ElCapitan's 2011-2012 NHL Thread

[Kev the Brit]

Last year 2010/11 JM NHL V1 (which is ElCapitan's V1 PL):


Series: 65-1
A Bets: 49-17 - 72% success
B Bets: 10-7 - 58% success
C Bets: 6-1 - 85% success (lost C Bet cost 25 units)

Approx 200 units risked on 90 bets
65 units won
25 units lost
40 units profit
approx 20% growth on investment over 5 month period

My stats for 2009/10 are handwritten and I will post them up as soon as I can find the paperwork

Kev

[ElCapitan]

1/25 Results

V1 Detroit Red Wings (A) ML -147 (1.47 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Detroit Red Wings (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.47 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 50(A)-26(B)-14(C) (-20.54) SERIES: 38-11 (1 pending)
V1 PL: 50(A)-18(B)-4(C) (-77.52) SERIES: 45-4 (1 pending)

V2 ML: 54(A)-31(B)-14(C) (+6.00) SERIES: 45-8 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 54(A)-17(B)-8(C) (-2.63) SERIES: 52-2

[ElCapitan]

For 2009/2010, Here is what I have:

Series: 78-2
A Bets: 56-24 - 70% success
B Bets: 19-5 - 80% success
C Bets: 3-2 - 60% success (2 lost C bets cost 43 units)

37 units won
17 units lost
20 units profit

[ElCapitan]

There are no plays until 1/31.

[ejackson]

Hey guys.
For the last 3 seasons i play this system a bit differently. I bet on both - V1 and V2 plays but i only bet on game A's and game B's and all bets are ML bets. Sometimes i filter worst road teams. For the past two years i ran a two line labby, this year i only have one line. For the record - I didn't came up with this "adjusted" system.

The results:
2009-2010 - over 100 units
2010-2011 - over 60 units
2011-2012 - minus 10 units for now

Not only you don't have to chase for 3 games and pay big juice for +1,5 PL but you acctually make more profit. The result are true, everybody can backtest it. Lets turn this season around.

A friend from Slovenia

[ElCapitan]

1/31 Plays

Ok, let's see if we can get back at this.

V1 Detroit Red Wings (B) ML -140 (3.46 to win 2.47) (5Dimes)
V1 Detroit Red Wings (B) PL (fav, play ML) (3.46 to win 2.47) (5Dimes)

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Chicago Blackhawks (A) ML +123 (1 to win 1.23) (5Dimes)
V2 Chicago Blackhawks(A) PL -235 (2.35 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Washington Capitals (A) ML +118 (1 to win 1.18) (5Dimes)
V2 Washington Capitals(A) PL -245 (2.45 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Winnipeg Jets (C) ML +165 (1.81 to win 2.98) (5Dimes)

[stevex]

2nd half of the season. Time to turn things around fellas.

It will start tonight

[imotiv8]

ejackson has a solid point!

[jcygts6]

Any plays?

[ElCapitan]

1/31 Results

Ok, let's see if we can get back at this.

V1 Detroit Red Wings (B) ML -140 (3.46 to win 2.47) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V1 Detroit Red Wings (B) PL (fav, play ML) (3.46 to win 2.47) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Chicago Blackhawks (A) ML +123 (1 to win 1.23) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Chicago Blackhawks(A) PL -235 (2.35 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Washington Capitals (A) ML +118 (1 to win 1.18) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Washington Capitals(A) PL -245 (2.45 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Winnipeg Jets (C) ML +165 (1.81 to win 2.98) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 50(A)-27(B)-14(C) (-18.07) SERIES: 39-11
V1 PL: 50(A)-19(B)-4(C) (-75.05) SERIES: 46-4

V2 ML: 56(A)-31(B)-15(C) (+6.98) SERIES: 46-8 (2 pending)
V2 PL: 56(A)-17(B)-8(C) (-0.63) SERIES: 54-2

[ElCapitan]

2/1 Plays

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML -115 (1.15 to win 1) (5Dimes)
V2 Pittsburgh Penguins (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.15 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Washington Capitals (B) ML +129 (1.55 to win 2) (5Dimes)

