2011/2012 Hockey season

guil0000 · 09-28-11, 12:14 PM

Season bet,

Ottawa Senators Under 84.5 Points -115, 2.5* (Sportsbetting)

As much as I hate betting against my team, I love money way more and can't believe I can get this line. Where to start here...

It's pretty clear this team is in full rebuild mode now. They dropped the excess baggage at the trade deadline last year (Kovalev, Fisher, Kelly, Campoli). Now they replace all those players with a bunch of rookies. They do have some pretty decent ones that showed last year that they have skill. Butler, Greening, Condra, Smith all looked decent last year. But they were playing for a team already out of the playoffs with no pressure. This year they will have bigger roles in a hockey nation and there's no telling how they will respond. On top of that you have to rely on a top line that has 3 uncertain players there. Alfredsson is getting older, Spezza is a enigma and Michalek has been injured a lot and under performing since joining the sens.

But even with all those uncertainties what worries me the most about this team is their blue line. I don't think there's a worst defensive blue line out there this year. Except for Phillips there is no one good in their own end. Gonchar was a mistake, Kuba looks awfull and they couldn't even give him away this off season. Karlsson has tons of upsides but was -30 last year. Lee never paned out has they thought. They have Runblad who I think will be very good in the future but unlikely this year.

Even If Anderson plays good ( which is also uncertain). The blue line won't give him much support. Add the fact that they play in the northeast in which Boston and Montreal haven't lost much and Buffalo and Toronto got better. I think this is pretty close to a sure shot. Overall the east has gotten better as a whole so there needs to be teams that Regress or stay the same and I think Ottawa is more than likely to do so.

guil0000 · 09-28-11, 09:59 PM

Season bet

Washington Capitals Over 101.5 Points, 2.5* (Sportsbetting)

The Capitals ended up with 107 points last year. They still made that number of points despite the changes they made in the middle of the season to play more defensively and also the whole HBO build up in which they went in a pretty big slump around that time. Now we can get a 5 point cushion with a better goaltender. Vokoun was the steal of the summer without a doubt. He has been largely forgotten for a lot of years because he played for the pathetic Panthers (in which I'm not sure I buy the whole free agent frenzy they did this year). His save pct has not been under .919 since the lockout. The other additions will add grit to the club and they have a bunch of talent. Ovechkin looks like a man on a mission and should be the favorites to win the east again. The PP will also benefit from Green who is healthy. Getting 101.5 is a gift and I will gladly take it.

Let's look at their division now, Tampa Bay as lost their deceptiveness as everyone knows that they are a good team now, I wouldn't be surprise to see a small drop from last year. Carolina should be around the same as last year as they depend on young guys a lot. Winnipeg has a pretty awful traveling schedule that should take it's toll at the end of the season and the Panthers are a bunch of new guys that will take some time to gel if they ever do.

Getting 101.5 is a gift and I will gladly take it.

guil0000 · 09-29-11, 10:57 AM

Season bet

St Louis Blues Over 84.5 points -115, 2.5* (Sportsbetting)

The blues finished last year with 87 points. That's pretty good considering they were probably the most injured team in the nhl last year. Perron, Oshie, Mcdonald, Polak and even Halak all missed significant time. This team as really good talent spread out on all the team. They have a tough to play against talented duo in Stewart and Backes. Then they have Mcdonald, Steen, Berglund (who is starting to show signs of the true potential he has), Oshie, Perron ( who might play later this year) and even D'Agostini who had a good season last year. They also added Langenbrunner and Arnott who will bring experience on the team. On the back end they have talented duo of Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk who should ancher the powerplay and post some good numbers. they also have veteran Jackman and Polak who should stabilize things. Halak struggled a bit last year and if the blues want to make the playoffs he will have to play better but we know he is capable of that playing lights out for the Habs 2 seasons ago.

