And then tne phukkin borgata doesn't even carry dubai racing....fml
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Mike: Good score on the free contest.Comment -
Yeah I initially picked the #3, but switched as I thought too many above me would play him. Guess I was right, as I would have finished 4th. But used the same strategy previous race and it cost me a win with the #9 United Color. Think I am going to change my strategy somewhat on DW.Comment -
Tough card tomorrow and what makes it even tougher is De kock has a bunch making their 2nd start off the bench where he gets dramatic form reversals.A horse that just ran around the track 1st off lay off comes right back to demolish a field while up in class.Plus a couple races he might be playing tricks taking Soumillion off his best horse to ride another.Either way he has a bunch entered and whether you try to beat him or not is the key to most races.Comment -
First pass through, taking a very risky stance trying to beat Appleby who seems to finish in the top 2 with 75% + of his horses ,Bin Suroor and De Kock.
May change things up in the morning
Meydan
Race 1
5-Masamah 8-1
8-Jamesie 8-1
11-Mujaazef 12-1
Race 2
3-Dormello 15-1
2-Jutland 10-1
4-Certerach 12-1
9-Tanfeeth 20-1
Race 3
10-Free Wheeling 20-1
11-Ocean Tempest 20-1
4-Solar Deity 8-1
13-Bertiewhittle 5-1
Race 4
8-Plantagenet 20-1
5-Windhoek 4-1
10-Layali Al Andalus 8-1
Race 5
10-Dux Scholar 6-1
9-Iguazu Falls 20-1
14-Le Drakkar 50-1
8-Tamaathul 12-1
Race 6
5-Starboard 30-1
3-Gabrial 5-2Comment -
Favorite finished 2nd and got in the way of a nice start.I'll take 3 of top 4 in a 14 horse field , eventually they'll be 1st-2nd instead of 1st-3rd.
Meydan
Race 1
5-Masamah 8-1----------------------3rd
8-Jamesie 8-1------------------------1st
11-Mujaazef 12-1---------------------4thComment -
Good job MikeComment -
fukkkkkk 21-1 on a de kock / soumillion and I had no part of itComment -
Meydan
Race 1
5-Masamah 8-1--------------------------------3rd
8-Jamesie 8-1---------------------------------1st
11-Mujaazef 12-1----------------------------4th
Race 2
3-Dormello 15-1
2-Jutland 10-1
4-Certerach 12-1------------------------1st
9-Tanfeeth 20-1--------------------------3rd
Race 3
10-Free Wheeling 20-1-----------------------------2nd
11-Ocean Tempest 20-1
4-Solar Deity 8-1
13-Bertiewhittle 5-1Comment -
^Good job. Especially with the large fields at Dubai.Comment -
hit the 4th but probably won't pay much.Thought my long shot was home free making a huge move and opening up 4-5 lengths in the stretch but moved a tad early and got 4thComment -
Race 4
8-Plantagenet 20-1---------------------------------4th
5-Windhoek 4-1--------------------------------------1st
10-Layali Al Andalus 8-1--------------------------2ndComment -
Don't have a good read on this card.Will be re-evaluating on a race by race basis.
Meydan
Race 1
Haven't seen a huge field like this separated by so little yet this carnival with 14 of the 16 runners rated in between 120 and 127.That said two of the likely favorites are rated highest and appear most likely to progress of their last race.5-Mehree 6-1 making 2nd start of the cycle for De kock/Soumillion while getting back on turf is most likely imo but 4-Ahtoug 3-1 isn't far behind.The longer prices that interest me are 14-Take Ten, 15-Dungannon, and 16-Racy all are 12-1 ML but most likely go off higher.If Mehree really goes off at 6-1 I'll jump on that but otherwise probably key the 5 and 4 with the 14,15,16.I wouldn't be surprised with anyone in here though but Medicean Man is the one that scares me the most.
5-Mehree 6-1
4-Ahtoug 3-1
14-Take Ten 12-1
15-Dungannon 12-1
16-Racy 12-1
Race 2
Tricky race where the only stance I have is against Clon Brulee as one of the favorites.Like 7-Intrigo 5-1 and 10-Rebel Song 12-1 the most but 4-Ottoman Empire 8-1, 5-Regulation 12-1, and 2-Sahawar 12-1 .
7-Intrigo 5-1
10-Rebel Song 12-1
4-Ottoman Empire 8-1
5-Regulation 12-1
2-Sahawar 12-1
Race 3
On paper it's a Match race between 4-Flotilla 3-1 and 5-Certify 2-1 with 1-Mensoora 9-2 the only one with enough upside to compete.All 3 have been off a very long time so who knows if they are fit or need a race.Really sucks that it's only a 6 horse field as it could be a great spot to find an alternative but Shuruq is that alternative due to recency and 4-1 is way to short against the top 2.
4-Flotilla 3-1
5-Certify 2-1
1-Mensoora 9-2
Race 4
Seems pretty straightforward between 1-Mufarrh 8-1, 4-Zahee 5-1, and 10-Eastern Rules 6-1.Will oppose the US morning line fave 3-Tamarkuz 2-1 who is taking a huge hike in class.6-Santefisio 15-1 is the interesting bomb.
