Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

VERY interesting thread TommyGold

not much cappers write sth about the games that they play

hope you end the season ca$hing

and I very like your suggestions about what games you like for a day, it's usefull information

GL

Many thanks, Vicarious. You're welcome!

[TommyGold]

2009.10.21 results:

Nashville Predators @ Boston Bruins: Boston Bruins PL -1.5 +150 (2.50) 5Dimes (3-2: LOSS)
Buffalo Sabres @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)
Colorado Avalanche @ Minnesota Wild: Colorado Avalanche ML +120 (2.20) 5Dimes, The Greek (3-2: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks: Chicago Blackhawks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1,95) Bookmaker (2-3: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Chicago Blackhawks: Over 5.5 -120 (1.83) 5 Dimes, Centrebet, Pinnacle (2-3: LOSS)

2009.10.21 finished with a 0-5 and -5 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 11-20 (-4,23 units lost/31 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Rough patch we're riding here.

2009.10.22 results:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker, Centrebet (5-1: WIN)
New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (5-1: LOSS)
Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +185 (2.85) Bookmaker (4-3: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers: Over 6.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (4-5: WIN)
San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning: San Jose Sharks 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (5-2: LOSS)

2009.10.22 finished with a 2-3 and -1.14 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season results: 13-23 (-5.37 units lost/36 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Carolina Hurricanes @ Colorado Avalanche

Colorado will host Carolina with the Hurricanes being a road underdog team. Can Peter Budaj discredit the work that Avalanche has done so far? It will be first game this season for Budaj in Avalanche's nets. It's true that Anderson has been one of the keys for their wins. But Avalanche will have a B2B game at home and Anderson will be spared. But, Budaj is not bad at all. He had a bad season last year, but in the previous seasons, he had done a good work. Now, why can't he be reliable? He will make his first game, after 9 games, with a team that has a high morale and I see it as something contagious for all the players in the roster.

Colorado started the season with 2 home games, winning easily Sharks and Canucks. Then went to a 7 games road trip, losing the first 2 games and the last one, 2 of them in SO. The other game was lost by one goal only. So, this team is playing very well, fighting all the games with all they've got. They are making the difference in the field in PP situations too.

Carolina are struggling this year. I's a team that I enjoy, however they still have a hard rail to go. With only a easy win at home, over Panthers, this team had lost the 4 games they done as visitors. So for this game, there will be to many edges for Colorado to let this one pass. They are playing much better on offense and defense. They got confidence and the Hurricanes still have to find their game. They are few "degrees" below Colorado right now and Budaj will not be the key for Hurricanes, as I expect him to play well as the rest of the team.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche 3Way (1X2) +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI), Centrebet, bet365

[TommyGold]

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh is in a 6 wins streak. Why end it today? I don't have much to explain this pick. The Penguins are playing well and their only absence will be Fleury. However, his impact on the team is not so strong, which give us few or no doubts about the Penguins' performance. Pittsburgh is well known by their offensive line. They can easily score and they shot a lot.

Florida is not a reliable team. After the horrible display by Clemmenson last game, allowing 2 goals in the first minutes at home, Vokoun had troubles too, and the Panthers ended losing 5-2. They are playing badly in their defense, allowing almost 4 goals per game. And even their offensive has moods.

So for me, this is a simple game to analyse. A team that has big troubles defending will face the Penguins and the bookies give us a PL over the pair? We can't let this one pass! The differences between both rosters, the way they are playing, and the momentum of both team are astounding!


Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) 5Dimes, PIT PL -1.5 +155 (2.55) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators

This season Boston are trying to show us how to bet on them. It's a funny trend, because in a 9 games, they cannot make 2 wins or losses in a row. So, I suspect that there will be many bettors today betting on Boston just because they lost the last one. However, in this world of probabilities they might be wrong. They think that will be much more probable a win for the Bruins because of the trend. However, it's a false thinking. The probabilities are in favor to end this trend and is like a linear equation. If they delay to make 2 in a row the bigger will the probabilities for to that happen. So, after 9 games I think that the probability, only statistically speaking, will be in favou of the Senators, and for those that only bet on sports due to probabilities, these will be bigger today.

