Odds Boost v Money Back 2nd/3rd?

[Optional]

Math guys, how would you calculate this?


A horse I want to bet now at fixed odds for this weekend is 19-1

I can take an odds boost up to 23-1 or choose money back for 2nd/3rd.

The horse drew a bad barrier (18) in a 23 horse race or owner thinks he would be around 3rd or 4th favorite. So place is a respectable chance whilst win appears tough.


#12 in this race at 11.53pm ET Friday night if it matters. https://www.sportsbet.com.au/horse-r...race-4-6572638

[JBEX]

take a shot at this

100 race vacuum to make a profit @ 19-1 you'd have to hit it a minimum 6 times

so the 6 times you do you will be getting an extra $4
or $24

(144)


I'd say high end 20 other times of that 100 he'll come in the money but not win

so that would mean you'd be getting back an extra 20 on top of collecting 120 for the 6 wins


(140)


since we are estimating itm % I would say it's about the same either way

.

[JBEX]

take a shot at this

100 race vacuum to make a profit @ 19-1 you'd have to hit it a minimum 6 times

so the 6 times you do you will be getting an extra $4
or $24

(144)


I'd say high end 20 other times of that 100 he'll come in the money but not win

so that would mean you'd be getting back an extra 20 on top of collecting 120 for the 6 wins


(140)


since we are estimating itm % I would say it's about the same either way

.

I actually think slight edge taking the extra odds

[Optional]

Ah, that's a simpler solution than I was expecting.

Gut feel it was about the same too.

[JBEX]

Ah, that's a simpler solution than I was expecting.

Gut feel it was about the same too.

that's about as complex as I get lol..think it's in the ballpark of how to look at it

[str]

You have the numbers now so what is left is the horses form. Does this horse hit the board a lot?

Does the horse show speed and is this race top heavy with that? Or the opposite ?

Overall, does the horse definitely have the talent to finish top 3? Or is the is horse more the all or nothing type?

Factor that in and I think you have it Optional.

[Optional]

You have the numbers now so what is left is the horses form. Does this horse hit the board a lot?

Does the horse show speed and is this race top heavy with that? Or the opposite ?

Overall, does the horse definitely have the talent to finish top 3? Or is the is horse more the all or nothing type?

Factor that in and I think you have it Optional.

Brother is part owner of the horse so I will have a bet no matter what. I just couldn't think of how to assess the two offers. I took the money back option btw.


But the horse may be worth a look. He's not tipping it to win after the draw but was quietly confident it could win this prior to that.

The race has about 6 runners expected to set a fast pace he said. Which will help. It's a $1mil group 2 race btw.

The horse was set up for this race from the day they bought him at a yearling auction. He is the only runner who has won at this distance on the track too. Apparently that barrier draw is kind of a killer though.

Here is what the trainer had to say after Tuesday trackwork, before the barrier draw https://cdn.prism.horse/media/d714ec...adc4f06762.mp3

[str]

Brother is part owner of the horse so I will have a bet no matter what. I just couldn't think of how to assess the two offers. I took the money back option btw.


But the horse may be worth a look. He's not tipping it to win after the draw but was quietly confident it could win this prior to that.

The race has about 6 runners expected to set a fast pace he said. Which will help. It's a $1mil group 2 race btw.

The horse was set up for this race from the day they bought him at a yearling auction. He is the only runner who has won at this distance on the track too. Apparently that barrier draw is kind of a killer though.

Here is what the trainer had to say after Tuesday trackwork, before the barrier draw https://cdn.prism.horse/media/d714ec...adc4f06762.mp3

Had to laugh Opti. But no disrespect at all. Sounded like me when someone asked me if I liked my horse. My typical answer was something like," Well, if he breaks well and gets the position we want he can finish up well provided he gets some early pace to soften up the leaders.
He should fire well if things go his way."

It's what you say if you are a trainer. My guess, if he was like me, and sounds like that might be the case, is that is about as good a recommendation as you are going to get. He likes the horse going in as long as " if, can, provided and should" all kick in. Trainer speak 101. Great to hear. Brings back memories.


Let me know how he does if you can.

Thanks Opti. Good luck !

[Optional]

I'll report back Str

[Optional]

Settled last after jump but ate them up over last furlong to finish 5th.

Qualifies him for another million $ race in a couple of weeks time at least.

https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing/replays/tab-race-replays/race-player/thoroughbred/e%20fm/20220528/race/4

Widest barrier in blue/white hoops.

[str]

Settled last after jump but ate them up over last furlong to finish 5th.

Qualifies him for another million $ race in a couple of weeks time at least.

https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/racing/replays/tab-race-replays/race-player/thoroughbred/e%20fm/20220528/race/4

Widest barrier in blue/white hoops.

Opti

This horse ran really well . He was always in the bit, the rider always had horse, obviously lost a ton of ground, and leveled off really well through the lane.
I really liked what I saw there.
The trainer had this horse ready and his pre race analysis spoke to that.

There are 5ths and there are 5ths. This one was very solid IMO.

Trainer and horse deserve solid credit for a real nice effort.
Keep us posted Opti. You might want to chase this one next out.

All the best.

[Optional]

My brother is pleased by the run too.

Fingers crossed we get a better barrier draw next up.

