Faith in numbers

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • mrginandtonic
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-11-09
    • 7738

    #36
    Originally posted by million2one
    No, I don't chase with the same team.
    I lost Buffalo as the A bet then I took Colorado as my B bet which won.
    I understand. Thank you for the input.
    Comment
    • million2one
      SBR MVP
      • 03-19-09
      • 1290

      #37
      Time to take a break and wait until the Olympics is over, I would make a play on Anaheim tonight if not for the looming break in the season. I'll maybe tweak my dollar amounts and come back strong after the break.


      Puck line:

      10- 5; +$99.00


      Money line:
      10- 3 overall


      10- 0 as chase; +$50
      Comment
      • million2one
        SBR MVP
        • 03-19-09
        • 1290

        #38
        It's been a month and I have been waiting patiently to jump back into my NHL system, hopefully I can pick up where I left off.
        Big play today on some big juice.

        Puck line:

        10- 5; +$99.00

        Washington Capitals (-1.5) (+100) risking $10


        Money line:
        10- 3 overall


        10- 0 as chase; +$50

        Washington Capitals (-270); [A] bet; to win $5
        Comment
        • MathewXB
          SBR MVP
          • 11-08-09
          • 1629

          #39
          Been looking over your thread.............. and have come to the conclusion that either you are very lucky or very good but either way you have a proven record so keep up the good work.



          XB
          Comment
          • million2one
            SBR MVP
            • 03-19-09
            • 1290

            #40
            I think it is mostly very lucky.

            But the mathematics I use is very sound, I think.
            I guess one never knows for sure, I just believe in what I am doing.
            Comment
            • sidewinder66
              SBR High Roller
              • 01-31-10
              • 148

              #41
              great record so far. good luck in the future. I hope it will continue to be profitable for you
              Comment
              • mrginandtonic
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-11-09
                • 7738

                #42
                anything that fits your formula?? today or tomorrow??
                Comment
                • million2one
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-19-09
                  • 1290

                  #43
                  Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                  anything that fits your formula?? today or tomorrow??
                  I had Capitals today who lost, (you can see why I am betting such low amounts on these money lines).
                  It looks like I will place my B bet tomorrow with Anaheim.
                  Comment
                  • 905prodigy
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-08-09
                    • 247

                    #44
                    nice job, will keep posted will this thread
                    Comment
                    • million2one
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-19-09
                      • 1290

                      #45
                      I picked the wrong day and team to come back with, hopefully I can get it tonight with Anaheim.
                      I was debating between them and the Flyers, thoughts on those two games?

                      Puck line:

                      10- 6; +$89.00

                      ANAHEIM DUCKS (-1.5) (+150) risking $10


                      Money line:
                      10 - 4 overall


                      10 - 0 as chase (PENDING) ; +$50

                      ANAHEIM DUCKS (-200); [b] bet; risking $37 to win $18.50
                      Comment
                      • million2one
                        SBR MVP
                        • 03-19-09
                        • 1290

                        #46
                        Getting put to the test today as I have not gone to a C bet in this experiment.
                        If I lose this chase bet then it is back to the drawing board there, and I will include some more variables when selecting games.
                        Remember I am a hockey novice and just learning how to cap hockey.

                        On that note, can anyone tell me the most important statistic to look at when capping hockey? (Goals, Shots, Save %, etc)


                        Puck line:

                        10- 7; +$79.00

                        WASHINGTON CAPITALS (-1.5) (+100) risking $10


                        Money line:
                        10 - 5 overall


                        10 - 0 as chase (PENDING) ; +$50

                        WASHINGTON CAPITALS
                        (-280); [C] bet; risking $155.40 to win $55.50


                        Including more variables would of had me take the Flyers last night who won, and Buffalo for tonight.
                        Win or lose tonight I have learned something and will use that going forward.
                        Comment
                        • million2one
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-19-09
                          • 1290

                          #47
                          Phew, made it through my first 'C' bet, I don't think I would like to do that again, so either way it is time to update my methods and tweek my system. I will make improvements to strengthen my picks (IMO) and see what I can do for the rest of the year.

                          Either way I am learning a good deal by keeping this thread and hopefully my methods will only continue to grow.

