DG's 2010-2011 NHL Thread

[sapidoc]

NO. Because, the more winning games in their streak (the more hot the team is), the more chances that they will finally lose one. ex.: in those 5 seasons I backtracked, only 10% of the teams that had W7 streaks made it to W10. 90% of them failed to win 3 more games! What goes up MUST come down...

You are missing more math here.

[DennisGreen]

Man it's been a crazy night I just found this interesting stat. In all the games so far teams have scored 2 goals in a 45 second or less time frame 6 times today total so far

Make that 7 times

[lolguy999]

Halak and the under already screwed me royally. Just hopin that the ducks can pull through..

[DennisGreen]

2-1 +$203 on the day

[CoZalon]

2-1 +$203 on the day

Gz, Chicago turned out alright I had that one aswell, nice call on Florida :S GJ

[CoZalon]

Gz, Chicago turned out alright I had that one aswell, nice call on Florida :S GJ

Nevermind

[Maxi_EV]

I thought u said chase for 3-4 games.

Yeah...that's what it is...

If you jump in at W7, your chase will bring you to W10...!?!...No?

[Maxi_EV]

You are missing more math here.

Of course I am. Don't worry, I know that. Every result should also be reformat using margin of error calculations because of the small sample of games...etc ...etc...

I just wanted to answer the question when the guy asked if it was good to fade or follow certain streaks.

[Maxi_EV]

Damn Blues are getting curb stomped lol. You were on to something Maxi.

Again, let me make it clear: I don't try to predict the issue of a specific game like you do so greatly. EV calculations are a matter of long term. The only thing my calculations said was that it was a long term positive expectation play to start a 3 games chase on a team showing a W7 record.
But thanks for the compliment.

[Maxi_EV]

You are the mad scientist of the hockey forums Great reasoning for fading teams on extended winning streaks
What about losing streaks? There's no saying for what goes down
must come up Refer to Enron stock.

[waco66]

hey dg you playing Black Ops? on Xbox? if you want to play some TDM hit me up

[VegasPlayer]

Of course I am. Don't worry, I know that. Every result should also be reformat using margin of error calculations because of the small sample of games...etc ...etc...

I just wanted to answer the question when the guy asked if it was good to fade or follow certain streaks.

"The Guy" thanks you for your input. Much more than I expected and greatly appreciated.

[DennisGreen]

hey dg you playing Black Ops? on Xbox? if you want to play some TDM hit me up

Haha I'm playing right now what's your username?

[Maxi_EV]

Some pretty significant streaks building right now - Fade or Follow?

OTT, LAK, ANA W 4
WAS W 5
STL W 7
NAS L 5
TOR L6
NYI L7

Let's see, just for fun, what would happen if we tried to fade the W4+ streaks with 3-4 games chases.

OTT: game1 bet 1.15 WE WIN!
LAK: game1 bet 0.67 WE LOSE, game2...
ANA: game1 bet 0.66 WE LOSE, game2...
WAS: game1 bet 0.59 WE LOSE, game2...
STL: game1 bet 0.94 WE WIN.

[Maxi_EV]

"The Guy" thanks you for your input. Much more than I expected and greatly appreciated.

Sorry Vegas...was too lazy to go back few posts and find your name.


Shame on lazy me!

[sapidoc]

Let's see, just for fun, what would happen if we tried to fade the W4+ streaks with 3-4 games chases. OTT: game1... LAK: game1... ANA: game1 WE LOSE, game2... WAS: game1... STL: game1 WE WIN.

Just for fun, let's include the odds of each game and the chase amounts needed on each subsequent game to win one unit?

[Durden]

2-1 works for me, thx

[keyboarding]

I've done the chase system mentioned in this thread. It does not work. Do not bother.

[xraygord]

Best of luck tonight!

[Winnipeg Jets]

t bay over 2.5 goals. loks good to me.

[diegoelmestre]

nice night

[VegasPlayer]

No offense taken. Happy to see all the Hockey discussion.

[VegasPlayer]

Just for fun, let's include the odds of each game and the chase amounts needed on each subsequent game to win one unit?

Good idea - After last night it's even. (VI.com)

[Maxi_EV]

Just for fun, let's include the odds of each game and the chase amounts needed on each subsequent game to win one unit?

Absolutely.

[Foghorn]

Good Luck, there seems to be some nice picks out there tonight..........

[StokesChargers]

Have to be likin the Nucks tonight?

[gohabsgo]

Have to be likin the Nucks tonight?

I think the play is ottawa, ottawa is good at home and vancouver bad on the road

[simonk83]

Yep. I'm already on Ottawa.

[Scully]

Leclaire in nets for Ottawa tonight.

[DennisGreen]

Official Thursday Plays

MIN/ATL Over 5.5 (+100) Pinnacle $100 to win $100

TAM/WAS Over 1.5 (1st) (-121) Pinnacle $242 to win $200 (P.O.D.)

MTL/BOS Under 5 (+111) Pinnacle $100 to win $111

Two Teamer: DET (-241) / SJ (-288) = (-110) Pinnacle $110 to win $100

This is probably all for today. Passing on the Canucks game today as the total and side really is a coin flip in my opinion.

[memo99]

good luck DG

[JW Cash]

I've done the chase system mentioned in this thread. It does not work. Do not bother.

Are you kidding me ???


My Road Puck Line Chase is.... 31-2
My Home Team Fav Chase is 25-2
My Reverse Home Team Fav is 29-0


One of those systems is outlined in a NHL Thread
---------------------------------------

Thats 85-4



But I dont chase.......I utilize the Labourchere which
can dramatically increase the units won................just sayin...

[playr101]

gl tonight

-playr101

[FlaxMartin]

Tailing as always bud

[BetterBizness]

Despite nearly tailing to the tee... Can't back Det... Despite everything, the Oilers tend to pull upsets In the Louis ever so often...