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  • sbcash
    SBR Rookie
    • 11-02-11
    • 28

    #456
    would you prefer mindless hyping of a system that is guaranteed to be -EV in the long run?

    Originally posted by pm9964
    negativity is not needed or necessary man
    Comment
    • mebaran
      SBR MVP
      • 09-16-09
      • 1540

      #457
      Not trying to be condescending or negative, but I want to raise a few red flags for those that are tailing SMT's plays:

      1) He isn't posting the price he's getting anymore (meaning he can claim profit whenever it's close without proof)
      2) He is posting games that have already finished (granted, this could be an honest mistake).

      Sorry SMT, this system seems like a good angle on the surface, but the amount of juice you lay means if you don't hit at least around 75%, you have a losing night. So an 8-4 record for the night means that, depending on the juice you laid, you could lose money.

      I hope you understand that I post this only as a disclaimer for those that are tailing you. Please consider that too.

      on your future plays, smt.
      Comment
      • spankmythighs
        SBR MVP
        • 01-26-10
        • 2884

        #458
        After making a tidy profit from this, it is time to shut er' down. Time to lay off the juice for a while. If anything I will be doing parlays only. Thanks for all of your input guys.
        sbr
        Comment
        • BernardMadoff
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 12-12-09
          • 6679

          #459
          Originally posted by spankmythighs
          After making a tidy profit from this, it is time to shut er' down. Time to lay off the juice for a while. If anything I will be doing parlays only. Thanks for all of your input guys.
          No offense but this happens, new to betting? There are no shortcuts, after you find parlays not as profitable and too hard to hit both games enough, you will become even wiser and find that single bets are the way to go. Good luck.
          Comment
          • Riceboi
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-03-11
            • 857

            #460
            i still think this has potential. I think playing all the games isn't the way to go though. I think making a couple parlays with 2 or 3 teams could still be profitable.
            Comment
            • slay81
              SBR Rookie
              • 11-08-11
              • 46

              #461
              I think making a couple parlays with 2 or 3 teams could still be profitable.
              I AM WITH YOU ON THAT
              Comment
              • Riceboi
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-03-11
                • 857

                #462
                Originally posted by slay81
                I think making a couple parlays with 2 or 3 teams could still be profitable.
                I AM WITH YOU ON THAT
                yeah like put your strongest leans in parlays.
                Comment
                • Coach Potato
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-31-11
                  • 4303

                  #463
                  So ur done? Are u still gonna post parlays?
                  Comment
                  • pickemtowinem
                    Restricted User
                    • 03-03-11
                    • 1446

                    #464
                    for tonight I didn't post this, but will share here:

                    Rangers/Islanders o4.5 (-240) + leafs/coyotes o4.5 (-350) + nash/wash u6.5 (-225) + bruins/devils o4.5 (-210)

                    $25 pays $72.09

                    This has been profitable since I started following spanky's methods.
                    Thank you spanky!
                    Comment
                    • sharkbite8
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 09-16-11
                      • 466

                      #465
                      Originally posted by spankmythighs
                      Picks are on their way. Let me clarify something, when I started doing this I was just using the total GF/GA for all of a teams games because their was only a small sample of games. Now that teams have played more home and away games, I am focusing more on what their average is when playing at home or when playing away. It was never really a system as it was just taking advantage of extra points based on averages. Last night for instance we would have been 3-0 by using GFA/GAA and GFH/GAH. With my original system we would have been 2-1 but we were 2-1 anyways. Hope everyone understands.
                      Oh and if you don't understand, GFA-goals for away, GAA-goals against away, GFH-goals for home, and GAH-goals against home.

                      Isn't GFA-Avg goals scored per game, not goals for away. GAA is Avg goals allowed per game, not goals against away.

                      I've never seen the acronym GFH or GAH.
                      Comment
                      • sharkbite8
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 09-16-11
                        • 466

                        #466
                        Originally posted by BernardMadoff
                        No offense but this happens, new to betting? There are no shortcuts, after you find parlays not as profitable and too hard to hit both games enough, you will become even wiser and find that single bets are the way to go. Good luck.
                        I agree that single lines are the way to go. However, with this strategy you have to go PL. Otherwise the ratio to payout becomes to deep at under 6.5 or over 4.5.

                        Interesting concept none the less, and I'm sure it's been done before. I'm just curious to what it looks like spread out over a season. Also, when you get to an avg of 5.45 do you stay away or go u/o?
                        Comment
                        • thepuru
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 11-13-11
                          • 22

                          #467
                          I hit a couple of small parlays the last couple of days following the system. I'm interested in this system and am very curious to see how it would look like over the remainder of the season.

                          I've created a spreadsheet that pulls the data from NHL.com, and I have set it up so you choose the two teams and it will automatically give you the value and the prediction (OVER 4.5, UNDER 6.5 etc..)

                          I know this is not something that will be accurate in the long run but it's got me very curious. If anyone is interested in the spreadsheet let me know, I have it it on Google Docs so it's easy to share.
                          Comment
                          • pickemtowinem
                            Restricted User
                            • 03-03-11
                            • 1446

                            #468
                            Originally posted by pickemtowinem
                            for tonight I didn't post this, but will share here:

                            Rangers/Islanders o4.5 (-240) + leafs/coyotes o4.5 (-350) + nash/wash u6.5 (-225) + bruins/devils o4.5 (-210)

                            $25 pays $72.09

                            This has been profitable since I started following spanky's methods.
                            Thank you spanky!

                            Thank you Spanky again! Ill start posting these more often in my thread. They have been hitting well for me too.
                            abundant thanks!

                            Comment
                            • Ryencee
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 10-18-11
                              • 86

                              #469
                              Originally posted by pickemtowinem
                              for tonight I didn't post this, but will share here:

                              Rangers/Islanders o4.5 (-240) + leafs/coyotes o4.5 (-350) + nash/wash u6.5 (-225) + bruins/devils o4.5 (-210)

                              $25 pays $72.09

                              This has been profitable since I started following spanky's methods.
                              Thank you spanky!
                              Great call and tailed ya! Keep it up
                              Comment
                              • pickemtowinem
                                Restricted User
                                • 03-03-11
                                • 1446

                                #470
                                This is what I got for tonight:

                                Habs/Hurricanes u6.5 (-250) + devils/sabers u6 (-240) + blackhawks/canucks u6.5 (-175) + ducks/kings u6 (-230)

                                $20 pays $69.43
                                Comment
                                • Coach Potato
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-31-11
                                  • 4303

                                  #471
                                  u not even posting parlays anymore then?
                                  Comment
                                  • NHL Pro Capper
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 07-06-11
                                    • 604

                                    #472
                                    Cause some of you losers complain about one night when he loses, or try to find someway to bring him down, don't blame him one bit, fking haters
                                    Comment
                                    • Coach Potato
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-31-11
                                      • 4303

                                      #473
                                      I hope ur not talking about me.
                                      Comment
                                      • dima2240
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 12-15-10
                                        • 405

                                        #474
                                        thanks man.i defenetly will try to do it like that.thanks.
                                        Comment
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