TheDonger is back! 1st period O/U pick

drfunkmaster · 11-28-13, 07:30 PM

good luck

TheDonger · 11-28-13, 08:03 PM

Second pick for tonight
U1.5 EDM/NAS 2.3 to win 2 (-115)

TheDonger · 11-28-13, 11:16 PM

Good to be back

We went 2-0 today

11/28/2013
U1.5 OTT/VAN 2.4 to win 2 (-120)
U1.5 EDM/NAS 2.3 to win 2 (-115)

YTD (12-7): +8.00u

Let's hope we can keep this run going!

TheDonger · 11-29-13, 09:53 AM

11/29/2013

I'm looking at 4 plays today :

U1.5 MTL/WAS U 2.4 to win 2 (-120)
U1.5 NJ/CAR 3.2 to win 2 (-160)

Waiting for goalie to be confirmed...
U1.5 TOR/BUF 2.7 to win 2 (-135)
U1.5 WIN/PHI 2.6 to win 2 (-130)

If you guys are interested I could always do a small write up on each games. There is a thought process behind each pick but I won't bother if nobody reads it. Just tell me if you wonder about a pick I can detail it.

TheDonger · 11-29-13, 10:28 AM

Confirmed
U1.5 WIN/PHI 2.6 to win 2 (-130)

TheDonger · 11-29-13, 12:16 PM

I don't know if someone watched WPG/PHI but it was so action packed. No idea how I won that. First goal whitin the 30 seconds. That was followed up by 6 powerplay and 1 4v4 for 45 seconds. PHI has 30% PP in last couple of games and yet no goals.

Anyway a win is a win, thanks Pavlek. Good way to start the week end.

Barmelo91 · 11-29-13, 12:23 PM

Dodging bullets. Good start

ZdenoK · 11-29-13, 12:33 PM

Nice one

TheDonger · 11-29-13, 04:42 PM

I'm canceling this pick:
U1.5 TOR/BUF 2.7 to win 2 (-135)

TheDonger · 11-29-13, 05:47 PM

Bang ! 2-0 today. 2nd sweep in a row??? Who's in with me on NJ/CAR?

ddude · 11-29-13, 06:17 PM

gl on NJ/CAR

TheDonger · 11-29-13, 07:55 PM

Another day, another sweep!

11/29/2013
U1.5 MTL/WAS U 2.4 to win 2 (-120)
U1.5 NJ/CAR 3.2 to win 2 (-160)
U1.5 WIN/PHI 2.6 to win 2 (-130)

YTD (15-7): +14.00u

This was a super good night for me. Here were my other picks :

PIT -1.5 +235
ANA -1.5 +145
DET ML -110
MTL ML -105
STL ML +105

And I have 2 more NHL picks open
COL ML +105
COL/MIN U5 -115

Colorado leading 2-1 after 2!

EDIT: 2 more NHL win.

I'm just sad that I went 2-7 in NBA. Still a great night

TheDonger · 11-30-13, 11:38 AM

Let's go for a 3rd sweep in a row. We got lots of choice some easy spots. I'll try to find us 2-4 winners tonight. Stay tuned.

heavybankroll · 11-30-13, 01:15 PM

Been tailing your 1st period picks! Awesome run going , are you going to be playing the canucks game 1st period? I locked in van ml! Goodluck

TheDonger · 11-30-13, 01:35 PM

Well, I actually got 5 picks for you today. I would really like to keep our sweep streak, going and picking 5 today is certainly not the best way to do so. However, looking at todays card there are so many good opportunity I just can't pass on them. Keep in mind that today, we have lots of team that are playing b2b games so I expect legs will be heavy.

Confirmed
VAN/RAN U1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)
MTL/TOR U1.5 4.05 to win 3 (-135) *
MIN/COL U1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)
NJ/BUF U1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)

Waiting for goalies...
ANA/SJS O1.5 2 to win 2.2 (+110)

By the way, you can get much better odds then me. I'm bonus whoring at the moment so I don't get good odds. Use pinnacle/5dimes for more money!

