Hotcross NHL 2019-20 thread

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  • pimike
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 03-23-08
    • 37139

    #281
    Originally posted by hotcross
    Done.... what was the "wow" about? Had me wondering
    I had same play. Was surprised seeing you post same and it being your only that at first

    Comment
    • hotcross
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-04-17
      • 7934

      #282
      Originally posted by hotcross
      WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

      Sunday Sept.6 - Game 1

      +3.51 Win >> DALLAS +135 first period moneyline // 2.60 units to win 3.51
      *push if tied end 1p

      Results: Sept.6 = +3.51 units (1-0 W/L)
      PLAYOFFS: -14.12 units (24-37-1 W/L/D = 0.393 pct)

      still open / pending:

      Originally posted by hotcross
      SERIES EXACT SERIES OUTCOME: DALLAS 4-2 games +650 // 1.50 units to win 9.75
      Comment
      • asiagambler
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-23-17
        • 6827

        #283
        Anything for tonight ?
        Comment
        • hotcross
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-04-17
          • 7934

          #284
          EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

          Monday Sept.7 - Game 1

          TEAM TOTAL UNDER 2.5 -145 NY ISLANDERS // 4.35 units to win 3.00

          TAMPA BAY -1 +105 puckline (*buy 0.5 goal) // 1.00 unit to win 1.05

          SERIES TAMPA BAY -180 // 9.00 units to win 5.00



          It looks to me Dallas will face Tampa Bay for the Cup, so grabbed the series price now on Tampa even though the juice is expensive

          These game 1 bets seem a bit strange but its possible Islanders could win a low scoring game tonight... not what I think is going to happen, but possible.

          A side note, originally I was going to play Islanders first period moneyline in this game 1, just as the Dallas pick yesterday. But it seems too obvious and Lightning can be very good in first periods, or both teams might begin very tight and not allow much space anywhere.
          Comment
          • hotcross
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-04-17
            • 7934

            #285
            the referees are calling everything against both sides
            Comment
            • hotcross
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 08-04-17
              • 7934

              #286
              Originally posted by hotcross
              EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

              Monday Sept.7 - Game 1

              +3.00 Win >> TEAM TOTAL UNDER 2.5 -145 NY ISLANDERS // 4.35 units to win 3.00

              +1.05 Win >> TAMPA BAY -1 +105 puckline (*buy 0.5 goal) // 1.00 unit to win 1.05

              Results: Sept.7 = +4.05 units (2-0 W/L)
              PLAYOFFS: -10.07 units (26-37-1 W/L/D = 0.412 pct)

              still open / pending:

              Originally posted by hotcross

              SERIES EXACT SERIES OUTCOME: DALLAS 4-2 games +650 // 1.50 units to win 9.75

              SERIES TAMPA BAY -180 // 9.00 units to win 5.00

              Comment
              • pimike
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 03-23-08
                • 37139

                #287
                Stay hot bud!!

                I’m tailing again
                Comment
                • hotcross
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-04-17
                  • 7934

                  #288
                  I'm trying harder to eliminate any more mistakes. Not many games remaining!
                  Comment
                  • keely85
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-04-15
                    • 4296

                    #289
                    Tampa series is straight forwards. This Dallas Vegas one is confusing af
                    Comment
                    • pimike
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 03-23-08
                      • 37139

                      #290
                      Originally posted by keely85
                      Tampa series is straight forwards. This Dallas Vegas one is confusing af
                      Agree
                      Comment
                      • hotcross
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-04-17
                        • 7934

                        #291
                        One of the aspects of my handicapping is I create a list of intangible reasons for each team advancing in the playoffs, and then apply weighted ranks. I'm not always correct, obviously. Without sharing all of my list, let me put it this way, the Vegas franchise has never lost a Western Conference Final series and while they are built to win as soon as possible, they are only 3 years in existence and there is something about experiencing the agony of defeat before the core management and long-term players truly understand the entire scope of what it takes to win the Stanley Cup.

