jontebond NHL Thread 2016-17

[jontebond]

Pre-season: 20 - 19 - 0 (+11.065 units)

Poor finish, but still plus on the pre-season. So on Wednesday it finally starts. I will continue to posting my season picks in this thread.

[leafs_ducks]

nicely done! -5 units for me. damn parlays. lol. can't seem to stay away from parlays.

[jontebond]

nicely done! -5 units for me. damn parlays. lol. can't seem to stay away from parlays.

Thanks. I don't like parley's, always seems to be 1 game the f up the parley, and is usually the -300 team that you have.
I would stay away from Parley's..
It's a shame to hear the news about Crosby having another concussion, but I'm sure he is back in a couple of weeks. Malkin normally elevates his game when Crosby is not in the game. Just thinking about the line combinations now, Wilson and Malkin had some great chemistry in the preseason. Not sure they will stick with them....

Lets GO Pens!

[jontebond]

2016-10-12: Calgary @ Edmonton:
Game: Over 5.5 (1u - 2.02), Oilers Over 2.5 TT (1.5u - 1.61)
Player Props: McDavids Over 1.5 Pts (1u - 2.85), Eberle Goal (0.5u - 3.85), Gaudreau Over 1.5 Goals (0.5u - 8.00)

Reasons:
- New arena for Oilers, first game of pre-season, both team has young players in the lineup that will explode. This will probably result in a wide open game.
- Calgary has lost 3 straight season openers and all games has been over 5.5 (5-1, 4-2, 5-4)
- Edmonton has lost 3 straight season openers and 2 of 3 games has been over 5.5 (3-1, 5 -2, 5 - 4)
- Last season game vs opponent, Edmont: 5 - 2 W, 5 - 4 L, 5 - 3 L, 2 - 1 W OT, 5 - 0 L
- Current team Injuries has little impact on the lineups.
- Elliott needs to learn to play with a less defensive system, which will take some time.
-

[jontebond]

2016-10-12: Toronto @ Ottawa:
Ottawa in Regulation (1.5u - 2.220)
Ottawa -1.5 (1u - 3.100)

Player Props:
Mark Stone goal (1u - 3.20)
Mark Stone 1.5 pts (0.5u - 4.50)
Karlsson over 1.5 pts (1u - 3.75)
Kyle Turris goal (1u - 4.00)


- Ottawa seems to have a more solid defensive lineup
- Toronto's defense is in question if they can deliver.
- New goalie in net for Toronto, however, he will not get shielded as much as he got in Anaheim.
- Offensively, might take some time for Marner and Matthews to start producing. Ottawa has a more solid core.
- A lot of players for Ottawa loves to play vs Toronto, and I think their will be no exception on home ice premier opener.
- Ottawa swept Toronto last season:
5 - 4 W
6 - 1 W
3 - 2 W
4 - 0 W

[jontebond]

Summary: 2016-10-13
Calgary @ Edmonton:
Game: Over 5.5 (1u - 2.02) , Oilers Over 2.5 TT (1.5u - 1.61)
Player Props: McDavids Over 1.5 Pts (1u - 2.85) Eberle Goal (0.5u - 3.85) , Gaudreau Over 1.5 Goals (0.5u - 8.00)


Toronto @ Ottawa:
Ottawa in Regulation (1.5u - 2.220)
Ottawa -1.5 (1u - 3.100)


Player Props:
Mark Stone goal (1u - 3.20)
Mark Stone 1.5 pts (0.5u - 4.50)
Karlsson over 1.5 pts (1u - 3.75)
Kyle Turris goal (1u - 4.00)


Daily Plays - 2 - 2 (-0.58)
Daily Player Props - 5 - 2 (+8.775 units)


Yearly Stats:
- Plays - 2 - 2 (-0.58)
- Player Props - 5 - 2 (+8.775 units)
- YTD Total: +8.195 units

[jontebond]

2016-10-13: Montreal @ Buffalo
- Montreal ML (2u)
- Montreal in Regulation (1.2u)

Player Prop:
Alex Galchenyuk Goal (1u - 3.50)
Alex Galchenyuk Over 1.5 pts (1u - 4.00)

(Galchenyuk, should have a great year, and he will elevate his game. He loves playing Buffalo, and with the lack of centers to backcheck and hold him, he should get space to produce.)

