Mott and Amollient

[daoilman]

Last week, March 30th, I used the Bill Mott piece Emollient as an under in the GP Oaks, I couldn't figure her to beat the monster Dreaming Of Julia, but did figure that in a small field she could be easy second or third.

The video shows Emollient backing through the field, looking like a 5 claimer at Finger Lakes in what was an obvious no try. If Mott is such an extraordinary trainer does he not know when his stock is not up to snuff? Was Mott just dodging the talented Dreaming Of Julia, not wanting to tangle with her?

And how to explain the stellar performance of Emollient today? Today, seven days after Emollient fell apart she fires from an outside post and crushes a large field of fairly talented horses in a graded stake at Keenland, no work, never been over the track, ships 700 miles north, not a clue to tell us that she is going to be killer today.

The question that begs is...How to determine when a horse of quality is going to rebound from a bad race, because as we all know they don't always come back fast and dominate, to the contrary, in most cases they flounder again or sometimes make slight improvements.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=KEE&race=9&date=2013-04-06

I guess I need to search EBay for a Ouija board.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?date=2013-04-06&track=KEE&country=USA&race=9&type=inc&print=on

[mikemca]

I had a good feeling she was very live today.Used her in pace contest.Think something must have went wrong last week,Mott knew she would love poly, and maybe she runs 10x better when on the lead.Thought it was very fishy he rushed her back in a week which he almost never does.

Also today might have looked better than it was.Something crazy like the last 6 or 7 winners of the Ashland were bigger prices who went wire to wire.

[mikemca]

The question that begs is...How to determine when a horse of quality is going to rebound from a bad race, because as we all know they don't always come back fast and dominate, to the contrary, in most cases they flounder again or sometimes make slight improvements.

I think the answer to this has everything to do with the trainer and knowing their tendencies.Do they often put horses in over their heads or do they drop them immediately after they show they don't belong.

[daoilman]

So from now forward all Mott horses with similar profiles and similar odds should be bet blindly?

[mikemca]

So from now forward all Mott horses with similar profiles and similar odds should be bet blindly?

Sure but you're gonna be waiting a long time.That scenario probably happens every few years if that.




On second thought it might happen less than that.

[daoilman]

Sure but you're gonna be waiting a long time.That scenario probably happens every few years if that.

Which makes the results even more absurd, you're much to good of a handicapper to side with the defense. What we saw yesterday was straight out of the Gasper Moschera playbook, do you remember that crew Mike? Moschera, Barrera, Ferriola, Dutrow, Odintz, you remember those crooks? The guys who regularly made graded winners out of cheap claiming stock, the guys who were infamous for form reversals.

I can remember way back in the late 80's, there was a Ferriola runner by the name of Fugie, a cheap claiming sprinter who set a NYRA track record one afternoon, I can remember because the race caller, Durkin I believe, left his mic on a little to long after the race when in astonishment he openly commented "talk about Elephant juice".

Now I'm not saying that Mott uses juice, not at all, I doubt that he does anything illegal with regards towards therapy or medications, what I am saying is that I think he instructed Lezcano to take a dive verses Dreaming Of Julia in the GP Oaks in anticipation of the Keenland race yesterday, in effect the GP Oaks was a public workout. Therein lies the problem in horse racing, while trying to attract new players they drive folks off with blatant thievery, even at the highest levels, no trainer, no matter how respected for his work is above manipulation at the expense of the betting public.

[str]

Mike has given you some very solid advise. When a good trainer steps way out of the normal with a horse, there is always a good, make that really good, reason. Running back in 7 days with a good horse that was crushed in her last race was as rare move for Mott. As a handicapper, you do not need to know the reason why she ran poorly as much as you need to know that Mott is very confident the last race was a throw out. I will take a stab as to what happened just in case you care.

The video showed her turning her head way to the right 2 different times going around the clubhouse turn. Not sure what that was, but it definitely was not normal. I have no form and wonder if it was the dirt hitting her in the face. Is she used to dirt hitting her in the face? She only seemed to do it when the horse laying 2nd went outside which put her directly in the path of the flying dirt in her face. That horse laying 2nd tucked in for a while down the backside and she seemed content. She also seemed to change her action again about the 4 1/2 pole just before she dropped way out of it . She did not jump straight up and down like many will do when dirt hits them in the face, but did seem to get more arch to her action at that point . This could have been a reason.