The only thing that scares me a little about this bet is the division they play in. I think it's the best in the nhl. I think Detroit should regress a little but other then that all the other teams still seems solid. But, I also think a lot of teams in the western conference has gotten worst this year and I think 85 points should be pretty easy for this team if they can stay healthy.

guil0000 · 09-30-11, 11:03 AM

Season bet

Phoenix Coyotes Under 94.5 points -115, 2* (Sportsbetting)

The Coyotes have made the playoffs in 2 straight year while many experts thought they would have a regression last year. The reason for the Coyotes success is in no way due to their talent. It's a Tippett system combined with a good goaltender that has worked very well. Unfortunately the team lost their biggest asset this off season because Bryzgalov signed a big contract for the Flyers. I'm not sure Smith is the answer in net to replace Bryzgalov. He has been inconsistent all the years he's been starting in net. The Coyote's forwards are mediocre at best and should struggle to score. They do have pretty decent D but I doubt it will be enough.

When you take a closer look at last year's numbers we can see that Phoenix finished 6th in the west with 99 points but when you take a closer look we can see that they only had a +5 goal differential which was the worst in the playoff teams in the west. That means they won a great number of close games. That was with Bryzgalov in net one of the best goaltenders in the league. That is likely to drop with Smith.

We are getting a good number here at 94.5 points and we will gladly take it. Let's also not forget the whole ownership, moving situation in Phoenix.

BlindBeggar · 09-30-11, 12:58 PM

I like your bets.

Not sure about the Blues Over, too close for me.

Vegas39 · 09-30-11, 01:02 PM

Good luck,really like the Phoenix and Ottawa bets

guil0000 · 10-01-11, 12:15 PM

Thanks guys I had a few more leans but Sportsbetting adjusted their lines today, I do have 1 more probable play for team points. I do have this one I just locked in

Season bet

Tavares will score more goals than Ladd -110, 2* (The Greek)
75 minimum games must be played by both players

They did score the same number of goals last year but you have to consider that Tavares is only playing it's third season and is on a very good offensive team in the Islanders. I don't think the casual fan knows hoe good this team is offensively. Tavares is one of the most best young players out there and I really believe we will see some good numbers from him this year. Don't get me wrong I really like Ladd as a player but I think he's more of a very good two way forward and I think the 30 goal mark is his plateau. We get the player with the more offensive upside here for even money. I will gladly take it for 2 units

guil0000 · 10-03-11, 12:21 AM

Season bet

Detroit Red Wings Under 48.5 wins -105, 1* (pinnacle)

Detroit is arguably the best team in the last decade in the nhl. They have put together year after year good teams on the ice. But I think we should see a normal regression soon. First and most importantly they are getting older. Lidstrom is close to retirement and while he still putted a bunch of points on the board he had his first - season which is alarming. Rafalski who was very solid on the defense retired last year so they brought in White and Commodore to try and replace him but I'm not sure it will work. And then we have Holmstrom and Bertuzzi are in their late 30s.

Last year they got 47 wins while the year before they had 44. Now we expect this older team to pick up 49 wins? This is not an easy task to get that many ones and last year only 2 teams manage to get there. (Pittsburgh and Vancouver). Their goaltending is also a question mark after Howard had a so so season last year after his break through rookie year.

The Wings also play in probably the toughest division in the NHL. We have a healthier Blues then last year. A Hawks team that doesn't have the stanley cup hangover that they had last year. An always tough Nashville team and an improved Jackets team. The wins won't come easy for the Wings.

I think this is without a doubt a playoff team but I doubt they get to 49 wins. I will gladly take the bet for 1 unit

Bs1194 · 10-04-11, 10:38 PM

Looks good. I'll be following you on the reg season. Most of your picks have adjusted too much so I'll hold off on those. Best of luck to us and all those following

guil0000 · 10-04-11, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by Bs1194

Looks good. I'll be following you on the reg season. Most of your picks have adjusted too much so I'll hold off on those. Best of luck to us and all those following

Yeah Sportsbetting adjusted all their lines I had a few more leans on their numbers but I'll have to lay off now. Only a few more days until the season starts, I can't wait to see the opening numbers.

guil0000 · 10-04-11, 11:29 PM

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to win Calder +1900, 0.21* (Unibet)

I wanted to put more but this is all they allowed me to put. Bodog which I think is a way sharper book has this line at 3/1. RN-H wasn't picked 1st overall for nothing. I have heard some scout say this guy has the best vision seen in a long time. I think he plays all year with the team and should have some pretty good ice time playing for a team that is young and talented. I have a nice price on this young kid and I will take it without hesitation.

