Suspicious drops?

[cutchemist42]

Was looking through the PPS of the local ASD races on Saturday and came across a drop that to me, looked suspect on the 1 horse here.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=ASD&race=6&param1=166&param2=3984&param3=785460

How do you guys personally deal with this? In this example, the horse has gone winning a stakes race and just the last race, finished 1 length behind in an open 10000claimer.

[JBEX]

They claimed him for 10k and have probably won about 30k with him. That being said that's too radical a drop for me considering how well he ran vs open 10k his last race. Sometimes these types win but probably over bet and I wouldn't touch them

[daoilman]

3.5k claimers. If you crave action then maybe a small bet, but not anything serious. Also, J R's Request has a preferred running style like the #1 but with better early speed, back quickly off eight days rest and he might go off at a good price.

Good luck today

[cutchemist42]

Horse ended up losing as a 1-5 fave.

[mikemca]

Look at 5-Moonluck in Wednesday's 2nd at Saratoga.

Now that's a suspicious drop.

[getthatheadup]

Mikemca,

Yes Moonluck looks very suspicious.Tied in with the long layoff I would look elsewhere. As I stated before I dont play much these days and dont have the form. I have to look at charts one horse at a time so it takes a while! LOL. Did take the time for this one and have found 2 that peaks interest.

6-Giulio Cesari. Last start at this level and first lasix was his best. Watched replay and he was sent hard from the 1 hole finishing one and half back. Should like the more speed favoring Saratoga track. Concern with Zitos Yankee Dime to his outside. Carried his speed the furthest yet last out. A bit suspicious of his drop as well as last was first try at claimers. Big drop from that 75k to this 20 and been bout 7 weeks.

4-Boss Daddy. Without going over all other horses there are a lot with questions.(ie; going from long on turf to sprint on dirt). This race could be ripe for a firster. First and foremost this colt out of Distorted Humor. Shows some nice works including 2 from the gate. One break in workout tab of almost a month but his last at 4 panels on the 2nd was his best. From what I could find on the trainer he has run 8 firsters. 3 in the money including 1 win.
Giulio is 15 m/l and Boss Daddy is 12. I would play them at close to these odds.

Kind of rusty and feedback from any posters welcomed. Good luck folks! I have been enjoying my limited time on this forum.

[JBEX]

5-moonluck.. obvious toss.. if he wins at odds on I'm good with that

4-boss daddy.. even though he's 4 don't like that he's up for 20k in debut being by an elite sire and with solid works

2-distant thoughts.. Dirt race not bad at all but a little put off by the tepid works

6-giulio cesari.. off rail but still 2 speeds outside of him

7-yankee dime.. could see him improving here with realistic drop.. to me 20k probably where he should be from what he's shown.. first 2 works since up from belmont solid

8-hey kid.. nice effort first dirt with blinkers. didn't watch replay but says he was between foes last half which makes his effort even better

3- lyrical miracle.. first two races with lasix he was involved to the quarter pole and eighth pole in mile races which to me isn't bad. Like the two even runs on the turf as conditioners.. top jockey named.. live longshot to me

378 are the ones that interest me here. If 7 goes below 7-2 I'd go with 38

[mikemca]

Hard to say how to play the race.On paper the 5 should win by 2 poles and the 7 should finish 2nd by 1 pole.You have to blindly guess that they just can't run .My guess would be that they still can run but are just hard to keep in one piece.

If I ignore those two the 1-Sounds Of Saratoga 20-1 looks playable.Only dry main track start was very first race.All good signs like C Martin about 30% turf to dirt///20% maiden claiming///close to 30% MSW to MDCL///has speed from the rail.

At least for a show bet


I usually like firsters too and Carroll is a good with horses making their debut.I just find it a little concerning that he is just now making it to the track at 4 years old and the very quick workout 8/2 looks like an advertisement saying "I'm good ,claim me".Plus Carroll is good at Churchill which is moving further and further down the ladder to almost a B track.Also I think he will take some money.

[JBEX]

Putting this horse up for sale for 20k considering how much he cost, how he ran in his only two starts is a huge negative. Is it possible he can win.. of course but knowing how the public over bets these types think he's a good play against. I think the fact he comes back at Saratoga might be window dressing to try and get rid of him.All this being said I only consider betting against these types to be average opinions

[getthatheadup]

Agree jbex. The long layoff only adds suspicion, have to assume some kind of injury. Like you I am guilty of not keeping records. Food for thought: I have always felt that when the main purpose for playing a race was due to a vulnerable favorite one should estimate his chances as about half of the money bet on him. So if Moonluck goes off at 3/5 he will have about 55% of pool bet on him. If you feel his chances are about 25% (break even at 3-1) thats a strong play against. Now many would say "thats nothing new he is an underlay". However, thinking in %s and confirming your ability by keeping records can only help your handicapping. In other words, after logging hundreds of races you would know much more than your ability at turf,maiden, routes etc...P.S. Do as I say not as I do..LOL

[TonyP]

scratch 1,2,7 in wed 2nd

I will go with the better jock with #8 however will pass this race due to scratches

[mikemca]

Agree with 8-Hey Kid but race is unplayable imo