                          Puck line:

                          10- 8; +$69.00


                          Money line:
                          11 - 5 overall


                          11 - 0 as chase ; +$55


                          Comment
                          • million2one
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-19-09
                            • 1290

                            #48
                            I have tweeked how I am picking games so technically I could consider this as a separate record as my variables have changed.
                            I will continue on though in the manner I have been, and hopefully learn better how to manage my money in the future.

                            Puck line:

                            10- 8; +$69.00

                            MONTREAL CANADIANS (-1.5) (+130) risking $10

                            Money line:
                            11 - 5 overall


                            11 - 0 as chase ; +$55

                            MONTREAL CANADIANS
                            (-240) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
                            Comment
                            • mrginandtonic
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-11-09
                              • 7738

                              #49
                              Just curious, does your system only picks out one game per day?? Is your system based on the "most" favorite in terms of odds as your pick?
                              Comment
                              • million2one
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-19-09
                                • 1290

                                #50
                                Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                                Just curious, does your system only picks out one game per day?? Is your system based on the "most" favorite in terms of odds as your pick?
                                Yes one play a day, I will cap every game and then take only the highest "chance" of winning per day, so only one play a day for now, and sometimes there are no plays on a day.
                                I am working on finding a value system where I could capitalize on the value in the money lines as well, but haven't posted.

                                Alot of the times these plays will be the big favorite or one of the big favorites, but that is not the criteria I am using to pick these games, that would be too subjective at times about who the biggest favorite would be.
                                I am capping strictly numbers and my system is very objective and will always have a clearly defined play.

                                Let's get 'em
                                Comment
                                • mrginandtonic
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-11-09
                                  • 7738

                                  #51
                                  Thanks for the info. Any play today??
                                  Comment
                                  • million2one
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 03-19-09
                                    • 1290

                                    #52
                                    Unfortunately I will be taking the Caps again as a huge favorite, hopefully they can at least cover the -1.5 as I have been getting bleed to death on these puck lines. I was getting so lucky with them early on and have now lost 4 or 5 in a row on the puck line, as long as the chase bets keep winning and I am on the plus side with the puck line bets, I am happy.

                                    Puck line:

                                    10- 9; +$59.00

                                    WASHINGTON CAPITALS(-1.5) (-120) risking $12

                                    Money line:
                                    12 - 5 overall


                                    12 - 0 as chase ; +$60

                                    WASHINGTON CAPITALS (-330) ; [A] bet ; to win $5


                                    I will throw in these value plays to keep track of just the start of an experiment, I am not betting money on these value plays.

                                    Value Play:

                                    LA Kings (+100)
                                    Comment
                                    • million2one
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 03-19-09
                                      • 1290

                                      #53
                                      Very disappointed in the Caps haven't been quite as good since the Olympic break, maybe cause they are so far ahead in the standings they don't need to win every game. Good news is I won my first value bet and in the long run this may be the way to go.
                                      Looking to get it right today with my chase bet, I feel very good about this one may even get the puck line win that I badly need.

                                      Puck line:

                                      10- 10; +$47.00

                                      VANCOUVER CANUCKS(-1.5) (+170) risking $10

                                      Money line:
                                      12 - 6 overall


                                      12 - 0 as chase ; +$60

                                      VANCOUVER CANUCKS
                                      (-175) ; [B] bet ; risking $37.63 to win $21.50


                                      No value play for today.

                                      Value Plays: 1 - 0 ; +100

                                      Comment
                                      • million2one
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-19-09
                                        • 1290

                                        #54
                                        Finally got my long awaited puck line win and some plus odds on my side.
                                        Feeling very confident now going forward and only need to make it a few more weeks to have a perfect chase record.
                                        More plays for today with some good odds, I haven't been playing many road teams, hopefully this will not be a future filter in my system.

                                        Puck line:
                                        11 - 10; +$64.00

                                        PHOENIX COYOTES (-1.5) (+230) risking $10

                                        Money line:
                                        13 - 6 overall


                                        13 - 0 as chase ; +$65

                                        PHOENIX COYOTES (-130) ; [A] bet ; to win $5


                                        Value Plays: 1 - 0 ; +100


                                        ST. LOUIS BLUES (+110)
                                        Comment
                                        • million2one
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-19-09
                                          • 1290

                                          #55
                                          No plays for today

                                          Puck line:

                                          11 - 11; +$54.00


                                          Money line:
                                          14 - 6 overall


                                          14 - 0 as chase ; +$70



                                          Value Plays: 1 - 1 ; $0
                                          Comment
                                          • million2one
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-19-09
                                            • 1290

                                            #56
                                            Late play tonight that I will try to capitalize on, big juice on this one so hopefully they will come through with a puck line win.

