Does Tiz The Law Open Above or Below Even?

**littlekona** · 08-31-20, 08:12 PM

I saw him last week at -300 heritage and -200 BOL...
Id say tote derby day 3/5 as long as hes not on rail...

Very enticing to lay him at -200 or higher

**Jowframs** · 08-31-20, 08:12 PM

Use

Major Fed
Storm the Court
NY Traffic

In the Exoctics

**Jowframs** · 08-31-20, 08:13 PM

I say 9/5 Morning Line

**littlekona** · 08-31-20, 08:19 PM

He will be the lowest priced favorite since big brown...now if this was first Saturday in May Baffert would have the luke warm co favs

**darrell74** · 08-31-20, 08:34 PM

He will be 1-9
Start capping who comes in second

**BigdaddyQH** · 09-01-20, 12:34 PM

He drew PP #17 and opened at 3/5. Honor AP drew #16 and is 5/1. Authentic drew #18 and is 8/1. Everyone else is 10/1 or higher. Only 18 horses bothered to enter. While the race is often run with less than a full field due to scratches, it has been quite a while since a full field has NOT been entered.

**BOA12** · 09-01-20, 01:07 PM

2nd choice 1 in 5 chance. 1/5 most likely.

**littlekona** · 09-01-20, 06:41 PM

best i have seen is -140 at BOL for Tiz to win some places as low as -185

**Jowframs** · 09-01-20, 08:30 PM

Wow...3/5....His only weakness
Sloppy Track.....he lost his only start

**Jowframs** · 09-01-20, 09:17 PM

Anyone playing the Oaks?

Gamine

Gets beat

**littlekona** · 09-01-20, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by Jowframs

Anyone playing the Oaks?

Gamine

Gets beat

Definitely a bet against IMO with a normal Oaks field in a normal year. Dont think she wants this distance and dont think she can pull away if looked in the eye at 1/8 pole...that said this is the worst oaks field after top 3 in my lifetime so wire job or stalk and crush very possible

**ericool007** · 09-01-20, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by Jowframs

Anyone playing the Oaks?

Gamine

Gets beat

I like swiss but its hard to be super confident going against a horse like gamine heres a little except from a so called expert, hank goldberg on my sportsline app.
5 Gamine (Even)
This horse is a freak. Guys who know the business tell me they've never seen anything like her. She's never had a horse in front of her in four career starts. She won the Acorn by almost 19 lengths. I think she could win the Derby on Saturday and beat any horse in the world right now the way she runs. People ask if she can go around two turns; I think she could go around four turns. No one's going to beat her.
1 Swiss Skydiver (8-5)
This is the second best horse in the race. She has won four of her last five races, and her only loss came in the Blue Grass Stakes to Art Collector, who would've been the second choice in the Kentucky Derby but had to withdraw from the race. She'll have to break well from the rail, but the biggest concern for her is the beast she faces in Gamine.

7 Shedaresthedevil (20-1)
This is my price horse. She has won her last two races by a combined 11 lengths. She's also undefeated in two starts at Churchill Downs and is the only filly in the race with more than one win on the track. She steps up in competition on Friday but is capable of running well. Trainer Brad Cox is another plus; he's winning at a 24 percent clip this year.
4 Speech (5-1)
She is coming off a win in the Ashland Stakes, and I would have her higher on this list. But this year she already has lost to Gamine, Swiss Skydiver and Donna Veloce--three fillies who will be in the starting gate on Friday. I don't see how she turns the tables on the top two.
Wagering strategy
Since I like the heavy favorite, there's no reason to get cute. The only way to make money on the Oaks is to play Gamine on top of others in trifectas and a superfecta.

**Jowframs** · 09-02-20, 08:26 AM

Going with Shedaresthedevil,Swiss Skydiver

**Jowframs** · 09-04-20, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by Jowframs

Going with Shedaresthedevil,Swiss Skydiver

Bang,bang

Shedaresthedevil($32.20)($8.40)($3.80)Swiss Skydiver($3.80)($2.60)

Exacta($59.40)

**homerbush** · 09-04-20, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by Jowframs

Bang,bang

Shedaresthedevil($32.20)($8.40)($3.80)Swiss Skydiver($3.80)($2.60)

Exacta($59.40)

I was about to hit the worst pick 4 ever but went all in this leg and it saved me.

