Dead Rail playbacks Saturday

**pley1234** · 12-15-12, 07:44 AM

Thanks for sharing

**gembo12** · 12-15-12, 10:52 AM

Sounds good to me.

**Slimpickens** · 12-15-12, 11:00 AM

Dang, my favorite one of the bunch is scratched. Roaring Conquest in the 6th.

**str** · 12-15-12, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by SlimPickens

Have 3 horses entered today that raced on November 14th at Aqueduct which was a day in which the rail wasnt the place to be. All 3 raced primarily on the rail which hindered there chances and should run much better today. Then allitle about why I like these runners in addition to racing on the deal rail.

Race 3. 5 Finders Key 4-1ML

Comes in 2nd off a 3 month layoff.
Should sit a dream trip.
The 4 horse in todays race Lady Gracenote last ran on the same day November 14th in which she got a dream off the pace trip and swooped by the field on the outside which was the primary place to be to win. Also this field was much weaker than the one she faces today.
The 1st 2 choices in this race are both speeds, one hasnt ran since July and the other is due to regress IMO as well as possibly being burnt out by the likely hot pace.

Race 4. 4 Boldschildsrevenge 6-1ML

Dropping from Maiden 50 claimer to 25 claimer.
Trainer change to Bruce Brown, rider stays aboard. Like that the rider is going to ride back despite the barn change.
2nd time blinkers. Like this angle when the horse didnt get out of the gate smoothly with 1st time blinkers. Should be a major pace factor here.

Race 6. 8 Roaring Conquest 5-1ML

This is actually the 2nd race back off the dead rail trip but last race was against much better and he didnt appear to take to the sloppy track.
Gets major riders change.
I think he is a better 2 turn horse which he gets today for the 1st time since August.
Has been running against better competition.
Im hoping that the number 1 Nelsons Avenue gets gunned out of the gate as well as the likely favorite number 5 Readthebyline to set up a fast place for Roaring Conquest to close into.

Im betting all 3 to Win and Place. In addition exacta box 5,8 in the 6th race.

Best of luck.

Having no form, and no opinion , if I may, maybe I can pass along ways to view these listings. I hope they help.

Race 3

The winner was with the bias, but the rest of the field is weaker. That is a great setup. It looks like off a 3 month layoff your horse was vs. the bias but still ran 2nd. Just make sure that your selection does not run GREAT off of time. If so, her 2nd vs. the bias might have been such a tremendous effort that she could regress some . Hopefully not, but IF she runs GREAT off of time and IF she regresses some today, be sure and follow her back next time. If however, she typically runs just so so after time, and the trainer is not GREAT off of time, today is probably going to be a good day for her.

Race 4

I assume the trainer change is a positive change. I hope so. Rider staying on is never a bad thing with maidens. 2nd time blinkers worries me a bit. Blinkers is usually a sudden impact change. 2nd time, if the 1st time was not much help, is scary. IF however, the horse got bumped by others, the horse can definitely get a pass. Blinkers though, typically helps horses break like a bullet 1st time on. A rerun would help you there unless you remember it vividly.

Race 6

I see it's scratched but...

2nd back off a dead rail is also a bit scary. HOWEVER, if indeed it was a sloppy track that made the horse run poorly, no problem. Did the horse actually improve it's performance race vs. race against better? By that I mean, even though it might have been off the board, was the actual effort better? Or did the slop take away all chance?
He could well be a better 2 turn horse but will he get the trip from the 8 post? I assume he would have been be 6-8 lengths back early?

Hope all this helps. Just trying to help out with reading returning bias horses.

Best of Luck.

**Slimpickens** · 12-15-12, 02:02 PM

Finders Key found her best stride to late in the game and Boldchildsrevenge was dueled into submission and tired deep stretch.

**JakeLc** · 12-15-12, 02:30 PM

str, the horse in race 6, I have improving and moving forward from the dead rail race to the slop race. Still he hasn't come close to reproducing what he had been doing earlier in the year

**str** · 12-15-12, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by JakeLc

str, the horse in race 6, I have improving and moving forward from the dead rail race to the slop race. Still he hasn't come close to reproducing what he had been doing earlier in the year

Yes, that is what usually happens . The best effort is NEXT off a bias, even if that effort is not on par with earlier this year.

By the way, Laurel is SOOOOO rail today .