                                            Puck line:
                                            11 - 11; +$54.00

                                            VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-1.5) (+100) risking $10

                                            Money line:
                                            14 - 6 overall


                                            14 - 0 as chase ; +$70

                                            VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-270) ; [A] bet ; to win $5


                                            Value Plays: 1 - 1 ;
                                            $0

                                            Comment
                                            • million2one
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-19-09
                                              • 1290

                                              #57
                                              Taking another shot on this Vancouver team, at least the juice is not so high this time.
                                              May have to rethink my Puck line strategy or money management as the -1.5 has not been hitting so well as of late.

                                              Puck line:
                                              11 - 12; +$44.00

                                              VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-1.5) (+230) risking $10

                                              Money line:
                                              14 - 7 overall


                                              14 - 0 as chase ; +$70

                                              VANCOUVER CANUCKS (-140) ; [B] bet ; risking $25.90 to win $18.50


                                              Value Plays: 1 - 1 ;
                                              $0
                                              Comment
                                              • million2one
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-19-09
                                                • 1290

                                                #58
                                                Keeping the streak alive, and still have only gone to a third game in the chase just once. The puck line plays have been in trouble and if they continue to lose I will just stop betting on the puck line and continue my money line chase. Some big juice in play today so lets hope I can get an easy win.

                                                Puck line:
                                                11 - 13; +$34.00

                                                DETROIT RED WINGS (-1.5) (+120) risking $10

                                                Money line:
                                                15 - 7 overall


                                                15 - 0 as chase ; +$75

                                                DETROIT RED WINGS (-250) ; [A] bet ; to win $5


                                                Value Plays: 1 - 1 ;
                                                $0
                                                Comment
                                                • million2one
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 03-19-09
                                                  • 1290

                                                  #59
                                                  Been getting killed playing these big chalks, maybe that should be a filter for me either that or don't take road teams.
                                                  Another B bet today lets see if I can keep the streak alive with a small favorite, I will stop playing the puck lines very shortly and not let the money I made dip below zero, so two more shots for me to get a puck line win, hopefully it will be today.

                                                  Puck line:
                                                  11 - 14; +$24.00

                                                  DALLAS STARS (-1.5) (+260) risking $10

                                                  Money line:
                                                  15 - 8 overall


                                                  15 - 0 as chase ; +$75

                                                  DALLAS STARS (-120) ; [B] bet ; risking $21 to win $17.50


                                                  Value Plays: 1 - 1 ;
                                                  $0
                                                  Comment
                                                  • million2one
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 03-19-09
                                                    • 1290

                                                    #60
                                                    No plays for today, but I see a nice big play coming for tomorrow.
                                                    The chase system is working great so far with just one 'C' bet through the 16 wins.
                                                    The puck line has been suffering though, so it is time for me to adjust my money management, and begin to play the money lines for larger amounts of money. This has been a great learning experience so far.

                                                    Puck line:
                                                    11 - 15; +$14.00


                                                    Money line:
                                                    16 - 8 overall


                                                    16 - 0 as chase ; +$80



                                                    Value Plays: 1 - 1 ;
                                                    $0
                                                    Comment
                                                    • buzzer
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 01-15-10
                                                      • 881

                                                      #61
                                                      love the read thanks.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • million2one
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-19-09
                                                        • 1290

                                                        #62
                                                        This will be my last puck line play if it loses, I am 1 - 10 overall in my last 11 puck line plays, it's crazy how I got so lucky early on and now have crashed almost back to zero. I have to do some more research about these puck lines or maybe play the money line for a larger amount then the puck line. Lets keep it rolling with a big play today.