1-Mufarrh 8-1
4-Zahee 5-1
10-Eastern Rules 6-1
6-Santefisio 15-1
Race 5
Probably the toughest race to cap on the card.A lot of good horses in here with one of the best looking having a terrible draw in Brendan Bracken.In horizontals 1,2,3,4,8,10,12 could all be used so gl narrowing it down.To be honest I'm stabbing based on who the jockeys picked.I can't get a grasp on this one.
8-Maputo 5-1
12-Brendan Bracken 12-1
4-Tasaday 9-2
3-Trade Storm 10-1
Race 6
Running out of time but 2 bombs I'm using are 14-Moonlight Dash 20-1 and 10-Jawhar 12-1.I guess Haafaguinea and Saxo Jack are the 2 logical ones.Comment -
38/1 over 37/1 in the opener ...both 50-1 on MLComment -
Think Saxo Jack will get it done in the last.Comment -
went with the 3/8/12 exacta box in the 5th...and of course...FALSE START!!!
never saw that before....but then again, im a standardbred player....
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The pictures are amazing! Thank you Mike for the updates; The Dubai World Cup is truly one of the richest games of Horse Racing. It starts from January 9 and closes on March 29. There are 11 magnificent races that take place and I am looking forward to the 1st Race of February 6. Waiting for the pp’s are not on drf.Comment -
Last year's Dubai World Cup favorite Hunter's Light returns in the feature on Thursday but neither De Sousa or Barzalona opt to ride.Looks like a pretty good race with several horses aiming for the World Cup.Dunaden looks like a big player but has been racing at 1 1/2 mile or further just about every one of his 40 starts.Will be interesting to see how the cutback to 9 furlongs works.Comment -
Godolphin has a strong hand today with at least 1 but mostly 2 strong contenders in every race but the last.Might be a fun card for underneath horses that are keyed to one or two more likely runners.
The best rated are
Race 2-My Freedom
Race 3-Pretend
Race 4-Ihtimal
Race 5-Star Empire
Race 6-African Story
Race 7-El Estruendoso
Meydan
Race 2
Could be pretty straightforward with 10-Dragon Falls,14-Spirit Of Battle,7-My Freedom,and 11-Alnashmy.The winner is probably in that bunch but I'm going to try and figure out a way to get a couple likely big prices in an exacta or maybe even tri.
10-Dragon Falls 8-1
14-Spirit Of Battle 15-1
5-Russian Rock 10-1
3-Encipher 30-1
12-Alraihjan 12-1
Race 3
9-Pretend 5-2
11-Autumn Lily 8-1
8-Najm Suhail 15-1
5-He's No Saint 10-1
1-Journeyman 7-2
Race 4
1-Ihtimal 9-2
2-Magroora 15-1
9-Mensoora 6-1
5-Illuminating Dream 30-1
11-Sign Of Lucky 30-1
Race 5
1-Star Empire 6-1
13-Excellent Result 6-1
3-Certerach 4-1
5-Tenenbaum 12-1
Race 6
2-Dunaden 8-1
12-African Story 5-1
9-Heavy Metal 30-1
13-Artigiano 10-1
15-Surfer 15-1
Race 7
4-Chil The Kite 12-1
10-El Estruendoso 5-2
16-Gold Pearl 60-1
15-Banna Boirche 15-1
6-Spoil The Fun 12-1Comment -
Really like Feedyah in Race 4,great each way price.Comment -
hunters light should win easily here. even thought i hate buick he should get a nice tripComment -
Mike I see you scored again in the free DW contest at Dubai. Good going. But the Prince Bishop horse in race 6 was not one of your listed horses. Did you see something late in the process?Comment -
Thx
Yeah the thing I missed on Prince Bishop yesterday that jumped out at me 10 minutes before the race was how well he runs fresh.I went back and recapped the race because my original horse Heavy Metal was 30-1 ML and opened at 5-2.So I went back and found Prince Bishop.Don't know how I completely missed him originally as his #s were in line with the key players and he runs well at Meydan.Comment -
Top Rated Horses Thursday 2/13
R1---9-Winterlude 12-1(Awful ML as he will be the favorite or among the favorites)
R2---6-Long John 3-1(Most likely winner on the card so another iffy ML...Lucky to get even money)
R3---8-Captain Joy 20-1(A lot of value this race as favorite apparently hasn't shipped well from South Africa)
R4---3-Mars 7-2(2 horse race on paper between him and Variety Club)
R5---3-United Color 7-2(Everyone is picking this horse because comes out of a race where he beat many of these.Not a bad idea to toss everyone from that race and pick among the leftovers if wanting high risk / high reward)
R6---11-Dormello 20-1(This is a pretty popular pick for being 20-1 but that is because you don't often see the top rated horse at a 20-1 ML)Comment -
Thursday 2/20/14
Meydan
Race 1
May prove very difficult to beat 1-Anaerobio and 2-Zahee.
