Billy's NHL Totals and ML Plays

[BillyPilgrim]

I've been tinkering with a formula for calculating NHL totals that uses a Poisson Distribution model and it's been running OK so far this season - 57% on Totals, just under 54% on ML bets, 56% on Grand Salami bets. Not making me rich, but running OK and always trying to improve and better work out units.

So, I've decided to start posting the picks here to track, feel free to tail, fade or ignore. I am probably a day late, as I was 5-1 yesterday including hitting the PHX-NYR Draw @ +310. I'm sure now that I'm posting them I'll immediately go 0 for the next 20.

Anyway, here we go:

TOTALS

DET-CHI u5.5 +100 1unit Win

ML

FLO +110 1 unit Win

GRAND SALAMI

Home -.5 -110 1 unit Win

DRAW (3-way lines)

No play

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/18/10:

TOTALS

TOR-VAN u5.5 -115 2 units Win
WAS-BOS u5.5 -115 2 units Win
BUF-TBL u5.5 +110 2 units Win


ML

NAS -105 1 unit Loss

GRAND SALAMI

No play

DRAW (3-way lines)

DAL-CLS +285 1 unit Loss

[swissmix19]

Good job man. Green is good.

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/19/10:

TOTALS

MTL-COL u5.5 -105 1unit Win

ML

No Play

GRAND SALAMI

Home ML -155 1 unit Push

DRAW (3-way lines)

LAK-CHI +295 1 unit Loss

Through Tonight since tracking on this thread:

7-3-1 +7.25 Units

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/20/10:

TOTALS (6-1, +8.20u)

CAR-TBL u5.5 +110 2 units Loss
VAN-STL u5.5 -120 2 units Win

ML (1-1, +0.05u)

No play

GRAND SALAMI (2-0-1, +3.00u)

Under 39.5 -110 2 units Win

DRAW (3-way lines) (0-3, -3.00u)

ATL-TOR +295 1 unit Loss

Through Tonight since tracking on this thread:

9-5-1 +8.25 Units

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/21/10:

TOTALS (7-1, +9.20 Units)

LAK-COL u5.5 -105 1 unit Win

ML (1-3, -2.75 Units)

ATL -155 1 unit Loss
COL -125 1 unit Loss

GRAND SALAMI (2-0-1, +3.00 Units)

No Play

DRAW (3-way lines) (0-3, -3.00 Units)

No play


Through Tonight since tracking on this thread:

10-7-1 +6.45 Units

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/22/10:

TOTALS (8-1, +10.35 units)

TB-NYI u5.5 +115 1 unit Win

ML (2-4, -2.35 units)

FLO +180 1 unit Loss
NYI +140 1 unit Win

GRAND SALAMI (2-1-1, +.90 units)

Under 22.5 -105 2 units Loss

DRAW (3-way lines) (1-3, +.15 units)

VAN-DET +315 Win


Through Tonight since tracking on this thread:

13-9-1 +9.05 Units

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/23/10:

TOTALS (9-3, +9.20 units)

VAN-CLS u5.5 -105 2 units Loss
TBL-NYR u5.5 -105 1 unit Loss
PHX-SJS u5.5 -120 2 units Win

ML (3-5, -1.55 units)

FLO +180 1 unit Win
PHX +185 1 unit Loss

GRAND SALAMI (2-2-1, -2.40 units)

Under 73 -110 3 units Loss

DRAW (3-way lines) (2-4, +4.95 units)

FLO-BUF +320 1 unit Loss
PIT-WAS +290 2 units Win


Through Tonight since tracking on this thread:

16-14-1 +10.20 Units

[doubledime]

Nice total record so far. BOL

[BillyPilgrim]

Nice total record so far. BOL

Thanks, it has been a nice run !

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/26/10:

TOTALS (13-3 +16.35 units)

WAS-CAR u6 -120 2 units Win
TBL-ATL u6 +105 3 units Win
PHX-DAL u5.5 -140 1 unit Win
EDM-VAN u5.5 -140 1 unit Win

ML (3-6, -2.55 units)

CAR -120 1 unit Loss

GRAND SALAMI (3-2, -1.40 units)

Under 62.5 -120 1 unit win

DRAW (3-way lines) (2-6, +2.95 units)

DET-MIN +300 Loss
MON-NYI +300 Loss

Through Tonight since tracking on this thread:

21-17-1 +15.35 Units

[JC2008]

I love your Montreal/NYI draw pick. I also think Nashville/St. Louis has a good shot at going to OT. Same as Anaheim/LA.

[BillyPilgrim]

I love your Montreal/NYI draw pick. I also think Nashville/St. Louis has a good shot at going to OT. Same as Anaheim/LA.

Tough night for those, but we'll hit them tomorrow - just need a little better than 1 in 4 to be profitable on those

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/27/10:

TOTALS (13-4, +14.35 units)

DET-COL u5.5 +115 2 units Loss

ML (3-6, -2.55 units)

No play

GRAND SALAMI (3-2, -1.40 units)

No play

DRAW (3-way lines) (3-6, +6.10 units)

MIN-CLS +315 Win


Through Tonight since tracking on this thread:

22-18-1 +16.5 Units

[BillyPilgrim]

Picks for 12/28/10:

TOTALS (13-8, +8.75 units)

PHI-VAN u5.5 +100 2 units Loss
CAR-TOR u5.5 -120 1 unit Loss
BOS-TBL u5.5 -120 1 unit Loss
BUF-EDM u5.5 -110 1 unit Loss

ML (3-6, -2.55 units)

No play

GRAND SALAMI (3-3, -2.50 units)

Under 51 -110 1 unit Loss

DRAW (3-way lines) (3-9. +2.10 units)

PHI-VAN +315 2 units Loss
BOS-TBL +295 1 unit Loss
BUF-EDM +295 1 unit Loss


Through Tonight since tracking on this thread:

22-26-1 +5.8 Units

[BillyPilgrim]

Didn't expect such a demoralizing beat-down, although I guess I should have - that's why I'm a beginner. :-)

That will be the end of this thread, as I humbly go back and try to come up with a better system.

BOL all ...