LKid1's Ponies

[Louisvillekid1]

Now that Im full time down here

With the Saratoga meet over Im making a new thread with tracking

90% going to be NYRA

The next day i'll be playing is Thursday @ Kentucky Downs

You'll see some short write ups with picks but only plays will be posted Official

I'll be betting real money of course on anything posted.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Gl kid.

[leetreaper]

Now that Im full time down here

With the Saratoga meet over Im making a new thread with tracking

90% going to be NYRA

The next day i'll be playing is Thursday @ Kentucky Downs

You'll see some short write ups with picks but only plays will be posted Official

I'll be betting real money of course on anything posted.

[Louisvillekid1]

Man just spent a good 2 hours on Thursday’ KD card

found a few things but damn handicapping impossible

[littlekona]

Man just spent a good 2 hours on Thursday’ KD card

found a few things but damn handicapping impossible

MY GOD! 14-16 horses each race!!!! Plus all the big boy Jocks in town!! Angle handicapping only thing I will do and PRAY!!!!!

[JBEX]

love capping it but 5 cards is enough (off the top I think that what it is anyway)

[Louisvillekid1]

Belmont Opening Day

Friday September 6th

Race 1

#6 RED ZINGER , In a race without much pace, I think Javy will send this one early coming outta 2 turf sprints in Saratoga. This 3 year old is 8 outta 10 in the money lifetime, 3 1-0-1 @ Belmont and 3 -1-1-0 @ this distance. Also has been keeping better company than most in here. Contessa has 2 2 in here and the other one who is a closer, makes me believe even more that Javy forwardly places this one early. Now besides the #3 HOKULEA (Contessa’s other) we have #5 SOUTHERN KING , this Pletcher will probably be the favorite here (just guessing as Morning line odds not out yet) does have some things to like. However why they worked this one on the turf monday entering a race going turf to dirt, give me some mixed feelings. Joel Rosario returns and looms a big threat. I don’t know how the #8 IRISH VALOR , gets in this Non winners of 2, with 7 victories, but but if Jose can’t win on this one, not sure Dylan Can. The only other speed potential comes from Englehart’s first off the claim, #7 DREAMZAPPER. Like Linda’s First off the claim #2 I LOVE JAXSON , they both are making huge moves up in class. Which is a positive in my book but leaning elsewhere.

Conclusion: Playing #6 RED ZINGER WP , ExX 5,6 , and using the 3,5,6 in the Early Pick 5

Race 2

, #2GOOD CREDENCE improved by leaps when going on the lawn @ Saratoga. Tony Margatta has strong #'s w/ 2nd time Lasix, & Johnny V Returns. However I really love the entry here , #1A STRONGERTHANYOUKNOW more and is my top choice. This filly was in all kinds of trouble when trying the lawn in 2nd career race and still ran 3rd vs stakes company. Duarte is great w/ these types and Lezcano takes over. The#1 SILKY BLUE. is a nice looking firster. Other Contenders (hopefully for 2nd) Nevin has 2 , #10 MOSIENKO & #11 MY SASSY SARAH, Contessa has one that Javy is riding #5 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS, along w/ Clement's firster #6 TALESIWINIT.

Conclusion: Singling the 1 , #1 to W , ExX 1 w/ 2,5,6,10,11

Race 3


#7 FIRST FOREVER, Seems like the clear speed in the field. Horse coming off 49 day layoff, but first break in this one’s career. First off the claim for Chris Englehart, and Jose Returns after being aboard this ones maiden win and next out vs winners victory. Likes Big Sandy (3 2-0-1) . Some negatives being entered @ same level and both wins came on an off track. Both Noda' entries look live, #2 MOONDANCE JOY & #4 RIOT WORTHY , #6 ARCHUMYBABY Is 2nd off the claim for Rudy and he's done great with those. Ran 2nd beaten by huge winner @ spa, Clearly biggest player to my top choice. #1 PASSPORTTOVICTORY has done well on the rail in the past, and fits here off the layoff for Jeremiah.

Conclusion: #7 WP , 6,7 w/ 6,7 w/ 1,2,3,4 Tri , Using the 6 and 7 in Pick 5,

Race 4


#3 NO NAY MAYBE , has been on the bench for over 3 months, but very impressive in debut , before losing footing. Johnny V returns. Ward does have another in here and plenty of young talent. Really think its a 2 horse race with Abreu's firster #9 NETTLETON, 20k Stud fee went for 320k and Joel is aboard.

