ironmike's horse racing thread

[ironmike]

penn national 12-15-09

rc1 the 4 horse is the luke warm ml fav at 5-2. think we can beat him with the 6 horse. i really hope we get around 5-2 at post time.

if you look at the pps for the 4 i think you will get what you see. a good effort at this level but not good enough for a win. 3 horse is going to improve off his 72 beyer last out but neither 1 of these really excites me for a win ticket.

6 horse is a 1st timer who has been training well and has a pretty damn good jock on him. throw in that the sir hits with about 17% with his offspring helps out.

the 7 horse can be the wild card. 1st timer with a couple 7 fur. drills and a 8 fur. drill?! don't see that to often at least i don't.


for record keeping purposes playing these for $2
win ticket #6 $2=$2
exacta ticket 6/3-7=$4

[joeyp1222]

good luck with your first selection mike

[joeyp1222]

nice call

Penn National on Dec 15 2009
Race 1 6F Dirt
Purse: $34000.00 Fast Cloudy/45*
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
6 Dandy Waltz Joseph Rocco, Jr. 4.80 3.20 2.40
3 C V's Develen Thomas Clifton 3.00 2.10
4 Euro Ghost Luis A. Belmonte 2.20
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
Exacta 6/3 16.60
Trifecta 6/3/4 40.40

[ironmike]

thanks joey.

winner
win ticket $4.80 roi $2.00
exacta ticket $16.60 roi $12.60
not a killing but ahead

penn rc4
for record keeping playing these for $2
win/place ticket on the 10 horse=$4
exacta ticket 10/1-4 =$4

gl

[newathorseracing]

Penn National
ilike the #4 in race 4 i think its a winner

[ironmike]

the 4 is a player. reason i like the 10 is the class drop and imho is the only horse that can improve. loses 4lbs from last start . not crazy about the trainer win percentage on this type of layoff but at least he has a percentage.

best of luck to you and may the best horse win

[newathorseracing]

mike where do you find that information

[ironmike]

in the brisnet past performances. you can find a lot of free pps at http://mysite.verizon.net/whobet/trks2day.html.

i'm to cheap to pay for them anymore. that and it cuts into your winnings

[ironmike]

penn rc4 10 won paid $9.00 and $5.60 lost the exacta though. roi +6.60.

well at least i'm ahead

bol and catch you guys/gals later

[newathorseracing]

good job mike again where did you find this information

[newathorseracing]

sorry mike i see it now

[icsky3]

Nice

[jgiun1]

GL Mike.......good to see you posting over here.....if your doing anything with your SBR points, you can give them to little ole JG

[yahoonino]

whe need a person like you ,on the horse racing forum

[ironmike]

wed 12-16

not a killing yesterday but based on $2 wagers my roi is $22.

for record keeping all wagers are based on $2 wagers unless otherwise specified.

check back later i might have some more plays later.

tampa bay race 5

the 8 is the huge ml fav and is going to take a ton of money. 2nd start of carreer after running 2nd at mdn 46 (this race is mdn 20) so she is dropping in class. looks like she sits back way back in the field and then closes. stretching out to 1 1/16 andyou would think that the added distance with his late kick would be money in the bank but this is were a lot of handicappers get in trouble. the pace is slower in a 1 1/16 then a 1 so is she going to get the pace to run at? million dollar question especially in this race with so many 1st timers. looks like the 5 is the pace setter with the 6 horse sitting in a nice stalking position. i really hope 1 of the 1st timers presses the 5 if not i really don't think the 5 can go this distance.

i'm leaning towards the 6 horse. should be in a nice stalking position and is making a huge drop from mdn76 to this class level. showed early speed in that race which is the key and i like casse as a trainer.

playing the 6 win/place for $2=$4
exacta 6/1-4-8 for $2=$6
double in rc5 6/1-3-4-6-7-8-12 for $2=$14
total investment $24

best of luck

[Richkas]

The #8 Apple Charlotte runs by these like they're standing still. You either bet the #8 at the short price or you just watch.

[ironmike]

we will see. don't really see a fast enough pace for her. best of luck and may the best horse win

[Richkas]

Tampa Bay 4th race

#10 Peacephilly

[ironmike]

wow did i miss read that. the 6 decided to sit behind the 8 instead of infront of the 8

horrible just simply horrible

well hell.

rc6 playing a dd with 1-3-4-6-7-8-12/5 for $2 at tampa

actually i'm playing a pick3 in rc6 1-3-4-6-7-8-12/5/6 for $2=$14

scratch the double

[joeyp1222]

The #8 Apple Charlotte runs by these like they're standing still. You either bet the #8 at the short price or you just watch.

you got it richie same thought

[jgiun1]

Come on Mike...30 points for Christmas !!!!!! I'm a sick sick 3 card poker dude

[ironmike]

lol i cannot feed in to you habit juin.

the 8 got the jump and it seemed to me like he did not really pull away from the 6. the 8 did what a 1-9 horse should but watch out for the 6 next time out guys

[ironmike]

the 3is a scratch if you can throw in the 9 instead do that in rc 6

[ironmike]

well gave back and then some today. here are some for penn tonight wed. 16th

rc1 9/7-10
rc2 8/2-4
rc4 3/5-6

exactas woth the dd in rc1 and rc2

gl

[joeyp1222]

Good luck mike i also posted the 4th tonight

[rkelly110]

Good job, mikey, @ Penn'l. R-1 9 win $4 (whew), $17.40 ex, R-2 2 win $11.40, $42 ex, & dd $25.60.
Penn is my home track, you seem to do good with your picks there.