In their last game, only 2 days ago in Philadelphia, I saw Boston playing a Little bit. They are playing horrible, they are not anymore that cohesive team that we knew from last year. Boston is losing their games against teams that got the momentum and are playing well. They have individual values, but they are not producing the expected hockey. Savard, the top scorer, will be out and he is one of the few players in the team still showing how to play the game.

Ottawa, despite the last loss against a team that is rising from the dead, is playing well. The Senators are not a team that is afraid of "big team names" and they fight 'till the end on every game. They are also a good team, with talented players that make the difference, specially Alfredsson, who can lead them.

Thus, I think this could be a good clash between a team that is playing poorly, allowing the adversaries to play too much, and a team that is playing well. With the Senators players making the difference instead of the Bruins players, we have an edge on defense and offense on our side, and Ottawa should win this one. However, I prefer to play this on the ML, because I expect some improvement from the Bruins from their last game, however it will not be enough to give them the win. Overall, this is the line offering the best value for me.


Pick: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes, OTT ML -120 (1.83) SBOBET

[TommyGold]

New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens

Today we will have a game where the key for the victory will not be the stats of this season. Montreal has a good roster, however they delayed to show it. After wins on their first 2 games this season, they struggled a lot being defeated 5 times in a row. Fortunately for them when the whistle of disgrace played, they returned to victories and arrive to this game with 2 straight wins.

In the other side, we will have a Rangers team facing their worst moment of this season so far. After starting with a loss, they had 7 straight wins and were one of the hottest teams in the league, playing well and scoring a lot. But... as much as you climb, bigger will be the fall. And Rangers are coming from 2 home defeats, showing big problems on defense.

Both teams are talented and have players that can make the difference. It's true that Montreal has been unrecognized this season, but has appeared on last game. Rangers were playing well, showing everyone their offensive power, and that they can beat everybody.

However for me, the spot to explore is this: Rangers lost their momentum, coming from 2 home losses, where they show mental weakness. A non-strong mental team will always struggle in Montreal. And I think that we will have here a non-confident Rangers.
Montreal is finally starting to show their game. They are a smart team and they can explore this non physical part of the game to win it. They need to continue with their wins and facing a team with a "bad momentum", but second on the Eastern Conference, can be a good boost. So, we cannot pass on this home dog.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker, MON 3Way +170 (2.70) NordicBet

[TommyGold]

2009.10.23 results:

Florida Panthers @ Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh Penguins PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) 5Dimes (3-2: LOSS)
Carolina Hurricanes @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche 3Way (1X2) +145 (2.45) Diamond (DSI) (5-4: WIN)

2009.10.23 finished with a 1-1 and +0.45 units won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 14-24 (-4.92 units lost/38 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders: Over 6 -104 (1.96) 5Dimes - The Capitals are in a good scoring mood and the Islanders have some motivation to score some goals too, they are a young team, they chase their losses, which will be a big mistake for them, allowing the Capitals to score a few more goals.

Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +135 (2.35) 5Dimes - The Flyers play at home, against a Florida team which played in Pittsburgh against the title holders, being in the lead up to the 3 minutes before the last whistle, the Panthers gave everything they've got against the Penguins, they are exhausted and therefore, they shouldn't be at their best tonight. Philadelphia is one of those teams that if you allow them to have some room to play, to maneuver inside your lines, they have a very good ability to score, on that matter, Richards and Carter are lethal goalscorers.

Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes - Colorado is playing quite well, they are a solide team and they have shown good gameplans so far. I understand why they are home underdogs, it is a B2B game against the vice-champions, (Colorado is 1-0 with 0 days rest, it is not much to show, but it seems that they aren't that bad yet on this kind of scenario), but Detroit's hockey display is actually very bad and I don't see any value on them right now. On their previous encounter, Colorado went to Detroit and defeated the Red Winds, so why not another win for Colorado tonight?

If you can get CAR ML +130, go ahead, otherwise, I'll pass on them.