Conclusion: using 3,9 in Pick 5, 3,9 w/ 3,9 w/ 1,2 TRI

Race 5


Wide open affair with a bunch of familiar foes, but i’ll take a shot in a different direction. #5 FORGOTTEN HERO, Filly coming off 3 month + layoff, who is trying the turf for only the second time. This one showed a lot in her 2 year old campaign winning a 150k stakes in 2nd career start. 3 year old campaign has been rather ugly, with lone bright spot coming @ Big A on the lawn. Put up a 78 and lead most of the way. Has shown some good works in the am and maybe getting back on the lawn off the break, could have this one finding some her 2 year old form scoring at a price. #13 PURRAGEOUS DYNA (AE) Delaware shipper Is very sneaky if can get it and very live, TOP CHOICE. Chad Brown’s #12 LOVELY LA LA & Brad Cox’s #7 FIRST APPEAL, both make sense, along w/ Servis' #6 HIGH JINGO

Conclusion: using the 5,6,7,12,13 in pick 5, 13 WP , Exx 13 w/ 5,6,7,12

Race 6


#6 CAIRO CUTIE , Todd Pletcher filly who’s running lines are really mucked up. Caught 3 sloppy tracks outta 6 starts. Last 2 on firm ground , showed speed before giving it up late vs slightly better. Jock Switch to SAEZ, tells me this one will be forwardly placed in a short field with not much speed. The Chad Brown #4 TRIAL AND ERROR, showed speed in last, but switching to Javy, I think this one will try and rate. Look for Luis to be aggressive early on the outside post, and get this one involved from the start. The beauty of this filly is I don’t think she will take much money , as it might not be that obvious to the public. And yeah Its PLetcher, but you got BROWN, SERVIS, SHUG, & TAGG in here also. Also I think its a tactical move using SAEZ instead of Johnny. Todd is 30% 90+ days away as well. #1 BLAHNIK is a long shot chance underneath, & #2 STAND FOR THE FLAG, also make sense.

Conclusion: #6 WP , ExX 6 w/ 1,2,4 ,

Race 7


#4 SAINT MOON, will take ‘em as long as she can. Saez for Navarro. Who is going to be extremely tough to catch, Without much other speed in here. The ones I think that will be coming late are the #1 PEACEFUL , #3 BROOKE MARIE, #7 TURF WAR. #6 COMEDY is my top choice. Dickinson is great with these and coming in from GRADE 1 class.

Conclusion: #6 WP, ExX 6 w/ 1,3,4,5

Race 8

Im sitting out

[Louisvillekid1]

No Official Plays until changes and Posted Official

[Easy-Rider 66]

I am going to use your capping against you LKID. Just joking. Probably will not read much of it as I want to beat you my own accord. Only will use the info if playing a Horse tourney game. Thx.

[Louisvillekid1]

I am going to use your capping against you LKID. Just joking. Probably will not read much of it as I want to beat you my own accord. Only will use the info if playing a Horse tourney game. Thx.

HAHA!!! that's great...

I really like my position on this card

[Louisvillekid1]

I have a really busy day so won't be betting KD.

I did cap it, and played some for fun in the contest.

Going to keep this thread NYRA and Track Daily

If everything stays looks like $130 in total invested tomorrow Expect somewhere around that figure daily ...

[Louisvillekid1]

Just saw the #13 Purrageous Dyna a (15/1 AE) that was my top
choice in the 5th tomorrow, ran today and won paying $6.40 @ Delaware

i wish I new that

[Louisvillekid1]

Belmont


Day 2


Saturday September 7th


Race 1


#2 CASH OFFER (3/5) , is loaded with speed but really doesn’t like to finish. 4 outta last 5 ran 2nd, and will take these as long as she can. However the #3 MOON HEIST (8/1) & #5 AQUARIVA (12/1) Both only hit a fast track once and showed plenty of speed in their own right. This is not good for the 3/5 Chalk. Look the #2 CASH OFFER is still good enough to beat this field, but I’ll be looking in a different direction, and hope for that speed duel. #1 GIRL OF TOSCONOVA (6/1) , has been on the bench for over 9 months, but broke her maiden here by 8 in debut, 2nd time out vs winners ran very well 2nd by less than a length to a next out winner. Charlie Baker put this one in a G2 race last out (3rd career race) just before Christmas, and something happened, lost by 46. Junior returns and if this one is ready, could stalk that hot pace , but the rail isn’t ideal. Mixed Feelings. #7 LEM ME HAVE IT (9/2) Manny Franco for Mr. Levine, Hasn’t shown much of late, but with a potential pace breakdown, could be a player late.


