5: #4 Strikealinethruit (5/1)
R6: #6 Art Currency (7/2)
R7: #3 Southbeachsandy (3/1)
R8: #9 Houliana (6/1)
R9: #7 Streaker (4/1)
R10: #1 Song for Pupcake (5/1)

10 across the board - r1 20 across*

Dexter · 06-04-11, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Saturday 6/4:

R1: #2 Mr. Vegas (3/1)** (W+43)
R2: #5 Now Now Girl (5/2) (L-30)
R3: #4 Self Control (7/2) (L-30)
R4: #3 Judy's Warrior (2/1) (W+11)
R5: #4 Strikealinethruit (5/1) (P+35)
R6: #6 Art Currency (7/2) (L-30)
R7: #3 Southbeachsandy (3/1) (P-2)
R8: #9 Houliana (6/1) (L-30)
R9: #7 Streaker (4/1) (L-30)
R10: #1 Song for Pupcake (5/1) (-30)

10 across the board - r1 20 across*

6/4: -93
Thread: +64

wtt0315 · 06-05-11, 06:21 AM

Another losing day for me there

Dexter · 06-05-11, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by wtt0315

Another losing day for me there

yeah, these fields at belmont are so small. i like taking shots on bigger fields.

Dexter · 06-05-11, 10:54 AM

Sunday 6/5:

R1: #2 Sky Music (7/2)
R2: #3 Wicked Climb (8/5)
R3: #1 Friend or Foe (2/1)*
R4: #5 Ruthenia (3/1)**
R5: #3 Little Larky (4/1)
R6: #6 Darrin's Dilemma (5/2)
R7: #1 Copper Cascade (8/1)
R8: #6 Tidal Slam (7/2)
R9: #3 Letshootpool (3/1)
R10: #2 Gamblin Fever (9/2)

All races 10 across - R3 15/15 (no show), R4 20 across*

Dexter · 06-05-11, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Sunday 6/5:

R1: #2 Sky Music (7/2) (L-30)
R2: #3 Wicked Climb (8/5) (W+12)
R3: #1 Friend or Foe (2/1)* (W+21)
R4: #5 Ruthenia (3/1)** (S-37)
R5: #3 Little Larky (4/1) (W+59)
R6: #6 Darrin's Dilemma (5/2) (W+34)
R7: #1 Copper Cascade (8/1) (S-16)
R8: #6 Tidal Slam (7/2) (L-30)
R9: #4 Letshootpool (3/1) (L-30)
R10: #2 Gamblin Fever (9/2) (L-30)

All races 10 across - R3 15/15 (no show), R4 20 across*

6/5: -47
Thread: +17

Dexter · 06-06-11, 07:32 PM

Wednesday 6/8:

R1: #2 War Clan (3/1)
R2: #2 Wheeler Dealer (8/1)
R3: #4 Sister Resistor (7/2)
R4: #1/1a Rice entry (5/2)
R5: #4 Five Grand Girl (2/1)**
R6: #6 Stellaluce (9/2)
R7: #4 Comic Marvel
R8: #1/1a McLaughlin entry (3/1)
R9: #8 Town Flirt (7/2)

All races 10 across - R5 20 across**

Dexter · 06-08-11, 12:13 PM

Scratch Replacement:

R5: #1 (10 across)
R6: #1

Dexter · 06-08-11, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Wednesday 6/8:

R1: #2 War Clan (3/1) (L-30)
R2: #2 Wheeler Dealer (8/1) (L-30)
R3: #4 Sister Resistor (7/2) (S-11)
R4: #1/1a Rice entry (5/2) (L-30)
R5: #1 Wild News (7/2) (W+43)
R6: #1 Sneaky Girl (3/1) (P+2)
R7: #4 Comic Marvel (L-30)
R8: #1/1a McLaughlin entry (3/1) (W+35)
R9: #8 Town Flirt (7/2) (L-30)

All races 10 across - R5 20 across**

6/8: -81
Thread: -64

Dexter · 06-09-11, 07:11 AM

Thursday 6/9:

R1: #4 City Sneakers (6/1)
R2: #4 Double the Energy (7/2)
R3: #4 Moshe Diane (5/2)
R4: #1/1a entry (7/2)
R5: #3 Threeanddonedan (5/2)
R6: #2 Afleet's Acclaim (4/1)
R7: #2 Logical Order (10/1)
R8: #2 Alyarf (4/1)
R9: #6 Vintage Heirloom (4/1)

10 across*

CANCELLED DUE TO HEAT WAVE**

Dexter · 06-09-11, 08:21 PM

Friday 6/10:

R1: #7 Mrs Rabbits (7/2)
R2: #6 Bid a Moon (5/2)
R3: #5 Artest (7/2)
R4: #2 Gimme Credit (7/2)
R5: #6 East Indies (4/1)
R6: #8 Sundae's a Meese (4/1)
R7: #8 Make My Move (10/1)
R8: #3 Long Gone (10/1)
R9: #2 Right One (3/1)
R10: #1 Eldaafer (2/1)

10 across*

not test plays today....diving back in today and tomorrow.