[TommyGold]

2009.10.24 results:

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (3-4: LOSS)
New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker Paddy Power DONE (5-4: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders: Over 6 -104 (1.96) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (2-3: LOSS)
Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +135 (2.35) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (5-1: WIN)
Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes bet365 DONE (3-1: WIN)


2009.10.24 finished with a 2-3 and -0,25 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 16-27 (-5.17 units lost/43 units risked)

[TommyGold]

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) The Greek - The youth of the Islanders will not be enough against a rising Canadiens team, with enough experience and having good results lately. They have the best team and they should show it tonight.

[TommyGold]

2009.10.26 results:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) The Greek (3-2: LOSS)

2009.10.24 finished with a 0-1 and -1 unit lost/1 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 16-28 (-6.17 units lost/44 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers

Today we will have a match between two different teams, but with one common problem. There are a lot of injuries in both sides. Colorado will start with Anderson, so far the best goaltender in NHL. We can expect him to slow down with his performance, however, I don't expect it today. Colorado can be described as a road team. They are 4-1 in regular time and 0-2 on SO. If we check, they won at regular time in Boston, Detroit, and so on. Even at home, they are 4-0 in 4 games. So, what can we say about this team? One of the best so far. And why? Because all the players in the roster are making their part. And this will be a key today, where they have few men down, as Edmonton.

Khabibulin will be Edmonton's goalie. I like him, however I think that he still have to get more game time with the Oilers jersey to get his best game. They are good at home with 5-1 and that's why they are favourite. Yet their victories were against teams with some problems and they are terrible on the road.

I see all the value on Colorado. A team that can cover any absent player as all the roster is playing well. A team that is playing pretty well at road too. A team with big advantage at defense. A team with confidence and secure of what they can do, like winning this game. Edmonton can play pretty well too at home, however they didn't proved nothing yet and the Oilers come from 3 away losses, where they played a poor hockey. So, we can't let this one pass.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML +115 (2.15) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks

Since they lost D. Sedin, the Canucks have changed the way they play, with 5 unders in a row. They are playing thoughtfully, lurking for an opportunity to score. With 3 wins in a row and knowing that they best game has been the defense, as they had decreased their offensive power, they will do what they can to face the desperate Red Wings. With Luongo returning for their best games and the will to win this one, they will be smart enough to make their best game, playing quietly and waiting for an opportunity.

The Red Wings come from 3 straight losses. They are facing problems, as their game is based on offensive and they are not producing the expected. They are struggling on every game they play away from home and they need to bounce back from this bad moment. This team have very experienced players and I expect them to play with their intelligence. They can't go to this game as they did when they faced the Sabres and got a blowout loss. Osgood will start today and we can expect today a good performance, as the Canucks are not at their best on offense.

So, I expect a very tactic game, and this two teams are getting more unders than overs lately, which is a trend I believe will continue tonight.


Pick: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

St. Louis Blues @ Carolina Hurricanes

We can trust in the Hurricanes playing at home where they've got their two wins this season. They lost two other games, one against the Flyers in a hot streak, the other one against the title holders. After a bad display on the road with a 0-4 loss and 6 straight losses, it is up to Carolina to take this game to change the course of things, thanks to their perseverance.

The Hurricanes will face today a team that as surpassed all expectations on the last season and this year we are a little bit unable were to put it or label it against their competition, because they have been hard to read. They seem to be determined to fight for the playoffs, however, after two big games in Sweden, they have a 2-5 losing record, having still something to prove.

I expect a confident team that can get the win, that needs to win this game and I think they can deal with this pressure. On the other hand, there is a team that is not reliable, still trying to find out their identity.


Pick: Carolina Hurricanes 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker; CAR 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) NordicBet, Expekt, Betsson

[TommyGold]

Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus has been brilliant at home, with a 3-0 winning record. They base their game on defense, a very tight game, which makes them a very hard team to play against. In Phoenix, they were able to deliver the Coyotes their first home loss, by 2-0. Today, they host the Coyotes and the home crowd will be a nice edge for the Blue Jackets.

Phoenix was pointed as one of the weakest teams in the league, yet they have been able to surprise this early season, having won on the road against the current champions. Eventually then came the losses, and also some victories in between, but those were mostly in OT, and they are now in a 0-2 losing streak.

I expekt the Blue Jackets at their normal behavior, taking over and controling the game, against one the weakest teams in the NHL, that after a nice start, are lowering their performance level and showing what was expected for this year.


Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

2009.10.27 results:

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers: Colorado Avalanche ML +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (0-3: WIN)
Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (4-5: LOSS)

2009.10.27 finished with a 1-1 and +0,15 unit2 won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 17-29 (-6.02 units lost/46 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames

Tonight we will pick a side just because of the odds value. The disregard from the bookies about Colorado performance, is like saying that there is a lot of value on them. I know that some day they have to stop to crush bookie's wallets. They keep considering the Avalanche as dogs, but they just keep giving money to those that believed in them. So, we can't stop now. Tonight we will go with Colorado as big dogs, we have to take the benefits of their "momentum" as long as we can.

About the game, it will be a hard game, Calgary is playing well, with many players impressing on the offense. So far, they lost at home only to Dallas. So, if they can lose with a team that hasn't found yet their game, why not take this shot? Colorado is a cohesive tea, and now combine a good defense with good offense.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML +165 (2.65) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks

San Jose will play at home after 6 road games. They we're not bad at all and I think that it was a positive road trip. They are starting to "acquire their engine" and today, returning to play at home, I think the Kings will suffer because of it. They have a team better than last year, Heatley can make the difference easily.

LA Kings is playing quite well. However, I can see a spot here: Kings lost on the road against strong opponents. Sharks won most of their games by 2 or more goals. Despite the moment of the Kings, i think the Sharks will not miss this opportunity to show their supporters that they are a contenders to Stanley Cup, despite this early part of the season.


Pick: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

2009.10.28 results:

St. Louis Blues @ Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)
Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (1-4: LOSS)
Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames: Colorado Avalanche ML +165 (2.65) Bookmaker (2-3: WIN)
Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (2-1: LOSS)

2009.10.28 finished with a 1-3 and -1,35 units won/4 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 18-32 (-7,37 units lost/50 units risked)

[TommyGold]

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa will host today the team that gave them the worst loss, 7-1. So, this game will have a "revenge" factor. Tampa Bay lost at Ottawa and now they host them, so this game will be different for sure. Tampa Bay is a "special team". They can be weak, but they can do pretty things at home, as we saw a few days ago when they won 5-2 against the Sharks.

The Senators are playing well making so far a good season. The only losses they have this season, in Regulation Time, were against the Rangers and the Penguins. If Senators plays against a team on the road with the level of Tampa team, I would go with Senators without doubt.

However, this Tampa Bay is a special team at home. They have talented players, but the team doesn't show their maximum potential on the road, they usually only show their talent at home. Therefore I see an opportunity here, Tampa Bay wants revenge for sure, and if they are in that mode at home... they can blowout anyone.


Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers

A week ago, Atlanta wasn't able to stop Washington. Now, they will face them again. The difference for this game, is just one. Kovalchuk. The Trashers star suffered an injury and will miss action for a few weeks. He was the key in this last match up, scoring 2 goals. Now, we will be out, increasing the gap between these two teams.

The Capitals faced some problems, losing 4 in a row, but now they are with 5 straight wins. They've got confidence, and Semin helped to make the difference. Today, they know they can crush Atlanta, a team they beat only by one goal. With the knowlegde about Kovalchuk miss, they will not tolerate a non-winning game.

The Trashers have done a good season so far for them. They are with 0-2 losing record on their last 2 home games, however, it were against the Capitals and the Sharks. They fight every game and try to keep the games close, seeking their opportunities.

The key for this match, will be the injury of Kovalchuk. He was and still is the best player of the Trashers, the one that can help a lot his team to keep games close. With his absence, I think that Atlanta will struggle a lot in next few games, specially against a team with so much offensive power as the Capitals.


Pick: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Phoenix Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues

This a B2B game for both teams. St. Louis won easily yesterday at Carolina by 5-2 and they return home today. The Blues have already faced Phoenix on the road and they lost 3-2 on OT. When they won, they do it with a great lead and I think that they want to snap this L-W-L-W record on their last games and Phoenix is the right team for the Blues to score another win.

On the other hand, the Coyotes will end today their road trip and yesterday they only won in the end of the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, with two goals in power play, and that was a tiring game. Like I stated yesterday, this Phoenix team despite having a nice start, they aren't a top team and I expect a flat spot for them on this game, their third straight on the road and I remember that of their last 5 wins, 3 were on OT/SO and I expect that yesterday game will take a toll on them.


