NHL ML fave has won 79%

[rkelly110]

Did a back check on the ML fave of the day in NHL.

Days with 4 or more teams playing, the fav with odds -166 and higher is
38-10 79% and has won the last 13 days in a row. Includes two or more
teams with the same odds.

Using the same team on -PL is at 52%.

High juice yes, but very good for the soul, for those who like to win.

GL guys.

[BigDofBA]

Where did you get that info??

Vancouver was -210 last night and lost.

They also lost as a heavy favorite a few days ago to Columbus.

Betting heavy favorite in the NHL will get you burried.

[rkelly110]

San Jose -212 was at my book and won.

Chicago was the play last night and won.

I do printouts of NHL from my book, BetUS and went back and checked them.
Betting the heavy fav could do that, but the winning is more fun. Now 14 in a row.

[rkelly110]

15 in a row with San Jose again last night. Betting to win $100, you would be up $1500,
the last 15 days.

[a4u2fear]

Where did you get that info??

Vancouver was -210 last night and lost.

They also lost as a heavy favorite a few days ago to Columbus.

Betting heavy favorite in the NHL will get you burried.

Of course they don't all win. If the win pct is better than the price you will be positive

[815Sox]

Of course they don't all win. If the win pct is better than the price you will be positive

That would be pretty awesome if they did always win. That PL percentage is very interesting. Hitting those + odds at 52 percent would be very nice.

[On the come]

How far back does your data sample go?

[rkelly110]

From the start of this season.

I look at this kind of stuff as an investment. I look at what I'm getting from my bank on my
savings,.5%? Even if you bet a ML @ 1.02 decimal, you're making 2 cents for every dollar bet.
You will probably win 99.9% of your bets. That's a hell of a lot better than the .5%.

This is the longest streak so far of 15. It's been streaky. From the beginning of the year:
W L
4-1
5-3
1-2
7-1
4-1
1-1
2-1
15-0

As you can see, chasing would be a good idea.
The odds haven't gone higher than -226 (1.43)

[Avenger]

Thanks! Good info!

[rkelly110]

Wow, early Christmas presents? This shit is getting out of hand.

16 in a row with Vancouver last night? Damn!

I see no plays tonight, nothing over -166. Winnipeg is close, but no cigar.

[nammertl]

i think it just makes sense that the favorite would win the majority of the time. And it's apparently more true of hockey just because there are so many games in a season.

What is the record for teams that have odds below -166.

[nammertl]

Wow, you saved yourself a little bit tonight.

[rkelly110]

The trick is to find one game. There would be too many games below -166.
One loss would set you back two wins, that's the bad thing about this.

If you wanted to also bet on the -PL, I sometimes do this if after capping
the game and looks good, I'll bet to win 2 units on the ML and bet one unit
on the -PL. If the -PL loses, you're up one unit. If they both lose, that hurts.

[Cicima6709]

Blindly betting a system like this is a great way to lose your entire bankroll very, very fast. You may hit some great streaks, like you are now. But over the course of a season, or maybe multiple seasons, you will be broke.

The only way that a system can work is if it takes into account the price of the game. You are saying you dont care what the odds are, you play them. I wish you luck, but i am telling you, blindly picking teams like this is a sure way to go broke long term. How do you know the true value of the -220s you are getting isnt really -195? That would be a system, something that tells you a line and then you compare it to the real line. You'v hit a nice stretch, but i promise you, if you just blindly pick teams that have really high juice...you will lose all your money after a long period of time.

[rkelly110]

Thanks for your input Cicima. I understand what you're saying. The trick is to jump
on trends and exploit them. As you know, what goes up must come down. With a
run like this, I'm expecting a big drop.

Tonight's play is San Jose. GL

[Cicima6709]

While I would agree with you about jumping on trends, this isn't really a hot or cold type trend. It's not like you are betting on a team that is riding a winning streak or can't score a goal to save their life. You are blindly betting on whichever team the books choose for you, whether it's good or horrible value.

I'm glad to see you made money on this so far, but be very careful. -200s hit at -200 or so over a very large number of plays. If you are currently hitting at 95% or w.e...that's going to balance out at some point. Just be careful, that's all.

[PStrangers]

I'll only say this once.

Systems that do not factor in the odds of a game, will never be profitable in the long run.

Now, I'm not saying you shouldn't bet the favorite. There are many many times where their is plenty of expected value betting a favorite, even a heavy favorite. But, certainly teams always get over-bet. The Canucks are a great example of this. Lines man need to make the line very low, otherwise they would get way to much one-sided action.

In my opinion, the best way is to try to predict the odds of a side winning, and turning that into a money line, and then bet accordingly. For instance tonight I have that the Blackhawks have at 69.2% of winning (according to my model), which should be a line of -225, but they are currently at -175, showing value for betting them. But the Sharks only have a 63% chance of winning making the line -170, but the line is -190, meaning there is no value. Now my model is far far FAR from perfect, if it was, I wouldn't be on this forum, I'd be sitting on yacht with all the money I won from the bookies.

