NHL Playoff Plays - 2019

**High3rEl3m3nt** · 04-10-19, 10:03 AM

LT, are you playing any series bets?

**eaglesfan371** · 04-10-19, 10:08 AM

LT question for you.

Have been in discussion with a few people over this. How much would you estimate home advantage impacts the series line? 5-10, 1020, 20-30 cents?

**LT Profits** · 04-10-19, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by eaglesfan371

LT question for you.

Have been in discussion with a few people over this. How much would you estimate home advantage impacts the series line? 5-10, 1020, 20-30 cents?

There is no single answer to this because not all home ices are created equal and that get compounded over a 7-game series.

**LT Profits** · 04-10-19, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt

LT, are you playing any series bets?

I don't plan to, although I do like both road teams I took tonight to win series.

**Mike Huntertz** · 04-10-19, 04:05 PM

Well done for the reg season and GL in the playoffs.
Appreciate your work.
I'm with you on Vegas and against on StL

**LT Profits** · 04-11-19, 09:52 AM

2 NHL Plays Thursday

THURSDAY, 4/11
Maple Leafs +125 (Bookmaker)
Avalanche +167 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 122-124-7, +13.64

Regular Season: 121-123-7, +13.59
Playoffs: 1-1, +0.05

**NBAtony** · 04-11-19, 11:17 AM

your missing the best dog tonight!

bol

**LT Profits** · 04-11-19, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by NBAtony

your missing the best dog tonight!

bol

I actually took Carolina in contests. LOL

Just don't like them enough to bet real $$$

**LT Profits** · 04-12-19, 09:55 AM

3 NHL Plays Friday

FRIDAY, 4/12
Blue Jackets / Lightning UNDER 6.5 +105 (Heritage)
Islanders +110 (Heritage)
Golden Knights +120 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 123-125-7, +13.89

Regular Season: 121-123-7, +13.59
Playoffs: 2-2, +0.30

**eaglesfan371** · 04-12-19, 12:18 PM

LT I'm confused man.

STL was +105, you took them last time. STL is available again at +105. What has changed?

NYI you did not take last time but now are taking. Any thoughts? Obviously some self explanation from NYI since last time was +100 and now +110 but confused why you are not taking STL again.

**GzaTheGenius** · 04-12-19, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by eaglesfan371

LT I'm confused man.

STL was +105, you took them last time. STL is available again at +105. What has changed?

NYI you did not take last time but now are taking. Any thoughts? Obviously some self explanation from NYI since last time was +100 and now +110 but confused why you are not taking STL again.

Easier to win 2 at home than 2 on the road

**eaglesfan371** · 04-12-19, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by GzaTheGenius

Easier to win 2 at home than 2 on the road

While I understand that I would also argue that games are not dependent on previous games, every game is a new event. That is like saying 35 in roulette just hit, so don’t bet them next round.

I do not see how the circumstances changed. No major player was injured, same location, relatively close 1st game, how has that affected his model so that STL is not a play?

**LT Profits** · 04-12-19, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by eaglesfan371

While I understand that I would also argue that games are not dependent on previous games

Correct during the season BUT I do make slight motivation adjustments during playoff series, although not nearly as much as public believes. I think line is overadjusted for Isles (I have game +100 both ways) while I think Blues are now neutral as I get Winnipeg -104 tonight. I never said anything but model actually had St. Louis FAVORED -108 on road Game 1.

**2daBank** · 04-12-19, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by eaglesfan371

LT I'm confused man.

STL was +105, you took them last time. STL is available again at +105. What has changed?

NYI you did not take last time but now are taking. Any thoughts? Obviously some self explanation from NYI since last time was +100 and now +110 but confused why you are not taking STL again.

While I kinda wanna play stl again it goes against my nhl playoff strategy as for the most part in the playoffs once I get a road cash I typically back off and wait to try and attempt another road cash when series moves for games 3-4. Often I switch and play the fav if dog wins the 1st but not in this case.