                        Dallas has veteran core players who have lost to the St.Louis Blues in the second round in both the 2015-16 and 2018-19 seasons. But go farther back.... the franchise won the Stanley Cup in the 1998-99 season, and went on to return to the Cup Finals the following year but lost in the 1999-00 season.... and have not been back to the Cup Finals since that season, 20 years ago.

                        In the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, the Stars drafted the relatively unknown Jamie Benn 129th overall. Benn did not make the NHL team roster until the 2009-10 season, but in the recent years he has taken the role of Team Captain. The season he was drafted, 2007-08 the team lost in the Conference Finals to Detroit.


                        This history lesson may seem meaningless to anyone reading, but not to me. So now you have more insight as to my thinking. A team that adapts over the years with hungry players who know how difficult it is to win the ultimate prize to cement their legacy, with precious fewer and fewer seasons remaining in the twilight of their hockey playing career to accomplish it.
                        Comment
                        • hotcross
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-04-17
                          • 7934

                          #292
                          WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

                          Tuesday Sept.8 - Game 2

                          UNDER 5.5 -110 DAL@VGS // 5.50 units to win 5.00

                          OVERTIME +310 DAL@VGS // 1.70 units to win 5.27



                          This is probably just an Under, but I put the Overtime prop bet on there as insurance if the game goes tied 3-3
                          Comment
                          • hotcross
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-04-17
                            • 7934

                            #293
                            Originally posted by hotcross
                            WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

                            Tuesday Sept.8 - Game 2


                            +5.00 Win >> UNDER 5.5 -110 DAL@VGS // 5.50 units to win 5.00

                            -1.70 Loss >> OVERTIME +310 DAL@VGS // 1.70 units to win 5.27

                            Results: Sept.8 = +3.30 units (1-1 W/L)
                            PLAYOFFS: -6.77 units (27-38-1 W/L/D = 0.415 pct)

                            still open / pending shown in previous posts
                            Comment
                            • hotcross
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-04-17
                              • 7934

                              #294
                              WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

                              Thurs. Sept.10 - before Game 3

                              SERIES DALLAS STARS +220 (games tied 1-1) // 2.00 units to win 4.40



                              Honestly locked this in today, not sure how much I love it.... so if that follows previous performance for me, it will win!

                              Might still make a play on tonight's game.
                              Comment
                              • hotcross
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-04-17
                                • 7934

                                #295
                                WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

                                Thurs. Sept.10 - Game 3

                                DALLAS +125 first period moneyline // 1.60 units to win 2.00
                                *push if tied end 1p
                                Comment
                                • hotcross
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-04-17
                                  • 7934

                                  #296
                                  Originally posted by hotcross
                                  WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

                                  Thurs. Sept.10 - Game 3

                                  DALLAS +125 first period moneyline // 1.60 units to win 2.00
                                  *push if tied end 1p
                                  0-0 tie end of the first period tonight


                                  Results: Sept.10 = +0 units (0-0-1 W/L/D)
                                  PLAYOFFS: -6.77 units (27-38-2 W/L/D = 0.415 pct)

                                  still open / pending:


                                  Originally posted by hotcross

                                  Sunday Sept.6 - before Game 1
                                  SERIES EXACT SERIES OUTCOME: DALLAS 4-2 games +650 // 1.50 units to win 9.75


                                  Monday Sept.7 - before Game 1
                                  SERIES TAMPA BAY -180 // 9.00 units to win 5.00


                                  Thurs. Sept.10 - before Game 3
                                  SERIES DALLAS STARS +220 (games tied 1-1) // 2.00 units to win 4.40

                                  Comment
                                  • hotcross
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 08-04-17
                                    • 7934

                                    #297
                                    EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

                                    Friday Sept.11 - Game 3

                                    TAMPA BAY -135 ML // 1.35 units to win 1.00


                                    This looks like some factors have aligned for Islanders to win tonight's game, so we are getting a lower price offered on Tampa Bay.

