SPA Wednesday 7/23

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 2

78k Maiden going 7/8ths

The top part of the inside entry for West Point Caught my eye right off the bat. Abreu is hitting 27% w/ firsters and gets Joel in the reins. Horse has been working well ( every 7-10 days and a couple bullets in there) for the debut and Abreu does great w/ the 3YO debut's. No way this horse goes off 8/1 imo. #1 Freaky Styley

I think we will get value because I'll be looking to beat Chad Brown/Javy in this one. I realize the tomlinson # is there in debut and horses tend to back big improvements in the 2nd outing, but this is a spot where Im hoping they get overbet and we go a different direction. I'll will include in the early pick 5 as I'm using 3 here, but only because I have 3 single in this early horizontal. #9 Golani Brigade

Obviously this is the type of race you'll want to watch the tote board for your straight wagers and vertical plays.

The third horse im using is the #5 The Honest Toun. This one was picking up the pieces late in the debut @ 20/1 and Donk can improve his stock on 2nd try. Irad picks up the mount from Older Bro here, and should be able to at least get a taste although 7/2 is way short for me to have a win ticket on this one.

RAce 2 Conclusion:

#1 Freaky Styley to win at anything better than 5/1

If I was Risking more on this card, I'd even take a chance keying the #1 over the 5/9 in an Exacta , if the 9 does bounce like I expect, a 1-5 would be a pretty start to the day 5-10x...

Using 1,5,9 in Pick 5

Think we beat the favorite here in the opener (minus the hurdle race) and Joel Rosario could start off the Pick 5 with a nice price.

[leetreaper]

Espn top handicapper is back

[Easy-Rider 66]

Nice write up LKID. Good to see you posting your takes here in horse forum. GL.

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 3

Another 78K MSPW

This race is wide open, and zero chance im taking a short price...

But Im not going to invest a bunch of money this early pick 5 either...

Going with a simple hunch play #5 More than Silver (10/1) Thinking Rajiv has a shot of breaking the ice here and picking up his first win of the meet. Ive seen this breeding do well on the grass many a time. Danny Gargan's / Kendrick C favorite is gonna be waaay to short for me here, so going for a price. No Straight Action here.

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 4

98k AOC

After 2 Price plays here's a spot where Im backing Chad Brown/Javy 4/5 Favorite as another single... Comes off the pine fresh after 47 days, and love the added distance for this affair Horse flys late and has a nose for the wire. This lightly raced 6 year old is 6/6 in the money and has a grade 1 win. Last time at the spa was 1/16 and yeah it was 2016 but just missed and the freshness added w/ this ones late kick, plus the 4 time eclipse winner in the pilot seat, and is deserving of 4/5. Even this one's worst finish (3rd) was only beaten by a length. #2 Annals of Time

Another single here and will try to find second to cash a ticket here as well..

Playing an Exacta 2 w/ 5,9

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 5

50k Claiming

#4 Dr. Hipp Im singling. Listed as second choice 4/1 ML but doubt we get that #. Jose Rode this one to a wire to wire when last out (MAY 31) by 9. Yes that was a drop from 50 to 25 but there a ton of question marks in this field. And anything close to that performance gets across the line first. This is a 225k purchase who started out in Mr. Brown's barn. They have not been able to figure this one out. They put him on the grass in april which obv was a setup to get this horse that easy wire to wire on the drop. Build the confidence back up. So just put a line through that on your PP's and I see no reason why this one can't repeat. Especially since they shortening him up from 1 1/16 to 7/8ths.

Perfect spotting here by DD imo off the bench. $10 a ticket would be a steal.

Not to mention the place in the last that he smoked by 9, was a next out winner...

Singling in the pick 5 and playing to win at anything better 5/2


Also Going to play an Exacta 4 w/ 3,7

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 6

90k MSPW

In this Turf Sprint I look for an Ortiz Brother Exacta. The #10 Chimey Rock was decent in the debut, They obv wanted this one of the grass but allowed to run in the sloop. Horse is bred for the grass, gets the eye cups on, and Jose sticks around. Another one I doubt we get 6/1 for but that would be lovely.