Line dropped when I put the bet but +1500 is still available. Limit is probably still very low thought.

guil0000 · 10-05-11, 01:50 PM

Unless other wise noted all plays are OT included
Thursday Opening night baby

Pittsburgh +140, 1* (pinnacle)
I'll try and post a small write up later

guil0000 · 10-05-11, 02:04 PM

Philadelphia +129, 1* (pinnacle)

guil0000 · 10-05-11, 07:37 PM

Write up for the Pittsburgh/Vancouver Game

The Canucks will still be a force this year and I expect them to finish in the top of the west. That being said management decided to not play the regulars until late in the preseason. That might do them some good later in the season but I think it might step them back to start the season. If you add the fact that they had a short summer and missing Kesler for the start of the year and I think they could start this opener a bit flat. The Pens have Malkin back and this is a team that finished over 100 points last year without him or Crosby in the line up for the majority of the year. I'm always careful when I back an eastern conference team traveling on the west coast but I think it's irrelevant that early in the year. I also like the fact that while Crosby won't be in the line up he did travel with the team and I think he will get the troops motivated for this one. What sells me this bet is the price, +140 is a bargain with this team and I don't expect to see it too often this year.

guil0000 · 10-05-11, 08:02 PM

Write up for the Philadelphia/Boston game

These should be two good teams this season. The two main reasons I took the Flyers here is the cup hangover and the pretty nice price. There are chemistry concerns with the Flyers with a bunch of new faces up front but they have one of the best blue lines in the league and now they have a reliable goaltender. I ultimately think the Flyers youngsters will be pumped up for this while the bruins might come up flat. I will take the + money on what I feel is a 50/50 game.

guil0000 · 10-06-11, 07:28 PM

Friday

Anaheim +115, 1* (pinnacle)

I think both the Sabres and Anaheim are pretty good teams this year. First and foremost the average Joe might think Buffalo has home ice advantage it's played in Europe so that goes out the window. What I think might be the difference early in the season is chemistry. Anaheim hasn't changed much this off season and are very skilled offensively, the chemistry should be fine. While I think Buffalo will also have a great year with the nice additions they made, I think they might have a few chemistry problem for that same reason. Final reason I like Anaheim is like a few guys mentioned while the east is stronger as a whole I think the top west teams will still dominate the middle and bottom east teams. I think we are getting a nice price on this and I will take it.

guil0000 · 10-06-11, 09:34 PM

Thanks guys!

Friday

Tampa Bay +110, 1* (Pinnacle)

I don't really see a reason why Carolina is favored against the Lightning other then a few team trends which I totally disregard. I see both these teams to be very similar then last year and Tampa Bay is just the better team. They have one of the best coaches out there and you can expect a fast start from them. I watched a pre season game from Stamkos and he looks like a beast early this year. He is still training with Roberts and I have heard he is stronger and faster then last year, that's saying something. I just think the wrong team is favored and will take the bet

guil0000 · 10-07-11, 12:05 AM

Tonight 2-0 +2.69 units
YTD 2-0 +2.69 units

couldn't ask for a better start

Bs1194 · 10-07-11, 02:21 AM

Wow great start

guil0000 · 10-07-11, 08:06 AM

Thanks Bs

guil0000 · 10-07-11, 08:55 AM

Friday

Ottawa +197, 1* (Pinnacle)

As bad a season I think the Sens will have I can see them starting up strong tonight. Maclean, the new Ottawa Head Coach, returns to Detroit to face his old team and you can bet he will get the youngsters in Ottawa pumped up for this. The sens are very young but let's not forget the Sens rookies had some NHL playing time last year and the AHL team won the championship, so these guys has to be matured young guys. Early in the year I like to take younger legs against the older ones as I'm never sure how the older teams will get out of the gates. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are also listed as probable, I expect them to play but I'm not sure they are 100%. Bottom line is we are getting a way too good price early this season for teams we are unsure of how they will get out of the gates.