                                                        Puck line:
                                                        11 - 15; +$14.00

                                                        MONTREAL CANADIANS
                                                        (-1.5) (+220) risking $10


                                                        Money line:
                                                        16 - 8 overall


                                                        16 - 0 as chase ; +$80

                                                        MONTREAL CANADIANS (-140) ; [A] bet ; to win $5


                                                        Value Plays: 1 - 1 ;
                                                        $0
                                                        Comment
                                                        • million2one
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-19-09
                                                          • 1290

                                                          #63
                                                          Another 'B' bet for my system, good news is I won my last three 'B' bets and have only gone to a 'C' bet once, now that I jinxed myself I am sure I will lose tonight but I must march on. The other bit of good news is I didn't lose much in juice last night and today I am playing a team with + odds, so really hoping for the win. Also I am done playing the -1.5 puck line as it has officially fallen on its face.

                                                          Puck line:
                                                          11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT


                                                          Money line:
                                                          16 - 9 overall


                                                          16 - 0 as chase ; +$80

                                                          MINNESOTA WILD (+115) ; [b] bet ; risking $10.43 to win $12


                                                          Value Plays: 1 - 1 ;
                                                          $0
                                                          Comment
                                                          • million2one
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 03-19-09
                                                            • 1290

                                                            #64
                                                            Well I called it (read above post) I knew another 'C' bet was coming. So I have a big time play coming tonight and if that loses not sure how to progress as I will still have some money left, lets hope it doesn't come to that. And my play is on the big time match-up (personally I hate both teams, being a Flyers fan) but lets go Caps, the Caps did manage to cash my only other 'C' bet, so back to the well with them.

                                                            Puck line:
                                                            11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT


                                                            Money line:
                                                            16 - 10 overall


                                                            16 - 0 as chase ; +$80

                                                            WASHINGTON CAPITALS(-210) ; [C] bet ; risking $36.60 to win $17.43


                                                            Value Plays: 1 - 1 ;
                                                            $0
                                                            Comment
                                                            • million2one
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-19-09
                                                              • 1290

                                                              #65
                                                              Still alive with the Caps coming through for me last night. A little late here, but I have a play for tonight.

                                                              Puck line:
                                                              11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT


                                                              Money line:
                                                              17 - 10 overall


                                                              17 - 0 as chase ; +$85

                                                              BOSTON BRUINS (-200) ; [A] bet ; to win $5
                                                              Comment
                                                              • million2one
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 03-19-09
                                                                • 1290

                                                                #66
                                                                Maybe time to retire this soon as I am getting killed with big juice, another crappy line for my play today, I really can't afford to lose this one.

                                                                Puck line:
                                                                11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT


                                                                Money line:
                                                                17 - 11 overall


                                                                17 - 0 as chase ; +$85

                                                                DETROIT REDWINGS (-300) ; [B] bet ; risking $45 to win $15
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Marauders
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-23-09
                                                                  • 1072

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Good luck!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • million2one
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-19-09
                                                                    • 1290

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Glad I got that win, I didn't want to chase a -300 in juice. So the chase record stands at 18 wins and 0 losses as a three game chase. Since the season is winding down I may just try to get over 20 wins as a chase and call it quits. Can't wait until next NHL season so I can bet a little bigger and work from the beginning of the year. I'll be doing a similar experiment with MLB if anyone is interested check me out there. Of course I haven't tried MLB capping yet, so I will again just be starting very small.

                                                                    On to today's A bet:

                                                                    Puck line:
                                                                    11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT


                                                                    Money line:
                                                                    18 - 11 overall


                                                                    18 - 0 as chase ; +$90

                                                                    BUFFALO SABERS (-170) ; [A] bet ;to win $5
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • million2one
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-19-09
                                                                      • 1290

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Got my mojo back with an easy A bet win, my last two bets would have even covered the puck line, maybe I should have continued to track that just to see where it would end up. Another play for today, lets keep it rolling.


                                                                      Puck line:
                                                                      11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT


                                                                      Money line:
                                                                      19 - 11 overall


                                                                      19 - 0 as chase ; +$95

                                                                      SAN JOSE SHARKS (-220) ; [A] bet ;to win $5
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • million2one
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 03-19-09
                                                                        • 1290

                                                                        #70
                                                                        That's more like it, lets keep racking up those 'A' bet wins and see how far I can go.
                                                                        Another play tonight with some reasonable juice this time, there may be something to this after all.


                                                                        Puck line:
                                                                        11 - 16; +$4.00 FINAL COUNT


                                                                        Money line:
                                                                        20- 11 overall


                                                                        20- 0 as chase ; +$100

                                                                        ATLANTA THRASHERS (-130) ; [A] bet ;to win $5
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        Search
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...