belmont stakes

**JBEX** · 06-03-25, 08:38 PM

considering a 2 combo triple with journalism and sovereignty in 2nd and whisper hill in 3rd

6/27/1 ..think this would pay about $125 for $2

**Pigpen** · 06-04-25, 06:55 AM

I am with you JB on finding one other than the two big boys here but I am going in another direction with the #3 Rodriguez. That effort in the Wood looks legit to me. They took the blinkers off this guy and he responded with a great effort. If the #5 does not go with him and press the pace early he may get the same setup he did in his last race and they will have a hard time reeling him in. I believe he will be the fourth choice and I can get every bit of the 6-1 ML I will demand. The dam is a proven producer with 7 winners from 7 starters including 3 stakes winners. Going to be a fun race for sure!!!!!!!

**JBEX** · 06-05-25, 07:08 AM

like that at a bit of a price pigpen .. he did improve with the blinkers off and there's not a ton of speed .. I do however think baeza is going to be aggressively ridden because of that and probably has the ability
to stay with him..while crudo shows speed I don't think it's at this level but still he will contribute to it not being run at a snail's pace .. I agree that it's an interesting race and some good betting angles to beat the 2 almost co-favorites.. unfortunately seems there's a good chance it will be an off track but maybe we'll get lucky with that..if so the top 3 have all ran on one (and well) in the derby

**brock** · 06-05-25, 03:15 PM

Probably breakeven but thinking of boxing four in the super.
And four in the tri.
2 Soverignty
3 Rodriquez
6 Baeza
7 Journalism
Rodriquez will go out front and see how long he can hold out.
The only horse that will help the payout being in the top three.

**JBEX** · 06-05-25, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by brock

Probably breakeven but thinking of boxing four in the super.
And four in the tri.
2 Soverignty
3 Rodriquez
6 Baeza
7 Journalism
Rodriquez will go out front and see how long he can hold out.
The only horse that will help the payout being in the top three.

acknowledge you could miss playing less combos but I look at it this way if you're playing those ..they are currently the top 4 choices

your position in the race is you like rodriguez (#3) at the odds ..rather than do a 24 combo 4 horse box , keying him in first and 2nd with the others would cut that in half ..then you might weigh it a little heavier if he finishes 2nd

ex :

$1 tri 3/267 = $6
$2'tri 267/3/267 =$12

thus way you are taking more of a position with rodriguez and will have it twice if he finishes 2nd..
top 3 finish 123 or rodriguez lands in 3rd with any combo of the other 3 in the top 2 you lose .. if your position is rodriguez to me he's got to finish top 2 ..even 3rd is not enough for the 4th choice in the race ..i'm not a fan of 4 horse trifecta boxes with the top choices .. with this you'll cut down your bet size by 25% (18 vs 24) and have it for more if he finishes 2nd

**JBEX** · 06-05-25, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by JBEX

considering a 2 combo triple with journalism and sovereignty in 2nd and whisper hill in 3rd

6/27/1 ..think this would pay about $125 for $2

with the way this is being bet early I would have journalism (7) 2x heavier in 2nd than sovereignty ..I like him better anyway ..realize this is only a trickle of the total amount that will be bet but still an indicator that sharp money is not crazy about sovereignty

**Pigpen** · 06-06-25, 01:37 AM

Journalism is a beast. I am interested to see if that trip in the Preakness took a toll. It does not appear to have bothered him as he looks the part at Saratoga but we will see in the last quarter mile Saturday. I am hoping the rain will subside because the card is very good.

**mrginandtonic** · 06-06-25, 03:15 AM

With Sovereignty and Baeza in the field, I think Journalism is not gonna be heavily favored. I believe most will think that the fresher horses will have an edge over Journalism. I agree with Pigpen, he is a beast at least in this year’s crop. He is the true 1 1/4 horse. I think he should have won the Derby, in my opinion Rispoli moved a little too soon. I am going heavy on him on the win wager. Playing a straight exacta with the 4- Uncaged; trifecta 7-4-2,3,6. Uncaged being son of Curlin, he has more tactical speed than the other three. He should outrun his odds. GL all.

**JBEX** · 06-06-25, 09:05 AM

agree about journalism and think skies the limit with how good he can be ..maybe a generational talent type horse .. think baeza also may have that potential but started a little later..two very above average horses for this level imo

betting started yesterday and I'd say there's less than 1% of what will be in ..still a lot

J 6-5
B 3-1
S 7-2
R 7-1

**brock** · 06-06-25, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by JBEX

acknowledge you could miss playing less combos but I look at it this way if you're playing those ..they are currently the top 4 choices

your position in the race is you like rodriguez (#3) at the odds ..rather than do a 24 combo 4 horse box , keying him in first and 2nd with the others would cut that in half ..then you might weigh it a little heavier if he finishes 2nd

ex :

$1 tri 3/267 = $6
$2'tri 267/3/267 =$12

thus way you are taking more of a position with rodriguez and will have it twice if he finishes 2nd..
top 3 finish 123 or rodriguez lands in 3rd with any combo of the other 3 in the top 2 you lose .. if your position is rodriguez to me he's got to finish top 2 ..even 3rd is not enough for the 4th choice in the race ..i'm not a fan of 4 horse trifecta boxes with the top choices .. with this you'll cut down your bet size by 25% (18 vs 24) and have it for more if he finishes 2nd

Good thought. May key in third. Just looking for some action when watching the race. I'm a small better. $1 ex box
and $1 tri. Even 50 cent tri and ten cent supers.