Another angle if you care, is when trainers step out of character with a filly or mare, it can be because all fillies and mares have hormonal cycles that can directly affect their performance. Some much more so than others and typically this starts in the 3 year old year. These cycles run from spring thru fall. A minority of 3 year olds that are prone to having more acute reactions to these cycles than others can show a huge change in attitude and willingness to perform as these cycles usually peak about every 3 weeks and for two or three days they are simply NOT the same from a competitive standpoint. This could have been her 1st or 2nd ever. Racing usually diminishes the cycle to some degree but again, a small % can really be affected, especially in their 3 year old year especially when it is new to them. It's called "horsing" and if that was the reason the bad race was a definite throw. Those are two very possible reasons and there is no way a bettor can know this stuff. That is up to the trainer, but if a guy like Mott does what he did wheeling her back off a terrible race in 7 days and flying her 700 miles, you have to look at that and say to yourself, Mott would not be doing this unless he was sure it was not about ability, soundness or fitness . Therefore, she has the ability, she is sound and she is fit. If he is willing to put his neck on the line by running her back in that spot, you are willing to put your money on the line because Mott IS that darn good.
It is frustrating for a bettor to not know why something happened. In this case, times two. Don't know why she got crushed and don't know why she galloped a week later. But again, Mott knew and that is his job. Your job is to identify good trainers stepping out on a limb and deciding whether or not to trust their judgement. With guys like Mott, always, is not a bad choice.
Hope that helps explain it.

[str]

Which makes the results even more absurd, you're much to good of a handicapper to side with the defense. What we saw yesterday was straight out of the Gasper Moschera playbook, do you remember that crew Mike? Moschera, Barrera, Ferriola, Dutrow, Odintz, you remember those crooks? The guys who regularly made graded winners out of cheap claiming stock, the guys who were infamous for form reversals.

I can remember way back in the late 80's, there was a Ferriola runner by the name of Fugie, a cheap claiming sprinter who set a NYRA track record one afternoon, I can remember because the race caller, Durkin I believe, left his mic on a little to long after the race when in astonishment he openly commented "talk about Elephant juice".

Now I'm not saying that Mott uses juice, not at all, I doubt that he does anything illegal with regards towards therapy or medications, what I am saying is that I think he instructed Lezcano to take a dive verses Dreaming Of Julia in the GP Oaks in anticipation of the Keenland race yesterday, in effect the GP Oaks was a public workout. Therein lies the problem in horse racing, while trying to attract new players they drive folks off with blatant thievery, even at the highest levels, no trainer, no matter how respected for his work is above manipulation at the expense of the betting public.

While one of the guys on your list of crooks I would take exception too, you have every right to feel the way you do. You, and many others have passion for the game and I very much respect that. So too, do the vast, vast, majority of trainers, jockeys and backstretch employees that work 7 days a week there.
All I can do as a person that has NO stake in the game anymore but will always have a passion for it as well as a passion to try to help those that also love the game, like yourself, is feed you truthful information in hopes of giving you the best chance to form your own opinion.
All trainers have patterns. All of them. Some are easier to spot than others but they all do. What you suggest is not how Mott rolls.

As a bettor, your suspicion is very high, as well it should be. And in a game that some of those aforementioned knuckleheads screwed over, you have every right. I would have loved to kick most of those guys in there nuts for what they did, and they DID do it IMO and from all the evidence I saw. Not that I know any more about this exact incident than you, because I do not, but Mott instructing a dive never crossed my mind. Too me, it makes no sense.

Lastly, I was typing for about an hour off and on and did not see this response until I posted what I wrote. It was by no means an excuse because of what you posted 13 minutes earlier. I just wanted to be sure you did not think it was. It was simply an attempt to help you better understand the daily challenges trainers have.

[JakeLc]

On TG they gave her a comment of "rank" for her FL Oaks race. The number she earned in that race was just as fast as her previous 2 races which were as fast or faster than most of the field.
Mott when coming back in under 11 days was 19% from 69 starts.

