NHL totals unders system test

[dejong77]

In the month of september i did a test with a system i am developing for MLB. I have created a sytem based on the database from sportsinsights with a few query filters. With the focus on making profit longterm on unders at 7,5 runs or higher lines.

During this test month the system made 18 units profit.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/2946177-mlb-totals-unders-runline-system-test-p6.html#post22787017

All the plays where tracked on the forum.

I have done the same thing for NHL. looking for advantages with the under 5,5 goals line based on the data from sportsinsights betlabs. Last season this system would have made about 24 units profit. and the season before last season about 10 units profit.

I tracked this system during the first week of the NHL. It went 8-1 for 5,23 unit profit.

So i am now going to test it live here for a month to see how it works out.

Rules:
i Always use a very conservative bankrole system. I have a bankrole of €5000 and only flatbet 0,5% of it on any under pick.

i only use the 5,5 goalline. if its 5 or 6 goals then i look for another bookie or don't play it. because with pushes a lot of profit is Wasted.

here are the first plays.

Under system 14-10-2014
19:05 Stars at Blue Jackets Under 5,5 -115
19:35 Devils at Lightning Under 5,5 -130
19:35 Avalanche at Maple Leafs Under 5,5 +100
20:05 Flames-Predators Under 5,5 -120

under system 15-10-2014
no plays

be carefull with following or fading these plays. BOL if you decide to follow/fade.

[dejong77]

results under plays 14-10-2014

Good start yesterday with my under picks. Starting with +1,6 unit profit.

record: 3-1
unit: +1,6

Stars	Blue Jackets	Under 5,5 -115	L	-1
Devils	Lightning	Under 5,5 -130	W	0,77
Avalanche	Maple Leafs	Under 5,5 +100	W	1,00
Flames	Predators	Under 5,5 -120	W	0,83

only three games to pick from today. I don't see any value in these games. So no play.

under system 15-10-2014
no plays

optional:
i looks strange but i feel that this game could go over 5 despite the bruins offense not really clicking and red wings playing good D.

Win or loss but is not counted in the under system results.

[k0karn]

Gonna keep an eye on both your threads!

[dejong77]

Bruins-Red Wings finished in 3-2. So the over 5 bet was a push. 3 games meet the criteria of all the filters.


16-10-2014 under system
19:05 Sharks-Islanders Under 5,5 +104
19:05 Devils-Capitals Under 5,5 -149
19:35 Avalanche- Senators Under 5,5 -120

[RollinDo]

Can you tell me if the Avs - sens Under is a strong fit in your system?

[dejong77]

Hey Rollindo,

How are your nhl picks doing?

Its the strongest fit of the day. The trend that they almost not went over 5,5 this season makes it the strongest play of the day.

[RollinDo]

Hey Rollindo,

How are your nhl picks doing?

Its the strongest fit of the day. The trend that they almost not went over 5,5 this season makes it the strongest play of the day.

Hey man.
So far 3-3 in nhl.
Started out 3-0, but went 0-3 on Tues...1 loss being the last second empty - netter in the Dallas - Columbus game...had a lot of those last season with 5 seconds or less!
Mlb playoffs have been decent for me, but really had a beast of a time trying to hit Under from September on.
In nhl, I hit 62% on Unders last season and only watch about 2 hockey games all reg. Season...maybe a fluke...not sure.
Thanks for verifying that Avs Under.
I am doing an IF Win bet for tonight:
StL-LAK (U 5) -105
Avs-Sens (U 6) -145

Also on Habs ML -117...small

[dejong77]

I am a real NHL junkie. I watch as much as i can. Have always like 3-4 games at once on. I did good with unders in september. Next year going to try a full season of mlb unders. Would also like to see my runline system in action. Didn't really use it much.


i offcourse like your second pick. But you first pick not so much. I am going small on the over 5.