                                    Made a small 1-unit play. Thinking the Lightning are on a win streak and will get their 6th playoff win in a row.
                                    Comment
                                    • hotcross
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 08-04-17
                                      • 7934

                                      #298
                                      I mis-spoke there. Already have 6 game win streak, going for 7 tonight is Tampa Bay.
                                      Comment
                                      • BigdaddyQH
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 07-13-09
                                        • 19530

                                        #299
                                        Tampa is a loser tonite and probably Sunday nite also. Too bad because I have them at +450 to win the East.
                                        Comment
                                        • hotcross
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-04-17
                                          • 7934

                                          #300
                                          Tampa with a suspended player, and another good one injured.... this was one for NY to win tonight

                                          I still liked the discounted price on TB for a small wager

                                          Someone else could total up all my picks if I were to always play them for a flat amount each time. I'd be interested to know what it adds up to.
                                          Comment
                                          • hotcross
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-04-17
                                            • 7934

                                            #301
                                            Originally posted by hotcross
                                            Friday Sept.11 - Game 3
                                            -1.35 Loss >> TAMPA BAY -135 ML // 1.35 units to win 1.00


                                            Sunday Sept.6 - before Game 1
                                            -1.50 Loss >> SERIES EXACT SERIES OUTCOME: DALLAS 4-2 games +650 // 1.50 units to win 9.75


                                            Monday Sept.7 - before Game 1
                                            +5.00 Win >> SERIES TAMPA BAY -180 // 9.00 units to win 5.00


                                            Thurs. Sept.10 - before Game 3
                                            +4.40 Win >> SERIES DALLAS STARS +220 (games tied 1-1) // 2.00 units to win 4.40

                                            Results: Sept.11 and Conference Finals = +6.55 units (2-2 W/L)
                                            PLAYOFFS: -0.22 units (29-40-2 W/L/D = 0.420 pct)


                                            got back to almost even for the entire playoffs, making up for a couple big bombs that lost

                                            the start of the Stanley Cup Finals is scheduled for less than 24 hours from now on Saturday evening
                                            Comment
                                            • hotcross
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-04-17
                                              • 7934

                                              #302
                                              Saturday Sept.19 - before Game 1:

                                              SERIES - STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS: DALLAS STARS +165 // 1.00 unit to win 1.65
                                              Comment
                                              • hotcross
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-04-17
                                                • 7934

                                                #303
                                                Wed. Sept.23

                                                STANLEY CUP FINAL - Game 3

                                                DALLAS STARS +132 ML // 1.00 units to win 1.32

                                                UNDER 5 +115 TB@DAL // 1.00 units to win 1.15
                                                Comment
                                                • hotcross
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 08-04-17
                                                  • 7934

                                                  #304
                                                  Friday Sept.25

                                                  STANLEY CUP FINAL - Game 4

                                                  DALLAS STARS +140 ML // 2.50 units to win 3.50


                                                  Very rare for a team to lose 3 in a row in the Final.... no home ice fan boost makes the situation different this year, but I'll still play the odds.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • hotcross
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 08-04-17
                                                    • 7934

                                                    #305
                                                    Saturday Sept.26

                                                    STANLEY CUP FINAL - Game 5

                                                    DALLAS STARS +150 ML // 2.00 units to win 3.00

                                                    UNDER 5 +110 TB@DAL // 2.00 units to win 2.20

                                                    I'm on the slide here in the final, but I think Dallas has one more answer tonight. Maybe a 2-1 score type game. Keep in mind, Tampa would win 4 in a row if they won again tonight. Too bad Dallas has gotten so far away from their style of game.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hotcross
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-04-17
                                                      • 7934

                                                      #306
                                                      Originally posted by hotcross
                                                      Wed. Sept.23 - STANLEY CUP FINAL Game 3

