PLACE BETTING hot picks

**Jaarel** · 03-25-09, 04:34 PM

That sounds about right at this stage. Ill have more time to have a good read in a day or two but for the meantime it seems to be in track.

With these filters it will certainly filter out a great deal of chances each day for potential horses. We could adjust the filters to allow for other picks but we may not be as successful in the strike rate of it.

Im thinking that this is probably going to rely on those who have the time to look at the horses, conditions, jockeys etc and be able to screen them and then add the picks here to this forum.

This could work very well if we get a few picks from each country actually.

Lets see what happens.

**Jaarel** · 03-25-09, 04:39 PM

Time and the willingness to be patient are going to be the key factors for this one. Im thinking the last filter to apply should be the number of horses in the race. For example, we could find the right horse but it may be a 15 horse race instead of say 9 and therefore we would scratch that race immediately however i dont think that would be wise, due to the fact that we could check 30 minutes before the game and see that 4 horses have been scratched and therefore the race is close to being a play then.

We should get a consensus from all about how we want to play it. As the document says, we could play with a bit less strict filters and have many more chances and plays for the day, but the sacrifice could be less winners too.

**jellobiafra** · 03-25-09, 04:49 PM

posted this in the NBA thread but will copy here:

I've played around a little with the horses but I'm having trouble with it. I can generally find a couple horses that qualify as "hot favorites" every day. The problem is by the time they are in the gate, they are such heavy favorites that you can't get the dividend you need. Today I got frustrated with tiny payouts on a $5 bet, so I played two in a row at $20 each to show. According to his system, you should be getting like .5 to 1 on a show bet with these horses. I won $2 and $1 respectively on these two $20 bets. Both horses ran away with the race but I didn't bet the win, because if your horse places 2nd, your show wager is only going to cover like 1/10th of your win wager that you lose! I've been burned splitting the bet like he says you can do when my horse places or shows and I lose 4/5 of my bet.

I just don't understand how you can get a horse that's such a favorite as to be a 90+% to show that'll run at odds that you need to make money in his system. He says (paraphrasing) you want a horse that's around a 7/5 to a 5/2 while the next best horse is a 7/2 to a 9/2. Well the rare times you can get that opportunity, the show pool is sooooo heavy in the favorites column that your payout isn't worth the risk. He talks about starting with $5 bets. Can't tell you how many $5 bets I've made with a $.50 payout. Woo hoo. Now I'm supposed to bet $5.50? Yawn. By the time I get to a $10 bet I'm going to have a horse fade down the stretch or get blocked or just not show. I don't know how he gets $.50 on the dollar for these "hot favorites". I just can't see it.

**therber2** · 03-25-09, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

posted this in the NBA thread but will copy here:

I've played around a little with the horses but I'm having trouble with it. I can generally find a couple horses that qualify as "hot favorites" every day. The problem is by the time they are in the gate, they are such heavy favorites that you can't get the dividend you need. Today I got frustrated with tiny payouts on a $5 bet, so I played two in a row at $20 each to show. According to his system, you should be getting like .5 to 1 on a show bet with these horses. I won $2 and $1 respectively on these two $20 bets. Both horses ran away with the race but I didn't bet the win, because if your horse places 2nd, your show wager is only going to cover like 1/10th of your win wager that you lose! I've been burned splitting the bet like he says you can do when my horse places or shows and I lose 4/5 of my bet.

I just don't understand how you can get a horse that's such a favorite as to be a 90+% to show that'll run at odds that you need to make money in his system. He says (paraphrasing) you want a horse that's around a 7/5 to a 5/2 while the next best horse is a 7/2 to a 9/2. Well the rare times you can get that opportunity, the show pool is sooooo heavy in the favorites column that your payout isn't worth the risk. He talks about starting with $5 bets. Can't tell you how many $5 bets I've made with a $.50 payout. Woo hoo. Now I'm supposed to bet $5.50? Yawn. By the time I get to a $10 bet I'm going to have a horse fade down the stretch or get blocked or just not show. I don't know how he gets $.50 on the dollar for these "hot favorites". I just can't see it.

Yes 1.8 dividend or so is incredibly small which is why, the filters need to be strong, and like I said no matter how good a trend looks I wouldn't recommend doubling place bets for now at least. As far as I can see the way to get ahead with horse betting is hitting the big stuff so doubling place bets or doing what johnnyp does: researching and trying to consistantly nail the big plays is the way to do it.

So, I am trying to find the best places to get the info. JohnnyP, if you read this maybe you could offer us some advice. The biggest problem I am having right now paper testing this is finding the horse that fits into these filters. Being at the track is one things, but delayed information over the internet kills. I will be working on this.

**jellobiafra** · 03-25-09, 06:53 PM

Try youbet.com That''s where I've been "handicapping" and watching the races. They offer a 60 day free trial membership. The site is fantastic. The have all the tracks and upcoming races. They have links in the horse window to previous results and if it's available video replay of all those races. Like I said - it's a great site and very easy to use. I can find everything for these filters except the jockey rankings. So I haven't been using that one. But I can see what the horses open at; their post position which is just their # in America; what they did last race and when and where and even WATCH it if it's available; running odds on the tote updated in real time; scratches.... everything. It has two live video feeds that you can have up at the same time. Basically affords you the luxury of an OTB in your living room. I only wish I was any good at picking these damn animals because I'm absolutely hooked on the site. It's like $11 a month after the free 60 days run out and I'm really hoping I can get to where I'm making money now and then before that time arrives, because I really want to become a subscriber. You can also wager there, btw. One warning - the video replay feature is capped at a small amount on the free trial. I didn't realize that and went wild the 1st night handicapping the next day's horses .... I was out of replays by the next day.