[dejong77]

optional:
sometimes when the OU is at 5 and 2 offensive powerhouses clash then i will do a small bet on the over.
Blues-Kings game i will play small on over 5 -110 (0,25% of bank role)
Bruins-Canadiens Over 5 -109 (high confidence so play this with nomal 0,50% of bank role)

but normally i have a allergy for even lines. games with even lines are standard graded a no play.

As this is a unders test i will not count this bet in my results. Won or loss. Just bonus picks.

[dejong77]

added one game. Final card

16-10-2014 under system
19:05 Sharks-Islanders Under 5,5 +104
19:05 Devils-Capitals Under 5,5 -149
19:35 Avalanche- Senators Under 5,5 -120
added
19:05 Hurricanes-Rangers U 5,5 -130

Optional:
22:35 Blues-Kings over 5 -110 (0,25% of bank role)
19:35 Bruins-Canadiens Over 5 -109 (high confidence so play this with nomal 0,50% of bank role)

[dejong77]

It was not the day for unders yesterday. Unders went 1-3 for a loss of 2,24 units.

6 games today. Going with the under on 4 games.
19:05 Flames-Blue Jackets Under 5,5 -120
19:35 Red Wings-Maple Leafs Under 5,5 -120
20:05 Predators-Jets Under 5,5 -115
21:35 Canucks-Oilers Under 5,5 -110

[RollinDo]

It was not the day for unders yesterday. Unders went 1-3 for a loss of 2,24 units.

6 games today. Going with the under on 4 games.
19:05 Flames-Blue Jackets Under 5,5 -120
19:35 Red Wings-Maple Leafs Under 5,5 -120
20:05 Predators-Jets Under 5,5 -115
21:35 Canucks-Oilers Under 5,5 -110

Only one I feel good about is Jackets Under 5.5
I lost the last Jackets Under with that last second goal by Dallas.
GL today man!

[dejong77]

The over games went 1-1 but because the big confidence game was a winner went for a profit of 0,41.

At the moment only one game can fit that system. But have to review it. Will update this around 1pm et

[RollinDo]

Actually after looking into trends and such, I am going with the Under in the Preds - Jets game.
U 5.5 (-119)

Using betpoints for Under in Columbus game.

[dejong77]

added 1 game to the over system.

19:05 Panthers-Sabres Over 5 -135

[dejong77]

Actually after looking into trends and such, I am going with the Under in the Preds - Jets game.
U 5.5 (-119)

Using betpoints for Under in Columbus game.

Both teams (pred-jets) started pretty under this season. Also previous games where pretty much under. So i feel its save and the line got value.

I am less confident with the flames-jackets game. Jackets first 2 games at home went over. last 15 meeting was about 50-50 over-under. i expect a tight game. either will be 5 or 6 goals i think.

[RollinDo]

Both teams (pred-jets) started pretty under this season. Also previous games where pretty much under. So i feel its save and the line got value.

I am less confident with the flames-jackets game. Jackets first 2 games at home went over. last 15 meeting was about 50-50 over-under. i expect a tight game. either will be 5 or 6 goals i think.

My thoughts as well man.
I like the Under trends for the Nashville game and the starting goalies have been solid...I think Nashville is a defensive-minded team...at least I keep reading their style is one to score a few and let the D do the rest.

[dejong77]

Only one I feel good about is Jackets Under 5.5
I lost the last Jackets Under with that last second goal by Dallas.
GL today man!

filters don't really agree on this game. on set of filter mainly historical data got this as a lock. tight low scoring game. other sets a filters also looks at trends like bj's going over and making it either a 5-6 goal game.

[dejong77]

final card with a play on all 6 games.

19:05 Flames-Blue Jackets Under 5,5 -120
19:35 Red Wings-Maple Leafs Under 5,5 -120
20:05 Predators-Jets Under 5,5 -115
21:35 Canucks-Oilers Under 5,5 -110
19:05 Panthers-Sabres Over 5 -135
22:05 Wild-ducks Under 5,5 -140 added

[DocterDrew]

Definitely feeling an under night as well, 3-1 3-2 2-1 across the board

[RollinDo]

Not sure if nhl is same as mlb.
Friday in mlb was a pure Overs haven.
Going to track O/U each day of the week and have some #'s at the end of October that hopefully we can disect.
I would play the Grand Salami Under tonight if it were a Monday or Tuesday.