My thinking is after road team flips the series to them having the home ice advantage they are prone to letting up while the losing team becomes desperate.. the reason this one is blues or nothing for me is simple, other than being a fan boy I feel like jets might be somewhat demoralized cause imo they played about the best they possibly could and still lost thanks to Bennington standing on his head keeping blues in the game the 1st 2 periods where they were outplayed!!! Not trying to give back my nice cash on gm 1 so thinking half the bet of gm 1. Gl whatever you decide.

**stackz125** · 04-12-19, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Correct during the season BUT I do make slight motivation adjustments during playoff series, although not nearly as much as public believes. I think line is overadjusted for Isles (I have game +100 both ways) while I think Blues are now neutral as I get Winnipeg -104 tonight. I never said anything but model actually had St. Louis FAVORED -108 on road Game 1.

Wow.

I actually think Winnipeg home ice is worth a lot more than other teams in the league.

I think jets win tonight. Statement game tonight.

**2daBank** · 04-12-19, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by stackz125

Wow.

I actually think Winnipeg home ice is worth a lot more than other teams in the league.

I think jets win tonight. Statement game tonight.

Home ice is way overrated imo. Statement game? The only statement is blues the better team and gonna take this series in 5 or 6 tops imo. Jets gave it all they had in game 1, played incredibly physical and had a bunch of excellent scoring chances but Bennington was lights out. Jets could certainly win this game but far as statements go they up against the superior team.

**lakerboy** · 04-12-19, 04:13 PM

Why Vegas? Books don't care for them. It's a home series

**LT Profits** · 04-12-19, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by stackz125

Wow.

I actually think Winnipeg home ice is worth a lot more than other teams in the league.

I think jets win tonight. Statement game tonight.

Right but I have St. Louis rated higher (or Winnipeg rated lower) than most.

**LT Profits** · 04-12-19, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Why Vegas? Books don't care for them. It's a home series

See Post #5.

**lakerboy** · 04-12-19, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

See Post #5.

That's fine but the line opened the same with no shade to Vegas. I just don't think they win tonight but good luck.

**kingdom** · 04-12-19, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by eaglesfan371

While I understand that I would also argue that games are not dependent on previous games, every game is a new event. That is like saying 35 in roulette just hit, so don’t bet them next round.

I do not see how the circumstances changed. No major player was injured, same location, relatively close 1st game, how has that affected his model so that STL is not a play?

jets are a good home team. been a tough stretch and they blew game the other night. doubt highly they lose again tonight.

**2daBank** · 04-12-19, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by kingdom

jets are a good home team. been a tough stretch and they blew game the other night. doubt highly they lose again tonight.

Why, they played best they could. Blues have played way better down the stretch than they did the other night. Could easily see blues go up 2-0. Home ice so overrated in playoffs.

**kingdom** · 04-12-19, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

Why, they played best they could. Blues have played way better down the stretch than they did the other night. Could easily see blues go up 2-0. Home ice so overrated in playoffs.

i think they wore down at end of season and maybe a little disinterest. look at that march schedule in the beginning they play 8 playoff teams in a row and they went 7-3 to start the month and kind of slacked off. they know season is over if they lose tonight so if you think they gave their best in game 1, you expect less with season on line? but word is sharps are all over st lou so i guess none of this may matter anyways lol.

**2daBank** · 04-12-19, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by kingdom

i think they wore down at end of season and maybe a little disinterest. look at that march schedule in the beginning they play 8 playoff teams in a row and they went 7-3 to start the month and kind of slacked off. they know season is over if they lose tonight so if you think they gave their best in game 1, you expect less with season on line? but word is sharps are all over st lou so i guess none of this may matter anyways lol.

