Distaff
*The scratch of Untapable didn’t change this much for me, the pace setup should be the same, I originally had Untapable 3rd, but I would likely have played Chatterbox at a better price anyway.
Got Lucky- The scratch of Untapable helps here a little as Got Lucky will get to start a few feet closer to the rail. A nice win last time out against a high quality field in the Spinster here at Keeneland over the same surface. The idea that we could get 6-1 on a horse that has already beat a number of horses in this field is quite impressive. I love the workout cycle heading into this race and the pace should set up for a horse coming off the rear. Got Lucky has the highest HBD Late Pace figure of 28.0 and should have the advantage coming home.
Wedding Toast- Pace makes the race, and if the pace isn’t quick enough to give
Got Lucky a shot coming from near the rear of the field, then Wedding Toast should be right there in the mix coming home. Coming off three straight wins, the last two were from the front of the field. If she can rate just off the pace of My Sweet Addiction who drew just to her inside, she will likely be on the lead as they hit the stretch.
I’m A Chatterbox- I am a little worried that being in the 1 hole, the connections will jump out and become part of the pace, but if she can find a soft spot and get a good trip she may have the best shot at running the shortest distance. She isn’t the best horse in this field, but if she can save a few lengths of ground she could be right there. It would take a big jump in speed figures, but sometimes you just need the right setup to grab the lead and see what happens.
Sheer Drama- I hate the post position WAY on the outside with a short run into the first turn. And this is a horse that has always run better from near the front of the field. The connections are going to have to choose to either drop back or run wide on the first turn and both could kill her chances. I won’t be playing her at less than 6-1 which I likely won’t get, but this could be the most talented horse in the field. But the post just kills her here. If she can somehow find a good trip here, she could win going away.
*The scratch of Untapable didn’t change this much for me, the pace setup should be the same, I originally had Untapable 3rd, but I would likely have played Chatterbox at a better price anyway.
Got Lucky- The scratch of Untapable helps here a little as Got Lucky will get to start a few feet closer to the rail. A nice win last time out against a high quality field in the Spinster here at Keeneland over the same surface. The idea that we could get 6-1 on a horse that has already beat a number of horses in this field is quite impressive. I love the workout cycle heading into this race and the pace should set up for a horse coming off the rear. Got Lucky has the highest HBD Late Pace figure of 28.0 and should have the advantage coming home.
Wedding Toast- Pace makes the race, and if the pace isn’t quick enough to give
Got Lucky a shot coming from near the rear of the field, then Wedding Toast should be right there in the mix coming home. Coming off three straight wins, the last two were from the front of the field. If she can rate just off the pace of My Sweet Addiction who drew just to her inside, she will likely be on the lead as they hit the stretch.
I’m A Chatterbox- I am a little worried that being in the 1 hole, the connections will jump out and become part of the pace, but if she can find a soft spot and get a good trip she may have the best shot at running the shortest distance. She isn’t the best horse in this field, but if she can save a few lengths of ground she could be right there. It would take a big jump in speed figures, but sometimes you just need the right setup to grab the lead and see what happens.
Sheer Drama- I hate the post position WAY on the outside with a short run into the first turn. And this is a horse that has always run better from near the front of the field. The connections are going to have to choose to either drop back or run wide on the first turn and both could kill her chances. I won’t be playing her at less than 6-1 which I likely won’t get, but this could be the most talented horse in the field. But the post just kills her here. If she can somehow find a good trip here, she could win going away.