**brock** · 06-06-25, 11:26 AM

I do think your pick is a good one for first or second. Baeza.

**brock** · 06-06-25, 11:30 AM

Anyway going to be a good race. the way Journalism overcame trouble in his last race
it will be hard to say anything bad about him. I thought there would have been a inquiry against
him for dangerous riding.

**brock** · 06-06-25, 05:09 PM

Odd that it's a mile and a quarter instead of a mile and a half.
I think they said because of the track layout.

**JBEX** · 06-06-25, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by brock

Anyway going to be a good race. the way Journalism overcame trouble in his last race
it will be hard to say anything bad about him. I thought there would have been a inquiry against
him for dangerous riding.

there's a bit of sentiment on both sides of this but majority from discussing it on here seems to be it was reckless riding ..i'm more on the neutral to it wasn't side

Originally posted by brock

Odd that it's a mile and a quarter instead of a mile and a half.
I think they said because of the track layout.

yes belmont is the only mile and a half track in america.. saratoga is not set up for running that distance

**JBEX** · 06-06-25, 09:35 PM

to elaborate a little more on hill road underneath..these are "all" my observations from the pp's and nothing gleaned from anybody else's comments or write-ups

broke his maiden first out at 1 mile on the turf in ireland..to do that in early august as a 2yo is impressive in addition to winning by a big margin

didn't do much running in the following grade 1 at the curragh ..jumping up to that level ,especially in europe, is a very big step for a 2yo who just broke his maiden first out ..possible had something to do with the trip but there's no comment offered ..going to give him a pass on that one

46 days later and about 6k miles traveled he's running in the bc juvenile at del mar and finishes 3rd by <5L closing > 3L in the stretch ..if that race were extended to today's distance he'd be right there at the wire and we're still discussing a 2yo

no chance with the slow pace in the tampa bay derby which was his 3yo debut..ran a relatively even race and not a bad foundation for going forward

wins the peter pan stakes next,again closing a lot of ground in the final eighth which bodes well for the extra furlong of the belmont ..that not being a high figure or thought of race are big parts of what gets you nice odds

chad brown and irad..not just any trainer jock combo

I feel he's done some subtle nice things along the way and had some decent excuses for the bad ones ..maybe not up to beating an above average edition of this race but have no problem playing him in 2nd or 3rd surrounded by the logicals in supers and triples .. I'm not interested in 4th .. has to be 2nd or 3rd to impress me

**JBEX** · 06-06-25, 10:08 PM

with his path and spacing hill road comes into this race fresher than anybody..I'm referring to his last few races and not his previous start

**mrginandtonic** · 06-07-25, 02:34 AM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

With Sovereignty and Baeza in the field, I think Journalism is not gonna be heavily favored. I believe most will think that the fresher horses will have an edge over Journalism. I agree with Pigpen, he is a beast at least in this year’s crop. He is the true 1 1/4 horse. I think he should have won the Derby, in my opinion Rispoli moved a little too soon. I am going heavy on him on the win wager. Playing a straight exacta with the 4- Uncaged; trifecta 7-4-2,3,6. Uncaged being son of Curlin, he has more tactical speed than the other three. He should outrun his odds. GL all.

Gonna put a few $ WPon the 4- Uncaged (ML 30-1). Broke his maiden at SAR on a muddy track, 2 for 2 on wet track now. Not sure what they are going to rate the track tomorrow. At those odds, why not.

**str** · 06-07-25, 09:45 AM

It will be interesting to see if the wet/ sloppy/ whatever track favors a position like speed / inside/outside or whatever. And because I would want to factor all that into a Belmont pick, I will wait. But... With the best 3 horses on paper having 2 closers and Baeza probably wanting to sit about 3-4 off the lead, this race has a decent chance to be ALL about the pace.
I saw the quote from Mike Smith about how he won't try and go 25 and 50 for the opening quarters. Agree ! He will hope to go 26 and 52 Lolol.
All that stuff is gamesmanship from a smart old HOF veteran that knows 2 things. He is most likely not on the best horse but... he most likely is the fastest early. The opening two quarters will most likely have a big say in the outcome. He is not the best, but when the pace is altered, the best horse does not always win.
I think right or wrong, Pigpen has the right ideas in here. This race might not add up to who can out finish who but instead who can outsmart who early.

This has a chance to be a really fun race to watch.

**str** · 06-07-25, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

Gonna put a few $ WPon the 4- Uncaged (ML 30-1). Broke his maiden at SAR on a muddy track, 2 for 2 on wet track now. Not sure what they are going to rate the track tomorrow. At those odds, why not.

That is as good way as any to look at it Mr GandT. GL.

**JBEX** · 06-07-25, 10:02 AM

I think baeza can stay with rodriguez early (and he may have to) but I've found if 2 horses go head to head on the front and pace winds up say 5-8 lengths slow it hurts both of them .. maybe has to do with restraining them too much .. to me +/- 3 lengths is a better situation for the front runners in this scenario .. we'll see