Bad Favorites Thread ( Tracking )

[Louisvillekid1]

The ideal here is to identify horses that won’t win

In my opinion , it’s the biggest edge we have as handicappers

The Rules here will be

Applicable Tracks (Subject go Change)

Currently: Tampa / Oaklawn / Gulfstream

I will only grade horses that go off @ 2/1 or lower

These posts must be made before first race of the track

can’t track post times during the card

You will not be graded on horses that go off higher

Please don’t abuse my time , hoping they get bet



Overlapping Is fine

[Louisvillekid1]

As Always I’ll start

Thursday
Oaklawn R1
#1 Turnstone

[Louisvillekid1]

Even if your play doesn’t fit the criteria to be graded

this could be beneficial

[Louisvillekid1]

Early adaptation

They have to go off less than 5/2

so when I review the result chart

it’ll state less than 2.50

only way I accurately grade

if it reads 2.50 (5/2) not graded

[Louisvillekid1]

As Always I’ll start

Thursday
Oaklawn R1
#1 Turnstone

2nd @ 7/5 Favorite

Lkid1 1-0

[Louisvillekid1]

Oaklawn Friday

#8 Ragtime Blues (3/1)

But I'm betting closes under the 5/2 mark, to qualify

[Louisvillekid1]

Gulfstream r8

#3 Eve of War (9/5)

Pletcher is 11-117 with non maidens trying turf for the first time over last 5 years.

[Jellymancan]

Oaklawn R8

#10 Morning Snow (7-2)

[Louisvillekid1]

I agree Jelly

But I doubt goes off 5/2 or lower

[Jellymancan]

My bad forgot the rules. Is this thread, singles thread and best bet threads all need to be posted before the track you bet begins?

[Louisvillekid1]

It’s fine post anytime ,

Only matter in singles thread for multi race bets

[Jellymancan]

GP R5

#2 Tiger Blood

[mrginandtonic]

GP Race 6

2- Simple Story (ML 5-2 now 8-5)

Gonna take stand against one that just broke maiden.

- Hope it’s ok that I put my thoughts here

[Louisvillekid1]

MrT&T 1-0
Jelly 0-1
Lkid1 1-2

[Louisvillekid1]

Oaklawn R8

#10 Morning Snow (7-2)

Lmao Jelly

how much could we make on correcting morning lines?

It does really help in multi race bets for us

To identify those

I don’t want that job , but we spot on these all the time.

[Jellymancan]

I wouldn't want the job either, but so many are way off. This thread should help.

[Louisvillekid1]

New York guy David , is aces

I love when andy Serling and him bet lunch’s over the odds horses go off on.

Anthony stabile is a terrible handicapper , I can’t believe they kicking Larry Colmus to crub for this guy to call races

He just bets Rudy Rodriguez every race

He must have family connection To be in that position.

[Jellymancan]

I was disappointed to hear that Colmus was out. I don't know enough about the track announcers, handicappers etc. Still really learning, but I thought he did a good job.

[Louisvillekid1]

I was disappointed to hear that Colmus was out. I don't know enough about the track announcers, handicappers etc. Still really learning, but I thought he did a good job.

He’s the best , it’s terrible...

Hoping NY , changes their mind

[Jellymancan]

Gulfstream Park 4/25

R5- #8 Basquiat 2/1

[Louisvillekid1]

Gulfstream Park 4/25

R5- #8 Basquiat 2/1

Was just going to add this one, nice...

[StackinGreen]

Great thread, I love this angle, in a single race and in horizontals, it always is the key.

I'll be hanging around all 3 tracks today.

[Ventura]

Oaklawn Race10 - Bellafina will be 3/5 today. Can’t back her at those odds outside of California. She’ll find a way to run second against this bunch.

[Jellymancan]

Oaklawn Race10 - Bellafina will be 3/5 today. Can’t back her at those odds outside of California. She’ll find a way to run second against this bunch.

Agree, prefer Mia Michief---and maybe Classy Act as a longshot.

[Louisvillekid1]

Gulf r9

#3 Dr. Post (8/5)

[mrginandtonic]

OP Race 6

3- St. Joe Bay (ML 5-2), now 8-5 15min out.

Gonna go against him; I think this 8yr has lost a step.. Ran only twice last year; even his won one of the two; then he is on the shelf again for 1 year... Now he is gonna race for a tag. He has early speed but I think the 4-Firecrow will keep him honest. Expecting a fast pace and a pace melt down.

[mrginandtonic]

Oaklawn Race10 - Bellafina will be 3/5 today. Can’t back her at those odds outside of California. She’ll find a way to run second against this bunch.

Agree, prefer Mia Michief---and maybe Classy Act as a longshot.

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I agree for the most part; I just worry that may be she will just outclass them all.. This race is also DRF Race of the Day; and both of the professional picked her on top....

[Jellymancan]

OP Race 6

3- St. Joe Bay (ML 5-2), now 8-5 15min out.

Gonna go against him; I think this 8yr has lost a step.. Ran only twice last year; even his won one of the two; then he is on the shelf again for 1 year... Now he is gonna race for a tag. He has early speed but I think the 4-Firecrow will keep him honest. Expecting a fast pace and a pace melt down.

Good pick.

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah great call

[littlekona]

Gulf r9

#3 Dr. Post (8/5)

Damn! I thought for sure we had him beat turning for home

[Louisvillekid1]

Monster ride , monster horse

boy was I wrong

much much the best lol

[Jellymancan]

That horse looked huge chugging along there.

[Louisvillekid1]

Mr T&T 2-0
Ventura 1-0
Lkid1 1-3
Jelly 0-2

[Jellymancan]

GP R3

#6 Toonie Loonie

[Jellymancan]

GP R3

#6 Toonie Loonie

He won the race, another L for me.