TheDonger is back! 1st period O/U pick

[HoldinMygroin]

If some people do arb I just notice that TB/CLB U1.5 2.5 to win 2 (-125) can easily be arb wtih pinnacle +136 for 2.5% profit.

The o1.5 on pinnacle and the U1.5 at which site?

[TheDonger]

The o1.5 on pinnacle and the U1.5 at which site?

You missed it, pinnacle was the one with the off line. They were all at around +105/-125 (I'm using intertops atm).

[HoldinMygroin]

You missed it, pinnacle was the one with the off line. They were all at around +105/-125 (I'm using intertops atm).

Haha yeah I thought so.. Was thinking my math shouldn't be that bad, brought out the old notepad and started calculating.

[TheDonger]

Haha yeah I thought so.. Was thinking my math shouldn't be that bad, brought out the old notepad and started calculating.

I had 250$ on pinnacle I could of done it but... 10$ profit? Meh, a quarter unit for all that money doesn't worth freezing all my bets for a night.

[TheDonger]

SJS/TOR O1.5 2.1 to win 2 (-105)*

Locked it at +105

[Just Enough]

nice start man.....good luck on the late game

[TheDonger]

I wouldn't want to sound cocky by quoting myself but.............

-SJS is the #1 in 1st period GF. They are visiting TOR and this should be a very physical game. I expect lots of PP and open action. Eastern team usually struggle vs Western and I wouldn't be surprise to see a 2-0 shark after the first.
*I'm watching the line trend. I might be greedy but I feel like I can get something better. It's up to you.

Damn straight!!! TB U1.5? 0-0!!! One more left and we got a third sweep in a row.

[TheDonger]

nice start man.....good luck on the late game

Yeah, I'm running so hot right now. I know that it can't last forever but I'm appreciating the moment!

TBH, I never capped seriously before 2012-2013. First year that I really take time to add up stats/following trends. If I end up positive at the end of the season I'll be super happy!!!

[Just Enough]

Yeah, I'm running so hot right now. I know that it can't last forever but I'm appreciating the moment!

TBH, I never capped seriously before 2012-2013. First year that I really take time to add up stats/following trends. If I end up positive at the end of the season I'll be super happy!!!

i did really good my first year with the NHL as well, until i started really looking at all sorts of stats....lol. sometimes looking too deep can be over-rated. you got good instincts bro....just run with it and adjust when you have to.

[TheDonger]

i did really good my first year with the NHL as well, until i started really looking at all sorts of stats....lol. sometimes looking too deep can be over-rated. you got good instincts bro....just run with it and adjust when you have to.

Thanks, I do have a couple of math formula in a spreadsheet and I'm a natural "stats whore". When I was 8 I'd take the newspaper and go to the MLB section, I would look carefully at every single number of the Expo (yep MTL!!!) and the opposing team for hours. When I do my picks I kinda go back to that 8 years old state of mind, just look at all these numbers and deduct stuff of it.

But you're 100% right, if you just base all your stuff on numbers and forget about losing streaks, momentum, etc. Only 1 rule stands: Know the teams on which you're betting. I also try to get insider information based of 2nd hand newspaper. Like tonight game LAK/ANA I'm not too sure that Martin Jones is in the net. But if my info is correct, that give me a huge edge!

Anyway thanks for following, it's always more motivating to write stuff when I know people read it.

[TheDonger]

2/12/2013

TB/CLB U1.5 2.5 to win 2 (-125)
SJS/TOR O1.5 2 to win 2.1 (+105)
LAK/ANA O1.5 2 to win 2.4 (+120)

This month	5-1	+8.5
November	17-10	+8.95
Total 2013-2014	20-10	+17.45

[chabooky386]

2/12/2013

TB/CLB U1.5 2.5 to win 2 (-125)
SJS/TOR O1.5 2 to win 2.1 (+105)
LAK/ANA O1.5 2 to win 2.4 (+120)

This month	5-1	+8.5
November	17-10	+8.95
Total 2013-2014	20-10	+17.45

[TheDonger]

Appreciate the tip

Only one pick today, but a premium one!