I bet the 9 wps, took my money and ran like hell! I use Bris ALL-ways, Win/insurance wager
system on the chalk. $3 win, $5 place & $12 show and the 9 fit my system.

So far I'm 9-0 +21 units. If I win or lose one race, I quit. I've been burned too many times
trying to chase my losses.

[ironmike]

hey rkelly i'm really not familer with that system. so you take a horse you like in a particular race (or is it just the ml fav or off odds fav?) and you double your bet ie 3 for a win 6 for a place 12 for a show?

i would think a few of the horse players around here would be interested in that system.


for anyone that is new to the ponies it is a marathon not a sprint and money management is essencial to make any profit at all at the end of the month. as with anything you are going to have your ups and downs and how you wager is very important. i just showed you what not to do. went from +22 roi to -8.6 roi (return on investment). i chased my money last night. i am a action junkie and trying to break that habit.

going to stick to the tracks i do well in. tampa not being 1 of them. penn/mountaineer/aqueduct/saratoga/del mar/belmont/churchill are probably my fav tracks with the big a my best track

i am looking at penn for tonight and thinking i found a gem.

fyi anyone that has any questions or any thoughts on any horses or types of wagers please by all means post. or if you just want to call me a dumba$$ or beg for my points feel free to post. i like feedback.

bol

[jgiun1]

Hey Mike, whats up with TCF ???? If not for Johns sticky stuff at the top, you could see clear through to Mon. Maybe getting rid of the top 2 posters that ever cared for the place has something to do with it. And maybe add the fact that he's a true sissy girl who likes to delete posts....maybe all of it.......

[ironmike]

i don't know juin. i think the holidays might have something to do with it. i still go there quite often but trying to branch out a bit.

penn rc1 thinking i have a longshot here in the 2 horse at 15-1 ml.

drops to a new low and back a distance she likes. last 2 races i believe you can throw out. last 1 was ran in the slop in a allowance race and the one before was a state bred stakes race which she showed early speed on a good surface. thinking the drop and cutback might do the trick here.

playing the 2 horse to win/place/show=$6 and a exacta 2/1-4 and a 4/1-2 exacta=$8

rc2 i am loving the 1 horse. ships in from the meadowlands and showed good speed at a higher class level

playing a win ticket on the 1 double my normal wager but for record keeping $4 and a daily double in rc1 and rc2 2-4/1 for $4 and a exacta 1/7-12 for $3=$6

TOTAL INVESTED $30

BOL

[rkelly110]

Mike, 5 min to post, I look at who's the favorite. I watch until 0 MTP, if he's still the undisputed
favorite, I bet $3 to win, $5 to place & $12 to show. 90% of the time that horse will win some
money. I don't use it every day because of my sports betting, but the last 9 times the favorite
won the race. +21 units. If I win or lose, I quit for the day.

My suggestion, if you want to chase, stay at the same track and only bet on the lone Favorite.
If there is more than one Fav, pass the race. Triple the money on each bet until you show a
profit. IE $9 win, $15 place, $36 show. You can see why I don't chase.

[rkelly110]

I found the All-Ways Win/insurance wager system in the All-ways newsletter they sent me.

Go to brisnet ( I don't know if you have to sign up to view the newsletter, it's free to sign
up anyway), click on Library, click on Index of all issues, and click on Oct 2009 #55.

The win/insurance wager system is in the Hedging your bets section, Hedging win wagers.

Great site for the horse player. Free software and newsletters.

[ironmike]

nice rkelly i will check it out for sure. thanks a bunch

well the 2 horse came in 2nd in rc1 last night missed the exacta.
rc2 the 1 had no chance after the fractions they were setting and wouldn't you know it my 2nd and 3rd selections blew right on by and paid a nice $40 exacta buttttttttttt i did not box them so . i really have a hard time boxing my picks anymore. probably should start to do a reverse exacta with my 1st and 2nd selection.

so my roi so far is -$26.60 based on $2 wagers or otherwise noted

1 play this morning at phily

rc3 pretty soft field here imho. alot of these filly and mares have tried this level and just can't seem to put it together. the 1-4-5 are the logical contenders. thinking of the 3 the 1 horse might have the best chance to have her picture taken. thinking the cut back in distance is going to help her. i'm slapping my hard earned money on the 3 though. think you can throw out her 1st race and chaulk it up to experience. she took plenty of money in her 1st race at a state bred mc40000 this is c12500 and her 2 bullet works before her debut is very promising.

so i'm playing

philly rc3

3 horse win/place for $2=$4
exacta 3/1-4-5 for $2=$6

total invested $10

might have some more for tonight

bol

[ironmike]

penn national

rc2 5
rc5 9
rc8 6

win/place gl

[ironmike]

sam houston rc6 #2 horse thunderpants win/place
los alamitos rc7 #3 horse turnagain taylor win/place with a 3-2 exacta

gl

[ironmike]

turfway
rc1 12
rc2 10
rc3 8
rc4 5

win/place with all except rc4 win ticket only. pick3 and pick 4 and doubles.

gl