* Premium play : Both team played away yesterday. This mean that they slept at 2 a.m minimum. Player will be tired and we can expect a sloppy/slow start. However, Price wasn't playing yesterday and is rasor sharp this season. Probably #1 in the NHL atm. When you look at Toronto, they only allowed 16 goals in 26 games (avg: 0.61) in first period. Play to win 3U

ZdenoK · 11-30-13, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by TheDonger

MTL/TOR U1.5 4.05 to win 3 (-135) *

* Premium play : Both team played away yesterday. This mean that they slept at 2 a.m minimum. Player will be tired and we can expect a sloppy/slow start. However, Price wasn't playing yesterday and is rasor sharp this season. Probably #1 in the NHL atm. When you look at Toronto, they only allowed 16 goals in 26 games (avg: 0.61) in first period. Play to win 3U

Looking good, in 5 B2B matches Montreal played 1st period under in every match so far in the season - not counting the Washington B2B but they played under in that one as well. Toronto is 2-3 in same situation. Not 100 % sure about these stats, might have overlooked something. There is just one thing... it's weekend. Anytime I play grand salami under on Saturday or Sunday teams seem to not give a penetrate about defense and fire away. Just like Rangers/Canucks currently, it's 4-1 after 2 periods...

chabooky386 · 11-30-13, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by thedonger

well, i actually got 5 picks for you today. I would really like to keep our sweep streak, going and picking 5 today is certainly not the best way to do so. However, looking at todays card there are so many good opportunity i just can't pass on them. Keep in mind that today, we have lots of team that are playing b2b games so i expect legs will be heavy.

Confirmed
van/ran u1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)
mtl/tor u1.5 4.05 to win 3 (-135) *
min/col u1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)
nj/buf u1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)

waiting for goalies...
Ana/sjs o1.5 2 to win 2.2 (+110)

by the way, you can get much better odds then me. I'm bonus whoring at the moment so i don't get good odds. Use pinnacle/5dimes for more money!

* premium play : Both team played away yesterday. This mean that they slept at 2 a.m minimum. Player will be tired and we can expect a sloppy/slow start. However, price wasn't playing yesterday and is rasor sharp this season. Probably #1 in the nhl atm. When you look at toronto, they only allowed 16 goals in 26 games (avg: 0.61) in first period. Play to win 3u

bol my friend! Solid start btw!

TheDonger · 11-30-13, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by ZdenoK

Looking good, in 5 B2B matches Montreal played 1st period under in every match so far in the season - not counting the Washington B2B but they played under in that one as well. Toronto is 2-3 in same situation. Not 100 % sure about these stats, might have overlooked something. There is just one thing... it's weekend. Anytime I play grand salami under on Saturday or Sunday teams seem to not give a penetrate about defense and fire away. Just like Rangers/Canucks currently, it's 4-1 after 2 periods...

I have no idea how you play the grand salami haha. So much variable to take into play. That's why I like so much 1st period. You have every piece of information possible. No need to worry about momentum shift, game injuries, etc.

Can't wait for games to start !

matt1216 · 11-30-13, 06:42 PM

Good luck man

TheDonger · 11-30-13, 07:21 PM

Oh god, first goal within 2 minutes. Let's just hope that things stay calm for the next 18 minutes lol.

Edit: This game is already so heated, i did not expect for this game to start under so much action. Let's hope both goalies stay strong. 10-2 shots for mtl... 12 shots in 5 minutes lol.

TheDonger · 11-30-13, 07:26 PM

LOL @2nd goal rejected. We've got the gods on our side.

TheDonger · 11-30-13, 07:51 PM

oh well. :'( I'm very sad now. My analysis was 100% good for toronto, but MTL came out beast mode. Good point ? I have MTL -1.5 and MTL in a 3 team parlay lol.

We're 1-2 so far.

I confirm our last PICK over 1.5 ANA/SJS

ZdenoK · 11-30-13, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by TheDonger

oh well. :'( I'm very sad now. My analysis was 100% good for toronto, but MTL came out beast mode. Good point ? I have MTL -1.5 and MTL in a 3 team parlay lol.

We're 1-2 so far.

I confirm our last PICK over 1.5 ANA/SJS

I told you, it's weekend

TheDonger · 11-30-13, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by ZdenoK

I told you, it's weekend

Yup, at least my MTL -1.5 hit.