[dejong77]

I think because a lot have evenly matched teams why could have tight low scoring games.

[RollinDo]

Wow. Friday and an Under sweep!
Nothing like mlb I guess as Overs tend to highlight Fridays.
I saw quite a few on the Over in the Edmonton and Toronto games. Nicely done Dejong!

Just trying to ease into the nhl season (#2 for me)
Good to have you on board so we can discuss our totals and sides!
Weekend usually hectic for me so can't post much.
Will check in Sat. Hopefully once yo see your plays.
Only Under I'm on is StL-AZ (U 5)...not sure if I'll use my $$ or just betpoints.

On Blackhawks...gonna play these guys after a loss quite a bit.
I may do -1 or just SU moneyline.

[dejong77]

how do the commercial cappers call it lol. The big friday clean up lock of week.

i will update the results later and review the data the system offers.

[dejong77]

There are 10 games tonight but there is some conflicting info. going with the following three unders today.

19:05 Sharks-Devils Under 5,5 -130
19:05 Blue Jackets-Senators Under 5,5 -110
19:05 Maple Leafs-Red Wings Under 5,5 -115

I might add an over if it fits all my filters.

[dejong77]

I have added all the picks and results so far in my sbr spreadsheet.

[dejong77]

19:05 Sharks-Devils Under 5,5 -130
19:05 Blue Jackets-Senators Under 5,5 -110
19:05 Maple Leafs-Red Wings Under 5,5 -115

added:
19:05 Bruins-Sabres Over 5 +100
19:05 Avalanche Canadiens Over 5,5 +110

[dejong77]

2-3 tonight. Giving a unit back again.

[dejong77]

4 games today but 3 have a line at 5 and are an automatic no bet as the system only picks games at 5,5 goal line.

under system:
19:05 Flames-Jets Under 5,5 -125

over system:
Sharks-Rangers Over 5 -125

[dejong77]

only 1 game monday but based on the filters no play

20-10-2014
no plays

[dejong77]

Guess i will stop with the overs. Not really hitting them 1-4-1.

the only under of the night covered.

the over lost.

[RollinDo]

What is your record on Unders now bud?
Looks like I missed out on a lot the last 3 days in nhl...focused on football...a ho hum weekend.
I basically look for totals during the week...filling in totals stats now.

Tonight I like AZ-Nash (U 5) and TB-Calg (U 5.5)...possibly FL - Colorado (U 5.5)
Your thoughts? And which of those fits your system?

[dejong77]

What is your record on Unders now bud?
Looks like I missed out on a lot the last 3 days in nhl...focused on football...a ho hum weekend.
I basically look for totals during the week...filling in totals stats now.

Tonight I like AZ-Nash (U 5) and TB-Calg (U 5.5)...possibly FL - Colorado (U 5.5)
Your thoughts? And which of those fits your system?

record is 13-10-1 now but without the over plays 12-6. So started pretty good.

coyotes-predators is automaticlly disqualified as its a 5 line. first filter is to eliminate all lines at 5 in the under system. If i would bet it now, it would be a strong over play.

Lightning-Flames is a system play. So agree

Panthers-Avalanche is a strong system play. so agree.

[dejong77]

We have 10 games today. Going to play on half the games. 4 unders and 1 over.

Under system 21-10-2014
20:05 Hurricanes-Jets Under 5,5 -124
20:35 Canucks-Stars Under 5,5 -129
21:05 Lightning-Flames Under 5,5 -130
21:05 Panthers-Avalanche Under 5,5 -120

Over system:
20:35 Flyers-Blackhawks Over 5,5 -121

[dejong77]

This over is an exception. I was going to stop playing the overs but going to do this last one.

I will not count the overs i have played and will up my stake from $25 to $30 to win back the $100 i lost on them.