Conclusion, Pass


Race 2


These first 2 races really leave a lot to be desired. #5 CAPE COD DIVA (6/5), is your most likely winner, but zero chance I can back at this price when trying the dirt for the first time. The Horse I’d give a shot to for my money is the #3 KATHY’S CAUSE (12/1) She is 3 0-1-1 on a fast track, 2nd off the layoff , Lezcano for Ryerson. Actually moving up in class of a fourth place finish losing by 9. You gotta go 5 back to find a fast track race prior and that was in Feb @ Big A for M C 50 and showed speed finishing 2nd by a nose. This field really lacks early speed, the Favorite and the #6 BEANS N RICE, may show some early hoof, but I see a could chance Jose gets this one forwardly placed, and in position to atleast get a piece @ Double Digit Odds.


Conclusion: #3 WP , Tri 3,5 w/ 3,5 w/ 2,6,7,8


Race 3


Can’t get behind any of these.


Race 4


#4 MONTATHAM (8/1) Saez for Kiran , Been on the bench since may after debuting in the slop and showing nothing. You can excuse a 275k purchase for not liking that surface at first asking. Has some grass breeding and McLaughlin excels @ 2nd asking. Plummeting in class off the layoff isn’t encouraging, however. #5 LA HARA (5/2) , 343.5K purchase, Javy for Chad. Clearly a player. #7 ON A SPREE (7/2), Mr. McLaughlin’s other in here, has improved in each start. I think the longer the better for this one, and dropping into a class, which just might be perfect to break the maiden. Once 250k purchase is another who hasn’t been gated in a while, But Major Contender. Needs some pace to run at. (maybe he sends the other one, because there isn;’t much speed here) #6 BOLD GEM (9/2) , after being crushed by 20,31,27, & 18 on the dirt, they put this one on the lawn in last 2 and ran pretty well. #2 AZZEDINE (20/1) , I played last time @ 83/1 and ran like it after showing speed. However this is a field that really lacks speed. I think this one does get the front, and simply for that reason Im going to try and hit a triple , hoping this one can hold on for a piece. I also think we can beat the Chad Brown here which will even create more value in the triple. #3 CRYPTO GOLD (3/1) , Its Linda 2nd off the claim, dropping down under the original claim price after a 3rd last out on the jump up. Player, but tend to stay away from linda when dropping for the win money.


Conclusion: I’m going to use the #6 and both Kirans on top over Linda’s 2nd off the claim on the drop , the speed horse long shot, Chad’s Firster.


Tri 4,6 w/ 2,3,4,5,6,7 w/ 2,3,4,5,6,7


Race 5


#3 UNPRECEDENTED (6/1) I just went back and watched the replay of this ones debut after seeing running line vs American Butterfly. This one out broke American Butterfly and then hung almost the entire way, was 2nd mid stretch and you guys saw what American Butterfly did last time out running huge in the Hopeful. Who by the way Luis rode and now takes over for Tyler here. This 220k purchase could be primed for huge race @ second asking just a few weeks later, for Mr. Kimmel. #1 HEMLOCK (3/1) Deserving short price I suppose after showing speed in debut, Its mott and his top youth pilot Junior. Has been working well for being on the bench for 45 days, logical. #4 DEMOCRATIC VALUES (8/5), Another of these 475k purchases , (only 40k stud fee) Javy for Brown, this one looks much stronger than the one in the 4th. #6 SASAMORE MISCHIEF (10/1) 290k purchase (150k stud fee) Dylan for Mr. Hills, as you well know Into Mischief’s have been firing early and been working well for debut. #7 ALPHA SIXTY SIX (5/2) 400k Purchase (20k Stud fee) Johnny V for Pletcher. Another one with a really bright future.


Conclusion: what a monster race for the future of these 2 year olds. But it does make me think having them all run together and @ the 75k price. Im sure I’ll be running into monsters here, but I really like what I’ve seen from the #3 UNPRECEDENTED, and with these connections being overlooked in a field with everything I just wrote on, its going to create a ton of value, running against horses at first asking. Im willing bet we even get better than 6/1 which is plenty of value already imo.