[mikemca]

Which makes the results even more absurd, you're much to good of a handicapper to side with the defense. What we saw yesterday was straight out of the Gasper Moschera playbook, do you remember that crew Mike? Moschera, Barrera, Ferriola, Dutrow, Odintz, you remember those crooks? The guys who regularly made graded winners out of cheap claiming stock, the guys who were infamous for form reversals.

I can remember way back in the late 80's, there was a Ferriola runner by the name of Fugie, a cheap claiming sprinter who set a NYRA track record one afternoon, I can remember because the race caller, Durkin I believe, left his mic on a little to long after the race when in astonishment he openly commented "talk about Elephant juice".

Now I'm not saying that Mott uses juice, not at all, I doubt that he does anything illegal with regards towards therapy or medications, what I am saying is that I think he instructed Lezcano to take a dive verses Dreaming Of Julia in the GP Oaks in anticipation of the Keenland race yesterday, in effect the GP Oaks was a public workout. Therein lies the problem in horse racing, while trying to attract new players they drive folks off with blatant thievery, even at the highest levels, no trainer, no matter how respected for his work is above manipulation at the expense of the betting public.

What I'm saying is that if you looked at Emollient minus yesterdays race you see 4 good races that lead up to a horrible race.There could be a million reasons for the horrible race but If that truly represented her current form there is no way Mott brings her back in a graded stake let alone 7 days later .

There are very few trainers where I give the benefit of the doubt to their horses in a graded stake if they look like they don't belong.Off the top of my head Mott and Shug is all I can think of.If they have one entered they are ready to fire.Its just determining whether their best is good enough.

As far as taking a dive vs Dreaming Of Julia it may have just been a case where Lezcano wrapped it up once DOJ was 10+ lengths clear and drawing away or maybe Lezcano is just in a funk.I like him a lot but getting taken off Normandy Invasion and Emollient isn't that great a sign.I don't think the GP Oaks was a workout ,DOJ just freaked with according to some the fastest race ever for a 3 yr old filly.

[TonyP]

I think MOtt said she was washed out bad in that race and settled down shortly after getting back to barn so it was an automatic toss out race.

[daoilman]

While one of the guys on your list of crooks I would take exception too, you have every right to feel the way you do. You, and many others have passion for the game and I very much respect that. So too, do the vast, vast, majority of trainers, jockeys and backstretch employees that work 7 days a week there.
All I can do as a person that has NO stake in the game anymore but will always have a passion for it as well as a passion to try to help those that also love the game, like yourself, is feed you truthful information in hopes of giving you the best chance to form your own opinion.
All trainers have patterns. All of them. Some are easier to spot than others but they all do. What you suggest is not how Mott rolls.

As a bettor, your suspicion is very high, as well it should be. And in a game that some of those aforementioned knuckleheads screwed over, you have every right. I would have loved to kick most of those guys in there nuts for what they did, and they DID do it IMO and from all the evidence I saw. Not that I know any more about this exact incident than you, because I do not, but Mott instructing a dive never crossed my mind. Too me, it makes no sense.

Lastly, I was typing for about an hour off and on and did not see this response until I posted what I wrote. It was by no means an excuse because of what you posted 13 minutes earlier. I just wanted to be sure you did not think it was. It was simply an attempt to help you better understand the daily challenges trainers have.

I respect your opinion, and you are indeed entitled to it, that being said, I stand by my evaluation of what transpired, Mott dodged the monster while at the same time getting a real, protected, public workout into his charge. I don't believe Mott did what he did in an attempt to generate better odds, I don't believe the Mott stable is a betting stable, I think he did it because he knew it would be a waste to hook Dreaming Of Julia, and rather than scratch he figured it was a good spot for real race schooling and work.

The shit part of this whole deal is not the Keenland performance, but rather the non performance in the GP Oaks. Amollient shipped down from NYRA after a little time off, went into a 75k claimer and won it in what appears to be a once over the strip type effort, then rested again and entered into a grade 3, the set up looked strong heading into the GP Oaks, only one problem, Dreaming Of Julia entered the same race.

Of note, Dreaming Of Julia went a mile and an eighth almost a full 2 seconds faster than Orb did four races later at the same distance, Julia clocked in at 1:48.97 while Orb, a Kentucky Derby hopeful went around in 1:50.87, for anyone to propose that Mott had no idea of what Julia was capable of is pure foolishness, a horseman of Mott's caliber not only knows his own horses, he know the competition too.

