Horses From the UK

**singgooner** · 06-06-10, 12:56 PM

mate, at least you are hitting the cross-bar and they are troubling the judge.

Which means your system has merit !

**Marvelboy** · 06-06-10, 01:42 PM

The system has gone mental tomorrow and given us 7 bets

4.10 Naas Geesala 1 unit win
2.45 Folkstone Matsunosuke 1 unit win
3.40 Naas Snaefell 1 unit win
3.00 Newton Abbott Lady Pilot 1 unit win
7.45 Ponte Bated Breath 2 units win
7.00 Windsor Stags Leap 2 units win
8.30 Windsor Night Lily 1 unit win

**curious** · 06-06-10, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Marvelboy

Another bloody 2nd

hey captain, since your picks seem to always hit the board (win, place, or show), instead of betting them to win why don't you bet them X to win, 2X to place, and 4X to show? For example, $20 to win, $40 to place, $80 to show.

**Marvelboy** · 06-06-10, 04:38 PM

Thanks Curious, but I use a UK book and we dont bet like that, we can only bet win or each way (1/5 of the odds for 2nd or 3rd), im not sure how I would work it out as the usa tote work different over here.

jw · 06-06-10, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Marvelboy

Thanks Curious, but I use a UK book and we dont bet like that, we can only bet win or each way (1/5 of the odds for 2nd or 3rd), im not sure how I would work it out as the usa tote work different over here.

20% win - 80% place only on betfair might work .... but the short price of some of the selections would not make that kind of bet worthwhile .. would also depend on number of runners ... as long as your strike rate remains at above 50% and your average selection price @ above even money - you're doing fine

**Marvelboy** · 06-07-10, 02:43 PM

Night lily was just beaten by a head to cost us profit on the day

4.10 Naas Geesala 1 unit win unplaced -1
2.45 Folkstone Matsunosuke 1 unit win unplaced -1
3.40 Naas Snaefell 1 unit win unplaced -1
3.00 Newton Abbott Lady Pilot 1 unit win Unplaced -1
7.45 Ponte Bated Breath 2 units win ( WON SP +1.3 units Price Taken 11/10 + 2.2 units)
7.00 Windsor Stags Leap 2 units win WON ( SP 10/11 + 1.8units, Price Taken 10/11 +1.8 units)
8.30 Windsor Night Lily 1 unit win 2nd -1

Overall today

SP - 1.9 units
Price Taken -1 unit

-----------------

21 bets
9 Wins
12 Loss
SP -0.18
Price Taken + 3.67

**Marvelboy** · 06-07-10, 04:04 PM

3 bets tomorrow on the 08/06/2010

~~2.30 redcar Tropical Bachelor 2 units~~ NON RUNNER
7.05 Southwell Cannon Fire 2 units ( price taken 1.57)
7.50 Bangor Seeyaaj 1 unit ( price taken 3.25 (9/4))

**singgooner** · 06-08-10, 02:15 PM

Marvelboy,

Have a check of your 2unit tips - so far - those 2 unit tips that you have posted on here are 6 for 8 = 75% - FANTASTIC mate - Keep the faith !

Just check my thinking

3rd June - King of Eden won 8/11f
4th June - Aestival won 2/5f, Bona Fortune won 4/5f & Fame & Glory won
5th June - Sir Frank 2nd
6th June - Command Marshal 2nd
7th June - Stags Leap won 10/11f
8th June - Cannon Fire won 4/9f

all at SP - you should be able to check better prices before the off !

Not bad with a martingale system !

**Marvelboy** · 06-08-10, 03:29 PM

martingale system a bit like the chase system that I read about on here? thank you for doing those stats much appreciated

7.05 Southwell Cannon Fire 2 units ( price taken 1.57) won by 27 lengths
7.50 Bangor Seeyaaj 1 unit ( price taken 3.25 (9/4)) drifted out to 13/2 (7.5) and came 2nd shame he didnt get up as it would have been a very nice win

broke even tonight will post results later and tomorrows system bets within the next hour

**Marvelboy** · 06-08-10, 04:08 PM

Two bets tomorrow (09/06/2010)

8.35 Hamilton Royal Dignitary 2 units win @ 2.1
5.10 Yarmouth Sharp Eclipse 1 unit win ( no price availble yet)

**singgooner** · 06-08-10, 06:08 PM

Martingale System is when you double up after a loss

so its 1 unit - if you lose - next bet - 2 units - then 4 units, 8units, 16 units - until you get a winner

If you have a strike rate of over 70%+ - martingale system should work.

