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Dance CityComment -
sway away is getting some longshot money from me! g/l everyone!Comment -
Here is my only real issue at this point:
Which is horse is definitely going to hit the board, Animal Kingdom or Mucho Macho Man?
MMM has hit the board each race (9 starts) except once (theHolyBull G3). 2w3p3s
AK is lightly raced, has one his last two and never been outside of 2nd. 5 races, 3w2p.
And I keep coming back to the "15 times since 1986, Derby winners have either won or placed at Pimlico. 9 wins, 6 seconds" stat.
Please contribute your top 8 horses in the field, if you have a minute. thanks.Comment -
And apparently Dialed In isn't 100%. I dont know what to think of that.
I got the advice "stick to your guns," and I have been a Dialed In guy all along. I just cant back this horse, even with the $5.5mil bonus. But I know that as soon as I leave it out, it wins this race.Comment -
This year's Preakness renewal has drawn a full field of 14, an indication of the modest regard in which the Derby winner is held amongst horsemen. However, although a 20/1 chance in that race, he was a convincing winner and the Pimlico handicapper has installed him as the 2/1 favourite. He'll face four of his Derby rivals and nine new shooters, all trying to grab the brass ring on a track that will be listed as fast. Below is a capsule analysis of the field by post position.
1. Astrology - A talented son of top sire A P Indy, his best efforts have come in Gr2 and Gr3 races. This will be his first attempt at a Gr1 and is a big ask. He has a good post and enough speed to obtain a stalking inside position for Mike Smith. Board chance.
2. Norman Asbjornson - This locally trained colt has a fourth in the Gr1 Wood as his credential for participation, but he never really threatened in that event and none of the field has done anything of note since. Would be a shock winner.
3. King Congie - Was beaten a zop in the Gr1 Bluegrass in latest by Brilliant Speed, who you couldn't find with a search warrant in the Derby. That was by far his best effort and is unlikely to be repeated in here. A moonshot.
4. Flashpoint - Lightly raced son of obscure sire Pomeroy has a world of speed, but stopped as though shot when Dialed In blew by him in the Florida Derby at nine furlongs. Strictly a sprinter with no chance in here.
5. Shackelford - Led until deep stretch in the Derby and got necked by Dialed In in Florida Derby; could last here on this speed favouring course going a 'steenth shorter than in Kentucky. However, he's unlikely to get the lead, which compromises his chances.
6. Sway Away - Couldn't draw in the the Derby, but has good Cal form, 4th in the Arkansas Derby, Has only beaten maidens in lone win in five starts, but has hit board in three Graded stakes. Piloted by top jockey Garrett Gomez. Outside chance.
7. Midnight Interlude - Unaccountably poor effort in Derby, shuffled back with nowhere to run, trainer Baffert giving the Santa Anita Derby winner another chance. Rider switch to Martin Garcia may help. A question mark, but big shot on best.
8. Dance City - Arkansas Derby close third after a rough trip, may have been best. A Pletcher trainee never off board, with a bright future (perhaps now), in hands of Ramon Dominguez, formerly Maryland's leading rider. Has a huge shot with these, don't ignore.
9. Mucho Macho Man - Hard knocker with excellent stakes record. Hung in the stretch as Derby third. Talented Rajiv Maragh on board doesn't hurt chances. Suspicion is that the lemon may have been squeezed dry on overhyped colt. Board chance, prefer others.
10. Dialed In - Has legitimate excuses as Derby favourite, was running late after being checked early. Zito rolling him right back, expecting an easier trip in smaller field. Retains Julien Leparoux and could well make amends. Will be in the mix.
11. Animal Kingdom - Was a huge overlay at 20/1 in Derby, has never been worse than second in life, and won with plenty left in Kentucky. Trainer Graham Motion back on home grounds and with Johnny V at the controls will get the million dollar ride. Hard to bet against and race sets up perfectly for his running style. Almost HAS to be one/two.
12. Isn't He Perfect - No, he's not. Colt with limited ability handled by obscure trainer may be the worst horse in the field. The sad commentary about this horse is that he's the best ride Edgar Prado could obtain. His career appears to be winding down.