Because my model is not perfect, I've found 'confirming' line movement to be a good indicator. For instance, last night I calculated the Blues have a 64.6% chance of winning, making the line -182. When I saw it open at -115 and quickly drop to -135 I knew that in fact my model prediction was correct, and I bet it. But for instance for the Blackhawks, making the line at -225, but the line opened at -185 and dropped to -175. Someone out there likes Canadians, perhaps they have a better model, perhaps they have a better 'situational statics' which makes them know the Blackhawks will have trouble tonight, or perhaps they have 'insider' information (injury, etc.) that makes them like Canadians.

Regardless of what 'system' ends up working for each individual, it must incorporate the actually odds that are getting laid. My good friend and I have very different systems, in fact it is not uncommon for us to be on the opposite sides of a game, despite lengthy discussions over odds, models, etc. But year after year we both make money. So I'm not trying to talk you off betting favorites, there are often times there is good expected value on them. I'm simply trying to convince you to take your handicapping to the next level, and you'll really start killing the book!

[nammertl]

5-0 in the first for San Jose, looks like you're right again and I'm gonna cash.

I have to wonder about the chances of parlaying all the -166 odds on any given night.

[ebbearsfb1]

so for the past 16-17 days the highest juice play has one correct?

cool stuff

[rkelly110]

Hi guys, another winner! Cool! 17-0 last qualifying days.

I know everything you guys are saying and thank you for the well wishes.

I cap every game and assign a number to each team. I don't blindly bet on the odds.

My capping consists of: W/L record, Home/Away record, (from yahoo sched.) the rest I get
from SBR game match ups. I look at money won, fave and dog w/l record which team has
the most arrows, look at trends if one team has a better home or away when playing each
other, look at head to head match ups. I assign stars to the better stats, add them up.
The team with the most stars is the one I think will win.

Last night, my picks went 4-1. The one game was tied when I capped. San Jose was an 8-0
star pick.

I use what I wrote above, in every sport. You can learn a lot from the SBR match ups.

Yes nammertl, I've bet 2 team parlays with the 2 best faves. That's a plus money prop,
that would be excellent for a labby.

Let's break it down for SJ/ Tampa.

Tampa 14-18 (w/l) 6-13 (away record) 8-11 (dog) 4-6 (when playing SJ, H to H) 2.6 (avg) 0 stars.

SJ 17-13* 10-7* 15-11* (fave) arrows* 4-1* (at home against Tampa) 6-4* 3.3* (avg) +.7* (subtract from 2.6) 8 stars.

The most star plays work best on faves, you will get better stars on dogs too. Some win some don't.

I print out the entire days plays and save them for future reference. You can learn a lot from going back and see what works or not.

Picking your own games instead of paying someone or blindly following, is good for your confidence and your betting bank.

Merry Christmas to everyone.

[odog11]

I'll only say this once. Systems that do not factor in the odds of a game, will never be profitable in the long run. Now, I'm not saying you shouldn't bet the favorite. There are many many times where their is plenty of expected value betting a favorite, even a heavy favorite. But, certainly teams always get over-bet. The Canucks are a great example of this. Lines man need to make the line very low, otherwise they would get way to much one-sided action. In my opinion, the best way is to try to predict the odds of a side winning, and turning that into a money line, and then bet accordingly. For instance tonight I have that the Blackhawks have at 69.2% of winning (according to my model), which should be a line of -225, but they are currently at -175, showing value for betting them. But the Sharks only have a 63% chance of winning making the line -170, but the line is -190, meaning there is no value. Now my model is far far FAR from perfect, if it was, I wouldn't be on this forum, I'd be sitting on yacht with all the money I won from the bookies. Because my model is not perfect, I've found 'confirming' line movement to be a good indicator. For instance, last night I calculated the Blues have a 64.6% chance of winning, making the line -182. When I saw it open at -115 and quickly drop to -135 I knew that in fact my model prediction was correct, and I bet it. But for instance for the Blackhawks, making the line at -225, but the line opened at -185 and dropped to -175. Someone out there likes Canadians, perhaps they have a better model, perhaps they have a better 'situational statics' which makes them know the Blackhawks will have trouble tonight, or perhaps they have 'insider' information (injury, etc.) that makes them like Canadians. Regardless of what 'system' ends up working for each individual, it must incorporate the actually odds that are getting laid. My good friend and I have very different systems, in fact it is not uncommon for us to be on the opposite sides of a game, despite lengthy discussions over odds, models, etc. But year after year we both make money. So I'm not trying to talk you off betting favorites, there are often times there is good expected value on them. I'm simply trying to convince you to take your handicapping to the next level, and you'll really start killing the book!