[daoilman]

I think MOtt said she was washed out bad in that race and settled down shortly after getting back to barn so it was an automatic toss out race.

You are in way over your head, unless of course you have a link to what you claim or you are personal friend of Mott and spoke with him post race, if either is the case you have my apology.

[str]

I respect your opinion, and you are indeed entitled to it, that being said, I stand by my evaluation of what transpired, Mott dodged the monster while at the same time getting a real, protected, public workout into his charge. I don't believe Mott did what he did in an attempt to generate better odds, I don't believe the Mott stable is a betting stable, I think he did it because he knew it would be a waste to hook Dreaming Of Julia, and rather than scratch he figured it was a good spot for real race schooling and work.

The shit part of this whole deal is not the Keenland performance, but rather the non performance in the GP Oaks. Amollient shipped down from NYRA after a little time off, went into a 75k claimer and won it in what appears to be a once over the strip type effort, then rested again and entered into a grade 3, the set up looked strong heading into the GP Oaks, only one problem, Dreaming Of Julia entered the same race.

Of note, Dreaming Of Julia went a mile and an eighth almost a full 2 seconds faster than Orb did four races later at the same distance, Julia clocked in at 1:48.97 while Orb, a Kentucky Derby hopeful went around in 1:50.87, for anyone to propose that Mott had no idea of what Julia was capable of is pure foolishness, a horseman of Mott's caliber not only knows his own horses, he know the competition too.

Mott knew Julia was going to be entered in that race before he entered his horse. It is no secret when it comes to graded stakes who is and who is not going to run come entry day. He could have chose to not enter if he did not want to race against her and there was no way of knowing in the paddock while giving instructions that Julia was going to run 2 seconds faster than Orb.
The theory includes hindsight that did not yet exist yet. If he wanted no part of her, scratch, work on Sunday or Monday and run in the Ashland. That way she could have worked over the Keenland strip prior to the race yesterday.
Was that bad race the 1st time she had ever had dirt in her face?

[JakeLc]

I guess you can believe what you want about it being a non effort
She ran as fast in the Oaks as she did in her previous 2 races before the Oaks.

[daoilman]

Was that bad race the 1st time she had ever had dirt in her face?

Amollient had never been on the the lead prior to the Keenland race, and she had raced well in every start prior to her start in the GP Oaks, I'm guessing that she had experienced having dirt kicked in her face on more that one occasion.

Here is the link to her PP's

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=KEE&race=9&date=2013-04-06

[TonyP]

You are in way over your head, unless of course you have a link to what you claim or you are personal friend of Mott and spoke with him post race, if either is the case you have my apology.

race day las vegas

[daoilman]

I guess you can believe what you want about it being a non effort
She ran as fast in the Oaks as she did in her previous 2 races before the Oaks.

As for this, I guess Beyer must be forked in the head if running as fast as she did her previous two means that her last three speed figs were, 92,93,74. Of course I don't put much stock in Beyer numbers so that really wasn't a determining factor, more so the watching of the horse in the GP Oaks was critical, one of two things occurred, either Amollient was backed out or she simply threw up a bad one, I'm leaning towards backed out theory.

[mikemca]

I guess you can believe what you want about it being a non effort
She ran as fast in the Oaks as she did in her previous 2 races before the Oaks.

I don't know about that.That is only on Thorograph who gave Dreaming Of Julia the best figure ever so naturally everyone that finished behind her piggybacked her big figure including Emollient.

[daoilman]

race day las vegas

WTF is this? No link? Something you heard somewhere that someone else said that she said that he said?

You're kidding around right?

http://racedaylasvegas.com/archives/RDLV20130301.mp3

http://racedaylasvegas.com/archives.htm

http://racedaylasvegas.com/

I'm not even going to waste my time listening to that tripe.

[TonyP]

Do you remember poppa catfish? He won the gold in the 5k run at Santa Anita yesterday.

[TonyP]

WTF is this? No link? Something you heard somewhere that someone else said that she said that he said?