Both team are suffering for injuries to key players. Montreal is missing Price whilst Buffalo is missing Eichel, Oreally and Okposo. As good as Price I still believe that Montreal will feel less of an impact to the injuries then Buffalo, and here is why.
1st and 2nd center in the lineup is key. Now they are forced to use 3rd and 4th line center as Nr 1 and 2. Buffalo is not deep with Centers so their 3rd and 4th line will probably consist of Grant and Girgensons.
Centers controlling the middle ice so they have a big impact to the game. I'm expecting to see tons of turnovers from Buffalo tonight.


So the goalie in net for Montreal will be Montoya (My favorite guy to fade a couple of seasons ago), however he has improved, and is nowdays a solid backup goalie. He normally plays good in the beginning of the season.


Last season Buffalo won 2 and lost 3 vs Montreal. Based on all this I'm willing to back Montreal to start the season with a win. If Lehner is not shutdown down, Montreal should take this.

[jontebond]

2016-10-13: Anaheim vs Dallas:
- Anaheim ML (1u - 2.08)

Player Prop:
Corey Perry to Score (1u - 2.60)
Corey Perry Over 1.5 pts (1u - 3.30)
Silfverberg to score (0.5u - 4.20)

[MadSl1m]

jontebond thank you for doing these great previews, really enjoy reading them.

[breikert]

Agree with the post above me!

[jontebond]

jontebond thank you for doing these great previews, really enjoy reading them.

Cheers. I will try and do write-ups for all the game posted.

[jontebond]

2016-10-13: Summary
Montreal @ Buffalo: Montreal ML (2u) , Montreal in Regulation (1.2u)


Player Prop:
Alex Galchenyuk Goal (1u - 3.50) Alex Galchenyuk Over 1.5 pts (1u - 4.00)


Anaheim vs Dallas: Anaheim ML (1u - 2.08)


Player Prop:
Corey Perry to Score (1u - 2.60)
Corey Perry Over 1.5 pts (1u - 3.30)
Silfverberg to score (0.5u - 4.20)


Daily Plays - 2 - 1 (+1.34)
Daily Player Props - 0 - 5 (-4.5 units)

Yearly Stats:
- Plays - 4 - 3 (+0.76)
- Player Props - 5 - 7 (+4.275 units)
- YTD Total: +5.01 units

[breikert]

Any plays tonight?

Chicago @ Nashville
Edmonton @ Calgary
Philadelphia @ Los Angeles

[jontebond]

2016-10-15: Flyers @ Kings: Kings in Regulation (1.3u - 2.13), Kings -1.5 (0.7u - 3.00)
Kings have already played a game, they lost to Sharks in OT. They had a even tougher loss, as Jonathan Quick will be gone for a long time with an lower body injury.


Kings should be ready to play tonight, and even as Zatkoff is nowhere near Quick's capacity, I think that Kings will play solid defense to help him Zatkoff get a win. Zatkoff looked good in the remaining of the game vs Sharks.

Defensively Kings looks very solid. Offensively however I think they might have problems to score goals. Lucky for them, Flyers defense are banged up, Flyers have injuries/suspension to following defensemen Gudas and Del Zotto and Manning, so they will be very weak. They have to play a couple of young untested players so King should be able to score goals on this team, especially at home.


Neuvirth is generally a slow started, so I think if Kings can get him early, they will protect the lead and counter attack on poor turnovers.


Predicted score 3 - 1 Kings

[jontebond]

2016-10-15: Blackhawks @ Predators: Blackhawks ML (1u)

Player props:
Kane to score (1u - 2.60)

This is the toughest game on the board today and it should be a very close game.


