No work for me right now so really spent a good amount of time looking at these races. I might, (strong might) do this again for Saturday, probably just post plays, but man I give props to guys who do this for a living each day because it took a long time! Anyways, these are just my thoughts for today. Will wait for scratches and adjustments and will post my plays for each race on here. Def will be doing a p5 and p6. Probably some w/p, we'll see.
Race 1
Contenders
#9- Weaver32% races this meet, 18% on turf, Bravo underrated won multiple on Sunday. Didn’t show much first time out at 50K, drop is questionable but now blinkers, 9 post bad stats (3/50 since November) lowest amount of wins turf races under 1 mile.
#11- Drops down again, will be on the lead, Diaz gets his first ride at GP, only one of the day. Good price, if he gets out of the gate well he has a chance to wire.
#10- Solid jockey, did well at 32k in Tampa but why so long of a break. Saffie 28% this year 18% on turf, but he’s been cold. Limited value.
#12- Dealt with a lot of trouble last race, Paco won 9 out of 20 races this past weekend, 4 on turf. 0 horses won a turf race 1 mile or less this year.
#6- Improving, Santiago ran well with him on 1/29 as a 28-1 shot and returns today from a better post. Worth a look.
Race 2
Contenders
#2- Drops down from 25k (4th), DD is familiar with this one and ran decent races, better post today. Better value than the next one.
#11- Drops down, decent performances on his first two on turf against stronger fields, Saffie ice cold factor in play.
#7- Dealt with trouble last race, Paco is on him so I’ll pay attention for good value.
#6- Pletcher 60k lasix but 16k field makes you wonder, Saez takes the mount. Pletcher and Brown always get bet down, but you’re a fool if you don’t at least take a look.
Race 3
Contenders
#3- Prado stays on, has done turf to dirt twice before (2nd-Prado and 3rd) will he out and front could have enough to go all the way.
#4- Vazquez (underrated at GP), fired a bullet on 3/7, 3rd off the layoff, Blew start last race with Meneses went very wide finished 4th coming on. Like the value here.
#2- Makes sense as he’s faced tougher, gets apprentice weight drop, but no value in this race.
Race 4
Contenders
#5- Trainer has won 5 out of last 9 races at GP, drops in class, training decent, good jockey
#9- Better post spot, jockey upgrade,improving, fits with these
#4- Makes sense, blinkers last time 2nd at longer distance, but no real value here and trust from me at this price.
#11- A lot of value here, blinkers added, sire has good turf pedigree. I never heard of the jockey but 20-1 why not?
#10- Fits with these, but ice cold trainer and jockey, 0-7 though
Race 5
Contenders
#9- 2-1 last time and had a bad trip, lost to Up in smoke who came back to win 3 weeks ago with Johnny V, takes a drop, Nicks has great stats, better jockey than last.
#7- Rosario on board, broke out well in first race, Kenneally good trainer usually has Johnny V or Jose Ortiz at GP, Rosario 8-3-2-0 w/ Eddie. Dangerous.
#1- Solid back in November in the slop in only start (1 next out winner) been off for a good amount of time, Saez on board and is 23-9-8-0 with Hough.
Race 6
Contenders
#7- Paco, stepping up today vs tougher, solid works last 3 out, next out winner from last race with improvement in speed.
#6-2nd last time at this level as is a very solid horse lost WWfitzy who ran stakes next out, Saez should sit a good trip if speed duel happens up front. Makes sense but little value.
#5- Fast, fast 8/24 at GP, cutting back to her best distance
#4-Been away for months, training well but only once in past 2 months, won off a layoff last year, good value here.
Race 7
Contenders
#2- Dropping down a little, Plesa (trainer) has good stats with this type of race today, Paco returns, definitely a great chance and probably my top pick for this one.
#8- Dropping in from Tampa, has been hot, Saez aboard should get a good trip, Sensible to me.
#5- First time turf, dam 18% on turf, 2 months off decent workout lately, longshot with value
Race 8
Contenders
#2- Speed up front, won his last 3 not in stakes, 7 year old runs well late and is consistent at this level, Vazquez gets back on 3-2-1-0,
#7- Rosario takes over for Ortiz, I bet this one last out and just couldn’t catch Vinnie van go, should get the best trip from his position.
#1- Probably the one to catch from inside post, 4-3-1-0 at this distance, average in workouts leading up since last race on 9/17, 2 for 2 off breaks so has a shot.
#4- Impressive las time out, two bullets since, hottest jockey at a price but going against much tougher
Race 9
Contenders
#4- Keeps improving, third time off layoff for first time ever, will be overlooked, stepped off slow last time and was far back
#5- Bet him under Pletcher twice before (2nd both), now moves to Saffie, Ran close to this distance twice at Belmont, won 2/8 at GP, makes sense but no value.
#6- I’m a big Maker fan, fired bullet 5 days ago, he will be ready, Paco rides 1st time
#10- Poor last time out against tougher, gonna draw a line through it and focus his two before that, Paco rode him well once, but teams up with Maker coming off a win, distance won’t be an issue and I like DD
#7- Rosario at 20-1 morning with trainer he rides most for, From France usually does 10f, stretching out, Intrigued by this one leave underneath.
Race 10
Contenders
#4- Back to turf, dropping from MSW, good workouts, Pletcher does well in these maidens, Saez aboard.
#5- Paco aboard, takes a drop, consistent at higher levels on the turf.
