Hi guys, anyone doing any ratings for the big race on Tuesday (Monday US)?
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Great race card........ love the 6f straightaway races.Comment -
My ratings have #24 Maluckyday clearly on top (1 length) over #3 So You Think from #11 Descarado/#20 Precedence.
Probably best cup field on paper in many years. So You Think is the current "star" having won our best WFA race 2 years running. The reason he hasn't rated on top is because he has never run further than 2000m (10 furlongs). He is inexperienced (in traditional cup terms) with only 11 starts under his belt. That said, my top rater, has even fewer starts (8 starts for 5 wins).
Descarado won the Caulfield Cup on a heavy track (traditional lead up form race). He was strong on the line after working hard throughout the early stages and then taking up the lead a long way out. Ran 2nd on Saturday to So You Think in final lead up run.
Plenty of foreign horses with a chance as well with main one being Americain who won one of our provincial cups (same lead up form as a prior overseas winner - Media Puzzle).
our weather is really bad right now and the track will play to wet runners.
I will be against my ratings and will have a big win bet on So You Think. He is a superstar, won brilliantly on Saturday and is trained by a legend in Bart Cummings who has already won this race 12 times.
I hate to be obvious and stick with the favourites but my top rater is the only danger in my eyes and I will take a cover bet on him.
This means I am leaving out last years winner, Shocking, who is probably racing better this year than he was 12 months ago BUT this field is much stronger and he rises 6 kg in weight over 2009.
I'll also take a trifecta (first three) and first four as follows :
First : 3,24
Second : 1,2,3,4,5,8,11,12,13,15,19,22,23,24
Third : Field
Fourth : Field
GL and enjoy what should be a truly great race. Hopefully weather eases up a bit and we crown a true champion in So You Think as the Cup winner 2010
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if any one is interested,you can get pp's and other tip sheets at australian racing.com.create pword &user name,and,your all set.
pp's &tips can be found on home page they send you to when you log in.just scroll down, and you should find it.Comment -
almost impossible race to pick a winner with any confidence.
i think shocking is now above the odds. barrier draw in this race is important (he drew 24), but is less important than other races (historically) AND because there is a 1200m run to the first turn.
SYT is now unders, so not worth the risk for a horse that hasn't run anywhere near the distance before. the track is also fvcked, which means anything could happen.
good luck.... for what its worth, i think shocking is still good enough to win, despite the draw and the track. i'm also looking at harris tweed, zipping, descardo and linton.Comment -
i'll be going with so you think, americain, descarado, maluckyday and mr mediciComment -
Hard to go past So you think. IF it really is the champion they say, it will settle well and then blow them away with 300 to go. I dont care that it has not run two miles in a race before. The jockey will just ride it differently, have it nice and settled and then turn on the turbo charger.
For me its 5X on the favorite. If anything else wins it will be a roughie.Comment -
you're betting SYT on faith alone. it is massive unders IMO and i'm tempted to lay it.. despite its run in the mackinnon on sat, i'm not sold. its last sectional (timing wise) wasn't great.
its clearly the BEST horse in the race, but there are too many question marks for the price IMO...Comment -
I am boxing 4 horses:
#11 Descardo
#12 Harris Tweed
#23 Once Were Wild
#24 Maluckyday
I like #23 Once Were Wild to pull off the upset.........Comment
