Jw Spot Plays

**ncat12** · 06-09-10, 10:17 AM

thnks for the plays jw ...you follow the md horses or study the drf...colonial

jw · 06-09-10, 10:51 AM

These are just my spot plays based on speed &/or trainer angles ... no judgement used really picking these out ... just a couple of mechanical "systems" I use that show small grinding profits over the long-term. I generally use these alongside my "Stable Alerts" and add a bit of real form reading when i get time.

Glad you pointed that one out though ... at colonial the bet should be :

Colonial - R7 - #3 - Track Mayor
Colonial - R7 - #7 - Watch Tower

NOT Swampy Town ...

Trainer there is hitting @ 50% so far this season - worth dutching his two horses if they both run @ those prices.

**joemc44** · 06-09-10, 11:37 AM

jw good luck, they are tough tracks for me to cap.

jw · 06-09-10, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by joemc44

jw good luck, they are tough tracks for me to cap.

Cheers

As I say - I don't really cap them .. just use a couple of systems that throw out a few bets each day .....

**donkdown** · 06-09-10, 01:33 PM

free pts

jw · 06-09-10, 05:11 PM

Indiana is muddy - so my plays there will be changed to no-plays
Penn is sloppy - no play there either.

jw · 06-09-10, 11:16 PM

Results for June 9th

Evangeline – R6 – View Of Broadway - 3rd - ($20.00)
Penn – R7 – #5 – Bobby’s Bell - Won @ 2.40 - $68.00
Evangeline – R9 – #2 – Davids City Girl - Won @ 2.60 - $76.00

Northlands – R8 – #1 – Colombiano - Scratched

Assiniboia - R1 - #7 - Delaware Doe - Lost - ($20.00)
Colonial - R7 - #3 - Track Mayor - Scratched
Colonial - R7 - #7 - Watch Tower - Lost - ($20.00)
Indiana - R8 - #2 - Palm Springs - 2nd @ 15.30 W/P - Place paid $168.00

Bets - $140 - returns - $301 - Profit $161

Edit : Will figure profit/Loss to a $20 stake - all bets to win only -0 unless the horse is around 4/1 (7/2 would be ok too - but no lower) in which case we play $20 Win/Place.

**ncat12** · 06-10-10, 08:51 AM

thanks for the input jw

jw · 06-10-10, 09:31 AM

I normally play the selections to win - unless they are 4/1 or over - in which case I play Win/Place.

Lots today .. top group are always strongest ..

Churchill – R2 – #3 – Esperamos
Churchill – R4 – #2 – Octavia Blue
Finger Lakes – R8 – #3 – Apple
Ruidoso – R7 – #6 – Kineticat Yankee
Evangeline – R9 – #3 – Terri

Calder – R4 – #6 – R Slick Fifty
Finger Lakes - R7 – 1A – Run Warrior Run
Louisiana – R7 – #10 – Garbo and She
Penn – R4 – #3 – Wild Man Walking
Woodbine – R5 – #2 – Alwaysadream

Arlington - R5 - #1 - Jo's Finale
Belmont - R5 - #1 - Grace and Courage
Hollywood - R2 - #2 - Negra Tomasa
Presque - R2 - #4 - Sneakin' A Smoke

**donkdown** · 06-10-10, 10:14 AM

lets cash

jw · 06-10-10, 12:30 PM

Results

Churchill – R2 – #3 – Esperamos - W/P - 2nd - place paid $48.00
Churchill – R4 – #2 – Octavia Blue - Won @ 3/1 - Win Paid $84.00
Finger Lakes – R8 – #3 – Apple - Won @ 1-1 - Win Paid $41.00
Ruidoso – R7 – #6 – Kineticat Yankee - Won @ 1/5 - Win Paid $26.00
Evangeline – R9 – #3 – Terri - 2nd

Calder – R4 – #6 – R Slick Fifty - 2nd
Finger Lakes - R7 – 1A – Run Warrior Run - Won @ 7/5 - Paid $49.00
Louisiana – R7 – #10 – Garbo and She - W/P Lost
Penn – R4 – #3 – Wild Man Walking - Won @ 5/2 - paid $78.00
Woodbine – R5 – #2 – Alwaysadream - Won @ 8/5 - Paid $53.00

Arlington - R5 - #1 - Jo's Finale - W/P - Lost
Belmont - R5 - #1 - Grace and Courage - Won @ 5/2 Win returned $75.00
Hollywood - R2 - #2 - Negra Tomasa - W/P - Lost
Presque - R2 - #4 - Sneakin' A Smoke - W/P - Lost

Bets placed $380 - Returns - $454 - Profit $74.

2-day profit = $235

jw · 06-10-10, 01:08 PM

Church - R4 is off the turf - so I won't be playing it - bet will stand for tracking purposes.

jw · 06-11-10, 09:34 AM

June 11th - will keep posting until I get to $1000 profit using $20 bets.

remember - 7/2 or 4/1+ $20 Win/Place - else $20 Win bets.