I think when you give everything you got in gm 1 and it gets stolen from ya by a hot goalie it can be a bit demoralizing for sure. Ultimately i just think blues the superior team, lot of money invested in this roster just took them some time to get it together (and a new coach and goalie!), since turn of the year nobody been playing better hockey than the blues.. jets could certainly win tonight but I couldn’t resist plus money, I’m riding blues all series as I think they finish jets off in 5, 6 games tops.

Maybe sounds homerish but I’m usually disliked around this parts for normally being against blues in the playoffs. I honestly think this year different and they primed to make a deep run.

**kingdom** · 04-12-19, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I think when you give everything you got in gm 1 and it gets stolen from ya by a hot goalie it can be a bit demoralizing for sure. Ultimately i just think blues the superior team, lot of money invested in this roster just took them some time to get it together (and a new coach and goalie!), since turn of the year nobody been playing better hockey than the blues.. jets could certainly win tonight but I couldn’t resist plus money, I’m riding blues all series as I think they finish jets off in 5, 6 games tops.

Maybe sounds homerish but I’m usually disliked around this parts for normally being against blues in the playoffs. I honestly think this year different and they primed to make a deep run.

they damn sure got hot at the right time. it was crazy after the all star break and i kept waiting to see if it was just a fluke. i think they win the series but jets should put up a hell of a fight tonight. gonna be physical and ugly.

**2daBank** · 04-12-19, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by kingdom

they damn sure got hot at the right time. it was crazy after the all star break and i kept waiting to see if it was just a fluke. i think they win the series but jets should put up a hell of a fight tonight. gonna be physical and ugly.

If it anything like gm 1 should be a incredible game. Jets were laying dudes out for sure. Blues pp was really bad, think if they get that figured out they could take commanding lead... honestly I think the bad play early in the season was the outlier for this team, they got one of highest payrolls in the sport I believe, really good roster and now they have possibly the hottest goalie going, they gonna be a tough out if Bennington sustains that level of play!!

**kingdom** · 04-12-19, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

If it anything like gm 1 should be a incredible game. Jets were laying dudes out for sure. Blues pp was really bad, think if they get that figured out they could take commanding lead... honestly I think the bad play early in the season was the outlier for this team, they got one of highest payrolls in the sport I believe, really good roster and now they have possibly the hottest goalie going, they gonna be a tough out if Bennington sustains that level of play!!

damn. tb down 2-0 in first. nhl playoffs anybody got a chance for sure.

**2daBank** · 04-12-19, 09:06 PM

Jets folding like a cheap suit. If blues could just cash one these PPs this thing be over early., damn just hit post.

**2daBank** · 04-12-19, 09:08 PM

Blues pp struggles continue and instead of commanding lead it tied.

**eaglesfan371** · 04-12-19, 11:22 PM

LT I tried getting you to come back on board man

Wish I had been playing individual games now lol have very large series bets instead NYI & STL

**lakerboy** · 04-12-19, 11:24 PM

Blues win

**kingdom** · 04-12-19, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

I think when you give everything you got in gm 1 and it gets stolen from ya by a hot goalie it can be a bit demoralizing for sure. Ultimately i just think blues the superior team, lot of money invested in this roster just took them some time to get it together (and a new coach and goalie!), since turn of the year nobody been playing better hockey than the blues.. jets could certainly win tonight but I couldn’t resist plus money, I’m riding blues all series as I think they finish jets off in 5, 6 games tops.

Maybe sounds homerish but I’m usually disliked around this parts for normally being against blues in the playoffs. I honestly think this year different and they primed to make a deep run.

could be. young team so see if they can handle early success. i think chasing jets at a decent price will win a unit. don't think they get swept here.

**eaglesfan371** · 04-13-19, 12:02 AM

St. Louis will win this round and next round. They will easily finish off Dallas and even against predators I think they will 4-3 them. Binnington is gold.

**LT Profits** · 04-13-19, 05:48 AM

Meanwhile while thread got sidetracked:

3-0

, all at + odds