Dexter · 06-10-11, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Friday 6/10:

R1: #7 Mrs Rabbits (7/2) (L-30)
R2: #6 Bid a Moon (5/2) (W+21)
R3: #5 Artest (7/2) (W+62)
R4: #2 Gimme Credit (7/2) (W+44)
R5: #6 East Indies (4/1) (P+7)
R6: #8 Sundae's a Meese (4/1) (S-0)
R7: #8 Make My Move (10/1) (L-30)
R8: #3 Long Gone (10/1) (L-30)
R9: #2 Right One (3/1) (S-19)
R10: #1 Eldaafer (2/1) (L-30)

10 across*

not test plays today....diving back in today and tomorrow.

6/10: -5
Thread: -69

Dexter · 06-10-11, 08:11 PM

Saturday 6/11:

R1: #5 Seal Cove (6/1)
R2: #5 Bold Choice (4/1)
R3: #13 In Just We Trust (5/2)
R4: #11 Johannesburg Smile (6/1)
R5: #9 Carbon County (8/1)
R6: #1 Her Smile (8/1)
R7: #4 Rule by Night (6/1)
R8: #2 Justin Phillip (6/1)
R9: #1 Gypsy's Warning (5/1)
R10: #6 Viscount Nelson (4/1)
R11: #1 Master of Hounds (10/1)
R12: #5 Dr. W (6/1)
R13: #9 Russian Ally (8/1)

20 across the board for all races**

Dexter · 06-11-11, 10:52 AM

R7: #5 Calibrachoa (7/2)

due to scratch**

Dexter · 06-11-11, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

Saturday 6/11:

R1: #5 Seal Cove (6/1) (W+77)
R2: #5 Bold Choice (4/1) (L-60)
R3: #13 In Just We Trust (5/2) (W+52)
R4: #11 Johannesburg Smile (6/1) (W+92)
R5: #9 Carbon County (8/1) (L-60)
R6: #1 Her Smile (8/1) (S-17)
R7: #5 Calibrachoa (7/2) (S-35)
R8: #2 Justin Phillip (6/1) (W+123)
R9: #1 Gypsy's Warning (5/1) (L-60)
R10: #6 Viscount Nelson (4/1) (L-60)
R11: #1 Master of Hounds (10/1) (L-60)
R12: #5 Dr. W (6/1) (W+278)
R13: #9 Russian Ally (8/1) (L-60)

20 across the board for all races**

6/11: +210
Thread: +141

Dexter · 06-12-11, 11:45 AM

Monmouth Sunday 6/12:

R1: #5 Say a Novena (4/1)
R2: #7 Sonzul (3/1)
R3: #6 Our Concerto (4/1)
R4: #9 Midnight Mass (5/1)
R5: #1 Our Royal Affair (7/2)
R6: #7 Dattts Cool (2/1)

10 across*

Dexter · 06-12-11, 02:25 PM

R7: #3 Awakino Cat (4/1)
R8: #7 All of the Above (5/2)
R9: #9 Shiloh's Vine (12/1)
R10: #1 Patriotic Viva (4/1)
R11: #6 Sal the Barber (6/1)
R12: #7 Max's Hotdog (6/1)
R13: #12 Northern Bride (5/1)

10 across**

Dexter · 06-12-11, 02:25 PM

.........

Dexter · 06-12-11, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Monmouth Sunday 6/12:

R1: #5 Say a Novena (4/1) (W+92)
R2: #7 Sonzul (3/1) (L-30)
R3: #6 Our Concerto (4/1) (P+8)
R4: #9 Midnight Mass (5/1) (L-30)
R5: #1 Our Royal Affair (7/2) (L-30)
R6: #7 Dattts Cool (2/1) (P+3)

10 across*

Results for Races 1-6: +13

Dexter · 06-12-11, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

R7: #3 Awakino Cat (4/1) (S-8)
R8: #7 All of the Above (5/2) (W+10)
R9: #9 Shiloh's Vine (12/1) (P+12)
R10: #1 Patriotic Viva (4/1) (S-15)
R11: #6 Sal the Barber (6/1) (L-30)
R12: #7 Max's Hotdog (6/1) (L-30)
R13: #12 Northern Bride (5/1) (L-30)

10 across**

6/12: -78
Thread: +63

Dexter · 06-14-11, 10:25 PM

Wed 6/15:

R1: #1 Wise Stop (4/1)
R2: #6 Ultimo Principe (4/1)
R3: #5 Arena Elvira (8/5)
R4: #5 Imaging (6/1)
R5: #1 Must Be Love (5/1)
R6: #10 Our Brave Warrior (5/1)
R7: #5 Lemon Punch (5/1)
R8: #10 Tudor King (6/1)
R9: #4 Copious Notes (6/1)

10 across*

Dexter · 06-15-11, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

Wed 6/15:

R1: #1 Wise Stop (4/1) (W+39)
R2: #6 Ultimo Principe (4/1) (L-30)
R3: #5 Arena Elvira (8/5) (S-20)
R4: #5 Imaging (6/1) (L-30)
R5: #1 Must Be Love (5/1) (W+59)
R6: #10 Our Brave Warrior (5/1) (L-30)
R7: #5 Lemon Punch (5/1) (L-30)
R8: #10 Tudor King (6/1) (L-30)
R9: #4 Copious Notes (6/1) (W+69)

10 across*

6/15: -3
Thread: +60