13. Concealed Identity - Aptly named colt is masquerading as a Triple Crown contender. Local trainer, the ancient (80) Eddie Gaudet is making his last hurrah with a colt in form, but in over his head. Would be a real shocker.
14. Mr. Commons - Shipper from California, the Santa Anita Derby third has some kind of chance on best. Trained by John Sherreffs and piloted by the talented Victor Espinoza, he's in capable hands. Board chance.
Possible winners: 7, 8, 10, 11,
Board chances: 1, 5, 6, 9, 14.Comment -
Mucho Macho Man has a fantastic chance to win this race.
What do you think about the race, tho?Comment -
going with my boy mucho macho manComment -
Animal Kingdom wins easy lookng for something underneath going with sway away and concealed identityComment -
I have Animal kingdom and Dialed In covered on a couple multi-wager bets but hoping for a price w. Dance CityComment -
I like Dialed In to win and Animal Kingdom 2ndComment -
I have been looking at these times. Flashpoint puts up some impressive times. 5f fast works @ 1:00.3, :59, :59.3
I think this horse will push us more to a half in :46. in his last, the Florida Derby, Flashpoint went at a :46.2 clip. I like him to set a blistering pace from the inside poll.
Shackleford will follow, and fade.
From distances at a mile +, Dialed In has collected 2 wins in 2 attempts with times less than :47. Also won a 6.5f race with a half of :45.2.
""As the winner of two of Gulfstream Park’s three major 3-year-old stakes – the Holy Bull and Florida Derby – Dialed In will get a $5.5 million bonus should he capture the 1 3/16-mile middle leg of the Triple Crown. The bonus is offered by the parent corporation of Gulfstream and Pimlico, with $5 million to the owner and $500,000 to the trainer.""
Why not coast in the KY Derby, aim him for this race, and lower the odds a little bit to make a little extra jack on your pony? just sayin.
The only Graded race Mucho Macho Man has run with a half under :47 was the Holy Bull and he failed to hit the board. He has, however, hit the board in every other race, and is becoming THE popular upset pick.
Animal Kingdom is a phenomenal horse. ran away with derby with a slower half. Won the Spiral G3 (1mi 1/8) with a half of :46.2. HE doesn't seem to discriminate, but outrunning the G3 class is a whole different ball of wax. I expect an amazing fight to the wire between AK and Dialed In. I think that was something I posted here a while back.
Concealed Identity is a local boy, who has won his last two, both at Pimlico. Worth the bottom of exotics.
Sway Away runs great at 7f or 6.5f but cant handle two turns and was destroyed twice by The Factor. Looking elsewhere.
King Congie has a legitimate shot. This horse seems to do better the faster the half at a mile plus. Was bothered in tight in the BlueGrass G1 and still managed to show with a :50.1 half. Here's a horse to include in the bottom of your Exacta wheel. (10,11/3,5-9,13 = $28 Ex wheel.)
I think Im sticking with AK to hit the board.
And Im gonna play this Dialed In horse.
Best of Luck to you all.Comment -
Here are my tri picks for the day:
11-10-9 animal, dialed in, macho
10-7-11 dialed in, midnight, animal
11-8-7 animal, dance city, midnight
11-5-6 animal, shackleford, sway away
7-5-9 midnight, shacklfeford, macho man
5-4-9 shackleford, flashpoint, macho
8-9-10 dance city, macho man, dialed in
11-1-5 animal, astrology, shackleford
11-9-10 animal, macho, dialed
6-5-10 sway away, shackleford, dialed inComment -
How about a tri 11-4-7...
AK47Comment -
Had shack in all my bottoms. Knew that horse would be there, but didn't think he could hold it. And he did.Comment -
I thought Animal Kingdom ran big on a pretty crappy track for closers. Belmont anyone?Comment -
Nehro. No bs. $50 to win.Comment -
AK at belmont if he runs will be toughComment -
AK is dead to me.Comment