Go back over all your tips from Cape Rio onwards and you might see some good results on 2 unit wins

jw · 06-08-10, 06:34 PM

Losing Runs

http://laytheodds.com/lay-betting/articles/losing-runs/

Losing Runs. This article considers losing runs, their importance, how their length may be calculated and how this affects our staking strategy. Losing runs

even with a 70% strike rate - you should expect a losing run every 1000 bets of at least 6 ... this would mean over the course of a year - at an average of three bets per day ... at some point you should expect to be betting 127 points to win 1 point .... not my idea of fun ... martingale or any version of it should be avoided at all costs.

The way I would look at betting something like this is .....

Start bank = $500/points/whatevers - bet 4% to win on each selection. (or 3% of bank on 1 point bets and 5% of bank on 2 point bets) Recalculate after each race.

**PROMAS** · 06-09-10, 05:49 AM

Well done for your system Marvelboy! Your picks looks excellent! If the 2units picks have 70% strike rate, then any price over 100/70=1,42 (international odds price) has value. And as more over this price is, so more value for your pick in the long term. Martingale will work for some periods, but i 'll agree with jw, that in the long term will destroy our bank, or at least our heart...

I bet to BET365 too, but sometimes Betfair have better prices, check ti to see. I leave in Europe too, i don't know if guys from USA can bet at these bookies.

I gave you some points in your today's post with the picks! I also post the picks from a known service in U.K., you can check them too.

G.L. for today!

P.S. The system you use is yours, or something known we can buy? Thanks!

**Marvelboy** · 06-09-10, 03:34 PM

Promas, its my system and im still tweaking as I go along, I wouldnt sell it as im not here to charge people.

I do use betfair but as im doing it on paper Im just uising industry SP.

Very unlucky today Sharp Eclipse getting 2nd and Royal Dignatry not getting the rail and hitting the front early cost the race.

**Marvelboy** · 06-09-10, 04:50 PM

Yet again the system has thrown a few up

8.20 Haydock Victory Ide Say 1 unit
3.05 Newbury Lady Darshaan 1 unit
8.10 Uttox Zafar 1 unit
8.40 Uttox Dereks 1 unit
9.00 Fontwell Cannon Fire 2 units
4.00 Nottingham Decorative 2 units
6.10 Nottingham King Zeal 1 unit

**singgooner** · 06-09-10, 05:06 PM

Marvelboy,

Keep the faith - win strike rate 70% is good in anyone's money.

In the money strike rate - 10/10 = 100% - shows you are defo hitting the crossbar - just sometimes the crossbar - but still good !

**PROMAS** · 06-10-10, 05:10 AM

I agree Marvelboy, with singgooner, keep going, some bad results are part of the game! Grate system so far! Congratulations to you! I din't mean to buy it and thanks for share it with us! Yesterday's picks from the service i told you to my previous post, both won! You can see today's picks and tell me your opinion. I have posted them. Thanks, and G.L. for today's races!

**Marvelboy** · 06-10-10, 12:25 PM

Off to a flying start tonight:

Posted the results so far and the prices ive taken

8.20 Haydock Victory Ide Say 1 unit @ 3.25 WON + 2.25, +1.88(sp)
3.05 Newbury Lady Darshaan 1 unit LOST - 1
8.10 Uttox Zafar 1 unit @ 4.00 LOST - 1
8.40 Uttox Dereks 1 unit @ 3.00 LOST - 1
9.00 Fontwell Cannon Fire 2 units @ 1.57
4.00 Nottingham Decorative 2 units WON @ 2.75 (sp and price taken) +3.5
6.10 Nottingham King Zeal 1 unit WON @ 3.25 (sp) + 2.25 / 3.50 price taken +2.50

jw · 06-10-10, 12:40 PM

Nice again so far .. may have to start following this with real money soon ... looks very consistent.