#3 WP


Race 6


#1 TELETYPE (3/1) , going against winners for first time , 2nd off the claim for Rudy Rod. JAvy enticed, but looking in a different direction, #3 ODRAMARK (2/1), Shipper for Navarro, has speed but hasn’t been able to finish at the shorter distance and no goes 6 for the first time. #4 TAKE CHARGE TINA (10/1) , pure speed and another who has spit the bit. #6 PROPORTIONALITY (8/1) Manny for Ray Handal , is another pure speed who hasn’t been able in quite some time. So we agree that pace is plenty in here with horses who like to quit. Lets look at the potential benefactors , #7 TIPLE (5/1) First off the claim for Serpe and goes for the hat trick today. Can stalk the pace we spoke of , if can deal with class hike, could sit the trip. #5 DIXIE TWISTER (4/1) is in top notch form. Since being claimed for 20 by Mike Miceli, Dylan won twice @ 32 and was flying late in a spot like this just missing by 2 but finishing 6th. #2 PECAN PATTIE (6/1), is extremely interesting to me. They tried to get this horse on the grass @ 2nd asking after a year long layoff and ended up winning wire to wire on the dirt. So Gargan (trainer at the time) moved this one up to allowance ranks and cashed some checks before dropping in for the tag, in which Jeremiah was enticed. He immediately tried to get this one on the lawn @ this level but ran on the dirt anyway and finished 3rd. This one has done her best work when able to get in a rhythm, the only time see has a chance 2nd off the layoff put up a 91 beyer and did her best work (yes it was in the slop. But i see a similar pattern developing and think Mr. Englehart has this filly beautifly placed, and of course we get value because of never being on the lawn.


Conclusion: #2 WP


Tri 2,7 w/ 2,3,5,7 w/ 2,3,4,5,7


Race 7


#1 THE J Y (5/1) , Love Belmont 6 4-0-1, #4 HALLADAY (7/5) Johnny V for pletcher , pure speed, clear contender, but started to look like a potential nibbler. #2 MANGO M (6/1), Intrgues me, 7 3-1-1 @ Big Sandy and is reunited w/ Lezcano who was aboard for 2nd best beyer victory here to start the 4 year old campaign. #7 TIKHVIN FLEW (12/1) Has a ton of back class, was on the derby trail and gets back to preferred distance. Trying turf for the first time, but might wake this one up, I see Street Cry in the breeding , so the transition could make sense and take this 3 year old on a new path for rest of career, I’d include. #9 QUARKY (4/1) is another pure speed that struggles to finish and Luis will have to use some earlier to get that position.#8 AMERICAN RULE (30/1) is another trying the turf for the first time, but has some great speed #’s and don’t think should be 30/1.


Conclusion: This race is really tough man, Im going to Pletcher with 3 prices I think all can win, and depending on how much I like the rest of this sequence , I might return to this race w/ using 4 horses in Pick 5.


ExX 4 w/ 2,7,8


Race 8


You’ll gonna hear a lot of talk about #7 MARCONI (2/1), #8 ROCKETRY (5/2), & #1 YOUR TO BLAME (4/1). And for good reason, but man have they eaten up some money lately. Im going in a different direction with #4 REALM (6/1) Junior Alvarado for Barclay Tagg is coming in Fresh , being on the bench since July, This one just ran 4th (granted 10 lengths) to Preservationalist, Catholic Boy , and Pavel in the Suburban (beating Marconi and Rocketry) Before that just missed w/ Junior in the G2 Brooklyn @ this distance losing by a half running 3rd behind your outside chalks Marconi and Rocketry, but this one has some of its best work off the bench, put up a 101 when rested from Sept 18 to Mar 19, just missing in the skipaway to yes Marconi lol. Before that when rested Mar 18 to Jun 18, put up a 99 when just missing also. Junior does have a win in the alydar however. Point is your probably gonna get at least 6/1 on a horse who is right there w/ the 2/1 and 5/2 or less everytime. Also both Marconi and Rocketry;s last 2 races have been very poor form.


In the Brooklyn 1 length separated 5 horses, Including Marconi, Rocketry, Realm & Your to Blame.


