Under System

[a4u2fear]

Funny i just posted this. I been using something like this but ill do it with the highest returns and bet them for same amount. Have you tried doing it for the overs as i found them to be more reliable. Goodluck as i see you making a nice chunk of change as the season progresses and basically betting against public money.

I know my win pct so I know what lines I'm willing to play (higher ROI the more likely the play). I don't really follow the money but use the books to see about where the line will finish. If its currently a play but moving other way, I'll wait to see the closing line and then make a decision. Generally, at least with football, you want to be opposite of the money, at least the primetime games like you said.

Good luck!

[Hudini]

When you catch some time to explain about data that you use in regression

[swordsandtequila]

TB/Cbus u5 +140 1u

Not sure what to say here. This line is not a play at 5.5 and juice, and the books I see are split at 5 and 5.5; I made it a play as my book had 5, do whatever you feel is best.

No other plays.

[a4u2fear]

Edm/NYR u5 +120 1u (personally dislike this play but oh well)
TB/Tor u5 +120 1u
Col/Chi u5 +125 1u

[oilcountry99]

Let's get em!

[a4u2fear]

Shaping up poorly, andddd Rangers got the ENG with two secs left, was hoping for a tie!

[a4u2fear]

was a "bad" night and we lost 3/4 of a unit. That's what happens when you bet dogs and what makes this system so strong.

[a4u2fear]

S1
20-16-14 +12.37u

S2
2-0 +2.00u

[swordsandtequila]

It's all good. Only played TB and Col as I was already on the over in the NY game so small profit. Props for the solid thread.

[a4u2fear]

Bos/Pit u5 +120 1u

[swordsandtequila]

Bos/Pit u5 +120 1u

[the scab man]

You ever try this type of betting with the MLB?

It's a very intriguing/great idea, I know NBA and NFL wouldn't work cuz almost every line is -110 but in the MLB the totals could be juiced higher on one side....just wondering if you've ever done it/thought about it?

[a4u2fear]

S1
21-16-14 +13.57u

S2
2-0 +2.00u

[a4u2fear]

You ever try this type of betting with the MLB?

It's a very intriguing/great idea, I know NBA and NFL wouldn't work cuz almost every line is -110 but in the MLB the totals could be juiced higher on one side....just wondering if you've ever done it/thought about it?

initial results on NFL are very promising returning 70% on 55 games through 3 season. I haven't had enough time, this summer I will investigate fully.

I've never tried to bet MLB, so, maybe.

[a4u2fear]

guys msging me - i'll answer this weekend. With two young kids I have 2 mins to run the data when I get home and post games.

[a4u2fear]

Van/Phi u5 +147 1u, THIS IS ONLY A PLAY AT 5, not 5.5, some books showing 5.5
SJ/Tor u5 +120 1u

good luck

[Hudini]

LOL. I know that you play VAN/PHI game. BOL Man

I get second kid in week or two.

[a4u2fear]

LOL. I know that you play VAN/PHI game. BOL Man

I get second kid in week or two.

Hope it goes smoothly for you, only thing I learned: don't go to hospital until water breaks or contractions about 5 min apart, congrats

[Hudini]

Thanks man.

Good night. I was on Phi in regular +120. Still try to understand regression system

[the scab man]

initial results on NFL are very promising returning 70% on 55 games through 3 season.

How do you determine the games you take for the NFL?

[a4u2fear]

S1
22-17-14 +14.04u

S2
2-0 +2.00u

[a4u2fear]

How do you determine the games you take for the NFL?

difference between my calculated total and vegas total. When I further broke it down into totals below X and above X, it got even better, kind of like juice in hockey

[a4u2fear]

DET/VAN u5 +117 1u, only play, good luck

[a4u2fear]

btw, I'm so impressed with the results (which are inline with backtesting), I'm upping my unit size by 1.5.

[RollinDo]

Nice - I look at some of your plays and scratch my head...but then when I see the results, I scratch my head again wondering why I didn't tail. Nice job so far!

[a4u2fear]

S1
22-18-14 +13.04u

S2
2-0 +2.00u

[a4u2fear]

I frequently check the scores of these games and I swear the ones I'm betting always have goals scored in the 18th or 19th minute. I'm always clicking refresh and thinking, ok, if we can just get out of this period and bam, there it is, goal in 18th or 19th.

[swordsandtequila]

Couple of early goals in the 3rd didn't help, then Zetterberg ties is up @ 3 in the last minute to blow the push. Going to have games like this, but it's all good. Keep rockin'.

[VegasPlayer]

I frequently check the scores of these games and I swear the ones I'm betting always have goals scored in the 18th or 19th minute. I'm always clicking refresh and thinking, ok, if we can just get out of this period and bam, there it is, goal in 18th or 19th.

Thought I was the only one that had that thought

[a4u2fear]

Yep and only one game in league went under last night, so, onto today. Looking like at least three to four plays and one S2 play

[blackHIPPY]

Awesome work

[a4u2fear]

S1 - totals @ 5
Cal/Stl u5 +130 1u
Toronto - no play! Lost last 2 with them, system says no more for a while
Car/Pit U5 +125 1u

S2 - totals @ 5.5
Arz/NYI u5.5 -105 1u

[a4u2fear]

S1
23-18-15 +14.29u

S2
3-0 +3.00u

2-0-1, keep it going.

[acehole]

thanks man for sharing

[swordsandtequila]