Blackhawks looks good against Blues until they really lost discipline and gave blues 2x 5 - 3 and a lot of 5 - 4..
Queneville can't be happy with the last half of the game with all those penalties and I'm sure he has he's guys motivated for tonights game.


In the lineup they have a couple of new guys, Motte and Hartman looked good. I think they fit nicely in the 2nd and 3rd line of blackhawks. They still look good defensively, and adding campbell should be good veteran player that can still produce.


Nashville has a very solid defensive lineup, they are one of the best in the league, which I think will care them a long way.


PK Subban vs Shea Weber is a trade for Nashville that will provide a faster offensive defensemen that has great breakout passes, can produce points and is a great energy guy for the team, however Weber is still a really solid defenseman which in my opinon is better defensively then Subban, especially as a shutdown guy for top opponent players. Subban will go into a lineup with Josi, and Josi is really a fantastic defenseman, so hopefully they can understand eachother and be a great 1-D pair of Nashville.


The questionmark for this team is Rinne. Last year he had 2.48 GAA with a save procentage of 90.8 which is very poor. Not sure he can deliver as he used to. Against Chicago he is solid, Last two season he has a save procentage of 92.5 and 92.3 which is good numbers.
But if Rinne can get up to the same level as before, Nashville has really a chance to go far in the playoff this year.


Offensively adding Johansen was a great move, very unpredictable how he will start, but mid season this guy should produce good points, being on the line with Forsberg.


Overall I think that even due Nashville is at home, Chicago has played its first game and should be ready to get a win tonight.


Predicted score: 3 - 2 OT win Chicago

[jontebond]

2016-10-15: Oilers @ Flames:

Player Prop:
Gaudreau to score goal (1.5u - 2.75)
Gaudreau over 1.5 goals (0.5u - 7.00)

Tonight Gaudreau should get more space as they have home advantage and can select last change. I think Gaudreau will at least get his first goal tonight, and possible two. Hard game to decide but I think Calgary should probably manage to win, if they can get ride of the stupid turnovers.

[jontebond]

Tough day, all failed
Gaudreau to score goal (1.5u - 2.75)
Gaudreau over 1.5 goals (0.5u - 7.00)
Blackhawks ML (1u)
Kane to score (1u - 2.60)
Kings in Regulation (1.3u - 2.13)
Kings -1.5 (0.7u - 3.00)

Yearly Stats:
- Plays - 4 - 6 (-2.24)
- Player Props - 5 - 10 (+1.275 units)
- YTD Total: -0.965

[jontebond]

2016-10-15: Islanders @ Capital: Capitals in Regulation (4u - 2.08), Capitals -1.5 (1.5u - 2.82)

Player Props
OVI Over 1.5 Goals (0.8u - 4.75)
OVI Over 1.5 pts (0.5u - 2.60)
OVI Hat-trick (0.5u - 30.00) Why not =)

Capital is a much better team then Islanders. I didn't like anything that Islanders did in the off-season.
Halak is normally quite weak against Capitals.
Edit: Greiss will be in NET.
Backup goalie in net for Islanders.

They looking quite weak on the center, except superstar Tavares.

Holtby at home is a monster, and he should be able to lock the net from maybe 1 or at most 2 goals.

Ovechkin scores tons of goals vs Islanders, and home advantage means last line change so this should result in sufficient opportunities for OVI to score some goals tonight.
Washington has a balanced team with pretty much all lines that can score. First and second are really deadly.


Predicted SCore: 5 - 1 Washington

[jontebond]

2016-10-15: Devils @ Lightning: Lightning in Regulation (3u), Lightnings -1.5 (1.5u)

Devils looks worst this year, especially on defense losing Adam Larsson. Schneider don't like playing the speed of Tampa, and tonight tampa should get a lot of chances playing at home. This should be an easy win.

[breikert]

Lets get em! Time to turn it around!