Conclusion: #4 WP


Race 9


Great Field, but I think its a 2 horse race for the win money. #5 LOVE SO DEEP (9/2) , JPN bred ships over after just running in mid august, gotta love that, get the lasix and has to primed to run huge. Lots of jocks are here just run this, #1 EDISA (5/2) Clear contender. #8 ART OF ALMOST (5/1) has the best chance for the americans here, JAvy rides and this one could get the trip.


Pretty Confident that’s your Exacta and Trifecta


Conclusion: Ex 1,5 w/ 1,5,8 Tri 1,5 w/ 1,5,8 w/ 1,5,8


Race 10


Another great Field, I find it hard to believe #1 A THREAD OF BLUE (4/1) is going to be able to wire this last leg of the series like they did the last.#9 SPANISH MISSION is my clear top choice and I think a monster performance coming. Jamie Spencer could come in here and win both of these races.


Conclusion: Single #9 , Ex 9 w/ 1,3,8 … Tri 9 w/ 1,3,8 w/ 1,3,5,8


Race 11


Only playing if I play late pick 5


and 5 potential candidates 1,2,5,8,9

[Louisvillekid1]

Today starts new tracking NYRA thread

Let’s see how we can really do on this circuit long term

PUMPED

offical plays after changes

[darrell74]

Where do you get your pp forms?

[Louisvillekid1]

Pms are full

[Louisvillekid1]

Belmont Opener


Friday 9.6.19


Official Card


Race 1…


$0.50 Cent Pick 5


Race 1… 5,6
Race 2… 1
Race 3… 6,7
Race 4… 3,9
Race 5… 5,6,7,12 ($16)


$5 WP #6 Red Zinger ($10)


$2 Ex 5,6 w/ 2,5,6 ($8)


Race 2…


$10 W #1 Strongerthanuknow ($10)


$2 Ex 1 w/ 2,6,10,11 ($8)


$1 Ex 2,6,10,11 w/ 1 ($4)


Race 3…


$5 WP #7 First Forever ($10)


$1 Tri 6,7 w/ 6,7 w/ 1,2,3,4 ($8)


Race 4…


$1 Tri 3,9 w/ 3,9 w/ 2,6 ($4)


Race 5…


$1 ExX 5 w/ 6,7,12 ($6)


Race 6…


$5 WP #6 Cairo Cutie ($10)


$2 ExX 6 w/ 1,2,4 ($12)


Race 7…


$5 WP #6 Comedy ($10)


$2 ExX 6 w/ 1,3,4,5 ($16)


Total Investment $132

[Louisvillekid1]

Edit bad math

[Louisvillekid1]

Now it’s muddy?

Not it even raining

oh well bets are in

now I see

dammit

[Louisvillekid1]

Fukkin weather people man

entire card in jeopardy now

[Easy-Rider 66]

LIke those muddy tracks KId. I guess you do not? Yeah scratches off lawn suck but like capping the slop.

[Easy-Rider 66]

But not playing BEL today. Between Hart, Jbex, and you enough action.

[Louisvillekid1]

I’ll have to edit throughout day race to race

race 1 is on

[Louisvillekid1]

LIke those muddy tracks KId. I guess you do not? Yeah scratches off lawn suck but like capping the slop.

No me too

but just thought my work was done lol

[Easy-Rider 66]

No me too

but just thought my work was done lol

Yeah get the drift. Maybe you find that steed that loves the mud GL.

[Louisvillekid1]

Have to cancel pick 5

looks like 2 and 5 off

[Louisvillekid1]

Pissed off now

[Louisvillekid1]

Cancel the entire card after r1

First race is already in and will grade

I have to re cap everything

and go to teller to cancel all these tickets

will post any plays

[Easy-Rider 66]

Cancel the entire card after r1

First race is already in and will grade

I have to re cap everything

and go to teller to cancel all these tickets

will post any plays

what about contest. you want to cancel all the remaining plays?

[Louisvillekid1]

Edit another scratch

NYRA . Com killing me

[Louisvillekid1]

Edit i

[Louisvillekid1]

$1 Tri


2,3 w/ 2,3,7,12,13 w/ 2,3,6,7,9,12,13


Belmont race 2


($40)

offical

[Louisvillekid1]

I’m going for a big score this race

think I have the winner in those 2

and then could be huge odds

[Louisvillekid1]

$10 wp #3

[Louisvillekid1]

This what happens in bad weather

take risks

$60 on the race