Mebaran's Penalty Box

[mebaran]

Yesterday's plays went 3-1-1, +2.20 units

Overall: 25-19-2, -1.70 units


Will have plays for today in a little bit.

[mebaran]

Flyers -120
PHI/CAR Over 5.5 (-115), 2 units
BUF/MON Under 5 (+115)

That's all for today.
on everyone's plays.

[jer_33]

The Philly/Carolina game is one that would be begging me to hedge some puckline.

If it would cost me .56 to win a full unit on the m/l(-125), I shoot for a half-unit on the p/l (.22,+225) and push the remainder on the m/l (.34).

Effectively, I'm still positive money on the m/l, but get a nice kick if the p/l hits.

Wondering if there is a way to make those bets even more efficient, but don't have the math skills.

[mebaran]

The Philly/Carolina game is one that would be begging me to hedge some puckline.

If it would cost me .56 to win a full unit on the m/l(-125), I shoot for a half-unit on the p/l (.22,+225) and push the remainder on the m/l (.34).

Effectively, I'm still positive money on the m/l, but get a nice kick if the p/l hits.

Wondering if there is a way to make those bets even more efficient, but don't have the math skills.

The PL is still +EV, but it isn't as much. I have the Flyers ML at ~10% +EV and the Flyers PL at ~7% +EV. So for every dollar you wager on the PL as opposed to the ML, you are losing about 3 cents in estimated value. Fairly sure that since the PL is juiced more heavily (usually 30-50 points), you're losing out on ML value (juiced about 10-30 points).

Regardless, on your plays.

[mebaran]

"The Blackhawks are in a groove, at least offensively, as they won their third straight game Sunday night after going winless in the previous three to take over the top spot in the NHL standings."

#1 in this week's power rankings through ESPN.

#BarryMelroseisright <---(He predicted a Chicago Stanley Cup before the season)
#OneGoal

[Romanov]

Good luck today.

[mebaran]

Good luck today.

Thank you, sir. To you as well.

[bhssoccer89]

loving the blackhawks play so far this year, i hope they keep it up

[mebaran]

Looks like I'll have to wait on bringing out the broom AGAIN. The Sabres played an excellent 3rd period to tie it up 2-2, and now they are in a shootout. Regardless of outcome, we will draw the under 5 play.

Today's action: 2-0-1, +3.00 units

Overall: 27-19-3, +1.30 units

[mebaran]

These are early for me, but I had a very non-busy schedule today...so he are my plays for Nov. 15th:

PHX/TOR o5½ (-115)
New York Rangers -150
New York Islanders u5 (+115)
Minnesota Wild -135
Boston Bruins -200 (2 units)
NYJ/BOS u5 (+110)
Pittsburgh Penguins -185
DET/STL u5 (+115)
Dallas Stars -140
Calgary Flames -155

Hope everyone did well today. Let's see if we can get one of those brooms out for once...would be a hell of a day.

[mebaran]

Well...I wasn't in the red today :

5-5-0, +0.05 units

Overall: 32-24-3, +1.35 units

Will have tomorrow's plays in a little before game time like usual.

[DennisGreen]

Canucks/Hawks tomorrow. You fcukers are going down! No Luongo tomorrow for your guaranteed 3+ goals

[mebaran]

Canucks/Hawks tomorrow. You fcukers are going down! No Luongo tomorrow for your guaranteed 3+ goals

, sure DG...whatever you say. All I know is we're number one on the charts, and number one in the public's hearts!

Side note: I wonder if there is a prop that there will/won't be a 5 minute major for fighting? Nucks plays dirty and have no class...so I'd bet yes on that prop.

[mebaran]

LOS ANGELES u5 (EV) 2 units
BUFFALO -180
MONTREAL -130
LOS ANGELES -160
BUFFALO u5+115
CHI/VAN o5½-115
VANCOUVER -125

As much as I hate to admit it, I think the Blackhawks start their Canadian road trip with a loss up in Couver...or at least that's what my model tells me....

Will stick with what my model spits out. Money first, THEN rooting for my home team.

tonight, everyone (and most importantly DG and his nucks)

[DennisGreen]

, sure DG...whatever you say. All I know is we're number one on the charts, and number one in the public's hearts! Side note: I wonder if there is a prop that there will/won't be a 5 minute major for fighting? Nucks plays dirty and have no class...so I'd bet yes on that prop.

LOS ANGELES u5 (EV) 2 units BUFFALO -180 MONTREAL -130 LOS ANGELES -160 BUFFALO u5+115 CHI/VAN o5½-115 VANCOUVER -125 As much as I hate to admit it, I think the Blackhawks start their Canadian road trip with a loss up in Couver...or at least that's what my model tells me.... Will stick with what my model spits out. Money first, THEN rooting for my home team. tonight, everyone (and most importantly DG and his nucks)

Daniel Carcillo? Dave Bolland? Might bet penalty in first 4:59 prop. Carcillo going after Lapierre for sure if they're out there together

[mebaran]

Daniel Carcillo? Dave Bolland? Might bet penalty in first 4:59 prop. Carcillo going after Lapierre for sure if they're out there together

[mebaran]

I think I am obligated to post this...hahahaha:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DMLFOGvur8

[mebaran]

Lost money on the Hawks game.....but weeeeee what a game. Hawks win an important one. Great morale boost for the rest of the roadtrip

Today's results: 4-3-0, +0.95 units...that makes 3 positive days in a row. Though small, I will ALWAYS take these days.