guil0000 · 10-07-11, 09:41 PM

Tonight 1-2 -0.9 units
YTD 3-2 +1.79 units

guil0000 · 10-07-11, 09:57 PM

Pittsburgh -106, 1* (Pinnacle)

I'm just going with the better team here. Price is probably inflated because it's the Flames opener. I don't quite buy it

guil0000 · 10-08-11, 09:23 AM

Tampa Bay +145, 1* (Bet365)

Tampa are playing back to back but this early in the season I don't think it matters as much. Tampa bay as something to play for also because Boston were the guys that knocked them out last year so you know there will be extra motivation here. I think the price is inflated because Boston is coming off a home lost and everyone thinks they should win here. We are getting a good price for the most motivated team.

guil0000 · 10-08-11, 09:53 AM

Buffalo /Los Angeles Under 5.5 -120, 1* (bet365)

The two teams are traveling from helsinki and Stockholm to play a game in Berlin Germany, a foreign country for most of these players. These teams play in different conference and don't really have any Rivalry. They also both played yesterday, I can't just imagine that their won't be much emotions in this game in front of a neutral crowd. I also like that both these teams won their games yesterday, so the hunger to get that first win won't be there. I like my chances of this under hitting even if i'm not crazy about the juice.

guil0000 · 10-08-11, 01:46 PM

New York Islanders -125, 1* (The Greek)

The Panthers are a bunch of FA put together to try and create a better team. We all saw what that can do over the years with a ton of teams in which it did not work. Even is it does work, it will probably take time before they create chemistry. One other big factor is that they lost their number 1 goaltender for a pile of change. Personally, I don't think it makes much sense to pick up a bunch of FAs and just give away your number 1 goalie (The most important part of a good team) and replace it for Mr inconsistent Theodore. While the panthers are an enigma the Isles should be better. They have talent up front and all the youngsters are 1 year older and what should improve this year is the defense they have a pretty solid top 4 this year with Streit back from injury. They also have something to prove with the hole arena thing on their shoulders this year. I think they come up strong tonight.

guil0000 · 10-09-11, 12:14 AM

Tonight 1-3 -2.45 units
YTD 4-5 -0.66 units

guil0000 · 10-09-11, 09:25 PM

Colorado +219, 0.5* (Pinnacle)
Colorado +1.5 -139, 0.5* (Pinnacle)

I just think the price is way off. Overreaction because the Bruins won their last game while the Avs got shut down. The Avs go on this road trip and should put a solid effort tomorrow. When you lift the cup all the teams want to compare themselves to the best. Today the bruins brought the cup to the Pats game and it's just one more distraction. One more thing is that I believe could care less about this Avs team that finished in the bottom last year and aren't even in the same conference as them. I think we have a good chance to see the Avs catch the Bs off guard and I'll take my chances with this nice ML and PL.

guil0000 · 10-10-11, 08:09 AM

Carolina/New Jersey Over 5 -114, 1* (Pinnacle)

Line jumped a few cents when I was logging in to place the bet but I still like it at this price. I just don't see a good reason for this price to be set at 5 while all the others are at 5.5. Carolina was a good Over team last year and they have basically the same team as they did last year. New Jersey is playing again after being shut out in their first game. I like my chances at this price this early in the year.

guil0000 · 10-10-11, 08:54 AM

St Louis -0.5 (reg) +124, 1* (pinnacle)

815Sox · 10-10-11, 09:14 AM

I like Avs, Hurricanes, Blues in Reg,

815Sox · 10-10-11, 12:43 PM

Avs were easily the better team in the 1st, Rask did well for the Bs. Lets hope the Avs keep this up. I still feel good about Carolina too.

815Sox · 10-10-11, 02:28 PM

Nice Picks, I got on the Canes instead of the over, ohh well cannot win them all. Just need the Blues to hold on for a good afternoon.

guil0000 · 10-10-11, 04:04 PM

Thanks 815, yeah we both had great days. I'd take your 2-1 with 3 dogs any time

. I'm done for the day, I'll watch the final games without any action

Tonight 4-0 +3.83 units
YTD 8-5 +3.17 units