This is one thing I hate about horse racing

**thezbar** · 06-27-10, 09:27 AM

Bad luck and tuff beat. You can only hope things balance in the future and move on.

**DennisT** · 06-27-10, 10:06 AM

Bad Luck!

**sq764** · 06-27-10, 03:53 PM

odds change on every sporting event after you bet... why is this different?

jw · 06-27-10, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by sq764

odds change on every sporting event after you bet... why is this different?

Because in most (all?) other sporting events .. the odds you get are determined at the time you place your bet. Go into any of the other forums on this board and ask them if they would be willing to put money down on a team winning the game - without knowing what their payout would be until after the event starts and no more bets are allowed ... they would all look at you like you are crazy.

**LostBankroll** · 06-27-10, 05:50 PM

Interesting read here. Thanks for the info.

**robmpink** · 06-27-10, 08:45 PM

Los Al is a track where the odds could be 3-1 one minute before post, then the race goes off and it is 4-5. It is the handle. You didn't get ripped off. What does your point have to do with anything besides money came in late on the other horse and it turned out non beneficial for you?

**wtt0315** · 06-27-10, 08:49 PM

point is the odds didnt change until after race had started so no way to cancel bet. i know one state was looking at stopping all betting 1 minute before post so odds wont change. The problem is if you see a horse 5-1 and you think there is value there and you bet it right at post then the race starts and the odds change after that and it goes 2-1 then maybe you wouldnt of bet it because you lost value. If betting and canceling has stopped then the odds should be stopped also.

**wtt0315** · 06-27-10, 08:56 PM

ESPN.com - Horse Racing - Are changing odds racing's real problem?

http://espn.go.com/horse/columns/misc/1457878.html

it was on tvg one day and i think it was penn and they said they wanted to make it were betting had to stop 1 minute to post so odds wouldnt change but its been a while since i heard that and not sure. I really dont care but honestly if you cant bet or cant cancel the odds should be locked. you should be able to cancel or bet while odds adjust in my own opinion

jw · 06-27-10, 09:12 PM

Only answer is to only play singles - and only play at exchanges (98% of all of my bets are singles - win only - at either betfair or ehorsex) Anyone that can beat the game using tote betting is a genius in my eyes .. its hard enough to beat it when you can fix your odds.

**mproud1** · 06-27-10, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by wtt0315

When you bet on a race and then the odds change after the race starts.
Last night i do the late pick 4 at los alamitos.
They have the rule that you take post time favorite if your horse is scratch. So i have singled the 6 in the race. He scratches 2 minutes to post and i look at the odds and the 4 goes to 3/5 at post time. Now that is the horse i would of singled with the scratch so i figure i will just let it go. The race starts he is still 3/5 favorite and he wins. Then the announcer says oh the 1 just went to 4/5 favorite which meant my single went to the 1. Damn it cost me the pick 4 and 364 bucks
i heard from tvg a while back they were trying to pass a law in 1 state said bettign had to be done 1 minute to post so the odds wouldnt change anyone else heard of that?

3/5 would still be the fav. vs 4/5

**wtt0315** · 06-27-10, 10:38 PM

4 horse that was 3/5 went to 3/2 when 1 horse moved to 4/5

**gtkid911** · 06-27-10, 10:40 PM

Stopping betting a minute before the post would kill handle as most bettors legit wait the last second to bet. With technology thousands of dollars pour in at the last second and this would kill that.

**sq764** · 06-28-10, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by jw

Because in most (all?) other sporting events .. the odds you get are determined at the time you place your bet. Go into any of the other forums on this board and ask them if they would be willing to put money down on a team winning the game - without knowing what their payout would be until after the event starts and no more bets are allowed ... they would all look at you like you are crazy.

and how often do othe sports odds go UP after they bet? When you bet at 9/1 and you get 14/1?

It all evens out..

Remember, sports wagering you are playing against the house, horseracing you are playing against other players..

jw · 06-28-10, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by sq764

and how often do othe sports odds go UP after they bet? When you bet at 9/1 and you get 14/1?

It all evens out..