[ElCapitan]

2/1 Results

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Pittsburgh Penguins (A) ML -115 (1.15 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Pittsburgh Penguins (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.15 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Washington Capitals (B) ML +129 (1.55 to win 2) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 50(A)-27(B)-14(C) (-18.07) SERIES: 39-11
V1 PL: 50(A)-19(B)-4(C) (-75.05) SERIES: 46-4

V2 ML: 57(A)-32(B)-15(C) (+4.28) SERIES: 46-8 (3 pending)
V2 PL: 57(A)-17(B)-8(C) (-1.78) SERIES: 54-2 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

2/2 Plays

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Chicago Blackhawks (B) ML -160 (3.2 to win 2) (5Dimes)

V2 Minnesota Wild (A) ML +125 (1 to win 1.25) (5Dimes)
V2 Minnesota Wild (A) PL -230 (2.30 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[ElCapitan]

2/2 Results

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Chicago Blackhawks (B) ML -160 (3.2 to win 2) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Minnesota Wild (A) ML +125 (1 to win 1.25) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Minnesota Wild (A) PL -230 (2.30 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 50(A)-27(B)-14(C) (-18.07) SERIES: 39-11
V1 PL: 50(A)-19(B)-4(C) (-75.05) SERIES: 46-4

V2 ML: 58(A)-33(B)-15(C) (+2.33) SERIES: 47-8 (3 pending)
V2 PL: 58(A)-17(B)-8(C) (-0.78) SERIES: 55-2 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

2/3 Plays

V1 Los Angeles Kings (A) ML +129 (1 to win 1.29) (5Dimes)
V1 Los Angeles Kings (A) PL -235 (2.35 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Chicago Blackhawks (C) ML -115 (5.98 to win 5.2) (5Dimes)

[Aristocles]

Your efforts are appreciated. Thank you.

[jcygts6]

Thanks

[ElCapitan]

2/3 Results

V1 Los Angeles Kings (A) ML +129 (1 to win 1.29) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Los Angeles Kings (A) PL -235 (2.35 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Chicago Blackhawks (C) ML -115 (5.98 to win 5.2) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

Record:
V1 ML: 51(A)-27(B)-14(C) (-19.07) SERIES: 39-11 (1 pending)
V1 PL: 51(A)-19(B)-4(C) (-74.05) SERIES: 47-4

V2 ML: 58(A)-33(B)-16(C) (-3.65) SERIES: 47-9 (2 pending)
V2 PL: 58(A)-17(B)-8(C) (-0.78) SERIES: 55-2 (1 pending)

[ElCapitan]

2/4 Plays

V1 Los Angeles Kings (B) ML -106 (2.12 to win 2) (5Dimes)

V1 St. Louis Blues (A) ML +115 (1 to win 1.15) (5Dimes)
V1 St. Louis Blues (A) PL -260 (2.60 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Pittsburgh Penguins (B) ML +125 (1.72 to win 2.15) (5Dimes)
V2 Pittsburgh Penguins (B) PL -240 (5.16 to win 2.15) (5Dimes)

V2 Vancouver Canucks (A) ML -147 (1.47 to win 1) (5Dimes)
V2 Vancouver Canucks (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.47 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Washington Capitals (C) ML +100 (3.55 to win 3.55) (5Dimes)

[ElCapitan]

2/4 Results

V1 Los Angeles Kings (B) ML -106 (2.12 to win 2) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V1 St. Louis Blues (A) ML +115 (1 to win 1.15) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 St. Louis Blues (A) PL -260 (2.60 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Pittsburgh Penguins (B) ML +125 (1.72 to win 2.15) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Pittsburgh Penguins (B) PL -240 (5.16 to win 2.15) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Vancouver Canucks (A) ML -147 (1.47 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V2 Vancouver Canucks (A) PL (fav, play ML) (1.47 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V2 Washington Capitals (C) ML +100 (3.55 to win 3.55) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 52(A)-28(B)-14(C) (-22.19) SERIES: 39-11 (2 pending)
V1 PL: 52(A)-19(B)-4(C) (-76.65) SERIES: 47-4 (1 pending)

V2 ML: 59(A)-34(B)-17(C) (+3.05) SERIES: 50-9
V2 PL: 59(A)-18(B)-8(C) (+2.37) SERIES: 57-2

[ElCapitan]

There were no plays for Sunday, 2/5.