Pick: St. Louis Blues 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings

In this match up we have two teams with the same numbers, but in a different order: LA Kings is 4-1 at home, Vancouver is 1-4 away. So, we can get an easy conclusion. The first are good at home so far, the others still have to find how to face road games.

Los Angeles is making an impressive season so far. At home they only lost their first game of the season. Even with that game, they have 5.2 goals scored at home. Impressive for a team that started the season with a label saying "no playoff contenders".

Vancouver lost the last game at home against the Detroit Red Wings, result of an awful third period. In their road games, they usually struggle a lot, allowing 3.40 goals per game, and scoring only 2. Thus this itself gives us almost an average difference of a puck line.

Today Raycroft will start for the Canucks, something that gives me no confidence on their defense. Luong allowed 5 goals against the Red Wings, but was playing pretty well, and those 5 goals were a consequence of a bad team game. Quick will start for the Kings and so far, he has been one of the keys of the success path of his team.

For this game, I can understand why the Kings are a little bit the favorites, since they are on a B2B game. It can be hard, but all their games have been hard, as they are a team to kill. Their home advantage this season seems something big, and the confidence of the team should be enough to face a team with lots of injuries, struggles a lot away, and comes from a bad loss.


Pick: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +200 (3.00) The Greek



A believe this game already started (this Daylight Saving Time hiatus is "killing" me), if that is the case, my apologies:

Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers

Now, there is the right moment to take Oilers. There are few reasons to take this one. First of all, we've got here a huge odds value. The home dog is 5-2-0-1 at home. The last game was at home and a defeat after a 2 road trip with no wins. So, they've got to take this game seriously, specially after zero goals scored in the last 2 games. And I believe this team can turn things around. It is not the kind of team to letdown their arms. After the last game loss, they will give their supporters a good game. I think the fact that Khabibulin will be the goaltender, will help the team, as he alternates his performances between bad and good ones. And today, it's a day for a good performance, like we has done so long this season, at home. At home, Edmonton is more powerful at offense, but their advantage is in making difficult to opponents to score.

Detroit is coming from a win, an away win! 5-4 at Vancouver, for a team that is disappointing every one, is a good win. However, this team is not the first good win they've got, but after those wins they usually get back to a poor game. Maybe the fact that they have a old roster, can explain it. They give all they can in one game and need a week to recovery (pretty bad :evil. Yet, the truth is that we can explain this team: every time we believe that they will start their engines and start to play good hockey and win games, they come and prove us that we were wrong. The bigger problem is they can't defend when playing away. Even on their only win on the road on their last game, they allowed 4 goals to Vancouver. To help it, they will put their backup goalie in the nets, Howard. They expect that he will give good luck, however I think this will be a mistake, as this team needs a strong goalie, mentally speaking.


Pick: Edmonton Oilers ML +146 (2.46) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

2009.10.29 results:

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (3-4: LOSS)
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (5-2: WIN)
Phoenix Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues: St. Louis Blues 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (0-2: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +195 (2.95) Bookmaker (1-2: LOSS)

2009.10.29 finished with a 1-3 and -2,09 units lost/4 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 19-35 (-9,46 units lost/54 units risked)



For today, I've already 2 picks, will see if I can unearth anything else in the next hour:

Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker; ANA 3Way +105 (2.05) Expekt, NordicBet

Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

2009.10.30 results:

Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker (7-2: WIN)
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (3-1: WIN)

2009.10.30 finished with a 2-0 and +1,86 units won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 21-35 (-7,6 units lost/56 units risked)



For today, 2009.10.31, I've 2 early picks:

Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers

In this game, we will have a team in a "letdown spot". Carolina comes from a 7 losses in a row cold streak. Between that losses they tried to turn things around, fighting with all they've got, but without any luck, losing those in OT. This team needs a spot to turn things around and that spot will be difficult to appear outside from a home game, against a team with a poor road record. So, tonight, we will have a no confident team. In road games, they are allowing 4.17 goals per game. A huge problem against teams with a good offensive record. And in the other end, they score only few more than 2 goals per game.