#7- Broke awful from 1 post first start still grinded out a 4th, Meneses instead of apprentice Torres, drops in class, I like his chances if the 4 is off his game.
#2- Lebron returns, almost wired field last time, should improve, better post than his 11 last time.
Race 1
Contenders
#9- Weaver32% races this meet, 18% on turf, Bravo underrated won multiple on Sunday. Didn’t show much first time out at 50K, drop is questionable but now blinkers, 9 post bad stats (3/50 since November) lowest amount of wins turf races under 1 mile.
#11- Drops down again, will be on the lead, Diaz gets his first ride at GP, only one of the day. Good price, if he gets out of the gate well he has a chance to wire.
#10- Solid jockey, did well at 32k in Tampa but why so long of a break. Saffie 28% this year 18% on turf, but he’s been cold. Limited value.
#12- Dealt with a lot of trouble last race, Paco won 9 out of 20 races this past weekend, 4 on turf. 0 horses won a turf race 1 mile or less this year.
#6- Improving, Santiago ran well with him on 1/29 as a 28-1 shot and returns today from a better post. Worth a look.
Race 2
Contenders
#2- Drops down from 25k (4th), DD is familiar with this one and ran decent races, better post today. Better value than the next one.
#11- Drops down, decent performances on his first two on turf against stronger fields, Saffie ice cold factor in play.
#7- Dealt with trouble last race, Paco is on him so I’ll pay attention for good value.
#6- Pletcher 60k lasix but 16k field makes you wonder, Saez takes the mount. Pletcher and Brown always get bet down, but you’re a fool if you don’t at least take a look.
Race 3
Contenders
#3- Prado stays on, has done turf to dirt twice before (2nd-Prado and 3rd) will he out and front could have enough to go all the way.
#4- Vazquez (underrated at GP), fired a bullet on 3/7, 3rd off the layoff, Blew start last race with Meneses went very wide finished 4th coming on. Like the value here.
#2- Makes sense as he’s faced tougher, gets apprentice weight drop, but no value in this race.
Race 4
Contenders
#5- Trainer has won 5 out of last 9 races at GP, drops in class, training decent, good jockey
#9- Better post spot, jockey upgrade,improving, fits with these
#4- Makes sense, blinkers last time 2nd at longer distance, but no real value here and trust from me at this price.
#11- A lot of value here, blinkers added, sire has good turf pedigree. I never heard of the jockey but 20-1 why not?
#10- Fits with these, but ice cold trainer and jockey, 0-7 though
Race 5
Contenders
#9- 2-1 last time and had a bad trip, lost to Up in smoke who came back to win 3 weeks ago with Johnny V, takes a drop, Nicks has great stats, better jockey than last.
#7- Rosario on board, broke out well in first race, Kenneally good trainer usually has Johnny V or Jose Ortiz at GP, Rosario 8-3-2-0 w/ Eddie. Dangerous.
#1- Solid back in November in the slop in only start (1 next out winner) been off for a good amount of time, Saez on board and is 23-9-8-0 with Hough.
Race 6
Contenders
#7- Paco, stepping up today vs tougher, solid works last 3 out, next out winner from last race with improvement in speed.
#6-2nd last time at this level as is a very solid horse lost WWfitzy who ran stakes next out, Saez should sit a good trip if speed duel happens up front. Makes sense but little value.
#5- Fast, fast 8/24 at GP, cutting back to her best distance
#4-Been away for months, training well but only once in past 2 months, won off a layoff last year, good value here.
Race 7
Contenders
#2- Dropping down a little, Plesa (trainer) has good stats with this type of race today, Paco returns, definitely a great chance and probably my top pick for this one.
#8- Dropping in from Tampa, has been hot, Saez aboard should get a good trip, Sensible to me.
#5- First time turf, dam 18% on turf, 2 months off decent workout lately, longshot with value
Race 8
Contenders
#2- Speed up front, won his last 3 not in stakes, 7 year old runs well late and is consistent at this level, Vazquez gets back on 3-2-1-0,
#7- Rosario takes over for Ortiz, I bet this one last out and just couldn’t catch Vinnie van go, should get the best trip from his position.
#1- Probably the one to catch from inside post, 4-3-1-0 at this distance, average in workouts leading up since last race on 9/17, 2 for 2 off breaks so has a shot.
#4- Impressive las time out, two bullets since, hottest jockey at a price but going against much tougher
Race 9
Contenders
#4- Keeps improving, third time off layoff for first time ever, will be overlooked, stepped off slow last time and was far back
#5- Bet him under Pletcher twice before (2nd both), now moves to Saffie, Ran close to this distance twice at Belmont, won 2/8 at GP, makes sense but no value.
#6- I’m a big Maker fan, fired bullet 5 days ago, he will be ready, Paco rides 1st time
#10- Poor last time out against tougher, gonna draw a line through it and focus his two before that, Paco rode him well once, but teams up with Maker coming off a win, distance won’t be an issue and I like DD
#7- Rosario at 20-1 morning with trainer he rides most for, From France usually does 10f, stretching out, Intrigued by this one leave underneath.
Race 10
Contenders
#4- Back to turf, dropping from MSW, good workouts, Pletcher does well in these maidens, Saez aboard.
#5- Paco aboard, takes a drop, consistent at higher levels on the turf.
#7- Broke awful from 1 post first start still grinded out a 4th, Meneses instead of apprentice Torres, drops in class, I like his chances if the 4 is off his game.
#2- Lebron returns, almost wired field last time, should improve, better post than his 11 last time.