- Thanks for sharing

**Marvelboy** · 06-10-10, 01:48 PM

I wouldnt advise money yet, it still needs a few final tweaks.....but fingers crossed we can get one of the 1 unit wins and the 2 unit bet should win hands down id be suprised if he got beat

**Marvelboy** · 06-10-10, 04:10 PM

Overall a very good day, Cannon Fire was cruising and fell 4 jumps out, which was a bit gutting

8.20 Haydock Victory Ide Say 1 unit @ 3.25 WON + 2.25, +1.88(sp)
3.05 Newbury Lady Darshaan 1 unit LOST - 1
8.10 Uttox Zafar 1 unit @ 4.00 LOST - 1
8.40 Uttox Dereks 1 unit @ 3.00 LOST - 1
9.00 Fontwell Cannon Fire 2 units @ 1.57 LOST -2
4.00 Nottingham Decorative 2 units WON @ 2.75 (sp and price taken) +3.5
6.10 Nottingham King Zeal 1 unit WON @ 3.25 (sp) + 2.25 / 3.50 price taken +2.50

Overall today

Price Taken +3.25
SP +2.63

Total so far

30 bets
13 Wins
17 Loss
SP +2.45
Price Taken + 6.92

**Marvelboy** · 06-11-10, 06:06 AM

Hi Guys this will be my last post till sunday as im going away this weekend, so the system will have a two day break.

Out of the all the racing today only one horse meets the criteria

4.25 Sandown - RESURGER 1 unit @ 7.00

jw · 06-11-10, 07:07 AM

Originally posted by Marvelboy

Hi Guys this will be my last post till sunday as im going away this weekend, so the system will have a two day break.

Out of the all the racing today only one horse meets the criteria

4.25 Sandown - RESURGER 1 unit @ 7.00

Good Luck

**PROMAS** · 06-11-10, 07:56 AM

Nice work MarvelBoy. Keep going and thanks for posting! Have a nice weekend and BOL for today!

**Marvelboy** · 06-13-10, 01:44 PM

im back now

one bet tomorrow

2.45 Carlisle - COBO BAY 2units win

**Marvelboy** · 06-14-10, 11:56 AM

COBO BAY WINS BY 9 Lengths

2 units win @ 2.1, (sp and price taken) +2.2 units

**Marvelboy** · 06-14-10, 03:04 PM

Four bets for 15/06/2010

2.30 Ascot Goldikova 2 units @ 2.62 (13/8)
3.05 Ascot Kinsgate Native 1 unit @ 4.33 (10/3)
3.50 Ascot Canford Cliffs 1 unit @ 3.00 (2/1)
8.15 Newton Abbot Classic Clover 1 unit win @ 5.00 (4/1)

**singgooner** · 06-15-10, 05:05 AM

Hi,

Keep watching your 2pts tips - 9/13 = nearly 70% win strike rate - very good !

**singgooner** · 06-15-10, 12:06 PM

Hi,

Goldikova WINS !

2pts tips - 10/14 = 71.4% win strike rate - looking very good

**Marvelboy** · 06-15-10, 01:01 PM

Thanks for the pts singooner

I cant complain so far about today

Four bets for 15/06/2010

2.30 Ascot Goldikova 2 units @ 2.62 (13/8) WON SP + 2.75 Price Taken + 3.24
3.05 Ascot Kinsgate Native 1 unit @ 4.33 (10/3) LOST - 1 unit
3.50 Ascot Canford Cliffs 1 unit @ 3.00 (2/1) WON SP + 2.75 Price Taken +2
8.15 Newton Abbot Classic Clover 1 unit win @ 5.00 (4/1) LOST - 1 unit

Today + 4.5 (sp) + 4.24 (Price Taken)

Total so far

36 bets
16 Wins
20 Loss
SP +8.15
Price Taken + 12.36

**Marvelboy** · 06-15-10, 04:52 PM

16/06/2010

2.30 Ascot Free Judgement 1 unit @ 5.5
3.50 Ascot Byword 2units @ 3.75
2.55 Hamilton Destiny´s Dancer 1 unit win

[

**PROMAS** · 06-16-10, 08:20 AM

Bol marvelboy! Keep going, you do greate! Thanks for posting!!!

**sportscash** · 06-16-10, 08:26 AM

Good luck

**Marvelboy** · 06-16-10, 11:47 AM

Another 2 unit winner :-)

2.30 Ascot Free Judgement 1 unit @ 5.5 LOST -1
3.50 Ascot Byword 2units @ 3.75 WON + 5.5 on SP and price taken
2.55 Hamilton Destiny´s Dancer 1 unit win 2nd -1

Total so far

39 Bets
17 Wins
22 Loss
SP +11.65
Price Taken + 15.86

**singgooner** · 06-16-10, 12:07 PM

Dude, I was out today - what was i saying about your 2pts advices - YOU ROCK MAN !

So far 11/15 = 73.3% win strike rate - keep the faith mate - your 2pts selections are hot !