Jbex plays

[JBEX]

*** 51-45 overtime game..team -1 so really more like a -1

no big deal but actually +1

final tally with <8

1993 +3
1994 push
1994 -15
2002 -26
2004 -28
2006 -11
2010 -16
2010 +1 (overtime)

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R1 #4 twistcat candy (6-1)
R2 #6 starship impulse (8-1)
R3 #4 sweet khalewsi (7-2) 2 units
R4 #6 blue xanadu (6-1)
R5 #7 april rose (10-1)
R6 #3 flaget braves (2-1)

[JBEX]

R7 #4 detterent (8-1)
R8 #6 miss nalenee (15-1)
R9 #3 light the night (6-1)
R10 #4 fletcher is golden (5-1)

2nd post today

[steelheaddan]

Nice call on the 8th race, 20-1 winner. Thanks to you I had a small $4 across the board.

[JBEX]

Nice call on the 8th race, 20-1 winner. Thanks to you I had a small $4 across the board.

np...130 profit..glad you had it

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R1 #4 gray ransom (6-1)
R2 pass
R3 #7 prince of england (7-2)
R4 #5 travis county (7-2)
R5 #7 pira (9-2)

[JBEX]

R6 #6 ithinkitsmonday (8-1)
R7 #5 candu cat (3-1)
R8 #6 express jet (8-1)


look at last 2 later
2nd post today

[JBEX]

wildcard sdql ...found all of these tinkering

ex: 7-0 (12.72) ..
7-0 ATS..
beats spread by 12.72 pts/game
**************************************** ****
teams that score 20 or more points in week 16 than week 17 and score less than 8 pts week 17

2-5-1 (-10.5)

1993 +3
1994 push
1994 -15
2002 -26
2004 -28
2006 -11
2010 -16
2010 +1 (overtime)

play against oak and on hou-3.5
**************************************** ****
home favorites >9 since 2002 ..
8-0 (6.25)

pit -10
mia under 1st half tt..half unit

looks like 6-2 under 1st half team total opponent ..mia
avg total 9..avg pts scored 5.6
**************************************** ****
nyg as a dog off a win where they had no turnovers
and total between 41.5 and 49.5

11-0 under (9.68)
gb/nyg under 44.5

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=team%3DGiants+and+D+and+p%3AW+and+p%3ATO%3D0+and+41+%3Ctotal+%3C50+and+season%3E%3D2000&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[JBEX]

week 17 away fav >8 and favorite wildcard

3-0 under (-16.2)

2006 -21.5
2008 -15.5
2016 -11.5

average points scored first half team ..2
average points scored first half..7.3

sea/det under 44
sea/det under 1st half ...half unit

2nd wildcard post

[JBEX]

mike francesa

28-18 this year and last through end of regular (56-36)amazing record and coincidence.. missed his playoff picks if he gave them last year



hou -3.5
sea -8
pit -10
nyg +5

3rd wildcard post

[JBEX]

adding gb/nyg under 22.5 first half
sdql shows 9-2 to this

half unit

[JBEX]

gulfstream

R1 #6 misschief mass (5-1)
R2 #4 grn wknd (20-1) half ..#5 rrma dos (15-1)half
R3 #4 summer luck (3-1)
R4 #5 squadron (9-2)
R5 #7 monaco (5-2)

probably odds on but between his 1.3M price tag the useful experience gleaned at saratoga think he'll run lights out here. .uncle mo the sire stud fee doubled to 150 K this year..think 2 years ago he was only 25 K ..climbing up the ranks to be one of the elites

[JBEX]

R6 #5 barry's swing (12-1)
R7 #6 tale of s'avall (3-1) 2 units

even run and class drop seems to work well with this horse..3 previous solid efforts doing this (win,close 2nd, 3rd by <2)

[JBEX]

R8 #2 taperge (8-1)
R9 #2 lady alexandra (6-1)

[JBEX]

R8 #2 taperge (8-1)
R9 #2 lady alexandra (6-1)

#1 sorry

[JBEX]

GP9 #1 lady alexandra
GP10 #7 han sense
GP11 #5 my little princess

[JBEX]

sdql

hou -3.5 W
sea/det under 44 W
sea/det under 21 1st half W half unit


3-0...+2.5 units


francesa

hou -3.5 W
sea -8 W

2-0

[JBEX]

this strong system conflicting with nyg team trend
earlier that is 11-0 under..gonna layoff or go half unit
either way...decide later

wildcard..
team <20 pts previous week..
other >30 pts previous week..
team line +5 <..
total =>35

7-1 over (14.56) since 1994

1 game over by 48 pts ..
..if I take 3 pts/gm ,which I think is reasonable , margin still checks in at a healthy (11+)..only under was by 2 pts

gb/nyg over 44.5

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=week%3D+18+and+p%3Apoints+%3C20+and+op%3Apoints+%3E30+and+line+%3C5+and+total+%3E%3D35&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[JBEX]

this strong system conflicting with nyg team trend
earlier that is 11-0 under..gonna layoff or go half unit
either way...decide later

wildcard..
team <20 pts previous week..
other >30 pts previous week..
team line +5 <..
total =>35

7-1 over (14.56) since 1994

1 game over by 48 pts (same one discussed earlier)
..if I take 3 pts/gm ,which I think is reasonable , margin still checks in at a healthy (11+)..only under was by 2 pts

gb/nyg over 44.5

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

If you substitute +6 (line has moved to +5.5) still works well and it actually adds a win