[jontebond]

Capitals in Regulation (4u - 2.08) , Capitals -1.5 (1.5u - 2.82)
OVI Over 1.5 Goals (0.8u - 4.75)
OVI Over 1.5 pts (0.5u - 2.60)
OVI Hat-trick (0.5u - 30.00) Why not =)
Devils @ Lightning: Lightning in Regulation (3u) , Lightnings -1.5 (1.5u)

2-5 (+2.28 units)
Back to plus
Yearly Stats:
- Plays - 6 - 8 (+1.84)
- Player Props - 5 - 13 (-0.525)
- YTD Total: +1.315

[jontebond]

2016-10-16: Anaheim @ New York Islanders: Ducks ML (1u), Ducks TT Over 2.5 (1u)
Both team has lost the first two games. Anaheim is the better team, however Islanders is playing at home, so this game should be tight.
Gibson should step up and play a solid game after 1st games disaster.

2016-10-16: Sabres @ Oilers: Oilers in Regulation (4u), Oilers -1.5 (2u)
Good start for the Oilers. Playing at home will also bring advantage against Buffalo, which are still missing their nr 1 star.
The way McDavids is playing, it reminds me of when Crosby broke into the league, he just elevates the whole team.


2016-10-16: Hurricanes @ Canucks: Canucks ML (3u), Canucks in Regulation (2u), Canucks -1.5 (1u)
Canucks is not as bad as people think, same goes with Markstrom. He seems to be getting his stuff together. This game is very winnable for Vancouver. First line with the 3 swedes will produce a lot of points.

[jontebond]

2016-10-17: Sharks @ Rangers: Sharks ML (3u). Sharks in Regulation (2u), Sharks -1.5 (1u)

2016-10-17: Avalanche @ Penguins: Penguins in regulation (2u), Penguins -1.4 (2u)

[HockKid11]

2016-10-17: Sharks @ Rangers: Sharks ML (3u). Sharks in Regulation (2u), Sharks -1.5 (1u)

2016-10-17: Avalanche @ Penguins: Penguins in regulation (2u), Penguins -1.4 (2u)

Where'd you get the -1.4 lines?

[jontebond]

Where'd you get the -1.4 lines?

Haha drunk typo! =)

[jontebond]

2016-10-18:

Washington Over 5.5 (2.5u)

Arizona Over 5.5 (2.5u)

[jontebond]

Horrible couple of days, needs to slow down a bit
- Plays - 7 - 19 (-16.24)
- Player Props - 5 - 13 (-0.525)
- YTD Total: -16.7

[jontebond]

2016-10-19: Maple leafs @ Jets: Maple Leafs Over 2.5 TT (2u), Game Over 5.5 (2.8u)
Laine vs Matthews, good game tonight.

[jontebond]

2016-10-19: Maple leafs @ Jets: Maple Leafs Over 2.5 TT (2u) , Game Over 5.5 (2.8u)

- Plays - 10 - 20 (-11.30)
- Player Props - 5 - 13 (-0.525)
- YTD Total: -11.825

[jontebond]

2016-10-20

Ducks: ML (1u), -1.5 (1u)
Ducks need to get their shit together. I know it's a shitty schedule, but are they going to repeat the same performance as last year?


They really need to win this game to get the first win of the season, no excuses. They have the players, they just need to step up and play a solid game.


Tonight they should go for a KO win and win with more than 1 goal. Gibson has start playing good again, and against a flyers that leaks goals defensively they should score goals.


Predicted score: 4 - 2 Ducks

Wilds: In regulation (2.5u), -1.5 (1.5u)
Wild seems to have found good offensive production, and they are having a quite balanced lineup.
I think against a team such as Toronto at home, they will be able to put pucks in NET. You add that Enroth will be in net, I can't see anything else then Wild to continue it's offensive production. Enroth is a small goalie and with the style in NHL with big guys infront of net, it's not really possible anymore to be a small goalie.


Toronto have problems with the Netminder, and they are not helping the goalie a lot either. This needs to be addressed in Toronto if they want to have a .500 season.