Philadelphia will have here an opportunity to give a blowout win and to show to everyone that they are a strong contender. Despite the last 2 losses they are not without confidence. That losses were against the biggest contenders to the Stanley's Cup. They are aware of their capabilities, and how good they can be specially against teams that gives them room to their offensive.

So, today I expect the Flyers to return to blowout wins. They are a team that can do it easily, the game just has to go under their control. Carolina is a breakdown team right now, hoping for better days and with no confidence for this game. Their road records shows their fragility as visitors.

Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker



Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators

Atlanta is a hard team to beat, that's the reality. However, despite their last result, that can be considered good for what i said, it do not shows the latest reality. They lost only by one goal, but they were losing by 3 almost all the game.

Ottawa lost their last 2 games at home and for this team, with a strong home factor, this is something not normal. The value on this game will be that the Thrashers are not in their best "mode", as they come from a 4 losses in a row cold streak. With their best player out, they will have to wait for a better game to turn it around as the Senators are a strong team, particulary at home.


Pick: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens

Toronto finally got their first win on this road trip. 3 games ago they won on the road on Anaheim against the Ducks, starting to get their confidence back. However in the next 2 games, they lost in OT, thus they will be on this game with 2 lost games in a row. It's hard to talk about the Maple Leafs, everything seems to fail. First, they score few goals, allowing too much goals in return. Then they won, but they failed in keeping the wins flowing, losing 2 games after the only win in this season, in OT.

Montreal, had also problems in this start of the season. They have a good roster, but the results are late to come. Yet, before losing the last 2 games on the road, they've got 4 home wins. It was the turning point of the season, at least it seems, as they have for the first time this season a positive record. Curious is the fact that in those 4 wins, 3 were on OT.

So for this game, a canadian derby, it will be very important to have confidence. Montreal has it, they got lucky in last home games, their roster is way more experienced. Toronto lost to hold their "momentum" after their first win and they are without luck. So, I can't see Toronto with capability to discuss this game, even if it is a derby.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

[TommyGold]

2009.10.31 results:

Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (6-1: WIN)
Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (1-3: LOSS)
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (5-4: LOSS)

2009.10.31 finished with a 1-2 and -0,3 units lost/3 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 22-37 (-7,9 units lost/59 units risked)

[TommyGold]

San Jose Sharks @ Carolina Hurricanes

I will recapitulate what i said yesterday :

"In this game, we will have a team in a 'letdown spot'. Carolina comes from a 7 losses in a row cold streak. Between that losses they tried to turn things around, fighting with all they've got, but without any luck, losing those in OT. This team needs a spot to turn things around and that spot will be difficult to appear outside from a home game, against a team with a poor road record. So, tonight, we will have a no confident team. In road games, they are allowing 4.17 goals per game. A huge problem against teams with a good offensive record. And in the other end, they score only few more than 2 goals per game."

So, yesterday we went on a blowout loss for Carolina, and I think that I'm able to say that I read well this team, as they lost 1-6. With this thoughts, I think I can find a huge spot today as well.

Carolina is in a "letdown spot". No confidence, with 8 losses in a row, with no luck, and with even with more poor statistics than yesterday thanks to another poor performance. At home, they got their only 2 season wins (1 win on OT on road as well) in regular time. However, those wins were on the early games of the season, and now while there were on this long 'road trip', they lost the 2 last home games as well.

San Jose is an eternal contender to the Stanley's Cup, had a low start of the season, with a 3-4 record. But since that bad start, they got their engines on, and are with a 6-1 winning record, arriving to this game with 4 wins in a row. The last 2 at home, they won the first match in a hard game and unexpectedly against the LA Kings. But before that, they got a 6 road games, starting in Washington with a defeat, but then started their real season, crushing the Rangers 7-3 and defeating the Flyers 4-1, Atlanta 4-3 and the Islanders 4-1... Their only loss was agaisnt Tampa Bay on the road, where no one wins if their players are in a good day. Thus, I think that they are already showing their capabilities and their engines are well tuned. They have improved their defense as their offense as well.