Wednesday: 1-2 (-2.2 Units) Season: 158-126-13 (+62.08 Units) Nice hit with the Avalanche last night, and a clear miss with the Red Wings. The night turned with the Flyers/Stars getting 3 goals in the first period yet not finding a way over the 5.5 total. That's the difference between a winning and losing day right there. Back at it today... Maple Leafs -135 (2.7 Units to win 2 Units) Islanders/Rangers Over 5.5 +110 (2 Units to win 2.2 Units) Panthers/Senators Over 5.5 +120 (2 Units to win 2.4 Units) Blue Jackets +160 (2 Units to win 3.2 Units) Wild +108 (2 Units to win 2.16 Units) Wild/Oilers Over 5 -110 (2.2 Units to win 2 Units) Canadiens +115 (2 Units to win 2.3 Units) Ducks +157 (2 Units to win 3.14 Units) 8 plays today, 6 of em at plus money... I realize this might not be a very popular card with many of you. I'll answer questions you guys have if you'd like. Best of luck to you all

Nice insight and interesting take on the line movement, but just because a line is moving one way don't always assume the other guys have a better model than you. I try to figure out what might be causing the line to move and see if it makes sense. Last night I think Chicago playing back to back was overemphasized, which was not as much of a factor with them having the nest few days off and MTL having a game tonight.

[rkelly110]

Not sure what today's pick is. 3 games are too close. Switching to decimal odds,
Nashville is the fave by 1 point, followed by the Rangers and LA which are tied.

Going by my star system the Rangers have the most stars at 7-0, followed by Nashville
with 6-0 and LA with 2-0.

My play is the Rangers. GL guys.

PS. Minn is a dog play at 7-0 stars.

[jnsbanman]

We calculate things kinda similiar... I too have those 3 plays in that order of strength as well.

[rkelly110]

Cool.

[a4u2fear]

This data is just getting lucky, I can tell you that out of the 1220+ games from last year in my spreadsheet that betting these odds is not a good choice, but rather fading is the better choice

[nammertl]

18-0 now brother. Good thing you didn't go with Minny they're down 2 right now.

[odog11]

18-0 now brother. Good thing you didn't go with Minny they're down 2 right now.

The other two(over 160 favs) LA and Nashville both one, trend on that is sick right now. Not saying it is a long term strategy, but hard to ignore a trend like that. Boston and Vancouver(top fav) on tap tomorrow, both in really good spots(home facing teams playing btb) should cruise and I think I am going to parlay them on the PL. Bruins +150 and Vancouver +120 = +450.

[rkelly110]

Wow, another great night. The odds favored the Rangers closer to game time, but all 3 hit
on ML.

When I get time, I want to see how we would've done from last year. I know we won't
have a streak like this.

[rkelly110]

a4u2fear is right, last year was horrible betting on the fave of -166 and over of 4 or more games.

Only 1 streak of 8 wins and that didn't come until April.

79 wins and 61 losses for 56% all year, a definite bank roll buster.

Goes to show, a system that works one year won't work for the next. Using Morrison's
systems, worked last year, isn't faring too well this year. Same with SB Professor, last year
sucked, this year is doing good. (depending on which sport you chose)

This years NHL fave is kicking ass. Will the bottom fall out? Who knows. From the beginning
of this season, it was off to a good start. Let's see if it continues.

Put a stop loss in, if this goes south. (If you are positive now, quit before going negative.)

Like they say, past performance is not indicative of the future. (or something like that)

[rkelly110]

Looks like a winner odog. The ML odds are way too high.

I'm going with Vancouver on PL also. Their head to head match ups show, Van has a 2.2 pt
avg advantage, compared to Boston who only has a 1.1 advantage.

Most star to 0 fave plays are: Vancouver 7-0, Colorado 6-0, San Jose 6-0 and St Louis 3-0.
For Dec my most star to 0 plays went 34-16 68% Dog star plays went 4-2 67%.

GL

[Scully]

Rkelly are those plays above (Vancouver, Colorado, Sj and Stl) for tonight?

[rkelly110]

Yes

[Scully]

Thanks and bol tonight.

[Bigtoilet]

Not sure what today's pick is. 3 games are too close. Switching to decimal odds,
Nashville is the fave by 1 point, followed by the Rangers and LA which are tied.

Going by my star system the Rangers have the most stars at 7-0, followed by Nashville
with 6-0 and LA with 2-0.

My play is the Rangers. GL guys.

PS. Minn is a dog play at 7-0 stars.

Now THIS is WINNING!!!

[rkelly110]

Finally lost with Vancouver last night. The streak has ended. Good thing I bet on the PL
which saved a bunch.

The star system hit 3 of 4 which produced a unit+ profit. I'll take that for an early present.

How 'bout it Scully!

Sorry about the parlay odog.

Thanks bigtoilet!