However I am going 2 deep to hopefully close out the pick 5 and using the #7 Alfie Sommons with lil bro Irad aboard for Mr. Ward. Working sharply, Wesley, well you know how good he is with firsters and excellent grass breeding. 3/1 on the ML

The #1 Horse poses a threat, but Mr. Contessa has been struggling along w/ Manny Franco (who i think is one of the best in the world). @ 2/1 Im Hoping this one bounces. A sophomore slump 2nd time out if you will.

Then you see a ton of unknowns with prices...

So the way Im playing this race besides using the 7 & 10 in the Pick 5, is a Trifecta.

Im going to play 7,10 w/ 7,10 w/ all

If im right about the Ortiz Exacta , and the rail horse bounce, everyone else is price for 3rd and I see a nice opportunity to score a triple here...

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 7

Going a mile on the inner 150k Stakes race and start of late pick 4

This one is wide open, In Brad Cox we trust. Javy gets the nod on #8 Six Percent (9/2)

I really don't see this race clearly at all, if anyone has thoughts please share (well please share on any race of course) But this one is really tough.

Im simply going 3 deep

3,6,8

Using
#3 Rinaldi , Luis Saez for Mr. Bond 7/2
#6 Honorable Hero Manny Franco for JT JR, look at 20/1 this one intrigues me. Last out (first off the claim horse lead all the way around before giving way late and finishing 5th beaten by 3. That was @ a mile and one sixteenths. Who knows on the shortening if this one can't get out front 2nd off the claim, same rider and keeping one the cups. Its obv the plan to try and steal this stakes affair and speed is always dangerous , worth the extra include on the Horizontal ticket.
#8 Six Percent

[Louisvillekid1]

RAce 8

$200k Honorable Miss

Its a 6 horse field which can go many different ways.

ALL these horses are familiar with the wire, but I'll take a shot singling Johnny V on the outside post. Horse won 6 in a row and 8 outta last 10. (the 2 losses where on turf so won last 8 on dirt) At least thats as far as my form goes back lol. Doesn't matter which track this horse shows up.. #6 Ours to Run is the 7/2 third choice on the ML. I back this one and try to beat the 4/5 and keep the Pick 4 rolling cheap with a single.

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 9

Im getting tired of writing lol,

Im hoping Johnny V goes b2b in the 8th and 9th aboard #8 Violent Times (8/1)

the #4 Really Proud is a great place wager here but Im staying cheap today, although if this one goes off 7/2 + its worth it imo. I don't think Irad gets the win here, but def in the money pretty strong opinion.

Jose Lezcano is going to be on the favorite I predict in the #6

So I simply using the 6 and 8 in pick 4...

And took a shot a small tri in case im right

8 w/ 4 w/ all

That's how im playing the #4 to place , just a feeling on cheap vertical.

[Louisvillekid1]

Race 10

In the finale I played some prices and went 3 deep

1,3,6 to close out Pick 4

[Louisvillekid1]

ALL races are capping for Fast Track / Firm Turf Of course and im sure some scratches but here's my card.


Wednesday July 24th


Saratoga Race 2


Pick 5
Race 2… 1,5,9
Race 3… 5
Race 4… 2
Race 5… 4
Race 6… 7,10
-------
Race 4…Ex 2 w/ 5,9
Race 5… Ex 4 w/ 3,7
Race 6…Tri 7,10 w/ 7,10 w/ all
Race 9… Tri 8 w/ 4 w/ all
--------
Pick 4
Race 7… 3,6,8
RAce 8… 6
RAce 9… 6,8
RAce 10… 1,3,6
-----

Race 2... #1 to win @ 5/1 or better
Race 5... #4 to win @ 5/2 or better

[Louisvillekid1]

And my bad its 7/24

[Easy-Rider 66]

Alright Lkid. Appreciate the writeups. Will be giving your plays a look. GL. Good chance will be playing them.