Now that I think about it again, I forgot 1 thing : the rivalry!!! Anyway I really enjoyd the game. Had a great time.

TheDonger · 11-30-13, 11:18 PM

30/11/2013
VAN/RAN U1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)
MTL/TOR U1.5 4.05 to win 3 (-135) *
MIN/COL U1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)
NJ/BUF U1.5 3 to win 2 (-150)
ANA/SJS O1.5 2 to win 2.2 (+110)

YTD (17-10): +8.95u

Horrible day. Not only in hockey but all sports. Gotta come back strong.

TheDonger · 12-01-13, 05:38 PM

Sry for the late pick:

DAL/EDM U1.5 2.2 to win 2 (-110)

TheDonger · 12-01-13, 06:50 PM

Too bad I came in late, would of definatly bet on the OTT/DET U1.5. Oh well, still 1-0.

November result
November was my first month betting by own pick on SBR. I used to only tail other people picks. I went 17-10 with a result of +8.95u. I'm using some metrics and won't touch my system until the end of December to get a better sample (even if it's very small). I have a good idea of what I can do to increase the system profit. The only small thing I will do is bet only on under for the next month. My system is much better at finding those then finding over (0-2).

1/12/2013
DAL/EDM U1.5 2.2 to win 2 (-110)

YTD (18-10): +10.95u

easyliving · 12-02-13, 03:27 PM

solid run so far

TheDonger · 12-02-13, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by easyliving

solid run so far

Thanks, I'm watching the line on NJD/MTL. Too expensive ATM, might shop around. Maybe a play on PHI/MIN no made my mind yet.

TheDonger · 12-02-13, 04:35 PM

Todays pick :

MTL/NJD U1.5 3.4 to win 2 (-170) *
STL/LAK O1.5 2 to win 2.4 (+120) **

* My line is expensive, you can get it for -155 if you shop around. MTL is the team that give the less goal in first period, Brodeur always play good game vs MTL (his hometown). If my line wasn't that expensive I would make it a premium pick.

** I know I said I would stay away from over, but this is a good spot. STL scores in average a little more then a 1 goal in first period and LAK usually come out strong. I think this is a 50/50 situation and we get some value with the +120.

I have alot of money over NHL/NFL/NBA/NCAAB you can check my spreadsheet if you're interrested.

TheDonger · 12-02-13, 11:17 PM

2/12/2013

MTL/NJD U1.5 3.4 to win 2 (-170)
STL/LAK O1.5 2 to win 2.4 (+120)

Second day of the month, second sweep of the month.

This month	3-0	+6.40
November	17-10	+8.95
Total 2013-2014	20-10	+15.35

TheDonger · 12-03-13, 10:54 AM

Great card tonight, I'm working on at least 3 games. I'll try be selective and extend our sweep streak to 3.

TheDonger · 12-03-13, 03:20 PM

TB/CLB U1.5 2.5 to win 2 (-125)
LAK/ANA O1.5 2 to win 2.4 (+120)
SJS/TOR O1.5 2.1 to win 2 (-105)*

Again, I know that I said I would stay away from over. But we have two great spot.

-SJS is the #1 in 1st period GF. They are visiting TOR and this should be a very physical game. I expect lots of PP and open action. Eastern team usually struggle vs Western and I wouldn't be surprise to see a 2-0 shark after the first.
*I'm watching the line trend. I might be greedy but I feel like I can get something better. It's up to you.

-ANA and LAK are two teams that have incredible offence skills and always come out strong. They both are in the top 5 of the league for GF in 1st period. If my bookie had the option, I would even throw in half a unit for O2.5 if I could get +270 or more. Should be a brawl! Also, according to my information, we might see LAK Martin Jones makes his NHL debut. I don't want to wait this to be confirmed and line to change. But having his NHL debut vs anaheim should be pretty brutal.

TheDonger · 12-03-13, 04:11 PM

If some people do arb I just notice that TB/CLB U1.5 2.5 to win 2 (-125) can easily be arb wtih pinnacle +136 for 2.5% profit.