Louisiana - R2 - #8 - Hey Possum
Lone Star - R4 - #2 - Classic Leader
Charles Town - R7 - #3 - Lil Bright Berry

Finger Lakes - R7 - #4 - Jazz Performer
Belmont - R9 - #1 - Honorable Truth
Lousisiana - R9 - #11 - Disco Double
Evangeline - R3 - #4 - Our Little Doodlebug. 1/2 Stakes
Churchill - R5 - #3 - At First Speight
Charles Town - R5 - #10 - She's So Proud

**ncat12** · 06-11-10, 02:02 PM

charelston goes off around 7 is that correct?

jw · 06-11-10, 02:05 PM

Charles Town 1st race is @ 7.15pm Eastern .. yes ...

Correction : Finger Lakes - R7 - #4 - Jazz Performer should be #9 Jazz performer .. not #4

jw · 06-11-10, 02:18 PM

June 11th - Results

Louisiana - R2 - #8 - Hey Possum - Won @ 0.6 - $12.00 profit
Lone Star - R4 - #2 - Classic Leader - 2nd - (-$20.00)
Charles Town - R7 - #3 - Lil Bright Berry - Won @ 0.80 - Profit = $16.00

Finger Lakes - R7 - #4 - Jazz Performer - WP - Lost -$40.00
Belmont - R9 - #1 - Honorable Truth - Won @ 1-1 - $20.00
Lousisiana - R9 - #11 - Disco Double - WP - Won @ 9/2 - $112 Profit
Evangeline - R3 - #4 - Our Little Doodlebug. 1/2 Stakes - Scratched
Churchill - R5 - #3 - At First Speight - Won @ 2.30 - Profit = $46.00
Charles Town - R5 - #10 - She's So Proud - Lost - (-$20.00)

Profit Today : $126
3-day profit (from $20 bets) = $361

jw · 06-12-10, 11:00 AM

June 12th - Selections

I hate having this many plays in a day ... but its a system selection .. so if they are thrown out there - ya gots to play 'em.
Slight change to staking for today: 7/2 or higher play $10 win/place - under 7/2 play $20 win.
Times listed are estimated jump times (central time zone) - top group are the stronger plays.

Good Luck

11.50 - Monmouth - R1 - #4 - All in No Outs
12.10 - Finger Lakes - R1 - #1 - Lisa's Booby
01.35 - Lone Star - R1 - #4 - Bucks Pocket
01.36 - Suffolk - R5 - #6 - Sea Scamp
02.00 - Arapahoe - R1 - #4 - My Boots Boogie
04.18 - Delaware - R10 - #10 - Dance with James
05.20 - Presque - R3 - #6 - Another Gulch
06.51 - Sun Ray - R10 - #1 - Corina Who

12.42 - Delaware - R2 - #5 - Graziano
2.20 - Monmouth - Gold is Good
3.48 - Northlands - R5 - #4 - Juan Might
4.42 - Arlington - R8 - #5 - Canadian Lynx
7.08 - Penn - R5 - #1a - Minidrop
7.28 - Evangeline - R5 - #1 - Shakin it Boss
9.52 - Charles Town - R9 - #4 - Fisher

**joemc44** · 06-12-10, 11:02 AM

good luck today jw, keep it going

jw · 06-12-10, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by joemc44

good luck today jw, keep it going

you too buddy !

jw · 06-12-10, 12:04 PM

June 12th - Results

11.50 - Monmouth - R1 - #4 - All in No Outs - Won @ 3/1 - Profit $60.00
12.10 - Finger Lakes - R1 - #1 - Lisa's Booby Trap - Won @ 1/9 - Profit $2.00
01.35 - Lone Star - R1 - #4 - Bucks Pocket - WP - 2nd @ 4/1 - Profit $2.00
01.36 - Suffolk - R5 - #6 - Sea Scamp - Won @ 0.90 - Profit $18.00
02.00 - Arapahoe - R1 - #4 - My Boots Boogie - Won @ 0.30 - Profit $3.00
04.18 - Delaware - R10 - #10 - Dance with James - Lost - ($20.00)
05.20 - Presque - R3 - #6 - Another Gulch - Won @ 1.5 - Profit $30.00
06.51 - Sun Ray - R10 - #1 - Corina Who - 3rd - ($20.00)

12.42 - Delaware - R2 - #5 - Graziano - WP - 3rd - ($20.00)
2.20 - Monmouth - Gold is Good - WP - Lost - ($20.00)
3.48 - Northlands - R5 - #4 - Juan Might - WP - Won @ 3.95 - Profit $51.00
4.42 - Arlington - R8 - #5 - Canadian Lynx - 3rd - ($20.00)
7.08 - Penn - R5 - #1a - Minidrop - Won @ 0.70 - profit $7.00
7.28 - Evangeline - R5 - #1 - Shakin it Boss - WP - Lost - ($20.00)
9.52 - Charles Town - R9 - #4 - Fisher - WP - Lost - ($20.00)

Profit Today : $33
4-day profit (from $20 bets) = $394

jw · 06-12-10, 01:59 PM

Arapahoe is sloppy - no play for me in that one - but bet will stand for record keeping.
Charles Town = sloppy so another "No Play" for me - but again - bet will stand for tracking.