                                                      -1.00 Loss >> DALLAS STARS +132 ML // 1.00 units to win 1.32

                                                      -1.00 Loss >> UNDER 5 +115 TB@DAL // 1.00 units to win 1.15




                                                      Fri. Sept.25 - STANLEY CUP FINAL Game 4

                                                      -2.50 Loss >> DALLAS STARS +140 ML // 2.50 units to win 3.50




                                                      Sat. Sept.26 - STANLEY CUP FINAL Game 5

                                                      +3.00 Win >> DALLAS STARS +150 ML // 2.00 units to win 3.00

                                                      +0
                                                      PUSH >> UNDER 5 +110 TB@DAL // 2.00 units to win 2.20

                                                      Results: Sept.23-26 = -1.50 units (1-3-1 W/L/D)
                                                      PLAYOFFS: -1.72 units (30-43-3 W/L/D = 0.411 pct)


                                                      2 OT winner for Dallas in Game 5 makes the series 3-2 with Tampa ahead. Game 6 on Monday. Game 7 on Wed. Sept.30 if necessary.


                                                      Still pending:
                                                      Originally posted by hotcross
                                                      Saturday Sept.19 - before Game 1:

                                                      SERIES - STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS: DALLAS STARS +165 // 1.00 unit to win 1.65
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pimike
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 03-23-08
                                                        • 37139

                                                        #307
                                                        Any side bets tonight buddy?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • hotcross
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-04-17
                                                          • 7934

                                                          #308
                                                          No plays Game 6 or 7 for me. I want Dallas to win, but will be entertained whatever way this plays out. Personally, I'm sick of the Stamkos stroking he received from the media earlier in the series.... the guy basically is never healthy for the playoffs every year. I see his teammates do love him as the Team Captain, but I don't like the whole feel good story... if he wants to be a Stanley Cup Champion, play more than 2 minutes in the playoffs for almost your whole career. Ok I said it... probably not a popular opinion.


                                                          What normally would happen in Monday night's spot is Tampa wins a low scoring game to closeout. This series does not have the texture of a series that sees a Game 7. "But it's year 2020" ...so who knows, right?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • hotcross
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 08-04-17
                                                            • 7934

                                                            #309
                                                            I want to add that Dallas has a bunch of aged former first round draft picks. I suppose that is the main reason I want to see the Stars hoist the Cup. And one last side note, the team was last in the Final in year 2000... 20 years
                                                            Comment
                                                            • pimike
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 03-23-08
                                                              • 37139

                                                              #310
                                                              Originally posted by hotcross
                                                              No plays Game 6 or 7 for me. I want Dallas to win, but will be entertained whatever way this plays out. Personally, I'm sick of the Stamkos stroking he received from the media earlier in the series.... the guy basically is never healthy for the playoffs every year. I see his teammates do love him as the Team Captain, but I don't like the whole feel good story... if he wants to be a Stanley Cup Champion, play more than 2 minutes in the playoffs for almost your whole career. Ok I said it... probably not a popular opinion.


                                                              What normally would happen in Monday night's spot is Tampa wins a low scoring game to closeout. This series does not have the texture of a series that sees a Game 7. "But it's year 2020" ...so who knows, right?
                                                              Appreciate your straightforwardness!!

                                                              Yes 2020 is so unpredictable
                                                              Comment
                                                              • hotcross
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-04-17
                                                                • 7934

                                                                #311
                                                                Originally posted by hotcross
                                                                Saturday Sept.19 - before Game 1:

                                                                -1.00 Loss >> SERIES - STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS: DALLAS STARS +165 // 1.00 unit to win 1.65

                                                                Results: Sept.28 Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup
                                                                = -1.0 unit (0-1 W/L)

                                                                PLAYOFFS: -2.72 units (30-44-3 W/L/D = 0.405 pct)


                                                                We finally have a champion for the 2019-20 season

                                                                This marks the end of season-long threads on SBR for me.

                                                                I did terribly in the regular season, then salvaged a small loss in the "virus bubble" postseason.

                                                                Check my QAS Quivering All-Sports thread in the main forum Players Talk section, from now on.
                                                                Comment
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