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks for sharing your write ups and plays, LKid. Much appreciated.

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks for sharing your write ups and plays, LKid. Much appreciated.

Anytime

Let’s make some $ today

[Easy-Rider 66]

Word on the street LKID is races 3/6 off the turf. Rcae 3 at 7 panels and race 6 5.5 panels. Does this change your opinion? . Using your picks in a Derby Wars game. THx.

[Easy-Rider 66]

1	9	Sportswear (GB)	Early--Stake
	10	Belisarius (IRE)	Early--Steward
3	1 (poe)	Apollo's Abraxas	Early--Off the Turf
	3	Classical Rose	Early--Veterinarian
	6	Let It Slide	Early--Off the Turf
4	1 (poe)	Control Group	Early--Main Track Only
	4	Tour de Force	Early--Main Track Only
	6	Lenstar	Early--Main Track Only
	7	Turco Bravo (CHI)	Early--Main Track Only
5	5	Passcode	Early--Veterinarian
6	1A	Proven Strategies	Early--Off the Turf
	2	More Like It	Early--Off the Turf
	4	Get Set	Early--Off the Turf
	7	Alfie Solomons	Early--Off the Turf
	10	Chimney Rock	Early--Off the Turf
7	1	Dark Money	Early--Steward
	5	Blindwillie McTell	Early--Stake
9	3	Leah's Dream	Early--Main Track Only
10	1 (poe)	No Deal	Early--Part of Entry
	4	Diamond Crazy	Early--Steward
	9	Surging Tide	Early--Veterinarian
	13	Well Hello	Early--Steward

[Louisvillekid1]

If race 3 if off , I’m still playing the #5

In the 6th you have to include the # 11 hemlock (MTO)

junior and mott are on a tear

them 2 & Santana /asmussen

are on straight fire

that later just teamed up to win the prince whales

[Easy-Rider 66]

If race 3 if off , I’m still playing the #5

In the 6th you have to include the # 11 hemlock (MTO)

junior and mott are on a tear

them 2 & Santana /asmussen

are on straight fire

that later just teamed up to win the prince whales

OK LKID. Thx for the update.

[Louisvillekid1]

My tri in the 6th is moot if they 11 runs and off turf

[Easy-Rider 66]

I am in LIKD. Contest is racea 1-7. Lockdown no changing picks once race 1 gate opens. 7/1/5/2/4/11/8 See what happens. GL.

[Louisvillekid1]

11 becomes a single In 6th

no vertical play

[Louisvillekid1]

I am in LIKD. Contest is racea 1-7. Lockdown no changing picks once race 1 gate opens. 7/1/5/2/4/11/8 See what happens. GL.

Let’s get it!

[Louisvillekid1]

Small fun ex box 2,7 in hurdle race

[Easy-Rider 66]

Small fun ex box 2,7 in hurdle race

Yeah went with David Aragona's pick from NYRA race 1. also on the 7.

[Louisvillekid1]

9-1 we advance

if at track woulda had nice exacta

1 got moving late for clear 2nd

bad break also

liked our action tho ...

4/1 to 9/5 in gate on the 9

[Easy-Rider 66]

Alright LKID> Fast closing 2nd for the #1 R2.

[Louisvillekid1]

Yeah 8/1 surprised went off that high

[Louisvillekid1]

$5 ex gets you $110 back

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yeah 8/1 surprised went off that high

Yeah. Let''s get this #5 home R3

[Louisvillekid1]

Try paid 220 for 2, with that 9/5 on top and brown’s other getting third

nice payout


bettors def overlooked the #1

[Louisvillekid1]

Never a factor

shoulda came off the long shot after surface switch


great ride by manny

[Louisvillekid1]

31/1 last to first

derby horse in 2015

first time fir a tag

zito breaks ice

and I only use underneath





I dont box 4,7,10

dammit!!!!!

31/1 over 10/1

and don’t have it

unreal

good capping

terrible wagering

[Louisvillekid1]

Kicking myself