Race 2
Toughest race on the card imo.Can make a case for most of the 16 horse field.A few sources including Timeform like 8-Van Rooney 15-1 dropping out of a group 2 and switching back to tapeta from turf.I can't argue with them but if he gets bet hard there are many other ways to go like Dragon Falls,Disa Leader, Master Of War and Banna Boirche.No idea what I'm going to do until I see the tote board.
Race 3
Pretty odd to see a heavy favorite in a straight course 5 furlong sprint but 1-Catcall is deserving on paper.Beaten only a neck last 2 starts in a group 1 and group 3.No one else in here is even close to that classy.Also likes to set the pace and not much speed for a 5f sprint signed up.Does come off 137 day break so a few alternatives are 3-Abstraction 10-1 who has improved every one of his 8 starts, 7-Dungannon 12-1 whose last race was strictly a fitness run and now puts the visor back on for 2nd start which lead to 2 straight wins last year, and 2-Medicean Man 5-1 whose last race was very impressive closing from behind 15 other horses to get beaten only a neck.
Race 4
Cat O' Mountain is going to be a pretty heavy favorite and looks like Solar Deity is the wise guy horse so far in the European market.I'm taking a bunch of out of the box horses who are dropping out of what looks like bad runs but they are Group 2 races. 4-Steeler 12-1, 8-Samurai Sword 30-1, 2-Mutajare' all would be competitive here if not for ugly looking figures against much better company.
Race 5
Certify is 1-2 on the ML.Good Luck trying to beat her.I guess a case can be made that in the beginning of the Carnival of course all the Appleby and Bin Suroor Godolphin runners would have a fitness edge since they have been in Dubai while the others have shipped in and had to endure quarantine .The logic is that the other horses have caught up finally.
Race 6
Looks like a good race but surprisingly the ML offers no value.Think it's between Mujaarib and Tasaday with Empoli and Dastarhon the alternatives.They are the 1st thru 4th choices.Comment -
Coming down the stretch only 4 race days left.Group races are the same as graded stakes in USA so a Group 1 is a Grade 1 etc..
Thursday Feb 27th
UAE Oaks(Group 3)
Zabeel Mile(Group 2)
Saturday March 1st
Nad Al Sheba Trophy(Group 3)
Saturday March 8th(SUPER SATURDAY)
Two Group 1s
One Group 2
Three Group 3s
Saturday March 29th(WORLD CUP DAY)
Five Group 1s
Three Group 2sComment -
Today could be very boring with Wednaan race 3, Ihtimal race 4(This one being the hardest to beat.Wouldn't be surprised if they brought her back in the UAE Derby on World Cup night after she wins this UAE Oaks),Mushreq race 5,and Energia Davos race 6.
I'm trying to beat some of them but it would be misleading if I posted them as having a good chance.Comment -
Alright I have admittedly been lazy the last few Dubai cards because I didn't like them that much thinking they looked chalky.This one is a little better but giving it some effort because only 3 race days left.
Meydan
Saturday
Race 1
1-Mickdaam 6-1-Ran the best figure of his career last race and it was only a fitness run after being off a very long time.That run gives him a shot here but expecting a significant improvement.
Race 2
11-Dragon Falls 15-1-Really really dirtied up his form last two runs but both were terrible trips and now is primed 3rd off layoff.
15-Banna Boirche 30-1-Could pop at a huge price cutting back to 7f also 3rd off bench and goes for a hot trainer.Is 1 for 28 on the turf and 8 for 29 on synth with 7 more ITM for 15 of 29.This is synth and he sneaks in off the AE list.
Race 3
8-Take Ten 8-1-Has been running pretty well in 5f sprints on the straight course and seems to much prefer 6f around a turn.
Race 4
5-Captain Joy 10-1-What makes this race tough is that there are a lot of horses that want the lead but pps overseas are impossible to get a good picture of the pace scenario without running lines.Not many off the pace types in here but this one seems like it.He inherited the lead last race in what was the opposite of this with no front runners and I don't think he liked it.He wants to sit behind the pace and get first run.
Race 5
11-Simenon 4-1-This is a 1 3/4 mile turf marathon with 12 runners.Good luck.This guy seems like the class along with Cavalryman but I want to try and beat one of them with a couple long shots.
2-Buckwheat 30-1-Ran best fig in first start for Appleby last race.Could improve further 2nd out and gets more distance.
8-Moment In Time 30-1-Also goes 2nd off layoff and last race at 1 1/8 miles was far too short so had to be a tightener.
Race 6
3-Chil The Kite 12-1-Another tough race and maybe hardest on card.Like a couple 12-1 shots but having trouble deciding which among the favorites to use with them.This guy like a few of my other picks on the card has had issues in his last couple starts and is much better.
12-Regulation 12-1-Closed fast last race at shorter
9-Aussie Reigns 8-1-I guess would be my pick of the single digit odds but may have to go 4 deep.
5-Sanshaawes 3-1-Scrares me too much not to use himComment -
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All that is left is Super Saturday and then World Cup NightComment