Toronto is playing back to back game, and yesterday they had a extremely tough loss against Winnipeg. They should have won that game, and since this is a young team, I think that will result in a lacklusted performance in Wild, which is despite leaking goals, are a good defensive team.




Predicted score: 3 - 1 Wild win



Blues ML (1.5u), Blues in Regulation (0.8u), Blues -1.5 (0.8u)


Blues has better lineup, have a more balanced lineup forwards, defense and goalie. Historically Blues likes playing Oilers.
Oilers has 3 wins on the season so far but it's against bad teams. I think blues will manage to get this game, and hopefully Schwartz is back in the lineup.

Predicted score: 5 - 2 Blues

[jontebond]

What a game by Hornqvist last night, unbelivable performance!!! Check out the games guys, pens vs sharks. Fantastic how 1 player can ignite the whole team.


Chicago @ Columbus: Over 5.5 (3.5u)
Chicago has started the season scoring a lot of goals, they are give away fair amount. I think this game will be quite even between them and we should see scoring.


Crawford is never good against Columbus. Last two seasons he is way below 90%.
Same with Bobrovsky. He is also really bad against Chicago, so we should be able to get goals for both team.


Predicted score: 5 - 4 OT win Columbus.




Arizona @ Islanders: Islanders -0.5 (2u), Islanders -1.5 (1.5u)
Islanders at home, their 3rd concecutive home game, needs to get the win here. They are a much better team then Arizona.


Arizona is one of the worst in the league, and away when they don't have last change, and players such as tavares plays, they will not be able to stop the goals from the opponents.


The fact that Smith is injured and the backup is in net, and he has played aweful makes me believe this game will be a win with more then 1 goals for Islanders.

[tecmoslayer]

What a game by Hornqvist last night, unbelivable performance!!! Check out the games guys, pens vs sharks. Fantastic how 1 player can ignite the whole team.


Chicago @ Columbus: Over 5.5 (3.5u)
Chicago has started the season scoring a lot of goals, they are give away fair amount. I think this game will be quite even between them and we should see scoring.


Crawford is never good against Columbus. Last two seasons he is way below 90%.
Same with Bobrovsky. He is also really bad against Chicago, so we should be able to get goals for both team.


Predicted score: 5 - 4 OT win Columbus.

Thanks alot. This play cost me alot of money...garbage.

[jontebond]

2016-10-22: Tampa vs Ottawa: Tampa ML (1.2u), Tampa in Regulation (0.8u), Tampa -1.5 (0.5u)
Tampa had a really bad last game, so they should be motivated to get a win. There is a big difference in team, Tampa has a much better team, with depth, so the away disadvantage will not be that big for Ottawa tonight. I'm expecting Tampa to get the win tonight.

Predicted score: 5 - 1 Tampa


2016-10-22: Toronto @ Chicago: Chicago ML (1.2u), Chicago in Regulation (0.8u), Chicago -1.5 (0.5u)

Player Prop: Kane > 0 goals (1u), Kane > 1.5 goals (1u), Kane Hat Trick (1u)
Kane loves the Maple Leafs

Toronto is having real problem defensively, and none of the goalies in net are helping. Tonight Andersen will get the nod and he has been aweful. Against a Chicago at home that lost last game, this will be a too tough challenge for Toronto to answer to.

Predicted score: 4 - 2 Chicago.

[jontebond]

2016-10-23: Edmonton vs Oilers: Over 5.5 (2u)
It will be an outdoor game, and those games are normally under, however both team has problem defensively and in net.
Winnipeg's PK is also horrible, and I expect more then average penalties and PP in this game and then McDavids and Laine will fire some goals.

I think both teams will have an offensive mentality and its a massive even so I expect Laine and McDavids to elevate their game and score a couple each, maybe both score hat-trick =)

Players Prop: Laine over 1.5 goals (1u), McDavids Over 1.5 Goals (1u)

[jontebond]

2016-10-25: Florida @ Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh Over 2.5 (5u)
Crosby is back in the lineup tonight, so pens should score more than 2 goals. Backup goalie in net for Florida with Reimer and he is rubbish.