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=week%3D+18+and+p%3Apoints+%3C20+and+op%3Apoints+%3E30+and+line+%3C6+and+total+%3E%3D35&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[JBEX]

this strong system conflicting with nyg team trend
earlier that is 11-0 under..gonna layoff or go half unit
either way...decide later

wildcard..
team <20 pts previous week..
other >30 pts previous week..
team line +5 <..
total =>35

7-1 over (14.56) since 1994

1 game over by 48 pts ..if I take 3 pts/gm ,which I think is reasonable , margin still checks in at a healthy (11+)..only under was by 2 pts

gb/nyg over 44.5

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

If you substitute +6 (line has moved to +5.5) still works well and it actually adds a win

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=week%3D+18+and+p%3Apoints+%3C20+and+op%3Apoints+%3E30+and+line+%3C6+and+total+%3E%3D35&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[JBEX]

tampa bay

R1 #4 cold dish (5-2)
R4 #4 my brown eyed guy (10-1)
R5 #4 southern quality (9-2)
R6 #6 for point oh (15-1).. #2 could it be me (6-1)

[JBEX]

going to lay off gb/nyg total half and game as too much conflicting info...


pitt -11 (half unit)
mia tt under 8 first half (half unit)
nyg +6 (b half) (full unit )

nyg based on francesa

[JBEX]

going to lay off gb/nyg total half and game as too much conflicting info...


pitt -11** (half unit)
mia tt under 8 first half (half unit)
nyg +6 (b half) (full unit )

nyg based on francesa

**11.5

[JBEX]

tampa bay

R8 #6 lots o' lex (7-2)
R9 #5 pontificate (4-1)

2nd tampa post

[JayTris07]

Happy New Year and GL to you JBEX.

[JBEX]

santa anita

R1 #9 lady beware (8-1)
R2 #6 lucky patrick (5-1)

[JBEX]

R3 #7 anthonysgotgame (8-1)
R4 #3 i can do this (7-2)
R5 #6 sir cal (15-1)

2nd santa anita

[JBEX]

R7 #2 who's out (4-1)
R8 #9 it's tiz well (6-1)
R9 #10 son of the south (30-1)

3rd santa anita post

[JBEX]

going to lay off gb/nyg total half and game as too much conflicting info...


pitt -11 (half unit)
mia tt under 8 first half (half unit)
nyg +6 (b half) (full unit )

nyg based on francesa

2-0 systems.. +1 unit
0-1 francesa (his only loss.. went 3-1)..-1.2 units

[JBEX]

start off with this...

divisional playoff game..
team away..
opponent wins =>13
team made all goal to go attempts wildcard..
team possessed ball =>31 mins wildcard

7-0 (11.00)

gb +4*
hou +16


*biggest margin of all 7 is gb in 2011 (28)

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=week+%3D19+and+A+and+o%3AWP%3E80+and+p%3AGTGM++%3D+p%3AGTGA++and+p%3ATOP+%3E+1859&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[JBEX]

start off with this...

divisional playoff game..
team away..
opponent wins =>13
team made all goal to go attempts wildcard..
team possessed ball =>31 mins wildcard

7-0 (11.00)

gb +4*
hou +16


*biggest margin of all 7 is gb in 2011 (28)

divisional home teams who have won 13>
games regular season whose time of possession week 17 less than 25 min and turnover margin > 1

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/quer...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

last game (smallest margin) in above query is half point cover by no vs sea..teeming rain that day,.game in seattle (obviously )

no 1st downs 25
sea 1st downs 13

query below ..teams with >=25 1st downs vs opp with <=13 1st downs



team:270-78 ATS (12.9 ATS)..
30.9 -12.9 avg score

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=FD+%3E%3D+25+and+o%3AFD+%3C%3D+13&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

conclusion:last game was an aberation
-----------------------------------------------------------------
gb 6-1 (7.07)* away playoffs since 2011

* these numbers ALWAYS ATS
------------------------------------------------------------
13+ win divisional round home teams (ne,dal) are 10-20 ATS including 6-17 ATS last 23
---------------------------------------------------------------
good one on the under gb/dal..

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=week+%3D+19+and+o%3AWP+%3E+80+and+op%3ATOP+%3C+1500+and+p%3ATOM+%3C+-1&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[JBEX]

parx

R1 #9 quiet revenge (7-2)
R2 #2 storm lute (12-1)

gonna look at rest

[JBEX]

parx

R5 #4 flashonforty (6-1)
R6 #1 train of hope (5-1)

[JBEX]

R7 #8 ameridude (6-1)
R8 #1 adumato (4-1)
R9 #10 d'marin (12-1)

this is a clm 5000n2y going back 6 months to 7/9..his last two wins 7/24 and 7/9 so first day eligible for this condition...last time he ran at this level was a clm 5000b (very similar ) and won at mth..these are much easier than he's been facing...last race at 75002y I believe would beat this field

[JBEX]

Wow parx a disaster...should have stayed on the sidelines
..like bama-6.5 a lot tonight..reverseline movement
which is even more valuable in bowl games then regular season games from what I've read ..get them at an attractive number to boot...put some stuff up dal/gb a few posts back