You're kidding around right?

http://racedaylasvegas.com/archives/RDLV20130301.mp3

http://racedaylasvegas.com/archives.htm

http://racedaylasvegas.com/

I'm not even going to waste my time listening to that tripe.

finding the exact point they talk about it

"no listening to this tripe" guess thats why you missed why she ran so bad at GP and rebounded nicely yesterday.

[daoilman]

Do you remember poppa catfish? He won the gold in the 5k run at Santa Anita yesterday.

Yeah, and oranges are 3$ a piece in China.

[daoilman]

finding the exact point they talk about it

"no listening to this tripe" guess thats why you missed why she ran so bad at GP and rebounded nicely yesterday.

Now please tell everyone how you emptied your bank account and and sold your car and mortgaged your house and bet it all on Amollient to win, and now you are rolling around on the floor in your new found wealth, you are the best haddicapper in the world.

Oh yeah, thanks for sharing that info with us yesterday before the race went off.

[JakeLc]

I don't know about that.That is only on Thorograph who gave Dreaming Of Julia the best figure ever so naturally everyone that finished behind her piggybacked her big figure including Emollient.

She ran the 2nd fastest Fr1 of her career in the Oaks and she was wide plus rank. I feel she earned the figure she received in the Oaks.

[TonyP]

I find it funny that you think she should not have ran big yesterday. Wish I could book your action

[TonyP]

Now please tell everyone how you emptied your bank account and and sold your car and mortgaged your house and bet it all on Amollient to win, and now you are rolling around on the floor in your new found wealth, you are the best haddicapper in the world.

Oh yeah, thanks for sharing that info with us yesterday before the race went off.

I never bet my bankroll in one race LOL.

[TonyP]

you could have listened to race day las vegas same as me, as I was busy cappin for the day.

[daoilman]

I find it funny that you think she should not have ran big yesterday. Wish I could book your action

I wish I could book yours, I don't think I have ever seen you post a winner before a race was run, gotta hand it to you though, you are sharp at picking winners after the race has run.

[TonyP]

Now please tell everyone how you emptied your bank account and and sold your car and mortgaged your house and bet it all on Amollient to win, and now you are rolling around on the floor in your new found wealth, you are the best haddicapper in the world.

Oh yeah, thanks for sharing that info with us yesterday before the race went off.

you could have listened to it like anyone else

[TonyP]

I wish I could book yours, I don't think I have ever seen you post a winner before a race was run, gotta hand it to you though, you are sharp at picking winners after the race has run.

LOL alright , you care to take me on in a cappin contest, your choice of track.

[TonyP]

I wish I could book yours, I don't think I have ever seen you post a winner before a race was run, gotta hand it to you though, you are sharp at picking winners after the race has run.

want ot see who I picked yesterday at AQ. I won the roi contest yesterday across the street.

[str]

Amollient had never been on the the lead prior to the Keenland race, and she had raced well in every start prior to her start in the GP Oaks, I'm guessing that she had experienced having dirt kicked in her face on more that one occasion.

Here is the link to her PP's

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...ate=2013-04-06

Thanks for the link. Dirt was not the issue. I did see rank and eager down the chart and she certainly was with the head movement around the turn but it is hard to believe it would be dirt.
All I can hope for is that the next time something like this happens, you spot it , have it, and feel good about it. It stinks to have a bad feeling about any game in which you participate. If you read by thread, at the time, that was one of several reasons I retired. But I will say this, if all the people I raced against were as classy and honest as Bill Mott, I never would have considered leaving. I just cannot imagine for a second that with his respect for the game as well as the fan base, Bill would think like that. It just does not fit who he is IMO.

[daoilman]

LOL alright , you care to take me on in a cappin contest, your choice of track.

I'm really not interested in interacting with you in any way, nothing you have to offer interests me, you troll threads and derail them while stroking your own imaginary ego, you have no value.

You want to prove your worth, post a winner once in a while, or intelligently contribute to a conversation, blowing your own horn ain't gonna cut it with me.

[TonyP]

I'm really not interested in interacting with you in any way, nothing you have to offer interests me, you troll threads and derail them while stroking your own imaginary ego, you have no value.

You want to prove your worth, post a winner once in a while, or intelligently contribute to a conversation, blowing your own horn ain't gonna cut it with me.

I dont blow my own horn.

I have contributed to some converstions in past.

I dont hang out here very often and have been on the road a lot with no time to post picks.