He says they will set him up for a group 1 one mile race for the Australian Spring carnival (seriously big money races) in Aug/Nov if things keep going well.

[str]

My brother is pleased by the run too.

Fingers crossed we get a better barrier draw next up.

He says they will set him up for a group 1 one mile race for the Australian Spring carnival (seriously big money races) in Aug/Nov if things keep going well.

One day at a time but here's hoping.

[Optional]

I didn't realize that last race already qualified him for a Group 1 at one mile. It's on next Saturday. Same track.

https://www.racenet.com.au/group-one-races/j-j-atkins

Early fixed odds +1600 win or +400 first 3



Brother is making me want to buy into a syndicate too.

[Optional]

Well that sucks. Drew barrier 19 this time. One worse

[Optional]

Was trapped wide but looked to be having a great run after ranging up to about 5th at the home turn.

Looks like something went wrong when jockey called on him to go in the straight though. Slowed and tailed off to finish a long way last.

Have not spoken to my brother yet but hope it hasn't broken down. :\



Replay: https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/...0220611/race/7

[str]

Was trapped wide but looked to be having a great run after ranging up to about 5th at the home turn.

Looks like something went wrong when jockey called on him to go in the straight though. Slowed and tailed off to finish a long way last.

Have not spoken to my brother yet but hope it hasn't broken down. :\



Replay: https://www.racingqueensland.com.au/...0220611/race/7

Sorry to hear Opti.

Your horse was indeed running well and in as good a spot as that terrible post would allow rounding that turn and turning for home. It looked to me that your horse switched leads properly for the straightaway and then after a few strides, switched back to the lead that carried the horse around the turn. That is never a good sign. Then, I think you could see the horse switch back again nearing the wire.
Switching back and forth like that is typically a sign of discomfort. I hope not but pretty sure I could see that albeit difficult to be sure with all those horses. If there was something there that the rider felt , gathering the horse up and easing back was exactly the right thing to do.

Keep me posted and best of luck with any news from the trainer.

[Optional]

You read it exactly right Str.

Jockey said he was sweating up badly behind the gate and when he felt the horse wasn't quite right, exactly where you said, he just chose to ease him down.

Apparently horse looked fine afterward.

Off for a paddock spell now and will probably come back late this year.


Fingers crossed he gets better barrier luck next campaign!

[str]

You read it exactly right Str.

Jockey said he was sweating up badly behind the gate and when he felt the horse wasn't quite right, exactly where you said, he just chose to ease him down.

Apparently horse looked fine afterward.

Off for a paddock spell now and will probably come back late this year.


Fingers crossed he gets better barrier luck next campaign!

Well, that's the best news we could have heard based on what we saw.

That jockey really helped that horse out.

Hopefully he gets refreshed and comes back as good as ever.

It will be his turn to get some help on the post position as well. He's due for some luck there.

Sounds like that horse is in great hands both trainer and rider.

All the best Opti.

[Optional]

Green Shadows is coming back. Race is on about Midnight on Monday night ET

It's on Melbourne Cup day down here. Biggest race day in Australia each year.





Green Shadows has NOMINATED for the race 3YO & 4YO BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP at Royal Randwick on 01 Nov.
Please see below for full fields or click on the link to see the individual horse statistics and form.
Race 8 1300m - 3YO & 4YO BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP BM64

Of $125,000: 1st $58,000, 2nd $22,800, 3rd $11,900, 4th $6,425, 5th $4,750, 6th $4,000, 7th $3,500, 8th $3,500, 9th $3,500, 10th $3,500. Apprentices can claim

1	All Machiavellian	Robert & Luke Price
2	Amati	Chris Waller
3	Ausbred Flirt	Brad Widdup
4	Badge	James Cummings
5	Buillt	Chris Waller
6	California Surreal	Peter & Paul Snowden
7	Cloudland	Kris Lees
8	Cool Lad	Matthew Smith
9	Deep Snow	Angela Davies
10	Desi Girl	Brad Widdup
11	Do Well Legend	Chris Waller
12	Ellenmac	Matthew Smith
13	Fast Sagrado	Tommy Wong
14	Floating	Matthew Smith
15	Fuller	Chris Waller
16	Green Shadows	Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou
17	Hard To Dismiss	Scott Singleton
18	Hoover Lucy	Chris Waller
19	In De Summertime	Keith Dryden
20	Jamesonheart	Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
21	Kayobi	Sam Kavanagh
22	Lady Kah	Emma & Lucy Longmire
23	Manderboss	Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones
24	Marillier	Tracey Bartley
25	Operative	Chris Waller
26	Packer	Gregory Hickman
27	Razeta	Kris Lees
28	Robusto	Chris Waller
29	Saturn Star	Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
30	Sea Treasures	Bjorn Baker
31	Septime	Jean Dubois
32	Sherwood's One	Kerry Parker
33	Super Helpful	Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones
34	The Maxinator	Gary Portelli
35	This'llbetheone	John O'Shea
36	Ticket To Anywhere	Brett Robb
37	Verbek	Robert & Luke Price
38	Villeins	Ron Quinton
39	Vindication	Jarrod Austin
40	Vivid Flash	Chris Waller
41	Wrathful	Sam Kavanagh