**ncat12** · 06-14-10, 12:50 PM

june 11 was a nice one jw...I used your horse along w/ one of mind and was able to hit a lil ex...thanks

jw · 06-14-10, 01:06 PM

no probs - on vacation for the next week or two - but will resume when i get back

**ncat12** · 06-15-10, 02:51 PM

cool jw and have a good time on vacation

jw · 06-23-10, 04:17 PM

June 23rd Selections

Pleasanton - R4 - #4 - With respect (Win)
Northlands - R4 - #8 - Jekar (Win/Place)

jw · 06-23-10, 04:40 PM

Note : Change "Jekar" to win only bet .. as the odds are nowhere near the morning line.

June 23rd Results

Pleasanton - R4 - #4 - With respect (Win) - Won @ 3/2 - Profit = $30
Northlands - R4 - #8 - Jekar (Win) - Lost

Profit Today : $10
5-day profit (from $20 bets) = $404

Hopefully have time to check all meetings/races tomorrow.

jw · 06-25-10, 11:14 AM

June 25th Selections

1.40 - River - R6 - #3 - Blazing Dan
3.46 - River - R12 - #6 - Caspia
6.56 - Prairiw - R2 - #6 - Pat's Magic
7.08 - Penn - R5 - #6 - Mountain Route
9.25 - Charles Town - R8 - #1 - Local Celebrity

12.20 - Monmouth - R2 - #1 - onwingsandaprayer
3.27 - Pha - R2 - #3 - Hello Precious
5.02 - Rui - R8 - #4 - Wildleigh Golden

**donkdown** · 06-25-10, 12:17 PM

jw · 06-25-10, 12:44 PM

June 25th Results

1.40 - River - R6 - #3 - Blazing Dan - Won @ 0.70 - Profit = $14
3.46 - River - R12 - #6 - Caspia - 2nd - (20.00)
6.56 - Prairiw - R2 - #6 - Pat's Magic - 2nd (20.00)
7.08 - Penn - R5 - #6 - Mountain Route - Lost - (20.00)
9.25 - Charles Town - R8 - #1 - Local Celebrity - 3rd - (20.00)

12.20 - Monmouth - R2 - #1 - onwingsandaprayer - Non Runner
3.27 - Pha - R2 - #3 - Hello Precious - lost (20.00)
5.02 - Rui - R8 - #4 - Wildleigh Golden - Won @ 0.30 - Profit = 6.00

Looks like we're in for a very sucky day ... can't win 'em all I guess.

At least two of them were very unlucky ... had running line taken from them ... ahh well - tomorrow is another day

Loss today $80.00
6-day profit (from $20 bets) = $324

**Kav** · 06-25-10, 01:25 PM

so each of your bets are always 10$ win 10$ place?

jw · 06-25-10, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by Kav

so each of your bets are always 10$ win 10$ place?

As you can see there are always two "sets" of selections with a break between them ... the upper set have a better strike rate than the lower set (which usually have better odds)

Personally - I bet the top set of selections @ 3x the stake of the second set of selections ... I also bet win only ....
I actually bet as a percentage of my bank - upper set of selections I bet 6% of my bank - lower set - I bet 2% of my bank.

So if I had a $5000 bank - i'd be putting $300 to win on the top set of horses and $100 on the lower set - If I had a $200 bank - it'd be $12 win the top set and $4 to win the lower set ... bank is recalculated after each race.

For the sake of tracking on this thread .. its $20 win if the horse is 7/2 or lower - or $10 Win/Place if the horse is over 7/2 .. its just easier to track the results that way.

jw · 06-26-10, 11:13 AM

Looks like we might be hitting a bit of a lean patch - so adjust stakes downwards until form returns.
Will just put "Best Bets" up for today. Times listed are central.

June 26th Selections

2.26 - pinnacle - #1a - Banning
2.40 - Yavapai - #3 - Snowbound Tiger
4.10 - Yavapai - #2 - Sanfire
4.15 - Northlands - R6 - #2 - Dancing Melody
6.19 - Penn - R3 - #2 - Global Inspiration
8.25 - Indiana - R7 - #1 - Sailors Pasttiime
9.46 - Fairmount - R6 - #1 - Afleet Deceit

jw · 06-26-10, 02:34 PM

June 26th Results

2.26 - pinnacle - #1a - Banning - Won @ 1.40 - profit $28.00
2.40 - Yavapai - #3 - Snowbound Tiger - Won @ 0.40 - Profit $8.00
4.10 - Yavapai - #2 - Sanfire - Scratched
4.15 - Northlands - R6 - #2 - Dancing Melody - 2nd @ 7/2 - (20.00)
6.19 - Penn - R3 - #2 - Global Inspiration - Lost - (20.00)
8.25 - Indiana - R7 - #1 - Sailors Pasttiime - Won @ 1.5 - Profit $30.00
9.46 - Fairmount - R6 - #1 - Afleet Deceit - Scratched

Profit today $26.00
7-day profit (from $20 bets) = $350

jw · 06-27-10, 09:34 AM

June 27th Selections.

Just one for me today

4.42 - Northlands - R7 - #3 - Lambeau Leap