**Jowframs** · 09-04-20, 11:18 PM

Nice!Homer

**littlekona** · 09-05-20, 09:21 AM

to me the chalk is vulnerable here for few reason\
1 NY Bred(Funny Side Trainer Tagg)
2 Lost over strip off track not the excuse
3 will have to be used more then ever out of gate and @ 1 1/4 may be to close to quick pace. remember the farther they go less the closing kick by stalking types

This to me feels like a giacomo type derby where one of these bombers moves up and trips out for win. which one I have no clue so I will spread or maybe just lay the chalk here.

**Jowframs** · 09-05-20, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

to me the chalk is vulnerable here for few reason\
1 NY Bred(Funny Side Trainer Tagg)
2 Lost over strip off track not the excuse
3 will have to be used more then ever out of gate and @ 1 1/4 may be to close to quick pace. remember the farther they go less the closing kick by stalking types

This to me feels like a giacomo type derby where one of these bombers moves up and trips out for win. which one I have no clue so I will spread or maybe just lay the chalk here.

???
Funny Cide Won Derby

**BOA12** · 09-05-20, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

to me the chalk is vulnerable here for few reason\
1 NY Bred(Funny Side Trainer Tagg)
2 Lost over strip off track not the excuse
3 will have to be used more then ever out of gate and @ 1 1/4 may be to close to quick pace. remember the farther they go less the closing kick by stalking types

This to me feels like a giacomo type derby where one of these bombers moves up and trips out for win. which one I have no clue so I will spread or maybe just lay the chalk here.

More important, is how Franco takes first turn.

**littlekona** · 09-05-20, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by BOA12

More important, is how Franco takes first turn.

ching ching #3 to close to pace @ 1 1/4

**BOA12** · 09-05-20, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

ching ching #3 to close to pace @ 1 1/4

Herculain Effort by Authentic

. My first Derby winner since Silver Charm. N.Y Bred win in N.Y. Ky. Bred win In Ky.

**littlekona** · 09-05-20, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by BOA12

Herculain Effort by Authentic

. My first Derby winner since Silver Charm.

haha name my avatar

**BOA12** · 09-05-20, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

haha name my avatar

Nice, kona. Class horse, class avatar

, class poster

.

**littlekona** · 09-05-20, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by BOA12

Nice, kona. Class horse, class avatar

, class poster

.

The other NY bred NY Traffic probably did Tiz The Law in keeping him wide and not able to relax every step of the first six furlongs....But i will tell you its the classic situation when a closing stalker type is to close and unable to relax at distance of ground the late kick is just not there

**BOA12** · 09-05-20, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by littlekona

The other NY bred NY Traffic probably did Tiz The Law in keeping him wide and not able to relax every step of the first six furlongs....But i will tell you its the classic situation when a closing stalker type is to close and unable to relax at distance of ground the late kick is just not there

Yes sir. Original pick was #6 on Wednesday when I capped card. Authentic, 2nd choice.

**littlekona** · 09-05-20, 08:06 PM

I think if you had any other top jock Tiz wins....watching replay franco waited for the slow breaking winner to rush and clear him all in while the other NY bred kept on and parked Tiz wide and uncomfortable first 6 to 7 furlongs..if he uses Tiz just a bit more hes in 2 path and less preasure and take a breath

**BOA12** · 09-06-20, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by littlekona

I think if you had any other top jock Tiz wins....watching replay franco waited for the slow breaking winner to rush and clear him all in while the other NY bred kept on and parked Tiz wide and uncomfortable first 6 to 7 furlongs..if he uses Tiz just a bit more hes in 2 path and less preasure and take a breath

Like a rookie QB in the Super Bowl.