**jellobiafra** · 03-25-09, 07:00 PM

Just to add the the above...

If you do sign up on you bet, just go through all the tracks for the next day and it lists the lineups for each race. This is really user friendly. You'll pick it up in minutes. But if you look to the left of the each horse's name there is a "play" icon. Click that and it brings up the replay list for that horse. You don't have to play the video, there is button for program and for play. If you click program it shows you the field for that race and scrolling down you see the results. Awesome, awsome site.

**therber2** · 03-25-09, 09:55 PM

March 25, 2009 Place results

jello. some information would be good. I'm glad you have a source.

Okay so I tracked some things that happened today and I am going to record the results here:

Total Place winners odds tally:
out of 26 races

4/5 (1 placers)
9/5 (2 placers)
2/1 (3 placers)
3/1 (6 placers)
5/2 (6 placers)
4/1 (3 placers)
9/2 (3 placers)
5/1 (7 placers)
6/1 (5 placers)
8/1 (4 placers)
10/1 (5 placers)
12/1 (3 placers)
15/1 (2 placers)
20/1 (1 placers)
30/1 (1 placers)

Alright, I could go on. but this at least proves for the most part that without any filters at all horses with high odds come off on top, but it is definitely quite mixed.

If anyone is up to it, they could take a look at races where the 30/1's won the race. The anomalies. See what the conditions were for those races; then we'll at least be headed in the right direction for our filters.

**mcbain** · 03-25-09, 10:36 PM

I read the horse racing system Jaarel sent out, and just a couple of things from someone that has bet horses for more than 20 years:

1. When he says 'place' in the system, it translates to 'show' in North America. He is advocating finding extremely heavy or "hot" favorites and betting them to show, which means they can finish 1st 2nd or 3rd and the bet cashes.

2. The returns he claims to get are absolutely ridiculous, actually laughable. Saying you will get even 1.5 to 1 by betting super-heavy faovorites to show is simply not true. That would mean the horse would pay $3 to show. These horses he is advocating picking are horses that are going to pay something like $2.50 to win! These horses will likely have a range of payouts from $2.10-$2.30 to show on a $2 wager.

Not a great way to make money. In fact, betting huge favorites to show is likely just about the worst method of making money betting races that I could think of. One loss wipes out many, many, many small 'victories' at $2.20 each.

Folks, there is a reason that people that put down large amounts on heavy favorites to show are called 'bridge jumpers.'

**therber2** · 03-25-09, 11:03 PM

lol. Yes, I have noticed! This is a great way to take yourself straight to the poorhouse. I realize that it is pretty easy to win a show, but the return is so small; one loss sets you back to zero or negative. I'm trying to get placers at least. Mcbain, what is your betting strategy?

BTW, please nobody do this system for real yet!! I will be the first to say that it is most likely a crock of shit; it is merely an experiment at this point.

**jellobiafra** · 03-26-09, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by mcbain

Not a great way to make money. In fact, betting huge favorites to show is likely just about the worst method of making money betting races that I could think of. One loss wipes out many, many, many small 'victories' at $2.20 each.

I can vouch for this. I've played around with this "system" for a few days playing $2 a pick for the most part. Usually the return is around $2.10 to $2.40.

**jjgold** · 03-26-09, 07:44 AM

Jellyfish your going to get destroyed doing this because eventually the big favs lose. I would get a new hobby Son or your going to be homeless, horses are the biggest sucker game in the world.

**Boner_18** · 03-26-09, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by mcbain

Folks, there is a reason that people that put down large amounts on heavy favorites to show are called 'bridge jumpers.'

Yep. A great thing to keep in mind at the track is that the show pools get skewed when these jumpers are around and it creates great counter-jumper opportunities.

**jellobiafra** · 03-26-09, 01:41 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Jellyfish your going to get destroyed doing this because eventually the big favs lose. I would get a new hobby Son or your going to be homeless, horses are the biggest sucker game in the world.

I've learned my lesson. Thankfully it only cost me a few bucks.

**joeyp1222** · 03-26-09, 01:59 PM

stay away from place and show betting youll never get ahead

**therber2** · 03-26-09, 03:02 PM

Yeah seems like it.

**Jamie_UK** · 03-26-09, 03:05 PM

do any American horse books take place only on dead 8's , I thought it was an auto ban?

**mcbain** · 03-27-09, 02:36 PM

Not sure what you mean Jamie but nice avatar.

To answer whomever asked for my betting strategy, it most certainly does not involve place or show!

I would say the two best bets for value of price offered at any racetrack are the pick-4 and the superfecta.

These bets consistently pay higher prices than they should considering the difficulty in actually selecting a winner in those pools.

Now, it is difficult to contruct a winning ticket with $4, but not so difficult to construct something that will pay at least $1,000 with say $80.

If your bankroll is small, at least bet your $4-8 per race in exacta and you have a chance to come out ahead. If you are happy to be selective and wait for certain key picks, a win bet along with exacta is OK as well, but I would suggest demanding at least 3-1 on your win bets.

That is about all I would want to say.