For this match up, we will have a B2B game for Carolina. For this team with no confidence, this can be a sacrilege. Even playing at home, they have to wait for a team with a poor record, without or with very low morale and thinking that they can win only because the bad period of the Hurricanes. But this is not the case, the Sharks are a powerful team, finally in the right road and with a positive record. They have rested for one day, after winning against one of the sensations of the season, Colorado. Therefore, they get on this match with confidence, knowing what to expect from their opponents and with all the possibilities to play their game as they want to, so we can have an easy win by 2 or more goals.


Pick: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek

[TommyGold]

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

Whoever will be the Buffalo Bills starting quarterback, QB Trent Edwards or QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, I believe that Houston will have an edge on this match up, since QB Matt Schaub is doing a superb season and he has already 16 touchdowns. With such quality recievers like WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels, it's not a surprise at all. On the offense, Houston is very strong on the passing game and their rushing game has improved a lot too, so this will be a good option for this game since the Bills D is having a lot of difficulties to top this kind of game. I can't deny how good the Bills are defending lately against the passing game, getting a lot of interceptions, but I believe that the Texans O will prevail on this one and let the Buffalo defense in trouble.

Texans D has some shortcomings and they conceed several points throughout the game, but this Bills O is not much better, because so far, they have few points scored. WR Terrell Owens is now even criticizing himself instead of his teammates, but this is more showtime than anything else. Overall, I think that these Texans are better than the low scoring Bills, Houston's passing game is very strong and their running game is becoming dangerous and therefore, I believe that the Houston Texans will win this game by 1 or more touchdowns.


Pick: : Houston Texans -3 -115 (1.87) 5Dimes

[TommyGold]

2009.11.01 results:

San Jose Sharks @ Carolina Hurricanes: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +210 (3.10) The Greek (1-5: WIN)

2009.11.01 finished with a 1-0 and +2.1 units won/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 23-37 (-5.8 units lost/60 units risked)



For today, I've only this pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers

With Smith in the nets and a 4.5 conceeded goals average record when playing on the road, we have here a spot to take some advantage. This seems easy. However, this is just a stat. So, I will continue with some explanation about Tampa Bay, as we won the last 2 reads i've done about this team.

The Lightning are a special team with extra-confidence when they play at home. But today they will play on the road. In 4 games, they've got 3 regular time losses and one loss in OT. The last two road games, they lost 1-7 and 1-4. Before those 2 games, they won 2 at home, so we can't excuse them with things like "they weren't in their best form". They had also their roster without injuries.

What can I say about this? They are very weak on the road, with huge problems on the nets, particularly when Smith is their goaltender. It's true that they have very talented players in their first line, but they've got some kind of syndrome, as they usually play bad on the road. Moons' players. Moody players.

Philadelphia after a good start lowered their performance until they've got that 6 days rest. Since then, they only lost to Sharks and Capitals, but the loss against San Jose was at home. They've scored more than 3.80 goals per game at home, as they are a very offensive team that loves to give good shows and in my opinion, the Flyers are a team that can beat anyone at home.

Therefore, what can we think about this game? Tampa Bay will attempt to approach this game with a lot of cautions, as they know how bad they are on the road and how much they need St Louis, Lecavallier and so on to play well. Yet, these players can't produce enough on the road and more than that, these players need confidence from the team to play well. That trust will not travel with the team, as they are coming from a bad loss at home, after the draw with Devils for one goal.

In the other side, the Flyers gave a blowout win last game, winning 6-1 at home against a lousy Hurricanes team. But if we watch the last home games, they gave another blowout win against Florida, and losing in RT and won in OT with teams with a even away record. So, we can see that Philadelphia takes advantage from teams that approach the games with some fears. In their home field, they dictate the law and another blowout victory for the Flyers seems probable.


Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) The Greek

[TommyGold]

2009.11.02 results:

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +175 (2.75) The Greek (6-2: WIN)

2009.11.02 finished with a 1-0 and +1.75 units won/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 24-37 (-4.05 units lost/61 units risked)

[TommyGold]

2009.11.04, 4 picks:

New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres: New York Islanders ML +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +245 (3.45) 5Dimes, SJS PL -1.5 +261 (3.61) Pinnacle

Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker

Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars: Calgary Flames 3Way (1X2) +140 (2.40) Bookmaker. CGY 3Way (1X2) +160 (2.60) Bwin, Centrebet

Writeups will be posted later in the day.