[ElCapitan]

2/6 Plays

V1 Edmonton Oilers (A) ML +150 (1 to win 1.5) (5Dimes)
V1 Edmonton Oilers (A) PL -195 (1.95 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (A) ML +118 (1 to win 1.18) (5Dimes)
V2 Calgary Flames (A) PL -235 (2.35 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[MARCUS]

thanks elcapitan.

[ElCapitan]

2/6 Results

V1 Edmonton Oilers (A) ML +150 (1 to win 1.5) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Edmonton Oilers (A) PL -195 (1.95 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (A) ML +118 (1 to win 1.18) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Calgary Flames (A) PL -235 (2.35 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 53(A)-28(B)-14(C) (-23.19) SERIES: 39-11 (3 pending)
V1 PL: 53(A)-19(B)-4(C) (-78.60) SERIES: 47-4 (2 pending)

V2 ML: 60(A)-34(B)-17(C) (+2.05) SERIES: 50-9 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 60(A)-18(B)-8(C) (+3.37) SERIES: 58-2

[ElCapitan]

2/7 Plays

V1 Los Angeles Kings (C) ML -107 (4.41 to win 4.12) (5Dimes)

V1 St. Louis Blues (B) ML -111 (2.22 to win 2) (5Dimes)
V1 St. Louis Blues (B) PL (fav, play ML) (4.0 to win 3.60) (5Dimes)

[SlickRick1382]

Quick Question:

I would appreciate some help. Small dilemma. I was trying out my own 3 game chase system for NHL. What do you do when two of the teams you're chasing wind up playing each other? Do you bet both sides and the follow up betting on the loser for the following game to recoup? Do you leave it alone add the money lost from the other team's chase to the losing team's chase going forward? Take the loss and just move on with the losing team?

What do you guys recommend?

[WWSports]

I take the favorite on the moneyline and the dog on the puckline or if I'm not confortable with that scenario, I skip the play and pick up the loser on the next level and carry the loses on the winner of the match to the next several plays.

[ejackson]

Hey guys.
For the last 3 seasons i play this system a bit differently. I bet on both - V1 and V2 plays but i only bet on game A's and game B's and all bets are ML bets. Sometimes i filter worst road teams. For the past two years i ran a two line labby, this year i only have one line. For the record - I didn't came up with this "adjusted" system.

The results:
2009-2010 - over 100 units
2010-2011 - over 60 units
2011-2012 - minus 10 units for now

Not only you don't have to chase for 3 games and pay big juice for +1,5 PL but you acctually make more profit. The result are true, everybody can backtest it. Lets turn this season around.

A friend from Slovenia

For anybody interested - current stats for this method (V1 and V2, A and B bets, ML only):

A: 52-69 (43 %)
B: 33-34 (49 %)
C: 13-21 (38 %) - tracking only, but you can see that C bet has the worst record

This year i made 134 bets - i didn't bet all system bets, because i didn't bet the worst road teams.

Road favourites: 24-13 (65 %)
Road dogs: 40-57 (41 %)

A friend from Slovenia

[ElCapitan]

2/7 Results

V1 Los Angeles Kings (C) ML -107 (4.41 to win 4.12) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V1 St. Louis Blues (B) ML -111 (2.22 to win 2) (5Dimes) *WIN*
V1 St. Louis Blues (B) PL (fav, play ML) (4.0 to win 3.60) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 53(A)-29(B)-15(C) (-17.07) SERIES: 41-11 (1 pending)
V1 PL: 53(A)-20(B)-4(C) (-75.00) SERIES: 48-4 (1 pending)

