First and foremost, get the thought of Big Brown losing out of your head.
His last 3 Beyer speeds of 109, 106, and 106 are all better than any other horse in the field has ever run. When this is the case, the horse wins about 85% of the time statistically... and usually they aren't this dominant over the rest of the pack.
Thus the odds of 1/9 or 1/5, which make him almost unbettable to win/place/show.
The exciting thing though is the fact that he has made handicapping the trifecta a simple science of handicapping an exacta underneath him, and the superfecta is simply a trifecta underneath him.
The field is full of mostly evenly matched horses who generally run Beyer speeds of around high 80s to mid to low 90s with the occasional 99 on a few of them (a perfect run for a horse consistently in the high 80s).
And then there is Gayego, the only other horse to record a Beyer speed over 100. If you throw out the Derby, his last 3 races were 103, 96, and 102. Throwing out the Derby is easy; it is a 20 horse race and its very easy to fall out of rythm in it. This 12 horse field is right back to normal, and Gayego is VERY CLEARLY the best of the rest.
So how do you bet it?
I did this;
$1 Trifecta Big Brown with Gayego with ALL
$1 Trifecta Big Brown with ALL with Gayego.
Thats a $20 wager, and
50c Superfecta Big Brown w/ Gayego w/ 7 horses w/ 7 horses
50c Superfecta Big Brown w/ 7 horses w/ Gayego w/ 7 horses
Thats a $42 wager and I have 7 of the 10 horses covered. If you have more bankroll then I do, you can throw in more (taking ALL in those spots would cost you $90). Or bet the $1 Super for more payout.
Right now you are probably saying "This bet won't even return what you bet if those favorites come in"... but you have to keep in mind this is the PREAKNESS and this is para-mutual betting. There will be tons of novices betting crazy boxes that don't give them proper odds, and plenty of rich players playing millions of combinations, especially those looking for the big score betting against Big Brown.
Besides that, if you end up having the 30 to 1 that comes in 2nd and a 25 to 1 come in 4th, it'll pay.
Just my two cents... best of luck everyone!
His last 3 Beyer speeds of 109, 106, and 106 are all better than any other horse in the field has ever run. When this is the case, the horse wins about 85% of the time statistically... and usually they aren't this dominant over the rest of the pack.
Thus the odds of 1/9 or 1/5, which make him almost unbettable to win/place/show.
The exciting thing though is the fact that he has made handicapping the trifecta a simple science of handicapping an exacta underneath him, and the superfecta is simply a trifecta underneath him.
The field is full of mostly evenly matched horses who generally run Beyer speeds of around high 80s to mid to low 90s with the occasional 99 on a few of them (a perfect run for a horse consistently in the high 80s).
And then there is Gayego, the only other horse to record a Beyer speed over 100. If you throw out the Derby, his last 3 races were 103, 96, and 102. Throwing out the Derby is easy; it is a 20 horse race and its very easy to fall out of rythm in it. This 12 horse field is right back to normal, and Gayego is VERY CLEARLY the best of the rest.
So how do you bet it?
I did this;
$1 Trifecta Big Brown with Gayego with ALL
$1 Trifecta Big Brown with ALL with Gayego.
Thats a $20 wager, and
50c Superfecta Big Brown w/ Gayego w/ 7 horses w/ 7 horses
50c Superfecta Big Brown w/ 7 horses w/ Gayego w/ 7 horses
Thats a $42 wager and I have 7 of the 10 horses covered. If you have more bankroll then I do, you can throw in more (taking ALL in those spots would cost you $90). Or bet the $1 Super for more payout.
Right now you are probably saying "This bet won't even return what you bet if those favorites come in"... but you have to keep in mind this is the PREAKNESS and this is para-mutual betting. There will be tons of novices betting crazy boxes that don't give them proper odds, and plenty of rich players playing millions of combinations, especially those looking for the big score betting against Big Brown.
Besides that, if you end up having the 30 to 1 that comes in 2nd and a 25 to 1 come in 4th, it'll pay.
Just my two cents... best of luck everyone!