Overall: 36-27-3, +2.30 units

Will have my plays for tomorrow up around midday.

[mebaran]

Plays for today, Nov. 17th:

Bruins -230 (2 units)....I actually have the "fair" line at over -400...
Canadiens -110
PHX/PHI over 5.5 (-125)
Penguins -135
Maple Leafs +150
Wild -135
Oilers -130
LA/ANA Under 5 (+105)
Kings -105

Large card tonight, let's get it on!

[mebaran]

Yesterday's action went 3-6-0, -3.00 units. Was pretty much a blowout night, even my LA/ANA under looked pretty good and then got blown up with 5 goals in the 3rd period. Oh well, we move on.

Overall record: 39-33-3, -0.70 units

Will have today's plays shortly...

[mebaran]

Nov 18th Plays:

Sabres -135
Sabres -1.5 (+210)
Blackhawks -125
Stars -120

Doubling up on the Sabres. Carolina is giving up almost 3.5 goals per game...so there's a good chance the Buffalo can win by 2.

today everyone.

[mebaran]

Today went 1-3-0, -2.45 units


Overall: 40-36-3, -3.15 units

[mebaran]

Plays for Nov. 19th:

DET/LA u5 (+130)
WAS/TOR o5½ (-120)
NY RANGERS +1½ (-300)
NY RANGERS -105 <---I believe we have a false favorite here
NYR/MON u5 (EV)
BOSTON -160 (2 units)
BOSTON -1½+195
NASHVILLE -205 (2 units)
NASHVILLE -1½+150
STL/MIN u5 (+105)
MINNESOTA +1½ (-270)
MINNESOTA +110 <----and here as well
CHICAGO -1½+230
CHI/EDM o5½ (+120)


, everyone!

[mebaran]

Yesterday went 7-5-1, -0.90 units

Overall: 47-41-4, -4.05 units

[mebaran]

My Plays for today:


TOR/CAR o5½ (-105)
TORONTO +140
TORONTO +1½ (-225)
SAN JOSE -1½ (+220)
SAN JOSE -135
DETROIT -125
VANCOUVER -180 (2 units)
VANCOUVER -1½ (+165)
OTT/VAN o5½ (-115)

I actually think there's a ton of value today in only 4 games. Good to everyone!

[mebaran]

Sunday's plays went 5-4-0, +3.00 units

Overall: 52-45-4, -1.05 units

Will have plays for tomorrow around midday....won't sleep much tonight because my boy Jay Cutler broke his thumb in today's game and now the Bears are gonna have a tough season....

[mebaran]

Plays for Nov. 21st:

PHILADELPHIA -1½ (+155)
PHILADELPHIA -200
PHI/CAR o6 (EV)
PITTSBURGH -215 (2 units)
PITTSBURGH -1½ (+145)
CALGARY -110
CALGARY -1½ (+250)
BOSTON -135
FLORIDA -115

Really like the Flames tonight off of a big win against Chicago...this is one of those teams that can surprise people. Also, I'm taking a chance in the Flyers game that it will go over 6 (I project 6.6 goals)..at even money I think it's worth a shot, as the Flyers can explode on any given night.

tonight, gentlemen.

[odog11]

Like the card except for that over, Carolina not likely to score much and will be working hard to slow the game down and keep it a low scoring affair.

[mebaran]

Like the card except for that over, Carolina not likely to score much and will be working hard to slow the game down and keep it a low scoring affair.

True, and the opening line movement tends to agree with this statement..however, in two games against each other this year they have scored 14 goals. Plus...it's the Hurricanes here...even when their defense tries to make it a "low scoring affair"..how successful are they?

At any rate, should be a great night of hockey...the chosen one is back, correct? lol...Penguin waddle time

[mebaran]

Today's action went 4-4-1, +0.35 units

Overall: 56-49-5, -0.70 units

[mebaran]

I only have a pair of plays today, and will most likely have a giant card tomorrow. Not much value today:


TOR/TB o5½ (-125)
NASHVILLE -180

[mebaran]

Today went 1-1-0, -0.80 units

Overall: 57-50-5. -1.50 units

Going to have a ton of plays around lunch time tomorrow pending my lunch break at work!

[mebaran]

Plays for today, Nov. 23rd:

BOSTON -125
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +185
STL/PIT u5½-125
MONTREAL +105
MONTREAL +1½ -265
NY RANGERS +1½-265
NASHVILLE +1½-260
DALLAS +1½-275
PHOENIX -155
PHOENIX -1½ +200
VANCOUVER -125
VANCOUVER -1½ +230
VAN/COL o5½ -115
SAN JOSE -140
CHI/SJ o5½-120
SAN JOSE -1½+210

Here goes nothing!

[mebaran]

Today's action went 12-4-0, +10.00 units

Overall: 69-54-5, +8.50 units

INSANE night of hockey...I don't think I've ever seen so many overtime/shootout games.....almost another one too with the Blackhawks there at the end.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Will have plays after the break!

[mebaran]

Just a heads up for today (11/25):

I will be posting my plays about 5-10 minutes before each game because I am currently winning the weekly NHL handicapping contest. I apologize if you are tailing and need more heads up, but I figure you will understand. This may last a few days until the contest ends on Sunday, we will see and I will keep you posted.

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving....time to go Black Friday shopping in about 20 minutes. Found a 50" plasma 1080p for $600....