The odds going up or down is not the issue - it is the fact that you are placing a wager without knowing your return (better or worse) Its probably worth 30% return in my opinion if you can fix your odds at the time the bet is placed (even if the horse happens to drift ... ) I would say that i'm able to get a better price than the tote odds around 80% of the time ..... (average around 15-20% better odds than the starting price... sometimes much higher) If you are on the right horse at odds that are better than the horses chances ... it stands to reason that the odds will most likely shorten ....

... more importantly for me .. being someone who generally plays horses between 3/2 and 3/1 .. you don't get stuck with a few hundred dollars on a horse that goes off @ 1/5 - when the chances of the horse winning are closer to even money.... this is an event that happens MUCH more than it should to those playing on the tote.

Its hard enough working out a horses chance of winning the race without having to guess what the rest of public might do with their $10 or $20 .... if you can't get odds that are better than the horses chance of winning the race .. you can't make money long term .. and betting on the tote - you have no way of knowing if the odds that you get are going to be better or not ... simple as that.

**sq764** · 06-28-10, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by jw

if you can't get odds that are better than the horses chance of winning the race .. you can't make money long term .. and betting on the tote - you have no way of knowing if the odds that you get are going to be better or not ... simple as that.

and this is precisely why less than 2% of all horseplayers can profit in the longrun... its not just knowing the value of your horse, its also knowing the public's action...

And I think your reasoning is very flawed.. you do realize that some places offer in the range of 15% rebates on tracks.. that's a lot of wiggle room to profit

jw · 06-28-10, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by sq764

and this is precisely why less than 2% of all horseplayers can profit in the longrun... its not just knowing the value of your horse, its also knowing the public's action...

Which is exactly what I said in the line right before the one you quoted ...

"Its hard enough working out a horses chance of winning the race without having to guess what the rest of public might do with their $10 or $20"

My reasoning is sound. If you are happy to work with the 15% rebate on whatever odds you might end up with to make the money .. good for you ... i'd much rather take the higher fixed odds so that I know before the race what my return will be .... same logic .. different method ... I'd rather back horses at odds that I calculate to be better than a given horses chance in a race .... we appear to agree however that paying into the tote pools is a mugs game .... ?

Twice today I got 5/1 about a horse that returned 2/1 ..... a 250% rebate is hard to find wherever you look .... thats a LOT more wiggle room ....

**Cappinpicks** · 06-28-10, 10:35 PM

agreed

**Cappinpicks** · 06-28-10, 10:36 PM

xx

**mtneer1212** · 06-28-10, 10:37 PM

closing the pools with 1 min to post will KILL handle...... at some tracks like Yonkers and Northfield, they have 0 min to post for about 10 minutes just to get every dime in the pools

**unusialsusp5** · 06-29-10, 07:39 AM

only bet at tracks with big handles and this won't be an issue.

**robmpink** · 06-29-10, 07:46 AM

I don't agree with what you said about closing the pools, however, I have been in the same boat as you with a horse scratched and two horses are close in odds as the race went off. I just hope one of them wins, then check the pools on TVG after the race. It is like two bets in one.

**sq764** · 06-29-10, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

only bet at tracks with big handles and this won't be an issue.

this is an excellent point... not only that but if you are betting into small pools, be prepared for favorites to drop bigtime.. If you're betting into Saratoga t-bred pools, odds will shift ever so slightly.. If you're expecting your 27/1, 5/1 ML horse at Pocono Downs to stay, you're not paying attention.

**wtt0315** · 06-29-10, 09:25 AM

they just talked about it again on tvg yesterday someone asked rich the annoucer the same question on same race. he wants alternates on pick 3's and 4s not a bad idea

**Brewers in 7** · 06-29-10, 03:11 PM

I think they tried this at a few tracks a while back, they closed pools when the 1st horse went in the gate, the problem is the late money from the simulcast outlets always comes in last, but it is funny how whenever i hit one, the odds never go up, they always go down.

**robmpink** · 06-29-10, 05:09 PM

I respect everyones opinion. Anyone who normally bets Los Al, knows this happens practically every race. This is die to the handle and how people bet there. Yes, it does happen once in a blue moon at the bigger tracks, but it would just be silly to do what you are suggesting. Who does it benefit? The people who bet a pick 4 and a horse gets scratched?