[TommyGold]

2009.11.04 results:

New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres: New York Islanders ML +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (3-0: LOSS)
San Jose Sharks @ Columbus Blue Jackets: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +245 (3.45) 5Dimes, SJS PL -1.5 +261 (3.61) Pinnacle (2-3 SO: LOSS)
Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (3-0: WIN)
Calgary Flames @ Dallas Stars: Calgary Flames 3Way (1X2) +140 (2.40) Bookmaker. CGY 3Way (1X2) +160 (2.60) Bwin, Centrebet (2-3 OT: LOSS)

2009.11.04 finished with a 1-3 and -1.8 units lost/1 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 25-40 (-5.85 units lost/65 units risked)




2009.11.05, 2 picks:


Montreal Canadiens @ Boston Bruins

For this match up, we would have a perspective when the season started, a good game. However, this teams were disappointing, showing only in few games the talent they got in their rosters. In this moment, Montreal are showing some improvements, with 5 of their 7 wins, appearing in their last 6 home games. However, when we though that Montreal was getting strong, they went to Pittsburgh to a blowout loss, and achieving another loss in the next game, at Chicago.

So, Montreal is not a reliable team. Knowing they are coming from a home loss, where they were trying to use their home advantage to rise their game, we can view here a spot: as a non reliable team, they are without confidence, as their efforts for the 6 straight wins at home, were smashed. Montreal as showed as well problems in their defense, taking most of their wins to OT, resulting from a power defense that shows problems when pressured, often allowing goals in the last minutes.

Boston, is a curious team, as they usually alternates a win with a loss. But for the first time this season, they got 2 straight losses, and worst, 0 goals on that games. They are on red alert about their offense, struggling with Savard injury. But even with Savard out, they already proved that they can score, and had improve their defense game to cover that powerless offense. In their last games, they are allowing just 1.60 goals per game.

So, for this game, I will take Boston 3way, but that's because this teams some times don´t play as we expect, otherwise, I would take PL. Montreal with huge defensive problems, coming from a loss, and know that tomorrow, when they return to home, they got to win to any cost to continue showing their fans improvement. So, I expect a cautious Canadians team, playing just the enough to don´t be humiliated. Boston, have offense problems, but will not miss this opportunity, facing a awful defensive team. With their defense, which will be the key for victory, they can with calm improve their offense.

Don´t forget the confidence, Montreal is not a reliable team, as Boston is more than accustomed to losses, normally giving great responses, as I expect today.


Pick: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker



Tampa Bay Lightning @ Ottawa Senators

After a nice start, Senator lost some of they fuel, with 4 losses in last 5. Despite the recent form, we can build a probable scenario for today's game. This because Senators had almost a week off, playing last game 5 days ago. So, they had time to think what was missing in the last games, and how to return to initial form. Don´t forget that they got the will, as they are angry because of the last loss, a defeat at home against Atlanta, due to a sensational perform of Atlanta´s GK. So, they know what they are capable, they know how to play well, and make sure they can seek luck.

Tampa, is a team that I already described many times. Home team. They live under the talent of their first line, but that talent needs to be stimulated by the supporters. In foreign pavilions, they usually can´t get that talented, and their first away win, yesterday, was because of Toronto demerit. If we look before yesterday, they lost 3 away games for 3 or more goals. Curious is the fact that they suffered the biggest defeat two weeks ago at this field, losing 7-1 to Senators. But they already gave their revenge, winning 5-2 at home.

So, for this game, I think we have a great value on Senators PL. Is not so risky as it seems, and the odds are with 0.40 plus than what I think it would be fare. Senators, despite the last results, had time to think their game. This game is the perfect game to them, they know how to break this team, as they won 7-1 two weeks ago. They can´t wait a better team to face tonight and show they can improve from the last results.

Tampa, get their first away win yesterday, and will have a B2B game, in a uncomfortable position to them. They got a little bit of luck, as they won with opponent demerit and had a more tired game, as they got to hold the result despite Toronto pressure. They are a easy prey as visitors, and Senators will like be a bad host for them.


Pick: Ottawa Senators PL -1.5 +190 (2.90) Bookmaker