MTL/NJD U1.5 4.77 to win 3 (-159)

Premium play on MTL/NJD. Budaj is in the net and he's doing a fantastic job this season (4-1-1, 1.62 GAV .939). Montreal always play a more defensive boring style when they are away. They double up on the defensive play when Budaj is in the net. Easy money.

[TheDonger]

Little bit stressed for the last 5 minutes. NJD playing so bad.

[bdc30]

nice one

[TheDonger]

3/12/2013

MTL/NJD U1.5 4.77 to win 3 (-159) - Premium

This month	6-1	+11.5
November	17-10	+8.95
Total 2013-2014	20-10	+19.45

Have some work left, will turn off tv. See you guys tomorrow for more money!

[matt1216]

The over first period should have hit as NJ hit the crossbar and it was back and forth for most of it. Good hit though

[TheDonger]

The over first period should have hit as NJ hit the crossbar and it was back and forth for most of it. Good hit though

I would of taken that pick anytime. 2 goalies with under 1.75 GA... 2 team that struggle 5v5. You get awesome value because it's not Brodeur vs Price. -159? Dayum.

But yeah, kinda lucky these days.

[matt1216]

5 goals in the 3rd wtf? Haha

[TheDonger]

5 goals in the 3rd wtf? Haha

Sick ending for a game that was so boring during the first 50 min.

[matt1216]

Sick ending for a game that was so boring during the first 50 min.

May I lucked out. I had MTL over 2.5 goals. I damn near threw my tv out the window when subban gift wrapped that goal to NJ with a min left

[TheDonger]

Anyone else excited about the first game of the year between MTL/BOS? I doubt I'll put a bet because this game will be very intense. Lots of emotion and I hate to bet in these games because most of the time unpredictable things happen.

Lots of action tonight. I'll try to find us 2 or 3 winners. Stay tuned.

[TheDonger]

SJS/PIT O1.5 2 to win 2.2 (+110)
TOR/DAL U1.5 2.26 to win 2 (-113)

Might add a late pick on the COL/EDM game, haven't finished my research. I just wanted to post pick at least 45 min before games lol.

[matt1216]

Good luck man

[TheDonger]

Good luck man

Thanks! 2 huge game tonights : MTL/BOS and SJS/PIT. Hope we get a good show.

[cotes17]

GO HABS GO!!

[TheDonger]

Adding

COL/EDM U1.5

[TheDonger]

So many whistle, it's giving me a headache. #longestperiodever

[TheDonger]

5/12/2013

SJS/PIT O1.5 2 to win 2.2 (+110)
TOR/DAL U1.5 2.26 to win 2 (-113)
COL/EDM U1.5 2.2 to win 2 (-110)

This month	7-3	+9.5
November	17-10	+8.95
Total 2013-2014	24-13	+17.45

[TheDonger]

Only one play today

NJ/DET U1.5 3.1 to win 2 (-155)

[TheDonger]

5/12/2013

NJ/DET U1.5 3.1 to win 2 (-155)

This month	8-3	+11.5
November	17-10	+8.95
Total 2013-2014	25-13	+19.45

Did we get lucky or not? That Schneider "save" was ... well, we'll take the cash and run because we just robbed the bookie.

Hope we can bust the 20 unit tomorrow. I hate myself for not playing the SJS/CAR O1.5. I played with the idea but didn't pull the trigger. Oh well, a win is a win.

I'll post tomorrow pick early, can't watch the game got a party at my house.

[TheDonger]

http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=35&id=503858&navid=nhl:topheads

[TheDonger]

Sorry for not posting picks, my money is stuck in Moneybooker. I sent all verification and they are taking forever to clear my account. I can't deposit because I hit the sending limit.

[Noleafclover]

How's it comin with Moneybooker?