V2 ML: 60(A)-34(B)-17(C) (+2.05) SERIES: 50-9 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 60(A)-18(B)-8(C) (+3.37) SERIES: 58-2

[ElCapitan]

2/8 Plays

V1 Carolina Hurricanes (A) ML +140 (1 to win 1.4) (5Dimes)
V1 Carolina Hurricanes (A) PL -210 (2.1 to win 1) (5Dimes)

V1 Edmonton Oilers (B) ML +215 (0.47 to win 1) (5Dimes)
V1 Edmonton Oilers (B) PL -140 (4.13 to win 2.95) (5Dimes)

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (B) ML +167 (1.2 to win 2) (5Dimes)

[ElCapitan]

V1 Carolina Hurricanes (A) ML +140 (1 to win 1.4) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Carolina Hurricanes (A) PL -210 (2.1 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

V1 Edmonton Oilers (B) ML +215 (0.47 to win 1) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V1 Edmonton Oilers (B) PL -140 (4.13 to win 2.95) (5Dimes) *LOSS*

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Calgary Flames (B) ML +167 (1.2 to win 2) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 54(A)-30(B)-15(C) (-18.54) SERIES: 41-11 (2 pending)
V1 PL: 54(A)-21(B)-4(C) (-78.13) SERIES: 49-4 (1 pending)

V2 ML: 60(A)-35(B)-17(C) (+4.05) SERIES: 51-9
V2 PL: 60(A)-18(B)-8(C) (+3.37) SERIES: 58-2

[ElCapitan]

2/9 Plays

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Tampa Bay Lightning (A) ML +167 (1 to win 1.67) (5Dimes)
V2 Tampa Bay Lightning (A) PL -172 (1.72 to win 1) (5Dimes)

[ejackson]

Out of interest i did a backtest for some NHL systems. I don't use these systems, i don't know if anybody uses these systems, i was just backtesting the 3 game road chase system and did other system at the same time. I backtested all postlockout seasons (starting with season 05-06) with this years season included. There are some minor mistakes as this was done with paper and pencil but that can't change the %.

1. 3 game road chase (a team goes on a 3 or more road games in a row) - ML bets (NO +1,5 PL!)
A: 492-622 (44 %)
B: 295-325 (48 %)
C: 135-191 (41 %)

2. 3 game road chase - road team will lose one game out of 3 in regulation (that means you bet on home teams - ML bets can get very expensice so i did a backtest on regulation lines)
A: 480-634 (43 %)
B: 263-371 (41 %)
C: 160-212 (43 %)

3. 3 game home chase (a team has 3 or more games at home in a row) - to win one game out of three in regualtion
A: 484-598 (45 %)
B: 267-327 (45 %)
C: 130-201 (39 %)

4. 3 game home chase - to win one game out of three ML
A: 607-474 (56 %)
B: 254-220 (54 %)
C: 114-107 (52 %)

5. 3 game home chase - home team will lose one game out of three
A: 474-608 (44 %)
B: 258-352 (42 %)
C: 129-222 (37 %)

A friend from Slovenia

[ElCapitan]

2/9 Results

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Tampa Bay Lightning (A) ML +167 (1 to win 1.67) (5Dimes) *LOSS*
V2 Tampa Bay Lightning (A) PL -172 (1.72 to win 1) (5Dimes) *WIN*

Record:
V1 ML: 54(A)-30(B)-15(C) (-18.54) SERIES: 41-11 (2 pending)
V1 PL: 54(A)-21(B)-4(C) (-78.13) SERIES: 49-4 (1 pending)

V2 ML: 61(A)-35(B)-17(C) (+3.05) SERIES: 51-9 (1 pending)
V2 PL: 62(A)-18(B)-8(C) (+4.37) SERIES: 59-2

[ElCapitan]

2/10 Plays

V1 Carolina Hurricanes (B) ML +120 (1.67 to win 2) (5Dimes)

V2 Play - tracking only

V2 Anaheim Ducks (A) ML +160 (1 to win 1.6) (5Dimes)
V2 Anaheim Ducks (A) PL -185 (1.85 to win 1) (5Dimes)