Best Bet Oaklawn Park

[daoilman]

I have in the past subscribed to American Turf Monthly, so I am on their mailing list.
About 2-3 times a month they send me a flyer via email. Included in the flyer on the sidebar is a section entitled "Horses to Watch". I have never put much stock into the selections provided as they seem foster very few winners and often at short prices.

That brings us to today, in ATM's horses to watch dated Jan. 11th they list the best bet at Oaklawn Park as All About Allie, she goes today in the 8th race. The ATM comments were as follows.

BEST BET: ALL ABOUT ALLIE: Five year old mare loves to win and loves this track, shows some nice works in the morning and should come out firing for her first try in 2013, follow closely next out.

http://www.americanturf.com/newsletter/show.cfm?id=4267&utm_source=20130111&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly_20130111&siteid=20130111

All input is once again welcome, is this a good play figuring of course that this horse will most likely not be the favorite.

The past performances follow.

[BGboothA]

I have #3 ALL ABOUT ALLIE as my third horse on the board in that race. ML of 9/2 would be about right, but I am not sure the pace of will set up well for the 3 here.

I would rather look at #1 MYSTERIOUS CHIME (ml 4-1) who I think may get a run at wiring the field in this one.

[str]

She does like to win and that is certainly a positive but... anytime I see a horse mirror last years pattern I look for what the owner as well as the trainer might be thinking in terms of priority's. The owner is also the breeder. The breeder being from Arkansas is very much wanting to win the Arkansas breds only race just like last year. In this case I think the trainer wants it more. The trainer is one of the Director's.
Below is a list of the Arkansas Horse Breeders Assoc. Members:

Welcome To ATBHA 2009-2011 ATBHA Officers & Board Directors President: Bill McDowell (870)366-4377 mcdowellliz@hotmail.com Vice-President: Tommy Ives (501)525-3980 ivesbusiness@sbcglobal.net Directors: Susan Watkins (501)617-8441 royalcourtequine@direclynx.net Jesse Clement (501)622-7899 jclement07@att.net James Glover (501)804-2000 jglover@glvrs.com Tim Martin (501)276-2440 tinmartinracing23@yahoo.com Dr. Bob McFarlin (501)620-8861 eaglehorsevet@aol.com Stanley Roberts (870)261-2511 swayneroberts@hotmail.com David Whited (501)286-5998 Libbie E Thiel (501)337-7007 grayfeather2@msn.com Lewis Mathews, Jr (501)276-0115 lewismathewsjr@gmail.com Executive Secretary: Deana Echols (501)624-6328 atbha@att.net

While I am sure that they WANT to win and HOPE to win but I am also sure that if they could choose which race they would rather win, it would be the Ark. Bred race that is up next month. Purses are the same so my guess would be that the horse is geared to run it's peak effort next time. Again, if she wins great, but I have to think that the bigger prize awaits next month. Whether or not it works out that way remains to be seen but chances are everything has been mirrored including her preparation and jocks instructions leading up to this race . I know that my assumptions make sense but with that said, I hope it works out that way and I don't cost you a winner.

Here it is:
Oaklawn Park: Downthedustyroad Breeders' S (R), $60,000g, 3&up, f/m, Arkansas-bred, 6f. This race is scheduled for Feb. 23rd.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz2IXIYzsPe

[JakeLc]

Using the path she took last year she ran ( according to my data) her career best in the ArkBred sprint stake in her start after this stake last year. Add to that I have her trainer ( former first call jockey for trainer Richard Hazelton) at 0/14 at layoffs of 66-165 days and 0/34 off of layoffs overall.

Could she win....sure but
you have to ask yourself if the price you're getting at post time is fair for a horse that may not be "fully cranked" for the race as shown by the situation from last year and the trainer stats.
In a situation like that I would need the pace scenario to be in my favor or have her be in easy enough that her best isn't needed to win.

[daoilman]

A very good effort, running second to the dead nuts favorite, as you folks suggested, this one is now primed for its next run.